At the halfway point, which White Sox will double their numbers?

Although the All-Star break is still two weeks away, the White Sox locked the official first half in the books by playing -- and winning -- their 81st game of the season on Wednesday.

The 81st game is a great time to pull out the "on pace for" stats. Not only is three months is a pretty significant sample size, but moreover, all you have to do is double the numbers, and suddenly a player's streaks and slumps become significantly more "real."

We know Adam Dunn is struggling, but holy crap, he's only on pace for 14 homers.

Matt Thornton is the unluckiest pitcher in the world, and at his current rate, he might set some sort of relief record with 22 unearned runs.

Below the jump, I've extrapolated everybody's first 81 games over a full season, and grouped players into "better than that," "worse than that" and "about right." There are some easy decisions, but other calls are going to be doozies -- and debatable.

Position players

G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS GDP HBP
A.J. Pierzynski* 136 538 510 40 148 28 2 6 54 0 0 24 32 .290 .325 .388 .713 28 4
Paul Konerko 156 664 584 78 188 24 0 42 122 2 2 70 94 .322 .393 .579 .972 12 6
Gordon Beckham 144 534 486 62 110 16 0 12 42 4 2 30 112 .226 .288 .333 .622 10 14
Alexei Ramirez 156 682 624 94 174 38 2 14 72 6 4 52 84 .279 .335 .413 .749 24 2
Brent Morel 112 384 380 30 94 16 0 2 30 4 8 4 50 .247 .262 .305 .567 6 4
Juan Pierre* 154 696 624 70 30 14 4 2 34 20 20 46 42 .256 .317 .301 .618 12 10
Alexis Rios 154 602 568 72 70 24 0 12 40 10
10 38 62 .218 .269 .324 .593 24 2
Carlos Quentin 152 632 544 72 72 46 0 34 98 2 2 56 88 .257 .359 .529 .889 10 34
Adam Dunn* 134 558 462 40 40 24 0 14 58 0 2 84 200 .173 .308 .316 .624 10 8
G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS GDP HBP
Brent Lillibridge 102 260 220 44 58 6 2 14 30 12 8 22 68 .264 .359 .500 .859 0 12
Omar Vizquel# 72 232 214 26 58 10 2 0 16 2 4 10 24 .271 .298 .336 .635 4 0
Mark Teahen* 68 166 144 16 30 4 0 4 14 0 0 22 32 .208 .313 .319 .633 2 0
Ramon Castro 40 132 120 10 28 4 0 6 18 0 0 12 40 .233 .303 .417 .720 0 0

 

Better than that: Brent Morel, Mark Teahen, Gordon Beckham, Adam Dunn.

Worse than that: Brent Lillibridge, A.J. Pierzynski (slightly), Omar Vizquel.

About right: Paul Konerko, Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios, Alexei Ramirez, Ramon Castro, Juan Pierre (rate, not quantity).

Arguments in brief:  I'm bullish on Konerko, down on Rios, and Dayan Viciedo will probably take the biggest bite out of Pierre's playing time.

Pitchers

Pos W L ERA G SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP WHIP
SP Gavin Floyd 12 14 4.19 32 0 202.0 190 98 94 22 54 138 8 10 1.208
SP Mark Buehrle* 12 10 3.65 32 0 212.0 228 86 86 22 50 106 2 0 1.311
SP Philip Humber 14 8 2.89 32 0 193.1 142 66 62 14 46 118 8 14 0.972
SP John Danks* 6 16 4.21 30 0 188.0 214 94 88 22 56 130 10 8 1.351
SP Edwin Jackson 8 12 4.13 30 0 187.1 214 90 86 12 64 162 0 12 1.484
SP Jake Peavy 8 2 4.23 14 0 76.2 64 36 36 6 14 64 2 4 1.017
Pos W L ERA G SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP WHIP
CL Sergio Santos 4 6 3.16 64 32 76.0 44 26 26 4 40 98 4 4 1.105
RP Jesse Crain 6 4 2.75 68 2 72 42 22 22 6 30 70 0 0 1.000
RP Chris Sale* 4 0 3.86 60 4 65.1 64 28 28 6 28 64 2 0 1.408
RP Matt Thornton* 0 8 3.72 64 4 58.2
76 46 24 4 28 56 0 2 1.806
RP Will Ohman* 0 2 5.06 52 0 42.2 44 26 24 8 12 48 0 2 1.313
Tony Pena 2 2 6.20 34 0 40.2 50 30 28 4 20 34 0 0 1.721
Brian Bruney 2 0 3.86 22 0 20.0 16 8 8 2 16 14 0 0 1.600

 

Better than that: John Danks (if healthy), Matt Thornton, Chris Sale.

Worse than that: Jesse Crain, Sergio Santos, Phil Humber (not that much).

About right: Gavin Floyd, Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, Jake Peavy, Will Ohman, Pena/Bruney.

Arguments in brief: Santos' workload will be a new strain on him, Crain has been rut-prone in the past, Humber might see a gentle, 2005-Jon-Garland second-half regression, and Jake Peavy seems like he's going to hit the DL again.

There are reasons for optimism, because the returns to the mean should outweigh the regression cases. The only problem is that it requires faith in players who haven't shown the ability to sustain anything this season. The health of Danks and Peavy loom large, and Dayan Viciedo's promotion will alter the landscape, but in the end, everybody's looking at Adam Dunn. Here's hoping he's ready for it.

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