What will be the story of this Morel?
Brent Morel drew a walk on Tuesday night. This used to be an event worthy of ALL CAPS, but the novelty has started to wear off during his push for double digits in the "BB" column.
Relative to his first four months, he's turned into a regular Warren Newson in the past three weeks:
- First 90 games (309 PA): Four walks
- Last 14 games (52 PA): Five walks
He drew a walk against Justin Verlander. He coaxed one out of Jered Weaver. Even Liam Hendriks, your garden-variety strike-throwing Twin, handed him his most recent free pass.
Along with the walks, Morel is beginning to use the left side of second base more over this recent minor tear (eight hits in his last 25 at-bats). He hit a homer against Brad Penny, but it looked like he made better contact on his roped double off Justin Verlander. Likewise, he drove in De Aza with a scorched single past Trevor Plouffe at short on Tuesday. Rank them however you want, but the end result is an unprecedented cluster of hard-hit balls.
Add it all up, and Morel boosted his OPS all the way to ... .608.
This number represents Morel's glass ceiling. He peaked on June 7 at .613 ... followed by a popless month. He rebuilt his OPS past .600 on Aug. 11 ... then went 0-for-14.
This has been the theme of Morel's season, and he has three weeks to smash through the barrier. His September is more important to his personal future than any of his teammates.
Among AL hitters with at least 350 plate appearances, Morel has the fifth-worst total of batting runs above average. That's bad enough, but the bigger problem is the company he keeps (totals prior to Tuesday's games):
- Alex Rios: -26.4
- Adam Dunn: -19.4
- Alcides Escobar: -19.4
- Aaron Hill: -17.4
- Brent Morel: -16.5
- Gordon Beckham: -16.5
Yes, the White Sox have four of the league's worst hitters in their everyday lineup. That's why we wanted Alejandro De Aza and Dayan Viciedo involved six weeks before they were. That's the epitaph on the tombstone. It's managerial and organizational negligence, plain and simple.
The problems extend well beyond Morel's jurisdiction. Everybody expected him to have a below-average bat while hoping his glove would carry the day. He's hitting worse than we'd like, but he's waaaaaay closer to his projections than the other three.
Unfortunately, that doesn't buy Morel as much time as it should, because he's clearly the low man on the totem pole. He has the shortest track record. He plays a power position, whereas Rios and Beckham do not. And he has minor-league options. If they all scuffle to the finish, Morel's lost year is the easiest to reconcile.
That said, Morel's struggles have lacked a certain emotional toll. Dunn looks done, Rios emits indifference, and Beckham, in the words of Hawk Harrelson, has the spirit of a "beaten puppy." By comparison, Morel's season has been smooth sailing. As long as he slaps a single every four at-bats and does his job on the left side of the infield, he sidesteps reasonable expectations that he could and should do more. I mean ... nine walks. It's September. Yet there's just been way bigger fish to fry.
September was always going to be important for Morel, based on the learning curve of a non-elite rookie. It's more important now, because he accomplished too little over his first five months. But it's still salvageable. If he rides this upswing through the end of the season, he'll have completed his two key objectives -- to play high-quality defense, and to eventually figure out major-league pitching. It might've taken longer than desired, but he won't be one of the top five reasons why the "All In" White Sox sunk.
However, if this hot streak goes the way of its predecessors -- immediately answered by a slump, forever tethering Morel to a .600 OPS -- the Sox will be more than justified to take a good hard look at third base, because it's one of a few areas they can realistically upgrade with their budget constraints. Morel has benefited from flying under the radar, but if he doesn't stand out in September, he'll likely find himself under a microscope.
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morel post-ASB
.271/.309/.388. or essentially what should be expected of him. of course, per your point, he needs to maintain/improve that this month.
Morel
I havent really been a Morel guy from the start, I dont see where he fits long term, he isnt gonna steal bases, he isnt gonna draw enough walks, he wont hit for enough power…. nice glove, might turn into a guy who can hit for some average but very very replacable, he shouldnt be a long term answer to much of anything.
How long term are you looking?
In the near term, he looks like a solid value for a team needing to trim their budget.
that's what I was thinking
Sox not only cannot move Rios, Dunn, Peavy, they also cannot easily move cheapo guys like Beckham and Morel because they need them to balance that $89 for 11 guys, none of whom is named Buerhle.
by son_of_sophist on Sep 7, 2011 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions
Peavy hasn't been as bad as Dunn and Rios this year.
They pretty much had to staple his arm back to his body and he has still produced 2.9 fWAR thus far. His FIP of 3.21 and xFIP of 3.5 are very respectable.
This space is available.
depends
if the sox like him they have to give him another year, he is cheap, they have other areas to worry about and like you said payroll will be an issue but…
i dont have a list of available free agent 3rd basemen coming up for 2012 but a 1-3 mil flyer on a “guy like” casey blake, edwin encarnacion could yield a much bigger offensive return then morel will likely provide
The list of 3rd basemen look awful
Aramis is the best available. After him, there are way too many busts and awful players.
3 things in life I care about
Sox, Colts, and Hawks.
Lifetime banners: '05, '07, '10
I would probably rather have Morel at the minimum than any of these guys at the prices they would respectively demand
Per Cots
Wilson Betemit KC
Casey Blake LAD *
Eric Chavez NYY
Mark DeRosa SF
Greg Dobbs PHI
Edwin Encarnacion TOR *
Wes Helms FLA
Melvin Mora ARI
Aramis Ramirez CHC
Miguel Tejada SF
Omar Vizquel CWS
a VERY AVERAGE Sox Machine refugee
i don't know.
that vizquel kid has always intrigued me.
"michael gilhaney is an example of a man that is nearly banjaxed from the principal of the atomic theory. would it astonish you to hear that he is nearly half a bicycle?" ~~ sergeant pluck
this list is truly awful.
id take morel over every one of them but aramis… and you’d have to pay him like 40 million. so yah- give morel another shot unless you get a hot shot 3rd baseman in any deal you make.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
Blake, Vizquel, Tejada, and Mora either are or should be considering retirement
Helms and Dobbs probably aren’t everyday players. Chavez and DeRosa are too injury-prone. Betemit is Betemit. Unless that list is missing a few guys, Morel seems like an easy decision, barring a trade.
a VERY AVERAGE Sox Machine refugee
Joe Crede!
Joe Buck is just White Noise to me. It’s like the game is being called by a CD of whale songs. - mechanical turk
He'll be at Soxfest, so that's something.
by mechanical turk on Sep 7, 2011 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions
oh man! soxfest! its like christmas in the kenwo household. lol
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
yep
that list is bad, but you never know who may become available via getting cut (chone figgins… guys like that who you could PRAY for a rebound year from) and of course trades…
but given the outlook of whats currently gonna be available… yea morel probably gets one more year to see if he can hit
Figgins is done.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
Ohuddy
Joe Buck is just White Noise to me. It’s like the game is being called by a CD of whale songs. - mechanical turk
I was gonna say that about Helms
"Hawk Harrelson: Annoying even the hearing impaired": Teahenny Penny paraphrasing Chisoxfan1473
by NorthSidePaulie on Sep 7, 2011 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Here's the problem with upgrading
If you imagine that Morel, in his second year, will make marginal improvements, along the lines of what he’s done in the second half — let’s say, an OPS just under .700 and good defense — that puts him right in the middle of the pack of third basemen (based on players with at least 350 PA this year). If you include his defense, you’ve got a guy squarely in the middle of the pack.
If you want (relative) certainty, in terms of replacing him, it’s likely to cost a lot—too much, in terms of players or contract. If you take a chance on another middle-of-the-pack guy, well . . . easy to lose that bet.
I’d guess Morel is safe, unless some Quentin or Floyd trade yields a real good bat over there. What I’d like to see is the addition of some kind of supersub type who can push both Morel and Beckham. And, oh yea, a manager willing to make that move, and a GM who determines roster moves for the manager rather than wringing his hands.
Can Lillibridge play some third?
I’d been thinking about this and it makes sense to have him play more infield next year, assuming they aren’t stupid enough to bring back Omar. Play Lillibridge around the infield as a super-sub, have Q (assuming he’s around), Rios, De Aza and Viciedo split AB’s across the three OF spots with Q and Viciedo (and Konerko) getting the occasional DH day.
no
"Rooting for the Twins is just a roundabout way of rooting for a first-round playoff bye for the Yankees." by big_fun
for pinch: see the situation that occured at the end of the game a week or so ago.
you wouldn’t want to start a game with him there.
So who backs up third...
assuming Omar is finally done.
escobar
Joe Buck is just White Noise to me. It’s like the game is being called by a CD of whale songs. - mechanical turk
I guess that's an option if he makes the team as a backup infielder.
Though I don’t think he’s ever played the position to my knowledge.
Then why would Lillibridge be a definite no?
Tdogg? I’m no insinuating he starts 150 games there, but in a Zobrist-like capacity, I think he could play a handful of games there. Using him more in the infield would free up OF at-bats for others.
why wouldn't he be any good there? i don't remember him sucking balls in his days as an infielder
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
that was maybe unfair,
but i’d think if he was capable then he would have played some third this season.
I think you maybe giving
the White Sox a little too much credit. They haven’t exactly made the best personnel decisions this year.
by Pumpkin McPastry on Sep 7, 2011 6:22 PM CDT up reply actions
i've already gone through the larry gamut about this
so I can warn you. He’ll be fine.
Joe Buck is just White Noise to me. It’s like the game is being called by a CD of whale songs. - mechanical turk
now that we've settled that,
who will be the backup bullpen catcher? this is salas’ age 50 season. i know he’s been the model of consistency since he came to the white sox (excepting, of course, the unfortunate incident in KC when he tried to conquer the waterfall) but i really wonder if he can hold up for the full 162 next season.
by larry on Sep 7, 2011 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
if you're talking about a backup
infielder, then you’re right. Not much of a conversation.
But if you cannot upgrade Morel or Beckham, and they are OPSing below .600 in June, I’d like to have the option of plugging in a bench player who’s a little more than a tired veteran or a utility type.
by son_of_sophist on Sep 7, 2011 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions
you want a bench player that's not a tired veteran or a utility type?
let me know when you see a team that has one anywhere in the mlb
Joe Buck is just White Noise to me. It’s like the game is being called by a CD of whale songs. - mechanical turk
He plays a power position, whereas Rios and Beckham do not.
Jim – I agree with your overall point, but was curious about this. Do you think third base will continue to be a power position? In the most recent four seasons, third basemen have only out-slugged second basemen by .15. That’s less than half what it was a decade ago. In 2011, second basemen are out-slugging third basemen by a couple points.
a VERY AVERAGE Sox Machine refugee
wow
those numbers are very surprising but I think it speaks to the wealth of the 2nd base position currently in the MLB and key 3rd base bats being hurt for big stretches this year Longoria and Zimmerman come to mind among others.
I think it also speaks to the increased value placed on defense.
Guys who might have stuck before the defensive revelations are now being moved off the position because they are such butchers.
But yes, I agree with the opinion that third is no longer the “power position” it is routinely made out to be. Second base is a pretty good comp nowadays.
As stated elsewhere in this thread
Looks like CFs have smoked both 3B and 2B this year at the plate.
by Pumpkin McPastry on Sep 7, 2011 6:26 PM CDT up reply actions
I really like Morel
I think he has more upside than a certain 3B we had. While he won’t have the power, I think his average, defense and ability to get on base will be better. If some of the singles he has turns into doubles, then his OPS will look better. If he can OPS .750 while keeping gold glove caliber defense, we could have a very solid corner infielder for 8 or 9 years.
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Sox, Colts, and Hawks.
Lifetime banners: '05, '07, '10
Thou shalt not take a jab at a man who "put the World Series on his shoulders."
"Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring. Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. It's more democratic" - Crash Davis
by Servant2LordBeckham on Sep 7, 2011 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions
that's the sad thing
It was then I realized vegans can’t be trusted
by Scotty Ballgame on Sep 7, 2011 1:03 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Crede's upside >>>>>>>> Morel's upside
Unless you think Morel has a 30-homer season in his back pocket.
Whales! Squids! Sharks! They're everywhere! Hello, I am Poseidon! Now, when people told me I was crazy that thinly sliced roast beef would be a delicious fast-food option, I knew it was the greatest idea, and you can thank me later for Arby's.
by Jim Margalus on Sep 7, 2011 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions
i figured morel to hit 12 or so this year... so his piss poor power has troubled me.
what do you think his cap is? 18-20?
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
I'd say 15 would be a very good year for him.
Whales! Squids! Sharks! They're everywhere! Hello, I am Poseidon! Now, when people told me I was crazy that thinly sliced roast beef would be a delicious fast-food option, I knew it was the greatest idea, and you can thank me later for Arby's.
Agree.
I think 20 would be a dream season.
i think 50 would get him mvp
Joe Buck is just White Noise to me. It’s like the game is being called by a CD of whale songs. - mechanical turk
for the record
I was one of the biggest crede bashers of all time, his upside however was tremendously higher then morel’s
crede
wasnt he a two time mvp in the minors and like a triple crown threat in those seasons… i admit it was in my young sox fan days but his hype was a lot more then morels
all that may be true.
doesn’t equate to a tremendously higher upside. a bit higher due to crede’s power. otherwise, pretty much the same player.
I keep thinking of the .310/.342/.568 Crede posted the calendar year before his back crapped out.
That was a fun time.
Whales! Squids! Sharks! They're everywhere! Hello, I am Poseidon! Now, when people told me I was crazy that thinly sliced roast beef would be a delicious fast-food option, I knew it was the greatest idea, and you can thank me later for Arby's.
35, September 1 to September 1.
Arbitrary, I know, but after he came back from the broken finger, he was a different hitter. Greg Walker should try that with Beckham.
Whales! Squids! Sharks! They're everywhere! Hello, I am Poseidon! Now, when people told me I was crazy that thinly sliced roast beef would be a delicious fast-food option, I knew it was the greatest idea, and you can thank me later for Arby's.
Just one.
Whales! Squids! Sharks! They're everywhere! Hello, I am Poseidon! Now, when people told me I was crazy that thinly sliced roast beef would be a delicious fast-food option, I knew it was the greatest idea, and you can thank me later for Arby's.
Walk and Beckham playing a game of "ouch, ouch, you're on my hair"
Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.
this
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Highly underrated, Mark Kotsay became the best defensive designated hitter in American League history in 2010.
by onlysoxfaninbasel on Sep 7, 2011 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions
Blum hit a homer the other night. I saw the replay and thought the swing looked familiar.
Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.
he was pretty clutch. i don't know how you can dispute that.
and i don’t even care for crede. but late in the game he came through plenty of times.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
i was joking, but yeah,
watching him, i generally ‘felt’ there was a better chance of him bringing home the runner, whether or not that was actually true or not.
.792 career OPS with RISP as opposed to a career .748 overall.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
selective sampling, what about years 04-06
Jim Thome sponsor(s) this page.
Highly underrated, Mark Kotsay became the best defensive designated hitter in American League history in 2010.
by onlysoxfaninbasel on Sep 7, 2011 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions
In the year window I referenced:
RISP: .372/.421/.527
Bases loaded: .421/.381/.895
Whales! Squids! Sharks! They're everywhere! Hello, I am Poseidon! Now, when people told me I was crazy that thinly sliced roast beef would be a delicious fast-food option, I knew it was the greatest idea, and you can thank me later for Arby's.
OPS w/ RISP first, followed by OPS for the season.
2006: .887 vs. .828
2005: .862 vs .756
2004: .692 vs .717
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
2005!
Joe Buck is just White Noise to me. It’s like the game is being called by a CD of whale songs. - mechanical turk
Career grannies. Not what he hit, but when he hit them.
Trying to score runs with Juan Pierre as your leadoff hitter is like trying to suture a wound in a moving car. You might still be successful -- but why make it so hard on yourself?
As many as Andre Dawson
Trying to score runs with Juan Pierre as your leadoff hitter is like trying to suture a wound in a moving car. You might still be successful -- but why make it so hard on yourself?
If he can do a .700 OPS
with above avg defense at his cost next year book it. Move on to the problem.
"Rooting for the Twins is just a roundabout way of rooting for a first-round playoff bye for the Yankees." by big_fun
by Tdogg on Sep 7, 2011 12:08 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
My thoughts exactly.
And I don’t think that’s really a stretch. If Beckham gets a pass again, I don’t see how you don’t give Morel at least one more season. There’s plenty of other problems on this team, I’m willing to give Morel the benefit of the doubt and see what he can do after a rookie season of learning.
Beckham has also headed in the wrong direction...
for two straight seasons now while Morel struggled in his rookie year. I’m much more worried about Beckham than I am about Morel.
Yes, he had a nice hot streak at the end of the year.
But I don’t think there’s any disputing that overall he has gone backwards offensively two years in a row now. Look I’m as big a Beckham fan as anyone. I’ve openly rooted for him more than most any player on the team. But it’s pretty clear that right now he’s not even close to the hitter that we saw in 2009.
i'm disputing it.
from july through the end of the season last year:
.308/.370/.497
that’s a lot more than a ‘nice hot streak at the end of the year’.
Feels like forever ago.
Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.
People always talk about the league adjusting to a player
and the player having to respond. I have no idea how true that is, but it seems like Beckham takes an awful long time to figure out how to adjust.
Given yesterday's "organizational" chart
It’s managerial and organizational negligence, plain and simple.
Whose address do I ask for?
White Sox 2011: The season of extraneous body parts.
JR's
"Hawk Harrelson: Annoying even the hearing impaired": Teahenny Penny paraphrasing Chisoxfan1473
by NorthSidePaulie on Sep 7, 2011 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions
fangraphs has bacon fifth-worst (and joint forth-worst) after last night.
-17.3 now.
donkey moved to third too. now at -18.8
that’s quite a leap for one game, isn’t it? first time i’ve come across this stat, so don’t know how much it varies.
remember when aaron hill was sooo awesome.
by obnoxious american on Sep 7, 2011 1:10 PM CDT reply actions
he's done a pretty bang up job since going over to the d-backs.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
So has...DAN HUDSON.
Thanks for that, KenWo. Just keep reminding us.
"MY NAME IS YOANIS CESPEDEZ YOU KILLED MY FATHER" WHAT!
lol. sorry.
but hill is hitting .392/.429/.627. sure its only 56 plate appearances- but they are in the pennant race so its at a very opportune time
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
The desert has a reputation for giving new life to players
It’s the dry heat.
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by ThreeRunHomer on Sep 7, 2011 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions
Sorting by wOBA
CF hitting has been much better across the board than 3B or 2B, which have been roughly equal this year. Just an interesting thing to look at given your characterization of 3B as a “power position” compared to 2B or 3B. Given the current set of players in MLB, that is not the case.
by Pumpkin McPastry on Sep 7, 2011 1:15 PM CDT reply actions
For a year of total suckage on the south side, position player wise, Morel has lived up to his nickname:
the least interest man in the world. I’m okay with him. Wish he were better, sure, but he ain’t why we’re missing the playoffs.
To my knowledge, certain things were not known.
-James Murdoch
by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Sep 7, 2011 1:37 PM CDT reply actions
There is no "I" in "Morel".
However, the “I” in “Rios” blots out the sun.
"MY NAME IS YOANIS CESPEDEZ YOU KILLED MY FATHER" WHAT!
by winningugly on Sep 7, 2011 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Pierre LF, Ramirez SS, Konerko 1B, AJ C, Rios CF, De Aza RF, Viciedo DH, Vizquel 2B, Morel 3B, Danks P
Rios and Vizquel - brutal.
At least we are not seeing Dunn. Wait, he’s a hot walker.
"MY NAME IS YOANIS CESPEDEZ YOU KILLED MY FATHER" WHAT!
Rios has been un-terrible the last week or so.
Though only one XBH and zero walks. But, a six game hitting streak. Maybe he can finish strong-ish?
I shant be misled a second time
if we played at target field
we wouldnt be having a rios problem this year.
"The words "becorned can" just beminded my fuck." - SkanchoDanza
First Rios, now AJ in the cleanup spot.
Is this a joke? That one day with Viciedo there was just to toy with our emotions wasn’t it?
True.
They should probably drop him to 9th to take the pressure off. At least until he gets his average back above .400.
all i know is he hasn't swung at a first pitch in ages.
"michael gilhaney is an example of a man that is nearly banjaxed from the principal of the atomic theory. would it astonish you to hear that he is nearly half a bicycle?" ~~ sergeant pluck
by BuehrleMan on Sep 7, 2011 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks, Dr. Fishman.
The policeman who jumps from a bridge to a plane is Detective John McClane, a.k.a. Bruce Willis. He’s just the star of the whole movie series and stuff, no big deal or anything. -Cruiser

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