DISCUSSION: Mark Buehrle, could he make the HOF?

by phan8787 on Mar 10, 2011 1:53 PM CST

Before I am lambasted for being overly optimistic, ridiculous, or plain crazy, I'd like to say something. I really don't know, at first look I'd say there's no way, but then I started thinking about it.

The case for:

He's in some elite clubs, like those with a no-hitter and perfect game.
World Series title
He is the only major league pitcher to win multiple gold gloves and have multiple no hitters (apparently). I might venture to guess he's also the only or one of a minority of pitchers to win a gold glove in the same year he threw a perfect game.
He has the record for most consecutive batters retired.
His consistent ability to throw over 200 innings, and durability, is unmatched, as defined by consecutive 200+ IP seasons.

Mark Buehrle [3.85], 10 seasons, 2001-10

Active Leaders among top 10 career IP (Buehrle is 11th, but is 2 yrs. younger than Halladay, the next youngest on the top 10) [Career ERA in brackets after name]

Livan Hernandez [4.39], 8 seasons, 2000-07 (he fell short of 200 by one out in '99, so if you count '98-'07 he ties Buehrle with 10 seasons)
Jamie Moyer [4.24], 6 seasons, 2001-06
Javier Vazquez [4.26], 5 seasons, 2005-09 (he fell short of 200IP only in 2004 with 198, so if rounded up it would be 10 seasons, 2000-09)
Roy Halladay [3.32], 5 seasons, 2006-10 (Above Suppan because he has more 200IP seasons, 7 v. 6., plus a better career ERA)
Jeff Suppan [4.69], 5 seasons, 1999-2003
Andy Pettite [3.88], 4 seasons, 2005-08 (Placed above Hudson by having more 200IP seasons overall, 10 v. 7)
Tim Hudson [3.42], 4 seasons, 2000-03
Tim Wakefield [4.38], 3 seasons, 1996-98
Kevin Millwood [4.11], 2 seasons (twice), 1999-2000 & 2002-03
Derek Lowe [3.85], 2 seasons (twice), 2003-04, 2005-06, (I put him under Millwood because Lowe has less IP overall despite being 2 years older, 35 v. 37 and 2505IP v. 2328.2)

Other notable players for comparison's sake:
- Greg Maddux [3.16], 14 seasons, 1988-2001
- Steve Carlton [3.22], 13 seasons, 1968-80
- Tom Seaver [2.86], 13 seasons, 1967-79
- Bert Blyvelen [3.31], 10 seasons, 1971-80
- Tom Glavine [3.54], 7 seasons, 1996-2002
- Barry Zito [3.86], 6 seasons, 2001-06
- Nolan Ryan [3.19], 5 seasons, 1976-80
- C.C. Sabathia [3.57], 4 seasons, 2007-10

His defensive gem last year was enough to create the "Buehrle meter", the standard by which all "web gems" were judged. While unofficial, this is unprecedented despite web gems existing for ten years. I think that is significant, albeit less so, but it definitely polarizes Buehrle, and may stick in minds of writers.
Of course other arguments are welcomed

The case against:

A very high career ERA (3.85)
No Cy Young
No season with 20 wins or more
Not a dominant strikeout pitcher
Not really considered the best pitcher or most dominant in the game for his time

He doesn't have statistical dominance and would certainly lose the numbers game, however his defensive abilities and intangibles are really unique for a pitcher of our era, coupled with a no hitter and perfect game, I also can't count him out. What does everyone think? If you have better examples put them in!

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Comments

B-R lists two of his comparables as Glavine and Pettitte; if he pitches to 40 and keeps it generally together, he could get in

http://palehosepariah.wordpress.com/2010/04/02/buehrles-place-in-sox-history/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mark-buehrle-and-the-hall-of-fame/

a VERY AVERAGE Sox Machine refugee

by big_fun on Mar 10, 2011 2:20 PM CST reply actions

from fangraphs

Joe West must adore him.

brndnprkns: I'm pretty sure the "badass" value of your life is closer to Gigli than The Dark Knight

by whitesoxmatt on Mar 11, 2011 10:36 AM CST up reply actions

Yeah I feel you, but man just those GGs and perfect game/no hitter stat, having never been done before, really blew me away. I say if he gets another no hitter he’ll be in. But we all know how likely that is… But as for right now I’m still on the fence, leaning towards no

by phan8787 on Mar 10, 2011 2:53 PM CST reply actions

"but we all know how likely that is..."

it’s an odd-year, so some time this season.

and then the playoffs can be kissed goodbye.

I love seasons too. That's why I live in a place that skips the shitty ones.

by thatshortkid on Mar 10, 2011 7:05 PM CST up reply actions

according to Bill James he has a .02 chance of getting to 300 wins.

and his hall of fame monitor has Buehrle with 25 points, where as a score of 100 is pretty much HoF levels. Frank Thomas has a 121 for his career for example.

I think he needs 8-10 more years without much of a drop off in production to warrant serious consideration, which is possible since he isn’t a power fastball type guy, but unlikely since he has been talking about retiring for a few seasons already.

Ask me again when he is still pitching at 40.

this game is crack cocaine soaked in heroin, rolled in meth-amphetamine, then baked into a double dutch chocolate fudge brownie.- Shoeless In SC on BMO

by e-gus on Mar 10, 2011 3:44 PM CST reply actions

e-gus took the words out of my fingers

i think he’ll be more than happy to retire than hang around into his 40’s

-Jeeves The I in Team

by jeeves on Mar 10, 2011 5:57 PM CST up reply actions

hall of the very good

which is not a bad place to be either

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Highly underrated, Mark Kotsay became the best defensive designated hitter in American League history in 2010.

by onlysoxfaninbasel on Mar 10, 2011 4:09 PM CST reply actions

This is where he's at right now.

If he continues with his career norms for another 5 years, he should be at the very least in the conversation. Yes, 3.85 is fairly high. But the Perfecto and the Nono should offset those to some degree. Probably the deciding factor will be his Gold Glove count and his 200+ IP streak. I know he’s got a decade of 200+ IP. how many Gold Gloves does he have?

by Doshi on Mar 11, 2011 9:12 AM CST up reply actions

As Mr. McMahon would say.... no chance in hell

Kenwo4life=ratings

by KenWo4LiFe on Mar 10, 2011 4:13 PM CST reply actions

as frank thomas would say... no doubt about it.

"when the seagulls follow the trawler, it's because they think sardines will be thrown into the sea." ~~cantona

by BuehrleMan on Mar 10, 2011 4:24 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs

Of course you are.

"It's just strafing runs in my underwear before my first cup of coffee."

by winningugly on Mar 10, 2011 5:32 PM CST up reply actions

anything is possible

If is is one handed shitting. by winningugly

by mick10 on Mar 10, 2011 6:35 PM CST up reply actions

Thank you

Just as park adjustment and other “luck” stats are being thrown around like they’re real, achieved stats, I’m sure that in 10 years, we will routinely talking about a talent-adjusted stat that would normalize Buehrle’s numbers with those of truly great pitchers.

by TasteeFreeze on Mar 12, 2011 7:48 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Doubtful

by 815Sox on Mar 10, 2011 4:22 PM CST reply actions

All those things you described against his case...

are things that get people in the HoF, collectively.

He’d have to pitch at this level for a while longer. His best bet, sadly, would be to go to the senior circuit and pitch there. He could feasibly achieve low 3 ERAs for many more years there, and if he were on a good offensive team, challenge the 20 win mark every season.

While his ERA doesn’t look great compared to other HoFer’s, his ERA+ for his career is 120. He has achieved almost 50 WAR, so I’d say if he keeps this up until his late 30’s, he’s a very good bet to get in. Right now? No.

Take your whosh like a man, dammit. - RWShow

White Sox Baseball:
We’re so expensive, we force Christians to steal. - blackoutsox

by Shoeless In SC on Mar 10, 2011 7:13 PM CST reply actions

I know that’s how most people get in, that’s the whole idea, could he be a dark horse nontraditional inductee? There are quite a few of them. I think people downplay how awesome it is to have a 10 straight seasons of 200+ innings in the modern era, and for guys his age he’s pretty unmatched. Is that a big deal? Maybe not, but I think it warrants some real consideration, at least more than there has been.

by phan8787 on Mar 10, 2011 8:50 PM CST up reply actions

no

this game is crack cocaine soaked in heroin, rolled in meth-amphetamine, then baked into a double dutch chocolate fudge brownie.- Shoeless In SC on BMO

by e-gus on Mar 10, 2011 9:02 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah, I realize all of the numbers aren’t there, like ERA, 300 wins, but his merit comes from unique accomplishments like consecutive 200 inning seasons, his defensive abilities, his perfect game and no hitter plus gold gloves. HOF is about the numbers, but also has a place for players that have less tangible abilities. That said, he hasn’t been an All Star all that much. Those HOF tabulations be damned, some first balloters don’t come close to making it by their standards (like Ozzie Smith). The pessimist in me screams foul, since it just doesn’t make sense. But there’s just this nagging feeling that history just might smile on 56 when its all said and done. He’d have to wait a real long time, but hey, crazier things have happened.

by phan8787 on Mar 10, 2011 8:38 PM CST reply actions

ozzie smith was the best defensive shortstop ever

"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"

by U-God on Mar 10, 2011 9:06 PM CST up reply actions

buehrle needs to incorporate the jump-throw

into his fielding, thus ensuring he has a bunch more gold gloves to strengthen his case.

by craigws on Mar 10, 2011 10:10 PM CST up reply actions

He'd have to move to the NL, too, where he can swing the bat.

Take your whosh like a man, dammit. - RWShow

White Sox Baseball:
We’re so expensive, we force Christians to steal. - blackoutsox

by Shoeless In SC on Mar 11, 2011 8:09 AM CST up reply actions

now we're talking!

Hope he’s not writing the 2011 White Sox Anal too. -Sox Machine

by Jack M on Mar 11, 2011 9:10 AM CST up reply actions

he's certainly shown the ability against the brewers

I hope Kotsay gets hit by a dump truck and slips into a coma where he is stuck forever in Baseball purgatory having to bat against a three-headed, six-armed Lefty Hydra consisting of Billy Wagner, Damaso Marte, and Randy Johnson. - Shoeless In SC

by blackoutsox on Mar 11, 2011 1:18 PM CST up reply actions