SB Nation Chicago Editor's Pick
The Wisdom of Crowds: Prognosticators Mixed on Sox' AL Central Title Chances
by madvillian on Mar 29, 2011 4:47 PM CDT
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It's that time of year, when everyone who's anyone predicts what's gonna shake down in the baseball season.
Let us take a look around the 'net to see what the conventional wisdom on the Sox' season has to say: from logical and scientific method based computer based simulations to more, how do you say -- "bullshit type" predictions like those of John Kruk and Jon "I like to use batting average and errors as metrics" Heyman.
It's 2011 -- bow down to your Computer Overlords.
PECOTA: The notoriously Sox pessimistic Baseball Prospectus system predicts a 3rd place finish with 83.6 wins on average. However, PECOTA regresses heavily to the mean and it rates the Twins, Tigers and Sox at virtually even odds to take the division.
Diamond Mind: Diamond Mind simulates the season thousands of times using whatever projections you plug in. While not quite the juggernaut of hardcore sims it used to be the program still has its share of adherents in the sabermetric community. Using the PECOTA predictions inside Diamond Mind the Sox are predicted again in 3rd with 83.1 wins. Using "Oliver" projections (THTs version of Marcel) the Sox come out at 82.9 wins, again in 3rd. Oliver likes the Twins quite a bit, predicting 86 wins for them and a fairly easy division crown. Using the Bill James projections has the Sox at 81.5 wins, again in 3rd with the Twins in 1st. See all the Diamond Mind predictions over at Replacement Level Yankees Blog.
ZIPS and Dan Szymborski of ESPN, BTF: ZIPS likes the White Sox and Szymborski picks the Sox to win the central in his ESPN preview. (Insider Only)
It's 2011 -- Computer Overlords Haven't Eradicated Pundits Quite Yet
THBs: Starting with the folks over at The Hardball Times, who are smart, saber inclined folks. Survey says: White Sox win the central. Be sure to check out their detailed season preview on the Sox.
ESPN -- Kruk says "They still have four really good pitchers, Their bullpen is young, but very talented, great right and left guys who can strike people out. They’re going to have unbelievable power in their lineup."
Forget some of the more pessimistic computer projections, that's a horrible reverse jinx if I've ever seen one. Shitbirds. FWIW, Orel Hershiser also likes the Sox to take the division.
CNNSI / SI -- Jon Heyman, head in the sand on stats guy, also likes the Sox to win the division. He also has Puster Posey winning the NL MVP. Yikes. More SI predictions.
Random Sports Writers: here, here, here, here, here, and here.
What does it all mean?
It's looking like a great year to be a fan of the Sox, Tigers and Twins. The AL Central is up for grabs -- as usual. Most of the computer projections don't factor perhaps the Sox' biggest asset: their training staff and Don Cooper's ability to keep their pitchers healthy. Luck will play a role, as it always does. The eventual division winner likely won't be crowned until late September.
The best prediction? Perhaps yet another play in game.
SouthSideSox is a community driven site. As such, users are able to express their thoughts and opinions in a FanPost, such as this one, which represents the views of this particular fan, but not necessarily the entire community or SouthSideSox editors.
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espn mag at the barbershop says the white sox have the easiest schedule in the AL
based on one of the various projection systems with detroit just behind, and it also stated the season will get easier as it goes along, with march/april being the toughest and september being the easiest.
i assume they edge out detroit because of the 6 games vs the cubs.
Or maybe he was more like a 25 cent gumball after a big dinner out: screw it, why not? -colintj
Over at TwinkieTown some guy has a look at the relative schedules of the Twins and Sox.
It’s a pretty decent little read.
I’m in love! i found a replacement for Freddy!
by KenWo4LiFe on Mar 8, 2011
by South Side Expat on Mar 29, 2011 6:24 PM CDT up reply actions
they are pretty confident over there
I have also been receiving tons of shit talking from twins fans this year. I do not think they realize how much we have improved.
I wonder if that's good or bad, based on how the White Sox have started lately.
Good that we get the tough games out of the way (that we would probably lose anyway if we started out slow as we usually do) so we can finish strong with the easy schedule when we’re hot.
OR
Bad in that we need the early games to be easy because we start out slow, and could use the easy wins later in the year when the team (usually) is playing better baseball.
Take your whosh like a man, dammit. - RWShow
White Sox Baseball:
We’re so expensive, we force Christians to steal. - blackoutsox
by Shoeless In SC on Mar 29, 2011 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions
"if we started out slow as we usually do"
People keep saying this. Its not true. They had a bad April last year. 9 straight previous years of a better than .500 record in April.
Does UZR take into consideration the JumpThrow?
by Tdogg on Mar 29, 2011 10:07 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I needed a clearly or a wink in there I guess. Was trying to be sarcastic.
We’ve discussed this topic before.
http://www.southsidesox.com/2010/6/4/1500149/can-it-be-that-it-was-all-so-simple#39021470
http://www.southsidesox.com/2010/5/4/1458562/what-are-the-sergio-santos-rules#36803788
I was in a rather blunt way pointing out this tired meme around here.
Alexei and A.J. are the only two that have more than one season’s data in which I can see a depreciable value in April. I think their struggles get magnified around here and extrapolated to the rest of the team. Even Carl did a comic on the white sox early offensive struggles a while back.
Take your whosh like a man, dammit. - RWShow
White Sox Baseball:
We’re so expensive, we force Christians to steal. - blackoutsox
by Shoeless In SC on Mar 30, 2011 12:11 AM CDT up reply actions
I know we go round and round Shoe sometimes
but I don’t get the reference to offensive struggles when the topic is clearly schedule and wins vs losses.
You seem to imply the early offensive struggles have equaled losses in April in the past. Maybe I’m just misreading you.
Does UZR take into consideration the JumpThrow?
I think you're misreading me.
Do a search on “slow, start” and “April” and you’ll see more than a few people here think the White Sox (some because of Ozzie) get off to slow starts. Aside from last year, it hasn’t really been reflected in the W/L colums. The fact is, (the best I can see) the only people getting off to a slow start in April over their careers are A.J. and Alexei. Last year Kotsay and Beckham did, but that’s a small sample of the whole as it was their first April with the team.
I was being facetious. Came across as too serious when trying to point out this meme around here. It was a poor attempt at a whosh trap.
Take your whosh like a man, dammit. - RWShow
White Sox Baseball:
We’re so expensive, we force Christians to steal. - blackoutsox
by Shoeless In SC on Mar 30, 2011 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions
kotsay maintained his slow start throughout the season.
nice to have an even-keel veteran like that to rely on.
by craigws on Mar 30, 2011 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I almost linked you in the "here" section at the end. you came up in a google blog search for "2011 predictions"
KenWo4Life = SEO
so he is!
right at the bottom of the front page
I hope Kotsay gets hit by a dump truck and slips into a coma where he is stuck forever in Baseball purgatory having to bat against a three-headed, six-armed Lefty Hydra consisting of Billy Wagner, Damaso Marte, and Randy Johnson. - Shoeless In SC
Sporting News' baseball preview issue had us winning the division as well
Our manager wears 13, we were supposedly cursed, and we wear black. Let's play.
SI overall has us finishing 3rd
by a few games. yanks winning the wild card.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
My mother-in-law has yet to move in with us.
Ba-dum-chhhhh.
Jared Mitchell: GAMBARIMASU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by winningugly on Mar 29, 2011 8:11 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I project that all projections will be different
Therefore they will all probably be wrong. Thanks for putting them all together so I can evaluate them at the all-star break
bobpuller lives
Its funny
with all the predictions of a 3 horse race I honestly feel like this year the White Sox will win the division comfortably. I just think they will score a lot more runs then predicted and I see a bit more uncertainty in the Twain than usual. So I guess add that to my bold statements. Sox win the division by 5+ games.
Does UZR take into consideration the JumpThrow?
5+ games???
Did you get laid this morning?
Take your whosh like a man, dammit. - RWShow
White Sox Baseball:
We’re so expensive, we force Christians to steal. - blackoutsox
by Shoeless In SC on Mar 30, 2011 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions
Well I am in a fantastic mood today
but no not from that. And yes I realize its a bold statement. But I stand by it.
Does UZR take into consideration the JumpThrow?
heh
Take your whosh like a man, dammit. - RWShow
White Sox Baseball:
We’re so expensive, we force Christians to steal. - blackoutsox
by Shoeless In SC on Mar 30, 2011 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions
There's a ton of White Sox love from the ESPN projections, actually.
AJ Pierzynski: You have to want to catch.
by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Mar 30, 2011 1:11 PM CDT reply actions
*Predictions, not projections.
Sorry, metric wonks.
AJ Pierzynski: You have to want to catch.
by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Mar 30, 2011 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions
~30/40 picking the sox as division champs
Jim Thome sponsor(s) this page.
Highly underrated, Mark Kotsay became the best defensive designated hitter in American League history in 2010.
by onlysoxfaninbasel on Mar 30, 2011 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Jerk.
I’m in love! i found a replacement for Freddy!
by KenWo4LiFe on Mar 8, 2011
by South Side Expat on Mar 30, 2011 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions
The kind of chicken I'm making tonight.
I’m in love! i found a replacement for Freddy!
by KenWo4LiFe on Mar 8, 2011
by South Side Expat on Mar 30, 2011 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions
was thinking that too, but our pitching regressed big time that year
not predicting that kind of regression this year..
Jim Thome sponsor(s) this page.
Highly underrated, Mark Kotsay became the best defensive designated hitter in American League history in 2010.
by onlysoxfaninbasel on Mar 30, 2011 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd love to have 2006's record in 2011
Take your whosh like a man, dammit. - RWShow
White Sox Baseball:
We’re so expensive, we force Christians to steal. - blackoutsox
by Shoeless In SC on Mar 30, 2011 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions
dees jeem caple keed, he pooty goo.
I love seasons too. That's why I live in a place that skips the shitty ones.
by thatshortkid on Mar 30, 2011 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Posey
What’s wrong with picking Posey for the NL MVP? He hit over .300 with 18 HRs in only 108 games last season. He hit .333 with a .427 OBP in the minors. That elite level of offensive production coming from a catcher makes you a contender for an MVP. Ask Joe Mauer.
The award is Pujols' until his software and hardware becomes obsolete
Take your whosh like a man, dammit. - RWShow
White Sox Baseball:
We’re so expensive, we force Christians to steal. - blackoutsox
by Shoeless In SC on Mar 30, 2011 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions
wu's hardware is his software now
I hope Kotsay gets hit by a dump truck and slips into a coma where he is stuck forever in Baseball purgatory having to bat against a three-headed, six-armed Lefty Hydra consisting of Billy Wagner, Damaso Marte, and Randy Johnson. - Shoeless In SC
by blackoutsox on Mar 30, 2011 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
this is going green, I can feel it.
Take your whosh like a man, dammit. - RWShow
White Sox Baseball:
We’re so expensive, we force Christians to steal. - blackoutsox
by Shoeless In SC on Mar 30, 2011 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Your face is going green.
Erm, what, no.
Your face is his software now.
Shit, that’s not right either. Eh, screw it.
AJ Pierzynski: You have to want to catch.
by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Mar 30, 2011 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions
This seems as good a place as any to put this.
http://predictionmachine.com/paulbessire/analysis/MLB2011.aspx
http://www.predictionmachine.com/Predictalator/Predictions/MLB2011.aspx?r=8616
Just as the Predictalator plays any individual game 50,000 before it’s actually played, it can also play every game 50,000 times before it’s actually played. That is what we have done for the 2011 MLB season. The actual regular season and playoff schedules have been played 50,000 times, allowing us to compute average records and the likelihoods of a team making the playoffs, winning the league pennant and bringing home the World Series trophy.
The Philadelphia Phillies win the World Series a league-high 21.5% of the time. The Boston Red Sox (19.7%), New York Yankees (12.7%), San Francisco Giants (9.6%) and Chicago White Sox (9.3%) follow the Phillies in championship likelihood. No other team has a greater than 5.4% chance of winning it all.
The Phillies, who project to win 96 games on average, are 79.5% likely to make the playoffs. Other teams that are more than 50% likely to make the playoffs include Boston (76.0%), New York Yankees (67.3%), Texas (65.0%), Chicago White Sox (61.2%), San Francisco (59.3%) and Colorado (50.8%). Together, those top seven teams win 83.1% of all titles. No other team wins the World Series more than 3.8% of the time.
It’s interesting reading, but it seems they like the White Sox. At least, more than the Tigers or Twins.
"I'm the Chicago man. I'm vital in Chicago." -Willy Ohman, Act 1
by mechanical turk on Mar 30, 2011 6:19 PM CDT reply actions
I had an erection re: Opening Day.
It’s gone. Math does that to me.
Jared Mitchell: GAMBARIMASU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
that's interesting, they have the white sox at 90 winson average, whatever projection system they are using must love the Sox
I"m curious as to which one they are using, or if they are using something like ELO.
i picture three forty-year olds
sitting around listening to mr blue sky eighty-seven times over whilst discussing baseball.
And wrestling.
AJ Pierzynski: You have to want to catch.
by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Mar 31, 2011 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions
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