Barry Larkin lone Hall of Fame inductee for 2012
by U-God on Jan 9, 2012 2:17 PM CST
in Events
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PrintYeah, I know technically Ron Santo will also be enshrined this summer, but dead people can't give induction speeches. Larkin managed to appear on 86.4% of the ballots. This is pretty impressive seeing as he was only on 62.1% of them last year. Hall of Fame voters, you make tremendous sense.
Jack Morris looks like he'll be sneaking his undeserving self in before everything is sad and done. Morris is up to 66.7% with two years left. Jeff Bagwell is up to 56%, a good improvement on the 41.7% from last January. Tim Raines gained 11.2%, reaching a new high of 48.7%.
The only new candidate who received enough votes to stay on the ballot another year was Bernie Williams (9.6%). The rest, and Juan Gonzalez, are all now cast aside. With the glut of great players soon to be eligible, it won't be shocking to see Rafael Palmeiro (12.6%) fall off the ballot in two years or so.
| Name |
2012
|
SSS
|
2011
|
| Barry Larkin |
86.4%
|
82.3%
|
62.1%
|
| Jack Morris |
66.7%
|
40.0%
|
53.5%
|
| Jeff Bagwell |
56.0%
|
73.8%
|
41.7%
|
| Lee Smith |
50.6%
|
36.9%
|
45.3%
|
| Tim Raines |
48.7%
|
73.8%
|
37.5%
|
| Alan Trammell |
36.8%
|
50.0%
|
24.3%
|
| Edgar Martinez |
36.5%
|
70.0%
|
32.9%
|
| Fred McGriff |
23.9%
|
32.3%
|
17.9%
|
| Larry Walker |
22.9%
|
24.6%
|
20.3%
|
| Mark McGwire |
19.5%
|
31.5%
|
19.8%
|
| Don Mattingly |
17.8%
|
26.1%
|
13.6%
|
| Dale Murphy |
14.5%
|
19.2%
|
12.6%
|
| Rafael Palmeiro |
12.6%
|
20.0%
|
11.0%
|
| Bernie Williams |
9.6%
|
20.0%
|
n/a
|
| Juan Gonzalez |
4.0%
|
3.8%
|
5.2%
|
| Vinny Castilla |
1.0%
|
2.3%
|
n/a
|
| Tim Salmon |
0.9%
|
5.3%
|
n/a
|
| Bill Mueller |
0.7%
|
0%
|
n/a
|
| Brad Radke |
0.3%
|
1.5%
|
n/a
|
| Javy Lopez |
0.2%
|
3.1%
|
n/a
|
| Eric Young |
0.2%
|
1.5%
|
n/a
|
| Jeromy Burnitz |
0%
|
1.5%
|
n/a
|
| Brian Jordan |
0%
|
1.5%
|
n/a
|
| Terry Mulholland |
0%
|
0%
|
n/a
|
| Phil Nevin |
0%
|
2.3%
|
n/a
|
| Ruben Sierra |
0%
|
1.5%
|
n/a
|
| Tony Womack |
0%
|
1.5%
|
n/a
|
UPDATE (4:01 EST by Jim):
To the left, I've compiled the BBWAA results, comparing them to our vote totals, as well as the BBWAA's results from the year before.
Some observations:
*Tim Raines received the biggest year-to-year increase of his candidacy period.
*Jack Morris' support surged after holding steady for two straight years around 53 percent. I'm guessing the lack of Bert Blyleven, and no other comparable pitchers, served him well.
*Alan Trammell got a sizable boost, which makes sense since he's quite comparable to Larkin.
*Mark McGwire saw his support dropped, but Rafael Palmeiro's support increased. That's a lesson to all players: Never, ever admit PED use, even if you test positive.
*Edgar Martinez, my personal sentimental no-doubter of this ballot, didn't gain many votes, which might put him in rough waters the next few years when Barry Bonds and Co. roll through.
*Jeff Bagwell looks like he's destined for induction, but given that doubts over his PED usage ended up being the big debate this year, I have no idea how people are going to look at him when the known users arrive on the ballot. He could either be two years out or 10 years out.
And speaking of the ballots the next two years, look who's coming to dinner:
2013: Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Curt Schilling, Kenny Lofton, David Wells.
2014: Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Jeff Kent, Mike Mussina, Moises Alou.
2015: Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Gary Sheffield, Nomar Garciaparra, Carlos Delgado.
48 comments
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Comments
Prediction based on nothing:
Morris has hit his peak, will only fall from here.
BBWA voted to the score.
"People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage."
John Kenneth Galbraith
That 13.2% spike this year has me wondering.
He’s only 8.3% away with two years to make that up.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
the 2013 and certainly 2014 ballots will be quite imposing.
morris better get it out of the way next year. but it certainly would be interesting to see the gymnastics of morris but no mussina in 2014.
Yup.
Pettitte would have been an interesting comparison as well if not for the steroid taint.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
Then we can start the David Wells candidacy, right?
239 wins/108 ERA+/Good teammates. Put him in!
I think guys who get up to 67%
are pretty much guaranteed to get in even if they have just a year or two left. Guys don’t generally hover in that territory – BBWAA voters tend to see strong support from others and decide to get on board it seems. What gives me pause for Morris is the glut of candidates about to hit the ballot. Unfortunately, I think anti-steroid sentiment could just as easily buoy his candidacy as the glut harms it.
expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat
i believe i heard the only guy to get 50 percent at any time and never to get in was gil hodges.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
KG basically sums up my feelings
With addresses so we can surround houses with torches! RT @keithlaw: All HoF ballots should be made public after the announcement.
Really tired about the yearly grousing, rehashing of the new school vs. old school/SABR vs. standard-issue BBWAA debate.
fun quiz. you have to come up with the 27 players that have managed over 90% of the vote:
http://www.mentalfloss.com/quiz/quiz.php?q=1377&p=1
you will find yourself going ‘what the fuck?!?’ a lot if you play.
I missed Palmer, Carlton, Ryan and Seaver
It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity
Yeah.
No Mantle? Crazy.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
in a maybe not particularly good defense of that
the ballots back then had quite a few guys who ended up being hall of famers. a writer couldn’t have put all the guys who eventually made it onto his ballot (mantle’s year had 15 eventual HOFers). i think it’s possibly defensible for a writer to have filled out a ballot that had ten deserving guys and not include mantle because he thought some guys who had been on the ballot for years deserved to make it. also, potentially realizing that his vote for mantle may not actually matter for getting mantle in.
by larry on Jan 9, 2012 5:54 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
That's actually a pretty fair defense.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
that one, the big train, tris speaker, dimaggio!!
and rogers fucking hornsby (i know he was a prick, but come on, he had a .358 career average and only got 78.11% of the vote) were all very confusing.
koufax and bob gibson got screwed too.
anything from the early years of hall voting is difficult to criticize.
remember, in 1936 the first time eligibles included about 75 guys who would make the hall. a writer could vote for ten.
yup.
it’s actually quite impressive to have been in the first few classes. the 1936 vote pretty much got it right.
no problem with the inaugural players, i'd agree they got it spot-on.
only quibble would be the big train getting less than 90%.
Some voters thought DiMaggio was going to come back
There wasn’t the five-year waiting period at the time.
one other thing about the voting after the first few elections
was that many writers felt that after the obvious “greats” were voted in, players from the early 20th century should be elected next. when you look at the voting from the late 30s and 40s you can see this voting pattern. that’s one thing that hurt a guy like hornsby, who was recently retired. this belief was partially what you’d think it is – a bit of silly gatekeeping by the writers – but some writers did it because those players were likely closer to death. there are some nice stories from the early years, such as guys like chief bender and johnny evers getting in shortly before their deaths. and then some not so nice stories, such as guys like three finger brown and harry heilman getting in shortly after their deaths.
by larry on Jan 9, 2012 7:34 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
thanks for the knowledge.
is there any literature on the early years of the hall of fame?
i’ve just been reading the first of fay vincent’s interview books, so am interested to know more about that particular era.
bill james' book from the 90s is pretty interesting.
it’s alternatively called the politics of glory / whatever happened to the hall of fame. it gets into arguments for which players should be in and out but the more interesting stuff is about the “politics”, like how veterans committee members would get their teammates into the hall and how the selection criteria evolved. it’s not all about the early years of the hall but the parts on that are good and might lead you to other sources.
His underwear ads were dreamy.
We're all here because we're not all there.
by winningugly on Jan 9, 2012 5:43 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Barry larkin was a class act so happy for him.
His interview after the announcement was awesome. He did mention Buddy Bell as a guy that helped him as a young player. Then he and Eric Davis were talking… real cool.
As I said… I’m a Morris guy, but it might be rough sledding for him. Look at those names coming on. If you don’t really care much about steroids you could vote for 7 guys easy.
then you have to pick 3 of the leftovers and that is if you decide to max out your ballot. I think its going to take a while for Bagwell, Raines et all.
My guess is Morris makes it in the veterans committee. All of the ex players say he should be in.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
of course
the fact that cheaters are on the ballot may cause the voters to say fuck them and give their support to other guys like Morris and Raines.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
Curious to see how
Guys like Lofton and Mussina do, unsung guys that produced a borderline amount of WAR. Might have a chance in an off year like the last few, hope no one gets pushed off the ballot by overwhelming support of obvious candidates (as silly as that sounds). Methinks Jeff Kent will get in as being an asshole is overshadowed by yelling at Bonds in the dugout.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YK2-rNQfGg
can't see lofton.
think mussina is more than borderline. 85.6 fWAR, 74.8 bWAR and that 20 win season right at the end didn’t do him any harm.
Hall's not kind to starting pitchers
Mussina will probably get in but I’d be surprised if it was any time soon
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YK2-rNQfGg
How about a "Narrative" Wing for the HOF
That way future generations will have an idea of what the hell was going on with some of these inductions. Heyman can write the narrative of Jack Morrie on his plaque without someone pointing out how close to average Morris really was.
Visitors can look at the “feared” Jim Rice without some saber jerk pointing out that Tim Raines was intentionally walked nearly twice as many times and Edgar Martinez also topped him by a significant margin.
People can come and marvel at Andre Dawson. His plaque can tell of his great 1987 season where he posted a 2.7 bWAR and won MVP for a last place team, and not a word will be uttered about the 8+ WAR seasons had by Gwynn and Eric Davis that year.
The writers who vote for the ridiculousness will know their valued heroes will be in the hall, and the modern analytic people have a new disparaging term to address players as “narrative wing” guys. Everybody wins.
by MelidoPerez on Jan 10, 2012 2:33 PM CST reply actions 5 recs
Unfortunately
this is the only way Crime Dog gets in ;(
"Statistics are about as interesting as first base coaches" Jim Bouton
by Grinder Rule #42 on Jan 10, 2012 10:44 PM CST up reply actions
Excellent.
"People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage."
John Kenneth Galbraith
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