FanPost

White Sox vs Mariners, May 6th Simulation

 

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the White Sox and the Mariners using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 12:15 AM)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Phil Humber Felix Hernandez SEA 62.19% 6.5 62.04% 6.33

 

1 SEA 2-1   51 CHA 7-2   101 SEA 9-7
2 SEA 3-2   52 CHA 7-4   102 SEA 12-1
3 SEA 1-0   53 SEA 8-3   103 CHA 10-4
4 CHA 2-1   54 CHA 7-3   104 CHA 9-8
5 SEA 4-3   55 SEA 7-5   105 CHA 10-0
6 SEA 3-1   56 CHA 6-0   106 SEA 12-2
7 SEA 2-0   57 CHA 7-1   107 SEA 11-4
8 CHA 3-2   58 SEA 9-1   108 CHA 9-7
9 SEA 3-0   59 SEA 9-2   109 CHA 10-6
10 SEA 4-1   60 CHA 7-5   110 SEA 12-0
11 CHA 1-0   61 SEA 9-0   111 CHA 11-2
12 SEA 4-2   62 CHA 7-6   112 CHA 11-3
13 CHA 3-1   63 SEA 8-4   113 CHA 10-5
14 SEA 4-0   64 CHA 8-2   114 SEA 13-1
15 CHA 4-3   65 CHA 8-3   115 SEA 10-6
16 SEA 5-4   66 SEA 9-3   116 SEA 11-5
17 CHA 4-2   67 SEA 8-7   117 SEA 13-0
18 CHA 2-0   68 CHA 7-0   118 SEA 13-3
19 SEA 5-1   69 SEA 8-5   119 SEA 12-5
20 SEA 5-2   70 SEA 10-1   120 SEA 12-3
21 SEA 5-0   71 CHA 8-1   121 SEA 12-4
22 CHA 4-1   72 CHA 8-4   122 SEA 13-2
23 SEA 5-3   73 SEA 10-2   123 CHA 11-4
24 CHA 3-0   74 SEA 10-0   124 CHA 11-1
25 SEA 6-1   75 CHA 8-5   125 CHA 10-7
26 CHA 5-4   76 SEA 8-6   126 SEA 14-1
27 CHA 5-3   77 SEA 9-4   127 CHA 11-5
28 SEA 6-0   78 CHA 9-1   128 SEA 10-9
29 CHA 5-2   79 CHA 9-3   129 CHA 12-2
30 SEA 6-2   80 CHA 9-2   130 CHA 12-3
31 SEA 6-5   81 SEA 10-3   131 SEA 11-6
32 SEA 6-3   82 CHA 8-0   132 CHA 11-6
33 CHA 5-1   83 CHA 8-6   133 CHA 12-4
34 SEA 7-1   84 SEA 11-1   134 CHA 10-8
35 CHA 4-0   85 SEA 9-5   135 SEA 10-7
36 SEA 7-0   86 CHA 8-7   136 SEA 10-8
37 SEA 6-4   87 CHA 9-4   137 CHA 11-0
38 SEA 7-2   88 SEA 10-4   138 CHA 12-0
39 CHA 6-3   89 SEA 11-0   139 CHA 12-1
40 CHA 6-4   90 SEA 11-3   140 SEA 13-5
41 CHA 6-2   91 CHA 9-5   141 CHA 11-7
42 CHA 6-5   92 SEA 11-2   142 SEA 14-2
43 CHA 6-1   93 SEA 9-8   143 CHA 12-5
44 SEA 7-3   94 CHA 10-2   144 CHA 13-2
45 SEA 8-1   95 CHA 10-3   145 CHA 13-3
46 CHA 5-0   96 CHA 9-0   146 CHA 12-6
47 SEA 8-0   97 CHA 10-1   147 SEA 14-0
48 SEA 7-4   98 SEA 9-6   148 CHA 10-9
49 SEA 8-2   99 CHA 9-6   149 SEA 13-4
50 SEA 7-6   100 SEA 10-5   150 CHA 13-1

 

White Sox Hitting Box Score

Name AB Hits H1 H2 H3 HR RBI BB SO wOBA BABIP
Juan Pierre 4.28 1.05 0.83 0.15 0.024 0.044 0.25 0.34 0.69 0.283 0.284
Gordon Beckham 4.22 0.93 0.60 0.26 0.017 0.055 0.30 0.22 0.95 0.261 0.273
Adam Dunn 3.95 0.80 0.46 0.22 0.004 0.114 0.35 0.48 1.36 0.284 0.275
Paul Konerko 4.00 0.95 0.64 0.19 0.006 0.109 0.39 0.29 0.83 0.290 0.274
Carlos Quentin 3.92 0.85 0.52 0.23 0.007 0.095 0.35 0.27 0.87 0.273 0.257
Alex Rios 3.86 0.95 0.64 0.23 0.021 0.052 0.29 0.20 0.76 0.282 0.293
A.J. Pierzynski 3.71 0.79 0.62 0.16 0.000 0.010 0.20 0.28 0.93 0.244 0.280
Alexi Ramirez 3.64 0.85 0.61 0.18 0.021 0.048 0.29 0.18 0.67 0.268 0.276
Mark Teahen 3.48 0.84 0.55 0.23 0.014 0.051 0.28 0.28 0.82 0.291 0.301

(Keep in mind lineups are best guesses)

Over/Under Guessing Guidelines:  Guess "over" or "under" on the five questions below.  You must also give confidence points to each guess.  The guess you have the most confidence in you give 5 points, then 4 points ... down to 1 point for the guess you have the least amount of confidence in.  So you must have a guess of 5,4,3,2,1.  If you get a guess correct you get the number of confidence points you wagered on that guess.  A perfect score would be 5+4+3+2+1=15 points.  Also guess a score from the table of likely scores.

Over/Under Questions:

A. Total runs scored: 6.5
B. Phil Humber hits plus walks allowed: 8.5
C. Felix Hernandez strikeouts: 6.5
D. Adam Dunn strikeouts: 1.5
E. White Sox bullpen number of pitches: 51.5

Sample Answer: 2AU 3BO, 5CO, 4DU, 1EU, #21 LAN 5-3

SouthSideSox is a community driven site. As such, users are able to express their thoughts and opinions in a FanPost, such as this one, which represents the views of this particular fan, but not necessarily the entire community or SouthSideSox editors.

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