Another look at Matt Thornton's unusually hard slider
You may remember a post I wrote a month and a half ago that asked why Matt Thornton started throwing this ineffective 90-mph changeup for no good reason.
You may also remember that I had to amend the post, because PITCH f/x specialist Harry Pavlidis informed me that many of those pitches that FanGraphs classified as changeups were actually sliders -- they just weren't the sweepers he usually threw. No, these were thrown much harder, and with less movement. Neither pitch was particularly good, but there was a difference.
How did Harry know this? Because he spent the last four years (with some help from Lucas Apostoleris and others) tagging 3.2 million pitches tracked by PITCH f/x. Then, Dan Brooks at BrooksBaseball.net took that data, wrote a script, and presented it in the form of player cards featuring seasonal data with correctly tagged pitches, with a dozen ways to cut 'em up.
With this awesome tool, we can now look at Thornton's data again, and figure out when those super-speed sliders emerged and disappeared.
First, let's get our baseline. Over the last two years, Thornton threw his slider 10 percent of the time, and roughly 84-85 mph, whether the batter was a righty or lefty. He rarely threw his changeup -- 11 times in 2009, and once in 2010.
Now, let's look at April:
| Pitch | Count | Frequency | H. Mvt | V. Mvt | Mph | H. Rel | V. Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourseam (FA) | 147 | 84% | 2.20 | -10.75 | 96.41 | 2.43 | 6.52 |
| Sinker (SI) | 4 | 2% | 9.13 | -15.32 | 95.17 | 2.60 | 6.31 |
| Slider (SL) | 18 | 10% | -2.79 | -26.24 | 89.15 | 2.55 | 6.47 |
| Changeup (CH) | 7 | 4% | 2.99 | -20.65 | 90.23 | 2.64 | 6.42 |
And look where he ended up in September:
| Pitch | Count | Frequency | H. Mvt | V. Mvt | Mph | H. Rel | V. Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourseam (FA) | 136 | 71% | 3.19 | -11.05 | 96.69 | 2.59 | 6.56 |
| Sinker (SI) | 20 | 10% | 8.87 | -14.33 | 96.56 | 2.71 | 6.36 |
| Slider (SL) | 35 | 18% | -1.99 | -36.38 | 83.59 | 2.79 | 6.29 |
| Changeup (CH) | 1 | 1% | -0.32 | -17.96 | 90.19 | 2.76 | 6.30 |
They're both sliders, but they're not the same pitch. Besides the vast gap in velocity, the early slider also features a different kind of break, and a distinct release point, too.
But if you're bored by numbers and charts, there are pictures! Here's an extremely helpful graph that shows you just how much Thornton ramped up his slider velocity in comparison to the previous two years, as well as the way he slowed it down over the final two months:
Pretty cool.
You can see a little gap in the middle of his 2011 numbers, and if you go back to the pitch charts and outcomes and sort by month, you might be able to see why he went back to throwing fastballs nine out of 10 times by midseason. It's worth noting that in May and June, he threw 36 sliders, and only got one swing-and-miss to show for it.
And besides graphs, there are also maps that show the movement of a pitch from the catcher's perspective, and also from a bird's-eye view. I compared Thornton's slider against lefty (a sweeper) against Sergio Santos' slider to righties (a biting late-breaker). You can see why Santos' is a lot more difficult for hitters to resist, because it sticks to the fastball's path for longer before peeling off at the very end:
This is all awesome, and should be quite helpful to use with pitchers we need to know better. Here's another one for the road -- see Philip Humber dip his toe into the slider pool, and then embrace the pitch.
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If you have an unusually hard slider lasting longer than 4 hours, see a doctor.
by karkoVICE SQUAD on Feb 4, 2012 1:54 AM CST reply actions 5 recs
Good thing I picked "one comment" in the office pool.
by Jim Margalus on Feb 4, 2012 2:18 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Good stuff.
I bet colin just had an orgasm.
So what to infer from the data? Why throw an ineffective pitch with increasing frequency? Pain? What does this imply if Thornton is our closer?
We're all here because we're not all there.
by winningugly on Feb 4, 2012 6:14 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Excellent data
But putting ourselves in the mindset of Thornton, I theorize that it went something like this:
Thornton (to himself): I’m a closer now. hmm. I need something besides my fastball. Let me try this “slider/change” thingy. They aren’t expecting it!
Batter: Oh crap, Thornton and his fastball. Wait, what’s this? Sort of a fastball, not as fast, not a lot of movement? WOO HOO!! SMACK!
Thus Thornton goes back to setup, realizes his mistake, and is once again lights out the rest of the year.
So to answer your question, I would expect that if Thornton is named the closer, he won’t make the same mistake and we’ll see the Thornton we’ve always seen.
His slider was his wipe out pitch against lefties
For whatever reason, he was throwing it too hard when he was ineffective at the beginning of the season. He never tried to throw a change, thats just what a slider with too much velocity appeared to be.
It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity
you don't think his out pitch was and will always be his fastball?
Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That's how rich I want to be.
by MarketMaker on Feb 4, 2012 2:04 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Yup.
He doesn’t really have much of a difference throwing sliders to lefties or righties. It’s a chase pitch.
This is great
My rants about Thornton and the use of the slider last season make a lot more sense now…
"Rooting for the Twins is just a roundabout way of rooting for a first-round playoff bye for the Yankees." by big_fun
Is Thornton still the assumed closer?
Or are we staying away from that bad mojo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YK2-rNQfGg
the question was asked a couple of days ago about players that pretty much skipped the minors:
it's amazing that only a few of these players made a big impact in the major leagues
The listings beg the question; Did we bring Bacon up too soon?
White Sox 2012: Helplessly rebuilding?
i'll argue it. he was fine that first year.
he proved he can hit in the major leagues. he hasn’t been able to make adjustments since. that would have happened in 2010 and 2011 or in 2014 and 2015.
if he came up and batted .150 and never recovered you could make that point. but he came up and succeeded.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
wouldn't it have been better for him to learn to make adjustments in the minors?
or, rather, for him to fail first in a situation with a bit less pressure.
you presuppose he would have failed in the minors.
sort of a dubious presumption considering how he hit in the majors in 2009. it’s not like the list of players who succeeded in the minors and failed in the majors is short.
i presuppose that most players fail at some point in their careers.
doesn’t make much difference now, but it’ll be interesting to see how they handle the next extremely promising position player that comes through the system. maybe that’s part of why viciedo spent so long in charlotte.
beckham's problem is neither complex nor surprising. which isn't to say it's necessarily easy to correct.
he had a long(er) swing in college. he, rightly, shortened it after turning pro. he had that swing in 2009. he lost it in 2010. he mostly got it back in the second half of 2010. he lost it again in 2011. this isn’t particularly surprising considering his swing mechanics were criticized in college. when you’re focusing on swing mechanics and trying to correct it, it’s not easy. you’re facing major league pitching. major league pitching is good. it’s hard to hit major league pitching. it’s harder when you’re over-thinking on mechanics. beckham’s mechanics aren’t good and he’s simply a mess at the plate. if anything can be laid at the door of greg walker, it’s gordon beckham.
he’s back with jeff manto now. manto was basically beckham’s hitting coach in the minors. while i don’t know this for a fact, it’s likely that the shortening of beckham’s swing was the work of manto, though obviously with assists from the various hitting coaches attached to beckham’s milb teams and in spring training. manto may have better luck with beckham, if only because he may have credibility with beckham, or may instill confidence due to prior success, or may simply, for lack of a better phrase, speak the same hitting language as beckham.
i doubt much of this has anything to do with how much or little time beckham spent in the minors prior to his debut. if his handling can be criticized, it’s for post-2009. he may have benefited from the alex gordon treatment. which is to say, maybe he should have been sent down in 2010 or 2011. of course the problem there is that, unlike the royals, it’s not really a palatable option for a contending team with nothing better to play in his stead. and, of course, it’s not exactly clear that alex gordon actually benefited from the alex gordon treatment, considering the results after his demotions.
as i understand it,
the point of the minors for the players is to learn how to make adjustments and to reinforce the positive adjustments over a lot of playing time.
can you argue that beckham didn’t get enough repetition with that new swing? i have no idea whatsoever how long it takes a player to get used to a swing so that it becomes natural to them.
Wasn't aware he had worked with Manto in the past.
Good info larry. Hopefully Manto can help get him “back on the right track” as Matt Foley would say.
This is amazing since I did not read either of these articles
Synchronicity i guess
It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity
angels shoppin borjous
For starting pitching…go get him Kenny…would be sweet d in cf and a lead off man for years
by Shawn Cook on Feb 5, 2012 12:54 PM CST via iPhone app reply actions
I'd like having him, but not hitting leadoff.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
Yeah I don't see how he's a leadoff guy.
Poor walk rates and OBP. Not sure the Sox really have the pitching to deal at this point either.
if the asking price is
doug lannan then i think we can afford him…also bourjos is still young and has room to grow
His name is John Lannan.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
no, he meant doug.
doug is pretty valuable. 20+ years experience. very versatile – carpentry, countertops, masonry, plumbing. i’m not sure we have anyone like him in our system – maybe tyler kuhn? seems like a non-starter for the white sox.
www.mrhandyman.com/local-handyman-service/ma/central-norfolk-county/meet-our-staff.aspx
by larry on Feb 5, 2012 4:16 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
maybe
To many pre super bowl drinks yes I meant John
by Shawn Cook on Feb 5, 2012 9:35 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
There's no way the Angels make a Bourjos-Lannan trade straight up.
They already have Weaver-Haren-Wilson-Santana. They only need a 5th starter and you don’t give up a young centerfielder like Bourjos for a fifth starter.
Trout will be replacing Bourjos in center soon.
That takes leverage away from the Angels.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"

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