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The Sox will have a closer, and that's not bad

As far as anybody can tell, Ozzie Guillen has it in mind to have a designated closer in his bullpen - even if he doesn't quite know who it will be yet:

"Thornton is a personal opinion," Guillen said. "As a setup man, there’s not one better than him. There’s one thing in my mind, give him a new job [as closer] or keep him what he was and put [Chris] Sale [as closer]. But I got to listen to my pitching coach, I got to listen to what [GM] Kenny [Williams] wants, the coaching staff has an opinion.

"I can go with either one. I don’t worry about any of those guys. No matter what I pick, I’m going to pick a good one. And that’s why I don’t worry about who is going to be out there."

I've basically abandoned my dreams of seeing Guillen run a closerless bullpen this season, but it's comforting to know that by MLB manager standards, he's still more progressive than most when it comes to the late innings.

The present study in contrast: Ron Washington, who may have to deal with a ninth-inning vacancy if he allows Neftali Feliz to move into the rotation. His reaction to the "crisis" leads me to believe that Guillen might just own a flying car.

Star-divide

Washington basically responds by making a demand of his general manager:

"I have confidence in Jon Daniels and our scouts," Washington said Tuesday morning. "If [Feliz is starting], I’m 100 percent sure they’ll go out there and find somebody to close ballgames down for us." [...]

"Who do we have in our bullpen that’s closed ballgames down?" Washington said, knowing that Feliz is the only pitcher on the roster with a double-digit career saves total. "We ain’t talking about ‘might be able to.’ This ain’t about ‘might be able to close a ballgame down.’ We need somebody that’s bona fide to close ballgames down. But, like I said, if we need to stay in-house, we’ll figure that out."

It absolutely must be noted that Feliz had TWO WHOLE SAVES to his name last year when Washington named him the closer, replacing one-season closer Frank Francisco in the process. His Rangers ended up making it to the World Series. So here you have a manager who knows that closers aren't permanent and don't have to be grizzled veterans, except ... well, he doesn't know. He didn't learn from himself.

Washington isn't alone, either. Matt Capps is a living, breathing symbol of closer panic in Minnesota. Bill Smith traded their most tradeable prospect to acquire him, solving a problem that really wasn't one. Then they offered him arbitration (one year, $7.15 million), which means Capps will make more money than Thornton will in either year of his new contract.

The funny part: Capps might not even be closing, so that raises the question - why sign Capps for money that could have been used on retaining, say, both Jesse Crain and Jon Rauch? Because Joe Nathan isn't a sure bet, that's why. Nathan is Plan A for closing, but he's coming off Tommy John surgery, so they can't bet the farm on a full rebound season. Capps is a proven closer behind the proven closer, meaning the Twins have spent $18 million just so they will be covered by a proven closer one way or another. Depending on how you shuffle the money around, the Twins may have valued an auxiliary closer over a bona fide shortstop, which is nuts.

These are good teams with good farm systems, too. We're not talking about the Royals, who are looking for a left-handed reliever because Dayton Moore decided to let the Twins have his only decent one. These are teams with strong management and deep farm systems. The Twins have been successful for an entire decade, and the Rangers are now poised for a similar run. But for one reason or another, members in their leadership ranks can't stand the thought of having a question mark in the ninth inning, even if they survived -- nay, succeeded -- under the same conditions just months before.

Star-divide

That brings us back to Guillen, who has navigated through several MASSIVE CLOSER PROBLEMS with a steady hand. Back in 2004, he inherited proven closer and budding head case Billy Koch, and turned to Shingo Takatsu (no big-league experience. When the league figured out Mr. Zero, Guillen saw a closer in Dustin Hermanson (half-season of closing). When Hermanson's back gave out, Bobby Jenks carried the load.

Guillen guided Jenks through numerous mini-emergencies until he became too expensive, and when that day arrived, he had no problems letting Kenny Williams cut ties with his only proven option, with no weathered face to take his place.

When you think about it, Guillen has helped save the Sox quite a bit of money over his seven years. It's never been more apparent than this past offseason. By going with Thornton or Sale (and not demanding to retain Jenks or the previously proven Putz), he gave Kenny Williams about $10 million to play with. He put $5.5 million back in the bullpen by signing Jesse Crain and Will Ohman, and the rest could contribute to the mountain of money needed to sign Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski.

The results might not be perfectly efficient. Crain and Ohman's contracts look like they're each a year too long, and Thornton might be reserved for ninth-inning leads that never get to him when he could have been used earlier. But hey, we can't expect a team to abandon all MLB norms. If bad teams with zero hope don't experiment, contenders certainly aren't going to reinvent management methods unnecessarily.

The alternative isn't awful, especially when comparing the Sox to other teams. Guillen might not be rocking the boat, but at least he can give his co-workers wiggle room.

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i dont think Thornton will be held out before the ninth if he is needed

I just can’t see it. I’m not too worried about this however. Ozzie is a wizard in managing pitchers and the bullpen. Hopefully Crain can get the ball to Thornton in close games

I hope Kotsay gets hit by a dump truck and slips into a coma where he is stuck forever in Baseball purgatory having to bat against a three-headed, six-armed Lefty Hydra consisting of Billy Wagner, Damaso Marte, and Randy Johnson. - Shoeless In SC

by blackoutsox on Mar 16, 2011 1:52 AM CDT reply actions  

Bobby Jenks disagrees.

He’s the disgruntled layoff. Obviously more reliable.

"And he rips one into left! Konerko, grand slam!" —Joe Buck, 23 Oct 2005. Yes, I have had the date wrong for this long.

by mikecws91 on Mar 16, 2011 3:13 AM CDT up reply actions  

Maybe the pendulum is beginning to swing

away from the idea of a designated closer, Texas and Minnesota notwithstanding. It will be interesting to see in five years how MLB teams are organizing their bullpens. If $$$ gets tight, it gets increasing difficult to justify a large investment in a role having questionable value.

NISFW (now it's safe for work!)

by greenlight on Mar 16, 2011 8:20 AM CDT reply actions  

I really enjoyed this, Jim.

Kudos for Krodos.

Your 2011 Chicago White Sox: Donkey Kong!!!

by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Mar 16, 2011 8:49 AM CDT reply actions  

yesss

Hope he’s not writing the 2011 White Sox Anal too. -Sox Machine

by Jack M on Mar 16, 2011 9:13 AM CDT up reply actions  

I'm the pater familias!

"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"

by U-God on Mar 16, 2011 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

But I t'ought you was hit by a train

(Nice article, Jim. I’d rather have Thornton as a closer, and see how Sale would adapt to the rotation.)

Our manager wears 13, we were supposedly cursed, and we wear black. Let's play.

by ChiSoxRox on Mar 16, 2011 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Why no mention of Santos?

Everything else makes sense though.

Sabermetrics hurt my head, just give me the facts.

by CATDADDY47 on Mar 16, 2011 8:55 AM CDT reply actions  

I have always maintained

that Guillen has out paced most managers in term of opinions on high leverage relief and closing.
He just didn’t know it.

Does UZR take into consideration the JumpThrow?

by Tdogg on Mar 16, 2011 9:02 AM CDT reply actions  

You are maintaining well.

Jared Mitchell: GAMBARIMASU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by winningugly on Mar 16, 2011 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions  

You could use some maintenance.

"We know where your thumb is." - winningugly

by RWShow on Mar 16, 2011 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions  

Maintain some respect.

Jared Mitchell: GAMBARIMASU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by winningugly on Mar 16, 2011 9:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

This is a very mick-esque comment.

Maintain your composure. :-)

"We know where your thumb is." - winningugly

by RWShow on Mar 16, 2011 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions  

LOL.

Oh, if I’m being compared to the Ultimate Curmudgeon I’ve wandered into the wrong neighborhood.

Jared Mitchell: GAMBARIMASU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by winningugly on Mar 16, 2011 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions  

eat some shit

If is is one handed shitting. by winningugly

by mick10 on Mar 16, 2011 5:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

more like a massive overhaul

The bases were drunk, and I painted the black with my best yakker. But blue squeezed me, and I went full. I came back with my heater, but the stick flares one the other way and chalk flies for two bases. Three earnies! Next thing I know, skipper hooks me and I'm sipping suds with the clubby

by moroots on Mar 16, 2011 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions  

Et tu, Mo?

Jared Mitchell: GAMBARIMASU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by winningugly on Mar 16, 2011 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

i should talk. my dr says i need a backiotomy

The bases were drunk, and I painted the black with my best yakker. But blue squeezed me, and I went full. I came back with my heater, but the stick flares one the other way and chalk flies for two bases. Three earnies! Next thing I know, skipper hooks me and I'm sipping suds with the clubby

by moroots on Mar 16, 2011 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

90s swin suit are unflattering

"Sportsmanship is just loser talk for losing."

by boyonthedock on Mar 16, 2011 10:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

How excited must HSA be?

White Sox using their regular starting line up vs. Lincecum, in a game that doesn’t matter so she can root for both sides..

by Grinder in Training on Mar 16, 2011 9:19 AM CDT reply actions  

Joe Posnanski had an article

on closers back in January or so. He pointed out that, in 2010, teams with a lead going into the 9th won over 95% of the time. In 1952, before teams used closers, they still won over 95% of the time with a lead going into the 9th. It was a well-articulated piece on why closers are the most overrated (and overpayed) players in the game.

by marv3mania on Mar 16, 2011 9:54 AM CDT reply actions  

not really all that well-reasoned.

the better inquiry would have been whether, when teams began using closers, they gained an advantage over their competitors who did not adopt that strategy. simply comparing when everyone wasn’t doing it to when everyone was doesn’t tell us much.

by larry on Mar 16, 2011 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions  

I'm confused. What's really changed from before 1952 to after?

Take your whosh like a man, dammit. - RWShow

White Sox Baseball:
We’re so expensive, we force Christians to steal. - blackoutsox

by Shoeless In SC on Mar 16, 2011 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions  

power numbers for one thing

"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"

by U-God on Mar 16, 2011 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions  

Nevermind. I read that as pre-1952 was 95% and 1952-2010 was 95%. Reading fail.

I was thinking in terms of baseball pre-1952 and baseball post-1952. But I think you could use data from pre-1952 compared to data from 1952 to say, 1970 (whenever the dead-ball era was still in existence). But larry’s partially right, i think, in that you can’t compare data from 1952 to data from 2010. For one reason, it’s one year vs one year. lots of variation. For another, baseball in 1952 is different from baseball in 2010.

Take your whosh like a man, dammit. - RWShow

White Sox Baseball:
We’re so expensive, we force Christians to steal. - blackoutsox

by Shoeless In SC on Mar 16, 2011 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

World Series winners without a designated closer?

Going back 25 years, the only team to win the World Series without an established closer was the ‘86 Mets. They had Jesse Orosco with 21 saves and Roger McDowell with 22. You could say the ’88 Dodgers, but Jay Howell (21) and Alejandro Pena (12) but after that it’s hard to make a case for any other team. Even the Nasty Boys had Randy Myers as the true closer with 31 saves to Dibble’s 11.
So yes, it absolutely does matter having a designated closer… relief pitchers today need to know their role; what inning(s) their going to pitch; what situations they are going to be brought in.

by jpoljak on Mar 16, 2011 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

not that they wouldn't have won

it makes the already arduous task of wining a world series easier if everyone in the bullpen knows their responsibility and there is one person tabbed as the closer.

by jpoljak on Mar 16, 2011 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

2006 cardinals used wainwright in the postseason as a closer

as opposed to isringhausen who they had used all season.

2005 goes without saying.

2003 marlins used braden looper all season and switched to ugueth urbina in the postseason.

"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"

by U-God on Mar 16, 2011 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Opening day lineup?

I think so, and I like.

2011 WhiteSox Baseball: we're all in

by OznCoop on Mar 16, 2011 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions  

Star power today.

HSA may have to play hooky.

Jared Mitchell: GAMBARIMASU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by winningugly on Mar 16, 2011 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions  

among other sorts of 'playing' she will be doing with the chocotacohipsterwunderkind on the mound....

Let’s just say I doubt she will be queen of the castle by the 3rd inning.

(I am hoping to make it to the 5th myself)

"juicy delicious meats in my mouth-hole"- HSA

by DrEmilioLizardo on Mar 16, 2011 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Pierzynski's missing

Not that I necessarily want him to hit, but I assume he has to

by WSO on Mar 16, 2011 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions  

naw Burls is gonna be catchin for himself,

he’s gotten a lot of experience over the years from catching those honorary first pitches

2011 WhiteSox Baseball: we're all in

by OznCoop on Mar 16, 2011 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions  

Even when you slot in AJ between Q and Alexei, the lineup feels light on lefties.

Though I suppose if you consider Q’s reverse platoon splits, it’s actually pretty even. Still, seeing it like this makes me lean even more in favor of Alejandro for the 4th OF spot.

"I'm the Chicago man. I'm vital in Chicago." -Willy Ohman, Act 1

by mechanical turk on Mar 16, 2011 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

where's the catcher?

YOU CAN FIND ME AT: Second City Hockey and South Side Sox
I'm married to The Chicago White Sox, Loving The Chicago Blackhawks!
A WOMAN OF CHICAGO...

by pierzynskirules on Mar 16, 2011 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

ugh uncle WU

FOLLOW ME TO: Second City Hockey and South Side Sox, A CHICAGO WOMAN FOREVER.....
I'm married to The Chicago White Sox, Loving The Chicago Blackhawks!

by pierzynskirules on Mar 16, 2011 9:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

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