Oh boy... This looks bad... This year's PECOTA is out, and while I'm not a big fan of their projections (Last year they had Dunn going 0.248/0.371/0.51 with 38HR and 96RBI. I'd have given my left nut for him to actually do that.) people seem to live and die by them.
Their projections are considered by the industry to be the best in the business. So why not take a look see at what Baseball Prospectus's computers think our boys on the Soxside will do.
|Alejandro De Aza||LF||638||75||33||6||10||69||49||120||28||13|
|Alejandro De Aza||LF||0.273||0.329||0.403||0.321||0.9|
Those are some numbers! But I think the most fun part of PECOTA is to look at the players they compare our boys to.
Adam Dunn: Carlos Pena,Mark McGwire,Ken Phelps
Addison Reed: Sparky Lyle,Andrew Sisco,Dave Beard
Brent Lillibridge: Will Venable,Joe Lefebvre,Willie Crawford
Chris Sale: Sparky Lyle,Andrew Sisco,Dave Beard
Dallas McPherson: Harmon Killebrew,Mike Schmidt,Mike Hessman
Jake Peavy: Ted Higuera,John Smoltz,John Lackey
Nestor Molina: John Urrea,Bob Welch,David Palmer
Philip Humber: Steve Rogers,John Burkett,Kevin Millwood
Ramon Castro: Roy Campanella,Carl Sawatski,Jason Varitek
Will Ohman: Willie Hernandez,Alberto Castillo,Mike Stanton
Zach Stewart: Jae Kuk Ryu,Don Gullett,Brian Kingman
Somethings that stand out to me.
1. PECOTA has never really liked Paulie, and that's pretty obvious. Granted he's considered our best hitter on this, his numbers drop 0.034/0.034/0.049 I've never understood why PECOTA doesn't like someone who's been fairly consistent throughout his career, but we all know that at 36 the drop off is going to come soon. I just hope he can hit his career .282/.358/.500 so we're competitive this year.
2. Dunn has a small regression to the mean. If he hits his PECOTA numbers he'll win comeback player of the year.
3. Gordan will either be Danny Richar or Ian Kinsler. For the life of me, I hope he's more Kinsler, but an average of the 2 would be nice. I honestly believe he may be more Richar the more and more I see of him.
4. Gavin is Roy Oswalt, John Lackey and Jack McDowell? At Gavin's age all 3 of those pitchers were coming off Top 5 finishes in the Cy Young award. Gavin on the other hand is coming off his worst year since becoming a full time starter. His numbers look eerily similar to Danks. I sure hope they look alike at the end of the season and Danks is playing up to his contract's expectation.
5. I really like Addison Reed's numbers and would love to see Thornton hit those numbers. The bullpen is rough overall, but there's 3 reliable guys based on the numbers (exactly what I think it's going to be at the beginning of the season)
6. Chris Sale for 2013 Cy Young.
7. I hate Rios, but if he puts up a positive WARP then my hate will be abated.
8. If Morel puts up Gold Glove defense, then I can survive with those numbers. If he puts up average defense, then he should be back in AAA.
9. Detroit has 2 guys who are going to put up 35 HR and 100 RBI. God help us.