My optimistically pessimistic 2012 White Sox Outlook

by ChiSox1023 on Jan 18, 2012 6:32 PM CST

The pain and suffering that we as sox fans went through was flat out dreadful. I would have been more satisfied with them losing 100 games rather than them staying consistanly 4-6 games out of first place stringing us along, but i digress.....

Going into this Spring Training it is tough to feel overly excited about the club Robin Ventura will trot out on Opening Day. Without miracle comeback seasons from Peavy, Dunn, Rios, and Beckham then there is a diminutive chance this team can compete for the AL central crown. But we have all heard this same pessimism on multiple sites, radio shows, and in newspapers. I want to talk about how this team could have a rebound year like the Arizona Diamondbacks did under a similarly unexperienced manager in Kirk Gibson.

Beside the fact that it would be extremely hard to have as bad a year as Rios, Dunn, and Peavy, there are multiple reasons to believe this team could be improved this year in some areas. I can't help but smile when thinking about Dayan Viciedo swinging out of shoes and putting baseballs into orbit at the Cell. If healthy I would be shocked if he doesn't club at least 25-30 homers. Another reason to be excited is our young pitchers. Addison Reed looks like he could be a big time closer in the game for years. I believe that is why Kenny was so quick to pull the trigger on the Santos deal. Zach Stewart interests me as well because his fastball has a nice sink on it that plays well at the cell.

Trading Gavin Floyd could benefit the Sox greatly as well. I feel the team has plenty of pitching depth to be able to pull of a trade and I certainly wouldn't mind landing a nice 2nd base or CF prospect. Expect Tyler Kuhn to get some looks in the future as well after tearing up double a pitching last year at Birmingham. Axelrod Steward and Molina are all viable rotation options should Kenny decide to trade Floyd. I am extremely excited to see De Aza, Viciedo, Reed, Flowers, and Lillibridge all get considerably more playing time. This is the reason for my cautious optimism.

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Comments

peavy didn't have a bad year.

by craigws on Jan 18, 2012 8:35 PM CST reply actions

it wasn't 14 million dollars good though, either.

by e-gus on Jan 18, 2012 8:59 PM CST up reply actions

It was 16 million and he had a bad year

It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity

by Rhubarb on Jan 18, 2012 9:08 PM CST up reply actions

i wouldn't argue that, but he doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as the other two.

peavy actually contributed.

by craigws on Jan 18, 2012 9:36 PM CST up reply actions

I agree he shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath as those two but there is no way you can say he didn't have a bad year

It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity

by Rhubarb on Jan 18, 2012 9:42 PM CST up reply actions

depends on your expectations.

he pulled 2.9 fWAR out of somewhere. if you look at his salary you’d rightly be disappointed, but when you consider the injury and the nature of it, i think you’d take that and hope for better next season.

by craigws on Jan 18, 2012 10:50 PM CST up reply actions

If you believe he was worth 2.9 WAR, then he almost earned his $16MM.

"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"

by U-God on Jan 18, 2012 11:00 PM CST up reply actions

B-R has him at 1.2

That’s more where I’m leaning. By Peavy standards, and what he’s costing the team, it’s a bad year. By Dunn and Rios standards it looks pretty rosy.

by Shoeless In SC on Jan 19, 2012 10:13 AM CST up reply actions

i'd maybe split the difference between the two,

watching him, i felt he got screwed over a lot last year. bad luck.
again with the standards though, i dunno what you expect from someone who’s had experimental surgery.

by craigws on Jan 19, 2012 12:11 PM CST up reply actions

What makes you point to bad luck?

His BABIP was .317, league average was like .302…just a bit above average. He had a horrible or “bad” year with men on base and that accounts for his ERA and FIP discrepancy. This was probably because of his mental makeup following injury and not being able to compute that he wasn’t the same pitcher he used to be and also it points to the fact that hitters hit him fucking hard. I think he will be better this year, if healthy, perhaps because he is starting to realize he is a new version of the old Jake Peavy.

It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity

by Rhubarb on Jan 19, 2012 2:03 PM CST up reply actions

at least that would be my hope

He is no longer overpowering but in the process has developed better command.

It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity

by Rhubarb on Jan 19, 2012 2:04 PM CST up reply actions

i dunno what to really point towards,

just felt watching him that he was having bad luck.
i’d agree that he needed to make adjustments and he didn’t, so the bad luck is arguably self-induced.

by craigws on Jan 19, 2012 4:33 PM CST up reply actions

he sure looks like the same pitcher he used to be when he's in the wind-up.

if his problem is mental makeup, then he must be the smallest mental midget ever to have a .400+ OPS difference between bases empty and runners on. instead of vaginitis, i’d look to mechanicsitis. he frequently had difficulty finding his release point in the first innings of games. and he frequently would lose his release point as the pitch count added up. the former may be attributable to him not throwing side sessions between starts, though that’s more of a guess than anything. the cause of the latter is probably the obvious one. the more problematic issue of ineffectiveness from the stretch may also be the lack of side sessions, or not focusing on pitching from the stretch in the ones he did have prior to their cessation, as most pitchers predominantly throw from the wind-up.

by larry on Jan 19, 2012 5:49 PM CST up reply actions

i see you took the trouble of asking him personally.

by craigws on Jan 19, 2012 6:51 PM CST up reply actions

Good call

It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity

by Rhubarb on Jan 19, 2012 7:25 PM CST up reply actions

You can tell he beats himself up when hitters get on base too

It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity

by Rhubarb on Jan 19, 2012 7:38 PM CST up reply actions

to illustrate the issue.

these are the release points for the five main starters for the white sox, in five successive days and all at the cell. and peavy’s is from one of his best starts.

by larry on Jan 19, 2012 10:27 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

having some different release points is not necessarily an issue. you may deliberately do that for certain pitches and maybe situationally, as well.

but you look at a guy like floyd or humber particularly and you see a pretty tight range. and i think it’s generally advantageous to have a consistent release point and consistent delivery.

here’s a “bad” peavy outing.

and here’s a peavy outing from 2007. otherwise known as his cy young winning season.

by larry on Jan 19, 2012 10:36 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Has he had a good year

On the White Sox?

by JPSoprano80 on Jan 18, 2012 10:37 PM CST up reply actions

This post didn't make a whole lot of sense.

Nor did it convince me to be optimistic about the Sox in 2012. Especially if Floyd is traded as well, because the depth really isn’t there.

by Shoeless In SC on Jan 19, 2012 10:15 AM CST reply actions

Depends

Considering right now as starters the sox have Peavy Floyd Danks Humber Sale Stewart Axelrod and Molina I believe they have the depth to make a deal for Peavy. I think that moving forward trading Floyd could benefit the team and even this year it could benefit them financially and possibly performance wise. Who knows what Stewart or Axelrod can do in a full season..

by ChiSox1023 on Jan 19, 2012 12:32 PM CST up reply actions

to make a deal for floyd* not peavy

by ChiSox1023 on Jan 19, 2012 12:32 PM CST up reply actions

stewart or axelrod cannot do as much as floyd.

and peavy is gone after next year. which means for 2013 – humber would have to not fall apart, sale would have to stick in the rotation and two out of three of stewart, axelrod and molina will have to develop into something better than serviceable.
danks would probably have to step-up to ‘ace’ status to cover the shortfall.

by craigws on Jan 19, 2012 12:48 PM CST up reply actions

Take out Floyd and you have...

Peavy
Danks
Humber
Sale
Stewart/Axelrod

The only one without question marks in that rotation is Danks, and he looked downright awful at times last year.

Peavy is an injury-reinjury risk. Humber could be a one-year wonder. Sale has never started in the majors before. Stewart lacks a starter’s repertoire and Axelrod has hardly pitched above AAA.

by Shoeless In SC on Jan 19, 2012 5:01 PM CST up reply actions

question marks

I agree Peavy is an injury risk but then again he is a cy young winner… He could easily come out and rebound. You say Sale has never started but lets not forget he has made major league hitters look foolish many times (Mauer). He could be a legit ACE for this team.

by ChiSox1023 on Jan 19, 2012 5:52 PM CST up reply actions