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Success and Failure Rates of Top MLB Prospects

Over the last decade, Major League Baseball organizations have treated top prospects as their most valuable commodity. They are inexpensive (at least for the first six or seven years) and they can produce genuine star players. But of course they can also give rise to failure, lots and lots of failure. Every organization has several prospects that tantalize with scouting reports of potential success, but it seems like they often disappoint. Failure of top prospects is extremely common. At the same time, many top prospects become good, or even great players. So, based on historical precedent, what can we expect from various kinds of highly regarded prospects?

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