The 2012 White Sox
by SteveKerr on Sep 4, 2011 12:19 PM CDT
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M Cabrera homered to left.
In the wake of the most frustrating loss in an incredibly frustrating season, it looks like it is time to start thinking about the offseason. In order to do this, we need to look at went wrong this season. The answer is obvious:
Adam Dunn: 2011 WAR: -2.6, Avg WAR/136 games, not incl. 2011: 2.5
Alex Rios: 2011 WAR: -1.1, Avg WAR/136 games, not incl. 2011: 2.9
(found on fangraphs)
This has been talked about ad nauseam all year, but plug in an average Dunn and Rios year, the Sox are leading the division. Plug in two AAA schlubs, the Sox are in the thick of the race. And let's also not forget that the Average WAR for Adam Dunn assumes he's losing runs in the field, due to his previous presence in the National League, so that number should really be higher.
There have been a few other things that may have affected the win-loss record this year.
- Despite Juan Pierre's "resurgence," he is still god-awful and one of the worst players in baseball. What if the younger, cheaper, and better Viciedo had been starting in left all year?
- Despite AJ's better than average (for him) year with the bat, he is still a terrible defensive catcher, and he still sports a barely average OBP of .333. What if the younger, cheaper, and better Flowers had been starting all year?
- The lack of prospects and payroll flexibility to make a big acquisition at the trade deadline.
- The constant Ozzie "situations:" Not knowing how to run an AL offense, running and bunting into countless outs, demanding a contract extension in the heat of a playoff race, and the constant head-butting with the GM.
On the positive side, I don't think much needs to be done to this team, partly owing to the Dunn and Rios stats mentioned above. Due to his age and skillset, I think Dunn is a good bet to rebound after an offseason to clear his head and start over. I don't think Rios's hitting will improve much; he has had one good half-season since he got to Chicago. But hopefully his defense can return to normal and he can at least be a nice $12M defensive replacement. Ugh.
What should be done?
1. You're probably not going to find anyone who wants Alex Rios. Listen to offers and get rid of him if you can, perhaps for a pitcher on a bad contract.
2. Fire Ozzie Guillen. Trade him to the Marlins. Just get him out. While some disagreement between the manager and GM can be healthy, it has been costing the team wins this year.
3. Free agents/options:
Juan Pierre: Let him walk
Mark Buehrle: Resign him. While he will likely want/deserve a raise after the year he's had, let's not go too crazy.
Jason Frasor: Excercise the $3.75M option
Omar Vizquel: Let him walk
4. Trade Pierzynski for prospects if you can get him to waive his 10 and 5 rights. He is not expensive, and people need catching. Flowers's time is here.
5. Arb-eligible players:
Pena: Let him walk
Danks: Resign at pretty much any cost
Quentin: Resign if you can. Can also trade him for prospects if you don't mind seeing Rios starting all year again.
Next years roster:
1. De Aza (8)
2. Alexei (6)
3. Kong (3)
4. Dunn (DH)
5. Quentin (9)
6. Viciedo (7)
7. Flowers (2)
8. Beckham (4)
9. Morel (5)
BN- Lillibridge
BN- Rios
BN- Backup catcher
BN- ??? Replacement level guy
SP1- Buehrle
SP2- Danks
SP3- Floyd
SP4- Peavy
SP5- Humber
RP1- Santos
RP2- Crain
RP3- Sale
RP4- Thornton
RP5- Frasor
RP6- Ohman
RP7- Long reliever
SouthSideSox is a community driven site. As such, users are able to express their thoughts and opinions in a FanPost, such as this one, which represents the views of this particular fan, but not necessarily the entire community or SouthSideSox editors.
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i don't know much about defensive metrics for catchers,
but it was my understanding that aj isn’t terrible defensively, he’s just awful at gunning down runners.
Q (maybe floyd) = the save some money bit. floyd/humber = the work sale into the rotation part.
wasn’t clear enough. clearly.
I have recently been assured that runners taking 2nd is all on the pitchers.
Many times. On a National broadcast.
So it must be true.
"That might be how you roll at Camp Anawanna, Budnick. But where I come from, we only salute Old Glory." -moroots on May 23rd
by South Side Expat on Sep 5, 2011 2:47 AM CDT up reply actions
It's not a terrible premise
If you figure that a catcher’s time to second is relatively static, while a pitcher can do some things to shorten his part of the equation. Or at least that’s what the “you steal on the pitcher” school would say. As axioms go, I don’t hate it. It’s a useful idea for both runners and pitchers.
Problem is, there’s only so much a pitcher can do to cover for a catcher who can’t throw. That’s where the Sox are with AJ, and that’s the point I want to hear made on any broadcast.
Not so much at the pro level.
Our pitchers – minus our lefty Hall of Famer – are terrible at holding runners and picking when in obvious running counts.
" i'm sure you've been right on something at some point."
-by Larry on May 28, 2009 4:55 PM PST
pro level?
i assume you must mean major league level. there’s still a difference. if people are complaining that pitchers aren’t getting the ball to the plate fast enough i don’t know why they think catchers are so different that they all have a “static” time getting the ball to second. utterly silly. anyone who watches the white sox sees the rather obvious difference between aj and flowers. and flowers isn’t anything special.
At the "major league" level, there is little difference in a catcher's time to second.
Hoytsstash, for one, did not complain that the pitcher is not getting the ball to the plate fast enough. And at the “major league” level most of the running is done in count situations or a guess. Therefore, the slide-step at the major league level is overrated and largely abandoned.
Simply stated, our pitchers don’t do a good job of holding runners. Thats not a complaint.
As for AJ and Flowers – sure there is an obvious difference. I agree with you there Larry. But knowing this, perhaps an adjustment could be made?
" i'm sure you've been right on something at some point."
-by Larry on May 28, 2009 4:55 PM PST
I find it funny.
Because it helps me imagine a mustache making declarations.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
You have not experienced Hoytsstach.
Funny guy.
"MY NAME IS YOANIS CESPEDEZ YOU KILLED MY FATHER" WHAT!
it takes approximately 3.4 seconds for a runner stealing second to get there.
it takes the average catcher 2 seconds to throw the ball to second. it should be knock you over the fucking head obvious that the “little difference in a catcher’s time to second” is one of, if not the most, important variables.
"...one of, if not the most, important variables."
As if there are more than 2?
And Larry, it should be knock you over the fucking head obvious that I addressed that concern with the last question of my previous post.
Here, Hoytsstash knock you over the head — “…perhaps an adjustment should be made?”
" i'm sure you've been right on something at some point."
-by Larry on May 28, 2009 4:55 PM PST
i have no clue what you mean by "an adjustment could be made"
adjustment to what. when you want something to be knock you over the fucking head obvious, don’t be cryptic.
As I look at my suggestion
I laugh outloud at myself when the solution to our problem is either pick more often or get a new catcher. That, I guess, was my adjustment to be made – pick more often.
As I read that, Hoytsstash thinks we are in a terrible position.
So start Flowers, stick with AJ and his inability to throw people out, or pick more often.
Hell of a dilemma. It seems like those are our options.
None of them seem great. Whattyathink.
" i'm sure you've been right on something at some point."
-by Larry on May 28, 2009 4:55 PM PST
i'm not as big a fan of throwing over.
i’ve always thought varying time in the set was most effective. that comes from personal experience (i hated when guys held the ball) and from what i’ve read in interviews with some decent basestealers. obviously being left-handed and/or having a good pickoff move is best but that stuff is harder develop. i, too, dislike the slide step.
I also hated when the pitcher varied his looks...
the old U….C….L…..A only worked so often as a base-runner. After that, it was a guess.
Hoytsstash thinks, by observation from both up-close and afar here at SSS, that you must certainly be involved in baseball at more than just the commentary level.
Just an assumption.
" i'm sure you've been right on something at some point."
-by Larry on May 28, 2009 4:55 PM PST
I have to ask
How do you think AJ would take being designated as backup? I don’t think that would go very well, not well at all.
Look who's back?
Welcome, stranger in a strange land.
"MY NAME IS YOANIS CESPEDEZ YOU KILLED MY FATHER" WHAT!
Strange lands indeed.
Somethings never change.
But I refused my own advice a couple years ago – pick and chose carefully when addressing Larry.
Apparently living out of the country has melted my brain. Hoytsstash has directly engaged Larry in civil dispute. Mistake.
And who is this ornamental vegetable barking up Hoytsstash’s tree?
" i'm sure you've been right on something at some point."
-by Larry on May 28, 2009 4:55 PM PST
On this planet,
rhubarb is largely considered a vegetable.
And Hoytsstash can’t help it if you have something jammed in your mouth or throat.
Happen often?
" i'm sure you've been right on something at some point."
-by Larry on May 28, 2009 4:55 PM PST
according to that most vaunted of sources - wikipedia,
rhubarb is considered by the u.s. customs to be a fruit. heh.
But he's married!
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
by U-God on Sep 7, 2011 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
if your username was hoytsstash
you’d say it as many times as you could too
Joe Buck is just White Noise to me. It’s like the game is being called by a CD of whale songs. - mechanical turk
thats not all im putting in your mouth!
/shows self out
Joe Buck is just White Noise to me. It’s like the game is being called by a CD of whale songs. - mechanical turk
by blackoutsox on Sep 7, 2011 10:14 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
This is America
Only the smartest and best make it all the way up to the national level. Check out Congress for proof.
if Reed is as good as larry says he is... i see no reason to pick up frasor's option.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
so you agree with me on frasor right?
thats a lot of money for a 3rd righty reliever
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
yeah no way i pick that up
hes been pretty bad for us
I live in a simpler place. I speak the language. ~ U-God
judging a player by 14 innings really isn't a good idea.
more to the point is that, based on frasor’s 472 career innings, addison reed will be better and cost less.
give me a little credit, ass.
im pretty familiar with his entire body of work.
its not worth 3.75M
I live in a simpler place. I speak the language. ~ U-God
except he's going to turn 35 next season
plus 3 year trends show xFIP and BB/9 going the wrong way
pass.
same
i hate frasor
Joe Buck is just White Noise to me. It’s like the game is being called by a CD of whale songs. - mechanical turk
can he play third?
Joe Buck is just White Noise to me. It’s like the game is being called by a CD of whale songs. - mechanical turk
enough to be a passable backup in the majors?
Joe Buck is just White Noise to me. It’s like the game is being called by a CD of whale songs. - mechanical turk
better than omar
Jim Thome sponsor(s) this page.
Highly underrated, Mark Kotsay became the best defensive designated hitter in American League history in 2010.
by onlysoxfaninbasel on Sep 5, 2011 12:59 AM CDT up reply actions
thanks larry!
Joe Buck is just White Noise to me. It’s like the game is being called by a CD of whale songs. - mechanical turk
This may be one of those ignorant questions, but if I'm going that route, I'd rather have you yell at me than anyone else.
What are the odds of someone who is a SS prospect and not cutting it there but then getting shifted to 2nd or 3rd and excelling at that position because of ability to field strongly on their left or right?
"That might be how you roll at Camp Anawanna, Budnick. But where I come from, we only salute Old Glory." -moroots on May 23rd
by South Side Expat on Sep 5, 2011 3:03 AM CDT up reply actions
familiarize yourself with the defensive spectrum
pretty much all guys in MLB were a ss at one time. Gary Sheffield comes to mind.
From the Bill James Primer:
The defensive spectrum looks like this: [ – - 1B – LF – RF – 3B – CF – 2B – SS – C – - ]
with the basic premise being that positions at the right end of
the spectrum are more difficult than the positions at the left
end of the spectrum. Players can generally move from right
to left along the specturm successfully during their careers.
Hrmmm...
Okay, perhaps a poorly worded question for my intention. I get the defensive spectrum thing (years of White Sox center fielders and such.) I was wondering more along the lines of having strong sides and weak sides as far as fielding.
"That might be how you roll at Camp Anawanna, Budnick. But where I come from, we only salute Old Glory." -moroots on May 23rd
by South Side Expat on Sep 5, 2011 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions
you're talking about range.
players who who manage to stay at SS through AAA tend to be plus in that skill (though, to be clear, not necessarily plus for a SS). as for left or right, that may factor into a decision as to where they would play if they can’t play SS, though a player like that likely does not have a weak side, only a less strong side. teams generally look, however, at throwing strength and how they think a player would handle the double play. escobar might make a marginally better second baseman but he’s certainly a plus defender at either second or third and very likely plus at short. there should be zero concern about his defensive abilities as a bench player.
I'd hate to see AJ or Flowers at SS
Or 2nd, 3rd, and CF. With AJ’s arm I wouldn’t like to see him in Right or Left either, but I would imagine Flowers can cut it. I think James needs to put C at another level.
3 things in life I care about
Sox, Colts, and Hawks.
Lifetime banners: '05, '07, '10
Though certainly cheaper, I'm not sure Flowers will outproduce AJ.
Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.
yeah, why not let castro walk and flowers be a full-time back-up?
Jim Thome sponsor(s) this page.
Highly underrated, Mark Kotsay became the best defensive designated hitter in American League history in 2010.
by onlysoxfaninbasel on Sep 4, 2011 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions
id be willing to bet a lot of money thats what is going to happen.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
Agreed
" i'm sure you've been right on something at some point."
-by Larry on May 28, 2009 4:55 PM PST
i was going to point out
i don’t think aj’s OBP is “barely average”. it is .333. league average is .322. and mlb average for catchers is .315. i’d call aj’s OBP above average.
"michael gilhaney is an example of a man that is nearly banjaxed from the principal of the atomic theory. would it astonish you to hear that he is nearly half a bicycle?" ~~ sergeant pluck
by BuehrleMan on Sep 4, 2011 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
"Barely" is a weird modifier for average, in any way.
Reminds me when Alexei was a VERY AVERAGE shortstop.
Whales! Squids! Sharks! They're everywhere! Hello, I am Poseidon! Now, when people told me I was crazy that thinly sliced roast beef would be a delicious fast-food option, I knew it was the greatest idea, and you can thank me later for Arby's.
fair enough
I didn’t think the league average was that low. I always thought it was around .330.
i enjoy drinking beer
If only a place existed where one could look this stuff up.
The policeman who jumps from a bridge to a plane is Detective John McClane, a.k.a. Bruce Willis. He’s just the star of the whole movie series and stuff, no big deal or anything. -Cruiser
my concern is he gives back that value with 2nd base free with purchase of first base when AJ is in there.
It was so nice seeing guys actually get thrown out by Flowers.
Of course AJ only had a .300 OBP last season
And he’s getting old-ish. Why wouldn’t you let Flowers play instead?
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three-run homers."
by ThreeRunHomer on Sep 6, 2011 5:39 AM CDT up reply actions
yes, this was my point
Here are the OBP’s of AJ’s last 5 seasons (including this one): .309, .312, .331, .300, .330. He is not a good offensive catcher. It’s hard to dispute he’s terrible throwing out runners. I also recall reading an article earlier this year (it may have been on here, I’m not sure…I will look for it and repost a link if I can find it) that graded out catcher defense in other categories, like blocking balls in the dirt etc, and AJ was in the middle-to-bottom of all the things they rated. Because of all these things, I believe it is time to get rid of him while his value is higher because of his offensive production this year.
i enjoy drinking beer
here's what i was looking for
In each one of these articles that I’ve read, AJ is near the bottom.
i enjoy drinking beer
am i missing something?
Using an catcher average OBP of .315, that’s two below average years, an average year, and two above average years.
I’m trying to see how his other offensive stats (SLG, wOBA, etc) compare against other catchers, but on fangraphs it’s only comparing against league-average for all positions. Is there an easy way to find the league average of a stat for a certain position (outside of articles that are years old, or doing it all by hand)?
i enjoy drinking beer
i'm sure you're aware that there are other sites that have baseball statistics.
like espn. and, yeah, what you’re missing is SLG.
two below average, one average, two above average =
an average catcher.
"keep a weather eye on the horizon, dearest captain of the douche canoe" - BJ
by Shoeless In SC on Sep 6, 2011 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Veteran catcher
who shows up hitting .280/.290. Calls a good game and hits left handed.
Hoytsstash doesn’t think the self proclaimed T-Flow is ready for the day to day yet.
4 cents.
" i'm sure you've been right on something at some point."
-by Larry on May 28, 2009 4:55 PM PST
Hoytsstash agrees with most of the post
but the bagging on Ozzie.
It has been a terrible year. But he has proven he can run an offense in the past. Perhaps the running and bunting was an effort to manufacture runs for hitters that dreadfully underperformed. Hit and runs to make people swing the bat, etc…
Hoytsstash says keep him around. He was dedicated to sticking with his guys, and the payroll.
Who’d have thought this offense would have continued to sink throughout the season. They were still treading water and within reach until a few days ago.
Just Hoytsstash’s 2 cents – which is probably worth just that.
" i'm sure you've been right on something at some point."
-by Larry on May 28, 2009 4:55 PM PST
As an outsider looking in
I’d say Ozzie is a below replacement level manager. But I’m biased against small ball twits.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three-run homers."
by ThreeRunHomer on Sep 6, 2011 5:48 AM CDT up reply actions
What if you replaced BN- ??? Replacement level guy
With LoMo.
We’d be known around the MLB as the saviors of LoMo. Or even better Replace De Aza with LoMo and have De Aza on the bench.
3 things in life I care about
Sox, Colts, and Hawks.
Lifetime banners: '05, '07, '10
who would you propose to trade for LoMo?
Jim Thome sponsor(s) this page.
Highly underrated, Mark Kotsay became the best defensive designated hitter in American League history in 2010.
by onlysoxfaninbasel on Sep 6, 2011 3:04 AM CDT up reply actions
Craig stole my response.
Ozzie and a PTBNL for LoMo, then drop some middling prospect at the end of the year to them.
3 things in life I care about
Sox, Colts, and Hawks.
Lifetime banners: '05, '07, '10
what about LaMi?
he can be on the bench.
"keep a weather eye on the horizon, dearest captain of the douche canoe" - BJ
by Shoeless In SC on Sep 6, 2011 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Trade Pierzynski for prospects if you can get him to waive his 10 and 5 rights.
Why would he do this? I would think a big part of the appeal of signing the contract that he did was that he wouldn’t have to worry about trades during the 2011-2012 offseason.
a VERY AVERAGE Sox Machine refugee
to play for a contender?
maybe if he gets pissed off with a flowers promotion / time split proposition he’d want out, though i agree it doesn’t seem likely.
Easy chief
We’re a community - Tdogg
I would think this would be more likely if the Sox were at the beginning of a long rebuilding process with no shot at 2012.
But because of their contracts, the Sox are basically forced to try to contend in 2012. And I think Pierzynski will be along for the ride.
a VERY AVERAGE Sox Machine refugee
How on earth did Donny Lucy get left out of all this?
I cannot answer any more questions for you today. I has wickeds gas from drink too manys redbull.
That team is too expensive
Even if AJ is traded, it will be in the $120-125 range: I think word has already gotten out that that’s not going to happen.
I agree in not being a big AJ fan, but we’ve only gotten a glimpse of Flowers. Let’s see how that OPS fares after the league adjusts to him.
Keeping Danks and Buerhle both would be great, but may be too expensive. Sale is likely to join the rotation. Probably have to move Floyd and Quentin, and lose at least one of those expensive relievers (probably Frasor, who is a type B free agent) to keep Danks and Buerhle.
So . . . subtract Pierre, Frasor, Floyd, Quentin, Vizquel. Keep Buerhle and Danks.
That’s about $110-115 million. I suppose you can shave more by getting Buerhle/Danks to agree to deferred money, a la AJ and Paulie last year, which maybe leaves enough money for a Jason Kubel type.
by son_of_sophist on Sep 19, 2011 12:02 PM CDT reply actions
yes
Joe Buck is just White Noise to me. It’s like the game is being called by a CD of whale songs. - mechanical turk
you called it!
I sure did. Mr. Anachronism here.
facepalm at this whole thread.
Only Football and Hockey can make me happy now. Bears and Blackhawks!
by pierzynskirules on Sep 20, 2011 12:23 PM CDT reply actions
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