FanPost

2011 White Sox Marcel Projections

Tom Tango released his Marcel projections today and they are now up on FanGraphs. Being the numbers-guy that I am, I conveniently converted the rate stats from the Marcel projections into WAR.

Unfortunately, since I'm lazy, I used the playing time and fielding numbers from my earlier cumulative projections that I posted here about a month ago. So technically, these aren't the actual WAR numbers based on Marcel projections. I did have a slight say in them. But in the end, the rate numbers are what we're looking for here. Besides, is Gordon Beckham really going to get only 490 PAs this upcoming year like Marcel says? That's not happening on my watch.

According to these projections, the average league FIP is 4.09, average wOBA is .323, and average runs/game is 4.44. Those are the numbers I used in converting the rate stats into WAR values.

Marcelhitters_medium

Marcelpitchers_medium

Google Docs Spreadsheet

If the replacement level is roughly 48 wins, then these projections tell me that the White Sox are on their way to a ~92 win season (48 + 43.7). Marcel is one of the more simple projection systems and is meant to set a baseline for player performance. Therefore, you can almost take this as somewhat of a worst-case scenario projection system. It's not meant to be the most accurate, but it has been in the past.

SouthSideSox is a community driven site. As such, users are able to express their thoughts and opinions in a FanPost, such as this one, which represents the views of this particular fan, but not necessarily the entire community or SouthSideSox editors.

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