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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

No more football means it's fantasy baseball season

e-gus thinks this guy will give you better fantasy value than Angels prospect Mike Trout this season.(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

So I was supposed to write an article this morning, but couldn't log in. Oops.

Yesterday I was watching Baseball IQ on MLB network and the MLB.com fantasy expert couldn't name 1 guy out of the top 20 active stolen base leaders. Really? Your job is fantasy baseball expert for MLB, and after the guy who worked for the Hall of Fame said Juan Pierre you had nothing? Really? That's terrible.

Especially considering they exclusively talk about the 5x5 format, which grossly inflates the real life value of stolen bases. Carl Crawford? Ichiro Suzuki? I made a mental note to ignore everything that guy says ever from here on out.

I have a little bit of down time so I thought I'd run through a quick list of strategies and observations on this upcoming season of fantasy baseball.

Star-divide

First of all, let me start by saying the standard 5x5 league is the worst. There is no way a SB should be as valuable as a home run. I prefer points leagues that count the steal as 1 but also subtract 1 for a CS. Then the solo home run typically gets you 6 points(one for every base, 1 for the run, 1 for the RBI). Much more realistic for my money. I also prefer head to head leagues, because they aren't over at the all-star break like a lot of roto leagues tend to be, particularly the free casual ones on yahoo, cbs or espn. Oh and I hate the mlb.com format. You draft entire pitching staffs as a whole. That's crap.

So my first bit of fantasy advice- know your positional scarcity. I prefer bigger leagues, and the more teams you have, the more important this becomes.

This season third base looks like the weakest position on the surface, but when you consider Hanley Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera are gaining eligibility there as this season gets underway, third base is fairly deep. Especially in those default 10 team leagues. If you miss Jose Bautista or Evan Longoria early, dont be afraid to wait and fill your other needs first. Getting Ryan Zimmerman or Pablo Sandoval 10 rounds later is good value.

Shortstop is always the premium postion. It's the hardest to play defensively and the least likely to give you really good offensive production. If I'm picking first this year, I'm taking Troy Tulowitzki. He is an asset in every category(or at least not a liability, he wont get you a lot of steals) at the weakest position. If I cant get him I'd want a burner like Jose Reyes or Elvis Andrus. If I can't get them either, I'm taking Alexei Ramirez, because I overvalue all White Sox players.

That can be my next point- Know your own weaknesses and tendencies. If you're like me and you want to start 5 Sox players, well that's probably not very smart, BUT at least know you can probably get Jake Peavy in the 15th round or later anywhere but the south side sox leagues.

When doing your homework to build your draft board, look at projections on fangraphs, and look at the average draft postion on whatever platform you are using. All of the fantasy sites have their own default lists that will have a definite impact on who gets drafted where, you can use that to know if you have to move early to get a guy you really want or who you can nab later on because yahoo or whatever it is has him ranked in the 500s. Never let the default list make your picks. Thats how you get Victor Martinez(torn ACL) and Javier Vazquez(likely retired) on your team.

Unless you are in a keeper league, I don't recommend using more than 1 or 2 ROY candidates. Guys like Jesus Montero and Mike Trout are probably going to go much too early this season considering they haven't hit in the show yet. Fangraphs thinks Trout will give you a .279 average with 10 HR and 20 steals. Well do you want that in the 10th round, or do you want the same basic line from Alejandro De Aza with your last pick of the day? You don't get bonus points for nabbing the next big thing.

Ah crap, the kid is up from her nap.

That's my time. You've been a lovely audience.

Be sure to tip your bartenders.

Poll
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Comment 66 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I'm mildly interested

Don’t have constant net access at the moment, so kind of depends on the league (i.e. daily updates necessary vs. weekly). I’ve listened to a fair number of fantasy baseball podcasts though I’ve only been in one league to date, which I was fairly successful in despite drafting Brandon Webb.

fcdisbad.blogspot.com

by Carbiner on Feb 8, 2012 3:48 PM CST reply actions  

Im a 5X5 guy

but I get your point. I just don’t like it crazy and I hate h2h.

As I said I got Shandler stuff now so you’ll hear from me.

"Rooting for the Twins is just a roundabout way of rooting for a first-round playoff bye for the Yankees." by big_fun

by Tdogg on Feb 8, 2012 4:21 PM CST reply actions  

Danks

3.81 ERA
1.23 Whip
2.9 cmd

A strained oblique cost him some mid-season starts. On either side of that injury, posted worst results since 2007
despite career-best skills. Elevated H% obscures 2H surge, featuring career-best Dom and Ctl. Prime rebound
candidate, with 2nd-half BPV pointing to breakout potential. If those 2nd-half skills gain hold … UP: 2008 and more

Actually a familiar thing with Sox starters, second half peripheral stats were quite good even though hits were up. Again one of things I’m encouraged for the squad.

"Rooting for the Twins is just a roundabout way of rooting for a first-round playoff bye for the Yankees." by big_fun

by Tdogg on Feb 8, 2012 4:31 PM CST reply actions  

Which fantasy bball site do you recommend?

I used to really love the CBS annual league I was in back in 2002-2005. I was paying out of pocket for it though, like $130.

I did so shit last year in the SSS 2nd league. I seem to be way better at fantasy football and basketball, even though I think I know them less well than baseball. I’m guessing it’s cause I make irrational judgments in baseball based on character.

by Pander on Feb 8, 2012 4:41 PM CST reply actions  

Baseball Reference...

I typically pick up Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster in the preseason, then use that, watching games, and baseball-reference for everything during the season. I also listen to ESPN’s Fantasy Focus Podcast, but that’s mostly for the nonsense.

by johnsorc on Feb 10, 2012 6:40 AM CST up reply actions  

Im a Bill James guy

for the hitters especially(they leave out too many young pitchers), but I try to look at them all then make my own list based on the info and my gut.

by e-gus on Feb 10, 2012 11:05 AM CST up reply actions  

Question for those that do play-

How much time do you put into it? I’m thinking about giving it a whirl, but I don’t want to be that guy who just doesn’t put in the effort that others do.

by South Side Expat on Feb 8, 2012 4:50 PM CST reply actions  

But now it's tradition!

"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"

by U-God on Feb 8, 2012 4:53 PM CST up reply actions  

Honestly I've found with fantasy baseball most times

Less is more. You gotta go all Chris Rongey on it. Give your players a chance to work out of a funk. Not all season like OG, but I find daily positional changes (ESPECIALLY BASED ON YESTERDAY’S PERFORMANCE) seem always to short change your team. Granted if there is legitimate reason for the switch (like a favorable pitching match up, an injury) by all means make the switch. What I am saying is you should check in daily to see if anything changed, but make moves only if it makes sense for today and going forward, not because of what happened yesterday…

Well, boys, it's a round ball and a round bat and you got to hit the ball square. ~Joe Schultz, 1969

by zevsenesca on Feb 8, 2012 5:26 PM CST up reply actions  

I like to check every morning and make adjustments to my lineup

It’s sort of my morning ritual during the summer at the office. Get there a little early and ease myself into work by checking up on my fantasy baseball teams. Checking every day has it’s advantages. If you’re in H2H, you can see that you have a big lead in a certain category and change your lineup to compensate for an area you need some help. Best to think of it for HRs v. SBs. If you had a couple guys go off on HRs early in the week, you can change an OF or UTIL guy from a power bat to a speedster to try to win both categories.

by ceverettsdinosaurs on Feb 8, 2012 5:36 PM CST up reply actions  

About fucking time.

I’m in.

We're all here because we're not all there.

by winningugly on Feb 8, 2012 4:53 PM CST via mobile reply actions  

I like (and mostly use) your draft strategy.

Fangraphs is pretty great for drafting pitchers. I feel like I have a leg up on some more casual friends by using K/BB ratios, IP, etc.

The lords of dawn are men such as Mr. Lucy.

by Uribe Down on Feb 8, 2012 5:27 PM CST reply actions  

I'm definitely in.

I’ll keep on the lookout for the followup posts.

by ceverettsdinosaurs on Feb 8, 2012 5:38 PM CST reply actions  

I am also in!

I departed my last league on less than good terms with the people in it so I need a fresh start.

by Skew on Feb 8, 2012 5:41 PM CST reply actions  

Really?

Who did you trade him for? I don’t get it….

Well, boys, it's a round ball and a round bat and you got to hit the ball square. ~Joe Schultz, 1969

by zevsenesca on Feb 8, 2012 6:52 PM CST up reply actions  

i might veto you for getting too much

both those guys went round one in some leagues

"Sportsmanship is just loser talk for losing."

by boyonthedock on Feb 8, 2012 7:19 PM CST up reply actions  

right?

I thought it was a good trade. but the other guy won the ship over the commissioner.

NAOPOS

by blackoutsox on Feb 8, 2012 7:52 PM CST up reply actions  

I was playing in a league with an in-law

didn’t know anybody but him in the league and I was in first at the all-star break when the 2 teams that hadn’t adjusted a line-up all year combined to trade Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez, Curtis Granderson, John Danks, CJ Wilson, and a few other all-stars for Michael Cuddyer, Alex Rios, and Geovany Soto.

It led to me letting them know what I thought of their league.

by Skew on Feb 8, 2012 6:13 PM CST reply actions  

I'm in

And I’m not afriad of any of you

by THE_CELEBRATOR on Feb 8, 2012 6:28 PM CST reply actions  

I'd love to play.

And I’m terrified of Larry.

Furious George! What happened to your beautiful face?!?

by AirTrafficAJ on Feb 11, 2012 2:00 AM CST via iPhone app up reply actions  

"larry".

We're all here because we're not all there.

by winningugly on Feb 11, 2012 10:48 AM CST up reply actions  

I believe I am in line for promotion to the big leagues

I am not quite the terror in fantasy baseball as i am in football, but i think i can perform admirably in the super deluxe exclusive invite only version. The Boys on the Docks are not to be trifled with.

"Sportsmanship is just loser talk for losing."

by boyonthedock on Feb 8, 2012 7:11 PM CST reply actions   1 recs

i believe i am also getting the call up to the bigs this year.

us southerners know our baseball

Life will always throw you curves, just keep fouling them off... the right pitch will come, but when it does, be prepared to run the bases. ~Rick Maksian

by oneloyaldawg on Feb 14, 2012 8:50 PM CST up reply actions  

I still hate Carl Crawford for ruining my team last year.

"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"

by U-God on Feb 8, 2012 7:14 PM CST reply actions  

I have a question

a new member has done a very good fanpost about the pecota projections, but I only knew about it fron looking at my mobile,
the posting is a bit effed up – you go into fanposts you can’t even see it
something wrong I reckon

by hoodlight on Feb 8, 2012 7:24 PM CST reply actions  

Given the growing interest

we may have to have either a thirty team league or third SSS league.

by normanje13 on Feb 8, 2012 8:49 PM CST up reply actions  

A thirty team league would be dramatic

It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity

by Rhubarb on Feb 8, 2012 8:59 PM CST up reply actions  

Will we still relegate if we're doing two 20 team leagues?

"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"

by U-God on Feb 8, 2012 9:55 PM CST up reply actions  

good point.

probably just promote heavily and fill 2 with new blood?

by e-gus on Feb 8, 2012 10:29 PM CST up reply actions  

Seems about right.

"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"

by U-God on Feb 8, 2012 10:38 PM CST up reply actions  

Escaped the chopping block eh?

It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity

by Rhubarb on Feb 9, 2012 6:28 AM CST up reply actions  

The governor wants me to be sheriff.

"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"

by U-God on Feb 9, 2012 9:53 AM CST up reply actions  

The teams relegated to 2nd division are

Autopicking to First
Hang Whiffum
Pedrophile’s Moustache
Kenwo (yes, Kenwo came in last place)

It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity

by Rhubarb on Feb 8, 2012 9:05 PM CST reply actions  

And those must be trust fund babies

It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity

by Rhubarb on Feb 8, 2012 9:10 PM CST up reply actions  

viva las vegas baby

Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.

by KenWo4LiFe on Feb 9, 2012 12:55 PM CST up reply actions  

I think Ozzie Montana is autopick and Ugod is pedrophile

Who is hangwhiffem?

It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity

by Rhubarb on Feb 8, 2012 9:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Hawk.

We're all here because we're not all there.

by winningugly on Feb 8, 2012 9:17 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

I'm sure I'm still in the second division

i promise to pay more attention this time!

NAOPOS

by blackoutsox on Feb 8, 2012 9:26 PM CST up reply actions  

i'm bad at fantasy baseball.

football i’m much more competitive (not so much in the SSS league this year due to my first pick getting hurt in week 1) i draft all my favorites in baseball. it used to work. now my favorites are all 40.

Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.

by KenWo4LiFe on Feb 9, 2012 12:54 PM CST up reply actions  

I drafted Peyton Manning with my first pick, and won the Shiva Bowl. DREAMS DO COME TRUE!

I also suck at fantasy baseball.

"I considered throwing a volley, but since I'm considerably closer to Ford City than Dodge City, I figure it might have been misinterpreted."

by RWShow on Feb 10, 2012 12:06 AM CST up reply actions  

I don't know how it happened...

…but my 1st two picks last year on Yahoo were Fielder and Pujols. By June I was in first and won the league. I think closer is key and you can get by with three okay starters. I do a lotta horse trading and FA pick-ups. You gotta ride out slumps and play streaks. Really look forward to it every morning — like the box score.

by RoyEgan on Feb 8, 2012 11:29 PM CST reply actions  

I'm in!

If you want an old dumb guy.

by soxfan50 on Feb 9, 2012 8:46 AM CST reply actions  

Half this league has old, dumb guys in it, you'll fit in great!

It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity

by Rhubarb on Feb 9, 2012 11:52 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

I can't even remember if I played last year

"I'm holding out hope Reinsdorf can somehow use his amnesty clause on Rios"
-Duck99

by Hazymania on Feb 9, 2012 11:50 PM CST reply actions  

I'm in too

I played for about 3 years. 2 years ago I played H2H & it was tough but I got the hang of it eventually. Didn’t play last year & I was lost. I follow all teams much better when I play.

I’m assuming date of draft will be main screen, right. RIGHT?

It's 106 miles to Chicago, we have a full tank of gas, 1/2 pack of cigarettes...it's dark, and we're wearing sunglasses.

by lastof12 on Feb 10, 2012 3:02 PM CST reply actions  

Is this even a sign-up thread?

In any case, I’m in. Defending the crown and all that.

by jackie hayes on Feb 10, 2012 6:08 PM CST reply actions  

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