Bad vibes abound with Sale's rocky start
I've had a thought rolling around in my head that I've been too frightened to put down in words, both because it could both lead me to ridicule and/or unnecessarily inspire further dread. But given that the similarities haven't ceased, it's time to workshop this idea:
Chris Sale is reminding me an awful lot of the 2008 version of Boone Logan.
Both pitchers are tall, wiry left-handed with odd arm slots and big fastball/slider combinations that left-handed hitters should find unhittable. "Should" is the operative word -- to use the parlance of Gameday, when lefties put the ball in play, outs aren't being recorded.
The overall numbers are much closer than everybody would like:
| Year | Guy | W | L | G | SV | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | Logan |
2 | 3 | 5.95 | 55 | 0 | 42.1 | 57 | 7 | 14 | 42 | 1.68 | 12.1 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 8.9 | 3.00 |
| 2011 | Sale | 2 | 0 | 7.15 | 11 | 1 | 11.1 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 1.765 | 11.9 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 10.3 | 2.60 |
And against lefties, they aren't much better.
| Split | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 Logan vs. LHB | 110 | 103 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 6.00 | .291 | .324 | .505 | .829 | .397 |
| 2011 Sale vs. LHP |
21 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2.33 | .313 | .450 | .438 | .888 | .556 |
Now, obviously there are major discrepancies. Sample size is one, if Sale's BABIP didn't tip you off. Pedigree is the other. Sale's a consensus first-round pick that probably should have gone higher, and Logan was a run-of-the-mill A-baller who parlayed spring training B-game success into an up-and-down major-league career (don't let your babies grow up to be right-handed).
And really, I wouldn't have drawn any connection between the two, had it not been triggered by a Brett Ballantini post from last week. That Sale has lost two ticks off his fastball so far hasn't helped, either.
Here's the paragraph from Ballantini's piece that stopped my brain:
Chris Sale has suffered a disastrous 2011 campaign so far, both on and off the field. Already embroiled in Stormwatch ’11: Closer Edition back on April 13, manager Ozzie Guillen was enraged at Sale for telling pitching coach Don Cooper he was ready to pitch after a career-high outing mere hours earlier (earning the win). Given that a key element of managing a successful staff is placing trust in your pitchers—without ignoring the blame Ozzie and Coop have to take for trusting a 22-year-old with more "stuff" than experience—it wasn’t a wise dip into bravado by Sale.
Just two weeks later, Sale’s woes on the mound had mounted, to the point that after nearly blowing a six-run lead in the ninth and forcing Guillen to call out closer Sergio Santos to nail a win down last night, the manager is calling Sale out as the disaster he is, injecting into his postgame comments a lecture about guys with great arms needing to learn how to throw strikes.
This took me back to 2008, when Boone Logan seemed to get it (1.05 WHIP, 1.95 ERA over 32 1/3 innings), before plummeting into Earth so hard, he could taste mantle. Prior to his demotion in August, he gave up 20 runs in the time it took him to record 24 outs.
There were numerous gut-check moments during Logan's plunge, from Don Cooper telling him to "get his head out of his ass," and Ozzie Guillen criticizing his body language.
Guillen gave him one last chance to prove his worth against Boston on Aug. 9. With the game tied at 1 in the seventh, he called for Logan for three consecutive matchups -- Jacoby Ellsbury, Jason Varitek and J.D. Drew. He gave up two singles and a walk to load the bases. When righty Dustin Pedroia came to the plate, Guillen came to the mound.
He didn't pull him. Instead, he gave him the ol' what-for on the mound, then went back to the dugout. Pedroia singled. Then the left-handed David Ortiz came to the plate, and he doubled. The Red Sox led 5-1, and Guillen pulled Logan all the way to Charlotte.
After the game, Guillen said about the situation, "'This is a pennant race. I want men on the field.''
The straits aren't that dire for Sale right now, but he's not on a good course. His relationships with relievers can deteriorate in a hurry if they fail him on two fronts:
- Lying about health or readiness otherwise.
- Failing to throw strikes when throwing strikes can't hurt.
And in the two appearances referenced by Ballantini above, Sale has been guilty of both. Guillen didn't chew out Sale for going to three-ball counts on every Oriole hitter while working with a six-run lead in the ninth, and that was a mild surprise. I had kinda expected him to slug him in the stomach after taking the ball.
Given the investment the Sox made in Sale and his relative inexperience, I think Guillen will go easier on him than the others. Guillen didn't lose anything by losing faith in Logan, who has had spurts of decency among lots of mediocrity since the Sox traded him to Atlanta in the Javier Vazquez deal. Locking Sale in his doghouse, on the other hand, would be a disaster on so many levels -- talent evaluation and deployment, player procurement, and even the draft.
At the same time, it makes sense for give Guillen and Sale a break from each other. Jake Peavy's return will force the Sox to shed a reliever, and with three non-closer lefties on the roster, there's no use for Sale in his current form. The results bear that out -- Sale has pitched less than any reliever in May, and Will Ohman is outperforming him handily.
It's a difficult decision, and I have no idea what truly makes sense. It's still early in the season in terms of sample sizes, but it's not "early" for the White Sox, thanks to the hole they've dug for themselves. And while knee-jerk demotions usually create more problems than they solve, anybody who is an affront to Guillen's bullpen honor code might require unusual means of protection. Bullpen situations have soured in a hurry before, and Sale's talent is worth preserving at all costs.
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can probably take this with the usual pinch of salt, but he & coop have been watching video from last year to try to fix things.
“My main focus is not about lighting up the radar gun,‘’ he said. "Everybody in this league can hit 98. That’s no secret. It’s a matter of where the pitch is, not how hard it is.‘’
“I’m just trying to get back into a rhythm and figure out what’s the reason behind what’s going on.’’
http://blogs.suntimes.com/whitesox/2011/05/chris-sale-white-sox-velocity.html
when they're not all in anymore next month
i guess they can easily send him to the minors to be a starter.
What will they say??
Well, we are officially not all in anymore. But we are moving to be all in down in re dominican republic next year.
You think Sale has the tools to start in the bigs? That frame of his stand up to a full season?
"Good teams win games. Bad teams have meetings."
by BobbySouthSide on May 9, 2011 5:52 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Blessing in disguise?
With Buehrle and Jackson almost certainly gone after this season, they will need at least one new starter. Chris Sale anyone? Isn’t that why they drafted him?
With Thornton no longer in the closer role, there’s really no need for three lefties in the pen. Make the smart call and send him to AA to build up his arm strength and hone his change.
A Mike Bertotti comparison would have been funny
Boone Logan is just plain mean.
sideways frowny face
sideways smiley face
Jim= bearer of bad news
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
Very negative posts today
We finally won a series and he slams us back down to earth. Jim might be my boss, who is a huge sox fan but also has these keeping it real qualities to his employees.
"Good teams win games. Bad teams have meetings."
by BobbySouthSide on May 9, 2011 5:59 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Jim hates a winning streak.
Gets his hopes up too high.
Sale needs to be a starter. We’re OK without him in the pen. Get him to Charlotte.
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, Slouches towards Bridgeport to be born?
How was the post about Sergio negative?
Whales! Squids! Sharks! They're everywhere! Hello, I am Poseidon! Now, when people told me I was crazy that thinly sliced roast beef would be a delicious fast-food option, I knew it was the greatest idea, and you can thank me later for Arby's.
come on
since you acknowledge that the caveats (sample size, babip, pedigree, etc) outweigh the substance of this post, perhaps your fear of posting it was justified.
by spengler on May 9, 2011 5:34 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I apologize for your dissatisfaction
Please see Debbie about a refund.
Whales! Squids! Sharks! They're everywhere! Hello, I am Poseidon! Now, when people told me I was crazy that thinly sliced roast beef would be a delicious fast-food option, I knew it was the greatest idea, and you can thank me later for Arby's.
I mentioned this in an earlier comment, but I'll mention it again as this sure seems like the place to do it:
Knowing that none of this stuff has had a chance to regress to any sort of mean, I’m going to post some Sale numbers from 2010 and 2011. After each thing, if I know how long it takes to get a reasonable sample, I’ll mention it. So far, Sale has faced 56 batters in 2011 and faced 92 in 2010. These are both below the 150 minimum for pretty much anything. But hey, why not look anyway:
(All numbers pulled from fangraphs, if anything is wrong it’s my error)
K/PA (needs 150 batters faced):
2010: .348
2011: .232
GB% (150BF):
2010: 51.0%
2011: 50.0%
LD% (150 BF):
2010: 12.2%
2011: 13.9%
FB% (200 BF):
2010: 36.7%
2011: 36.1%
GB/FB (200 BF):
2010: 1.39
2011: 1.38
K/BB (500 BF):
2010: 3.20
2011: 2.60
IFFB% (500 BF):
2010: 5.6%
2011: 0.0%
BB/PA (550 BF):
2010: .109
2011: .089
So, Sale is striking out less dudes, but still getting Ks at a rate of over 10 per 9 innings. I don’t know enough about pitchers to be able to totally dismiss this, but it seems like something that can be dismissed given the sample size. Sale is also giving up more line drives, but that rate is still low, and again it’s something that I (correctly or not) am going to dismiss as a sample size issue. Batted ball classifications aren’t known for their accuracy anyway. Just based on that, it doesn’t seem like Sale is doing that much worse.
His results, however, have been quite different. His ERA has ballooned from 1.93 to 7.15, which seems to be related to his LOB% dropping from 90.1% to 71.4%, opponent’s AVG raising from .183 to .300, BABIP rising from .271 to .353, and HR/9 rising from 0.77 to 2.38.
It would be pretty easy to dismiss that BABIP as flukish, given the relatively small changes in batted ball percentages. It would also be easy to dismiss the HR/9 rate, given that his HR/FB more than doubled from 11.1% last season to 23.1% this season. But it doesn’t look like Sale is pitching well and having bad luck this season- what it looks like is every ball put in play is squared up better, every ground ball is a rocket and many fly balls come from grooved strikes that get out in a hurry. Each PA seems like more of a struggle, too. Sale isn’t wiping guys out, he seems to be missing the zone, and pitches meant to be out of the zone seem to be drawing fewer swings.
I’m not totally sure what seems to be true is true, though. Have some more numbers (I don’t know how long these take to regress but I’m sure it hasn’t happened yet):
Swings at balls out of the zone:
2010: 23.7%
2011: 21.5%
Swings at balls in the zone:
2010: 53.2%
2011: 52.4%
Total swings at pitches:
2010: 38.2%
2011: 35.7%
These numbers haven’t changed much. Guys are swinging a bit less at Sale’s stuff all around, but not enough to seem like a huge difference.
Pitches thrown inside the strike zone:
2010: 49.0%
2011: 46.0%
First pitch strikes:
2010: 55.4%
2011: 58.9%
Sale is throwing a few less pitches into the strike zone, but only at a rate of 3 pitches per 100, which seems insignificant. I’m surprised that last season less than half of his pitches found the zone, but I guess his wipeout pitches were largely on swings and misses out of the zone. I am surprised that he’s going 0-1 on more batters this season than last, but it’s not a huge difference so it probably doesn’t mean anything.
Now the interesting numbers:
Contact on pitches out of the zone:
2010: 54.4%
2011: 69.2%
Contact on pitches in the zone:
2010: 80.8%
2011: 85.2%
Total contact on pitches:
2010: 72.4%
2011: 80.0%
Swinging strikes:
2010: 10.2%
2011: 6.9%
Sale is seeing a LOT more contact on his pitches, especially on the ones out of the zone. I don’t know to what this problem should be attributed, but it certainly indicates a change from this season to last season beyond bad luck with BABIP and fly balls. Sale’s ability to get swings and misses on sliders out of the zone, like in that three pitch K of Mauer last season, seemed to be a large part of what made him effective. I don’t know what’s happening with a lot of the contact Sale is getting- I’m sure foul balls vs balls in play, etc data is available but I’m running low on time and didn’t see it- but perhaps one of SSS’s resident pitching analysts could fill me in on exactly how this is affecting his results. As it stands, I don’t know what to make of it, but it does seem to explain a little bit why I think he’s looked so much worse this year.
(Yeah, this probably should have been a fanpost, but those things are for nerds.)
"I'm the Chicago man. I'm vital in Chicago." -Willy Ohman, Act 1
by mechanical turk on May 9, 2011 6:24 PM CDT reply actions 7 recs
better
would prefer this on the front page rather than that drivel about boone logan. sample size still not really usable, though.
Where the hell is "Douchebag Idea of the Day"?
I mean, really, spengler? MT, big_fun and knoxfire need to see your talent in full bloom.
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, Slouches towards Bridgeport to be born?
He hasn't been the same since AJ made him squat 10 times his body weight
by moroots on May 9, 2011 8:08 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
so 100 pounds?
I hope Kotsay gets hit by a dump truck and slips into a coma where he is stuck forever in Baseball purgatory having to bat against a three-headed, six-armed Lefty Hydra consisting of Billy Wagner, Damaso Marte, and Randy Johnson. - Shoeless In SC
It's like trying to sneak the sun past the rooster. - Hawk Harrelson

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