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Axelrod executes in successful starting debut

Raise your hand if you had Dylan Axelrod penciled in for a September start back in April.

Dylan Axelrod made his major-league debut as a starter on Wednesday, and while he threw six innings of two-run ball, he set a couple of great examples in the process.

He's the classic tale of perseverance for all the non-prospects toiling away in the low minors and indy leagues. Two years removed from pitching 61 innings for the Windy City Thunderbolts, Axelrod found himself on a big-league mound, and stifling a playoff-caliber lineup to boot.

He's also the model for all fringe rotation candidates and emergency starters, because he played to his limited arsenal's strengths and pulled off his gameplan as well as anybody could expect. Axelrod is a sinker-slider guy and neither pitch stands out, except his control allows him to throw either pitch in any count.

That creates a little more wiggle room than those two pitches would normally allow, and separates him from your Jeff Marquezes, Lucas Harrells, Carlos Torreses -- hell, it even puts him slightly ahead of your Zach Stewarts at this point in his career. Pitchers of this variety can survive when they grab first strikes and hitters start expanding the zone, but when the tables are turned, they're forced to choose between fastballs or walks, and that normally doesn't end well.

That's not saying Axelrod can hold down a rotation spot, but if his performance against Detroit is any indication, he does a few things that give him a real chance to string together at least two quality starts. That might sound unimpressive, but it's a task that's too tall for most of his peers.

Star-divide

So, how did he do it?

No. 1: He missed inside.

Axelrod wasn't afraid to crowd Miguel Cabrera with sinkers down and in, and when facing lefties like Victor Martinez, he started out his slider on the inside corner. Both strategies resulted in strikeouts of the two best Detroit hitters, and although they combined to ding Axelrod for a run in the sixth inning, it's hard to blame him. He threw an 0-2 slider that A.J. Pierzynski would've had to block ... if Cabrera didn't pick it off the ground and drive it into the left-center gap for a double.

Here's his Brooks data:

Axelrod_medium

No. 2: His slider can get some lefties out.

Unlike a lot of iffy sinker-slider guys, Axelrod didn't have huge platoon splits in Charlotte:

  • vs. RHB: .207/.258/.307
  • vs. LHB: .256/.309/.366

That's because his slider has a late break with downward tilt. When he gets on top of it, it can resemble a changeup enough, so the change in speed makes up for a lack of dramatic break. Yet it also had enough horizontal movement to lure Delmon Young into some ugly half-swings as it drifted off the plate away. That's not going to fool a guy like Cabrera, but hey -- simple logic suggests that almost half the hitters in baseball are below average.

That said, there's a definite element of danger when the split is against him. His slider turned into his first major-league gopher ball when Carlos Guillen sat on it. He left it up, and true to form, it acted like a hanging changeup. John Danks can tell him some stories about those.

No. 3: Speaking of changeups, he didn't show it.

Axelrod threw 93 pitches over six innings, but only three were changeups. All three went for strikes, including one that resulted in his eighth and final strikeout of the day, and another that turned into a weak flyout to left by his final batter, Don Kelly. You can see both in his highlight reel:

 

 

The Tigers started hitting him hard at the end of his start -- they strung together the aforementioned Cabrera double, a line-drive single by Martinez and a lineout to right by Guillen. It's hard to tell whether all Detroit hitters were getting hip to his stuff, or whether three hitters with All-Star track records were doing what they were supposed to do against an emergency starter, but an adjustment is coming sooner or later.

The changeup is his third pitch, so there's probably a good reason why he didn't throw it much. However, it seemed to have its uses against hitters who hadn't seen it. If that part of his game holds, he might be able to mix in it a little more in his next outing and hold off the advance scouts for at least one more day.

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as i said in my quick scouting report

the guy throws strikes. and he’s got decent enough command that he appears to be able to throw the ball where he wants to.

by larry on Sep 15, 2011 10:47 AM CDT reply actions  

strkes + control seems to fit the "wily lefthander" description

but for some reason it doesn’t seem to describe too many righties.

by ruffster on Sep 15, 2011 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

not directed at you

but regarding the masturbatory obsession some have with the twins and their player development.

The bad news is that the Twins have an excellent chance to finish last in one of baseball’s weakest divisions. The worse news is that help from the system is most definitely not on the way, at least anytime soon. Outfielder Joe Benson should provide some much needed muscle to the lineup in 2012, but with righty Kyle Gibson undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier in the month, the cupboard of prospects at the upper levels is bare.

Teenage sluggers like Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario provide upside but are still years away, so the future of the Twins consists of prospects that don’t seem like much of an improvement over what’s already on the roster, thanks to a consistent over-reliance on strike throwers when it comes to drafting pitchers and a seeming favoritism toward fundamentals over athleticism when it comes to selecting position players. That’s enough to create a productive system in terms of quantity, but what the club needs now is quality, and that’s not coming in 2012 or the year after. —Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15051

having joe mauer and justin morneau on your team can hide a lot of things. except when they’re both hurt.

by larry on Sep 15, 2011 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

command, not control.

my point is not that he can throw strikes; it’s that he appears to be able to throw good strikes (and, similarly, good balls), at least with his fastballs.

by larry on Sep 15, 2011 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

Do you think that command is good enough to potentially stick as a back end starter?

Some people talk as if it is a done deal that Quentin will be traded away since Viciedo can step in for him, and the Sox obviously need to clear some payroll. But after watching the same story again and again (tons of quality starts wasted by lack of offense) would it ever dawn on management that maybe they might actually try to put two corner outfielders in the lineup that can both hit like corner outfielders and give the team the HR numbers they need in that park?

Possibly move some of the money tied up in pitching (Floyd/Thornton/Crain) and see if some other guys step up? Seems like they annually squeeze out value from pitchers, but never hitters. When plan A the last 3 seasons has featured starting outfield positions held down by Pierre and Wise, it might be time for a little adjustment.

by MelidoPerez on Sep 15, 2011 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

(it was his first major league start but not his debut)

"michael gilhaney is an example of a man that is nearly banjaxed from the principal of the atomic theory. would it astonish you to hear that he is nearly half a bicycle?" ~~ sergeant pluck

by BuehrleMan on Sep 15, 2011 11:49 AM CDT reply actions  

(thanks)

Whales! Squids! Sharks! They're everywhere! Hello, I am Poseidon! Now, when people told me I was crazy that thinly sliced roast beef would be a delicious fast-food option, I knew it was the greatest idea, and you can thank me later for Arby's.

by Jim Margalus on Sep 15, 2011 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

Ranking The Top September Callups
7. Addison Reed, rhp, White Sox

Because of how quickly he blazed through the White Sox’s system this year, Addison Reed won’t appear anywhere in the upcoming League Top 20 Prospect lists, but if you were asking scouts who was the best closer prospect they saw this year, Reed is generally the first name that comes up.

Reed had the nearly impossible job in college of replacing Stephen Strasburg as San Diego State’s staff ace. He did pretty well himself, going 8-2, 2.50 for San Diego State as a junior. Before that, he served as the Aztecs’ closer, coming in to close out Strasburg’s many victories. Reed had 24 saves and a 0.65 ERA as a sophomore, establishing himself as one of the nation’s best collegiate relievers. The White Sox nabbed him in the third round of the 2010 draft, and quickly moved him back to the bullpen.

He started the season in low Class A Kannapolis, quickly pitched his way up to high Class A Winston-Salem, then kept repeating the same process, earning promotion after promotion until he reached Chicago in September. One year, five levels, with barely an earned run to show for it.

Reed went 2-1, 1.26 in 78 minor league innings this year.

“He’s a future closer. He’s 95-99 mph with a 65 slider (on the 20-to-80 scouting scale) and the chance to have an average changeup,” one AL scout said. “He could grow into a closer. He could be dominating. He’s dominated everywhere this year.”

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/prospect-pulse/2011/2612326.html

by larry on Sep 15, 2011 12:16 PM CDT reply actions  

So when do we trade him for Jeff Francouer?

"MY NAME IS YOANIS CESPEDEZ YOU KILLED MY FATHER" WHAT!

by winningugly on Sep 15, 2011 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

would Francouer consider a player-manager role?

White Sox 2011: The season of extraneous body parts.

by greenlight on Sep 15, 2011 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

And he gets bonus points for performing well in chilly, rainy conditions.

He did get hit hard later on, but he also had his share of batters looking silly early on.

Sadly, Sergio wasn’t quite as prepared for such conditions.

"Alex is our best option right now." - Ozzie Guillen answering the media regarding Alex Rios continually batting clean-up (8/31/11)

by tailgater on Sep 15, 2011 1:01 PM CDT reply actions  

So he is slated to be our "inclimate" closer?

I had no idea such designation existed.

"MY NAME IS YOANIS CESPEDEZ YOU KILLED MY FATHER" WHAT!

by winningugly on Sep 15, 2011 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sorry, "inclimate 6th starter".

"MY NAME IS YOANIS CESPEDEZ YOU KILLED MY FATHER" WHAT!

by winningugly on Sep 15, 2011 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

I believe the term is "a mudder."

"Alex is our best option right now." - Ozzie Guillen answering the media regarding Alex Rios continually batting clean-up (8/31/11)

by tailgater on Sep 15, 2011 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

And Sergio would be our "incompetent" closer.

"Alex is our best option right now." - Ozzie Guillen answering the media regarding Alex Rios continually batting clean-up (8/31/11)

by tailgater on Sep 15, 2011 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

As in "mudder fokker"?

"MY NAME IS YOANIS CESPEDEZ YOU KILLED MY FATHER" WHAT!

by winningugly on Sep 15, 2011 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

inclement.

Trying to score runs with Juan Pierre as your leadoff hitter is like trying to suture a wound in a moving car. You might still be successful -- but why make it so hard on yourself?

by Chiburb on Sep 15, 2011 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

The strikeout

of Betemit with his slider in the fourth actually moved 3 inches back toward Axelrod’s hand. Changeup not a changeup!

LeBron James: Which of His Blessings would you deny?

by ProfessorEmmer on Sep 15, 2011 1:46 PM CDT reply actions  

Yeah, I thought it was a change at first.

But it was thrown at slider speed, so the end result was practically a screwball.

Whales! Squids! Sharks! They're everywhere! Hello, I am Poseidon! Now, when people told me I was crazy that thinly sliced roast beef would be a delicious fast-food option, I knew it was the greatest idea, and you can thank me later for Arby's.

by Jim Margalus on Sep 15, 2011 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

His strikeout of Betemit the next time

had a change that broke toward his hand 9 inches (any lady would be impressed). Made Betemit look like he was playing for the Sox again.

LeBron James: Which of His Blessings would you deny?

by ProfessorEmmer on Sep 15, 2011 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

Hey, is Dunn done for the year?

"MY NAME IS YOANIS CESPEDEZ YOU KILLED MY FATHER" WHAT!

by winningugly on Sep 15, 2011 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

We can only hope.

"Alex is our best option right now." - Ozzie Guillen answering the media regarding Alex Rios continually batting clean-up (8/31/11)

by tailgater on Sep 15, 2011 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

and

hopefully for the year and not his career.

LeBron James: Which of His Blessings would you deny?

by ProfessorEmmer on Sep 15, 2011 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

Nice to see Rios still batting clean-up (not that it matters)

"Alex is our best option right now." - Ozzie Guillen answering the media regarding Alex Rios continually batting clean-up (8/31/11)

by tailgater on Sep 15, 2011 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sunday's game should be a real treat

Danks v. Chen

Gonna see Sox personnel try to out-quit each other.

I shant be misled a second time

by Nordhagen on Sep 15, 2011 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

Who'll be watching?

Bears kick-off at noon.

"Alex is our best option right now." - Ozzie Guillen answering the media regarding Alex Rios continually batting clean-up (8/31/11)

by tailgater on Sep 15, 2011 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Me.

Trying to score runs with Juan Pierre as your leadoff hitter is like trying to suture a wound in a moving car. You might still be successful -- but why make it so hard on yourself?

by Chiburb on Sep 15, 2011 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

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