Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus on the top White Sox prospects of 2012

by larry on Jan 16, 2012 6:01 AM CST in White Sox Minors

Maybe Jhan Marinez is ranked this high because of his outreach to kids from Boston.

Baseball Prospectus published its list, authored by Kevin Goldstein, which includes 20 names:

Four-Star Prospects
1. Addison Reed, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
2. Nestor Molina, RHP
3. Trayce Thompson, OF
4. Jake Petricka, RHP
5. Simon Castro, RHP
6. Keenyn Walker, OF
Two-Star Prospects
7. Eduardo Escobar, SS
8. Jhan Marinez, RHP
9. Myles Jaye, RHP
10. Tyler Saladino, SS
11. Andre Rienzo, RHP

12. Juan Silverio, 3B
13. Jared Mitchell, OF
14. Brandon Short, OF
15. Pedro Hernandez, LHP
16. Gregory Infante, RHP
17. Erik Johnson, RHP
18. Michael Blanke, C
19. Dylan Axelrod, RHP
20. Ozzie Martinez, SS

Note that #12-20 are not necessarily Two Star Prospects, as Goldstein does not assign stars after #11. Some commentary from me after the jump.

One name that hasn't been on other lists is Myles Jaye, who was acquired from the Blue Jays in the recent Jason Frasor trade. That's probably more of a function of the trade being recent than anything else. He just turned 20 and completed his first year as a professional in the Short-Season Rookie Ball. He's pure projection at this point and it's an aggressive ranking but, in this system, it's hard to argue that he wouldn't fit in the back of the top ten.

Another name not on (most) other lists is Mike Blanke. I had him in my "next ten or so" so I think this is an appropriate ranking. Notable for his absence is Kevan Smith, the catcher John Sickels liked for his top ten. That #7 ranking was one of the only placements by Sickels with which I disagreed and it appears he's on his own on Smith.

Another discrepancy is Dylan Axelrod. He's at the back of Goldstein's list but ranked #8 by Sickels. I didn't rank him so I think Goldstein's ranking is about right.

Goldstein joins Baseball America with a relatively high ranking of Juan Silverio. I was a bit perplexed at seeing him at #9 on BA's list and #12 also strikes me as too high. Goldstein calls him a "third baseman". I think that's where we disagree. I don't see him sticking there and I'm unsure if his bat is good enough for another position.

Ozzie Martinez also appears to be a divisive guy. BA has him at #10, Goldstein has him at #20 and Sickels didn't rank him. I can see Martinez as a top 20 guy (he too was in my also-rans) but I have trouble with ranking a guy who I'm not sure is even a major league utility player in a top ten of even the barren White Sox system.

Goldstein does not like Hector Santiago. Not ranking a guy Sickels and I both put in our top five is certainly interesting and I'd like to hear more from him about his reasoning.

Jhan Marinez makes Goldstein's top ten, just like he did in BA's top ten. Sickels didn't rank him. I guess I'm in the middle. He's a guy who could be a very good reliever if he figures it out and that's probably the reason for the wide range of opinion.

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Comments

Thank you.

"People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage."

John Kenneth Galbraith

by Chiburb on Jan 16, 2012 6:26 AM CST reply actions

Yep

Thanks.

"Rooting for the Twins is just a roundabout way of rooting for a first-round playoff bye for the Yankees." by big_fun

by Tdogg on Jan 16, 2012 7:04 AM CST up reply actions

thanks, larry

on smith, are you waiting to see him against older/better competition, or just not as impressed with the tools in the first place?

by evenyoudorn on Jan 16, 2012 8:32 AM CST reply actions

Definitely need to see him at higher levels.

He was a 23 year old playing against mostly teenagers.

by polodude017 on Jan 16, 2012 10:46 AM CST up reply actions

thanks

i think of him as one of the more exciting prospects, along with saladino. here’s hoping they can stick at their respective positions, with the way they’ve been able to swing the bat so far.

by evenyoudorn on Jan 16, 2012 11:07 AM CST up reply actions

I'd wait til we get some data on him at full-season ball before getting too excited.

by polodude017 on Jan 16, 2012 12:59 PM CST up reply actions

Take a look at how Mike Blanke transitioned to full-season ball for an example.

by polodude017 on Jan 16, 2012 1:07 PM CST up reply actions

yeah, i'm using "exciting" to mean "sparkly" or moreso than can't-miss

thanks again

by evenyoudorn on Jan 16, 2012 1:42 PM CST up reply actions

there aren't a lot of guys who are 6’4, 240 in rookie ball.

couple that physical maturity with a more advanced approach to the strike zone and he should be bludgeoning pitchers in the pioneer league.

i don’t have much of an issue with someone saying he’s a top 20 prospect. flip him with blanke, if you like. but when he starts making top ten lists, i think people begin to really overrate what a guy is doing in a hitter’s league where he’s 3 years older than the average player.

and i’m very suspicious of pioneer league numbers in general. you know who smith’s numbers look like? matt inouye. luis sierra. francisco hernandez. adam ricks. ever heard of them?

by larry on Jan 16, 2012 2:30 PM CST up reply actions

BA also not on smith bandwagon

@Jaypers413 (IL): Between Kevan Smith and Mike Blanke, who came closer to your top 10, and who has better skills behind the dish? Thanks.

John Manuel: Blanke; scouts are all over the place on him but he’s younger, he’s got just as much raw power and he’s got much better defensive tools. I got a 70 on Blanke’s throwing arm, though others have given it lower grades. Smith’s hitting ability is superior but Blanke has real raw power and has a chance to be a Mark Parent type, if not a bit more.

by larry on Jan 17, 2012 2:50 PM CST up reply actions

The sox aren't looking for a Mark Parent type player. They wanted THE Mark Parent.

Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.

by MarketMaker on Jan 17, 2012 9:07 PM CST up reply actions

Hector Santiago

He played shortly with the Sox last year and did well.There is a large chance he will spend some or all of this year with the team.To not mention him in the top 20 calls into question all of his other choices.Also Silverio has as much chance of playing at third base in the majors as John Gilmore.

by Lil Jimmy on Jan 16, 2012 9:21 AM CST reply actions

I prefer larry's/Sickles' lists

which put more consideration in likelihood the prospects will actually hit their ceiling.

by 3E8 on Jan 16, 2012 10:26 AM CST reply actions

Jordan Danks

What’s been going on with him?

Funny how the knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seats.

by abock15 on Jan 16, 2012 10:35 AM CST reply actions

It seems he has been exposed...

He lost a lot of momentum with poor offensive showings in Charlotte these last two years. He reminds me of Mike Hessman without the same amount of power—lots of strikeouts. He’s 25 and not likely to be given a real shot at the MLB level.

by Loch on Jan 16, 2012 10:51 AM CST up reply actions

I think he could get a shot as a fourth OF.

But he’s probably not going to get a shot at anything past that unless he can improve his approach at the plate.

by polodude017 on Jan 16, 2012 10:53 AM CST up reply actions

Maybe it's just that I haven't seen enough of these guys in person, but I have a hard time agreeing with some of these rankings.

I like Goldstein, he usually has some good stuff, but Petricka (a guy who struggled at high-A at 23) over Castro (who was very good at AA at 22)? Sure Castro has struggled at AAA, but I’d say he’s got a better chance to make it at this point, especially considering it sounds like he has two solid pitches and is working on a third, as opposed to Petricka who really doesn’t have anything to go with his fastball at this point.

And I really don’t understand what everyone has against Tyler Saladino. Unless they are convinced that the power he showed last year is totally going to disappear, he should definitely be in the top 5.

by polodude017 on Jan 16, 2012 10:52 AM CST reply actions

Left a comment Re: Santiago's absence and Saladino's low ranking

If Goldstein replies, I’ll post it here…

by gnix on Jan 16, 2012 11:04 AM CST reply actions

Goldstein's reply sounded like he was going with other people's views on Santiago.

He says Santiago got alot of middle relief projections. He says Saladino is farther away and not as good defensively as Escobar.

by Rick B on Jan 16, 2012 12:52 PM CST up reply actions

I dunno, from what I've heard about Santiago's stuff...

it sounds like he could at least be a late inning guy. Low to mid-90s heater and the screwball seems to have given guys fits. Certainly one of the more interesting arms in this system.

On Saladino, yeah his defense is probably never going to be as good as Escobar’s, but his bat is light years ahead. Escobar’s bat will probably keep him from being a regular, Saladino’s glove won’t do the same. At worst he moves to 2nd where he should be above average defensively.

by polodude017 on Jan 16, 2012 1:02 PM CST up reply actions

he said pedro hernandez has a 7th inning ceiling.

i’m fine with someone saying they don’t think santiago’s a starter – i don’t really think anyone other molina on that list is (maybe castro, but i’m still forming my opinion on him). and i don’t think santiago necessarily is, either. but when you have pedro hernandez on the list and no santiago, it’s curious.

by larry on Jan 16, 2012 1:10 PM CST up reply actions