2012 White Sox PECOTA

by Kyle321N on Feb 8, 2012 4:21 PM CST

Oh boy... This looks bad... This year's PECOTA is out, and while I'm not a big fan of their projections (Last year they had Dunn going 0.248/0.371/0.51 with 38HR and 96RBI. I'd have given my left nut for him to actually do that.) people seem to live and die by them.

Their projections are considered by the industry to be the best in the business. So why not take a look see at what Baseball Prospectus's computers think our boys on the Soxside will do.

NAME	POS	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
Alexei Ramirez	SS	698	81	27	2	18	79	43	89	12	7
Paul Konerko	1B	646	85	26	1	28	85	72	107	1	1
Alejandro De Aza	LF	638	75	33	6	10	69	49	120	28	13
Adam Dunn	1B	601	79	22	1	30	77	94	174	1	1
Brent Morel	3B	584	65	27	2	13	64	29	94	11	5
Alex Rios	CF	559	65	27	3	15	66	36	84	21	8
Gordon Beckham	2B	542	61	28	1	12	57	41	97	6	4
A.J. Pierzynski	C	508	55	24	1	8	52	20	57	2	1
Dayan Viciedo	RF	499	58	20	1	17	60	25	100	2	1
Brent Lillibridge	LF	484	51	17	3	12	48	39	126	23	9
Dallas McPherson	3B	250	34	10	1	13	37	22	82	1	1
Ramon Castro	C	250	34	9	0	12	35	22	60	1	0

NAME	POS	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP	WARP
Alexei Ramirez	SS	0.274	0.318	0.407	0.289	3.3
Paul Konerko	1B	0.266	0.354	0.468	0.280	1.8
Alejandro De Aza	LF	0.273	0.329	0.403	0.321	0.9
Adam Dunn	1B	0.232	0.357	0.460	0.286	2.5
Brent Morel	3B	0.264	0.301	0.391	0.294	1.0
Alex Rios	CF	0.266	0.317	0.416	0.290	1.8
Gordon Beckham	2B	0.253	0.317	0.389	0.288	1.6
A.J. Pierzynski	C	0.266	0.299	0.373	0.283	0.6
Dayan Viciedo	RF	0.265	0.306	0.419	0.301	0.5
Brent Lillibridge	LF	0.229	0.298	0.364	0.288	-0.1
Dallas McPherson	3B	0.232	0.302	0.452	0.297	1.6
Ramon Castro	C	0.242	0.310	0.440	0.273	2.3

Name	G	GS	IP	W	L	SV	ERA	WHIP	WARP
John Danks	31	31	195.3	11.3	14.2	0	3.89	1.3	3.1
Gavin Floyd	30	30	189.0	11	13.6	0	3.87	1.27	3.1
Philip Humber	28	28	168.0	9.2	13.8	0	4.53	1.39	1.5
Jake Peavy	24	24	144.0	8.7	10	0	3.46	1.24	3.2
Chris Sale	24	24	120.0	7.8	8.1	0	2.79	1.15	4.0
Zach Stewart	15	15	90.0	4.6	7.9	0	5.00	1.52	0.3
Matt Thornton	68	0	71.7	3.6	2.1	22	2.95	1.19	1.4
Jesse Crain	68	0	71.7	3.4	1.8	5	3.85	1.34	0.6
Addison Reed	68	0	71.7	3.5	2.1	13	3.18	1.2	1.2
Nestor Molina	10	10	60.0	3.2	5.1	0	4.71	1.44	0.4
Doug Davis	10	0	54.3	2.3	4.6	0	5.11	1.61	-0.2
Will Ohman	50	0	52.7	2.4	1.3	0	4.09	1.37	0.2

NAME	H	HR	BB	SO	BB9	SO9	GB %	BABIP
John Danks	192	22	61	152	2.8	7.0	43.3%	0.293
Gavin Floyd	185	22	55	144	2.6	6.9	44.2%	0.292
Philip Humber	177	23	56	109	3.0	5.8	41.7%	0.291
Jake Peavy	136	15	44	131	2.7	8.2	43.4%	0.299
Chris Sale	93	11	45	142	3.4	10.6	48.2%	0.287
Zach Stewart	103	11	34	60	3.4	6.0	48.0%	0.317
Matt Thornton	62	6	24	79	3.0	9.9	47.5%	0.304
Jesse Crain	65	8	31	65	3.9	8.1	41.7%	0.288
Addison Reed	61	7	26	83	3.2	10.4	40.8%	0.300
Nestor Molina	65	8	21	43	3.2	6.4	51.0%	0.306
Doug Davis	60	6	28	39	4.6	6.5	47.5%	0.316
Will Ohman	51	6	21	47	3.6	8.0	41.2%	0.299

Those are some numbers! But I think the most fun part of PECOTA is to look at the players they compare our boys to.

Player: Comparison

A.J. Pierzynski: Mike Lieberthal,Darrin Fletcher,Bengie Molina

Adam Dunn: Carlos Pena,Mark McGwire,Ken Phelps

Addison Reed: Sparky Lyle,Andrew Sisco,Dave Beard

Alejandro De Aza: David Murphy,Tito Francona,Ben Francisco

Alex Rios: Jerry Mumphrey,Vernon Wells,Eric Byrnes

Alexei Ramirez: Alan Trammell,Edgar Renteria,Jason Bartlett

Brent Lillibridge: Will Venable,Joe Lefebvre,Willie Crawford

Brent Morel: Andy Marte,Aramis Ramirez,Adrian Beltre

Chris Sale: Sparky Lyle,Andrew Sisco,Dave Beard

Dallas McPherson: Harmon Killebrew,Mike Schmidt,Mike Hessman

Dayan Viciedo: Jeff Francoeur,Ruben Sierra,Ellis Valentine

Doug Davis: Orlando Hernandez,Vic Raschi,Jose Contreras

Gavin Floyd: Roy Oswalt,John Lackey,Jack McDowell

Gordon Beckham: Danny Richar,Ian Kinsler,Jim Lefebvre

Jake Peavy: Ted Higuera,John Smoltz,John Lackey

Jesse Crain: Jeff Montgomery,Mike MacDougal,Juan Rincon

John Danks: Joe Saunders,Dallas Braden,Jon Matlack

Matt Thornton: Jim Brewer,Billy Wagner,Brian Fuentes

Nestor Molina: John Urrea,Bob Welch,David Palmer

Paul Konerko: Edgar Martinez,Rafael Palmeiro,Stan Musial

Philip Humber: Steve Rogers,John Burkett,Kevin Millwood

Ramon Castro: Roy Campanella,Carl Sawatski,Jason Varitek

Will Ohman: Willie Hernandez,Alberto Castillo,Mike Stanton

Zach Stewart: Jae Kuk Ryu,Don Gullett,Brian Kingman

Somethings that stand out to me.

1. PECOTA has never really liked Paulie, and that's pretty obvious. Granted he's considered our best hitter on this, his numbers drop 0.034/0.034/0.049 I've never understood why PECOTA doesn't like someone who's been fairly consistent throughout his career, but we all know that at 36 the drop off is going to come soon. I just hope he can hit his career .282/.358/.500 so we're competitive this year.

2. Dunn has a small regression to the mean. If he hits his PECOTA numbers he'll win comeback player of the year.

3. Gordan will either be Danny Richar or Ian Kinsler. For the life of me, I hope he's more Kinsler, but an average of the 2 would be nice. I honestly believe he may be more Richar the more and more I see of him.

4. Gavin is Roy Oswalt, John Lackey and Jack McDowell? At Gavin's age all 3 of those pitchers were coming off Top 5 finishes in the Cy Young award. Gavin on the other hand is coming off his worst year since becoming a full time starter. His numbers look eerily similar to Danks. I sure hope they look alike at the end of the season and Danks is playing up to his contract's expectation.

5. I really like Addison Reed's numbers and would love to see Thornton hit those numbers. The bullpen is rough overall, but there's 3 reliable guys based on the numbers (exactly what I think it's going to be at the beginning of the season)

6. Chris Sale for 2013 Cy Young.

7. I hate Rios, but if he puts up a positive WARP then my hate will be abated.

8. If Morel puts up Gold Glove defense, then I can survive with those numbers. If he puts up average defense, then he should be back in AAA.

9. Detroit has 2 guys who are going to put up 35 HR and 100 RBI. God help us.

Your take?

SouthSideSox is a community driven site. As such, users are able to express their thoughts and opinions in a FanPost, such as this one, which represents the views of this particular fan, but not necessarily the entire community or SouthSideSox editors.

Tweet Comment 29 comments | 6 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

this is a good fan post

for some reason it’s hard for anyone to see – the fanpost section is a bit wrong atm.

by hoodlight on Feb 8, 2012 7:22 PM CST reply actions

the innings from sale could use a boost, but i would take those overall projections for the starting rotation

by onlysoxfaninboston on Feb 9, 2012 7:19 AM CST reply actions

Agreed on the Sale projection

I think it’s odd that they have him putting up those excellent numbers and have him at 4 WARP but with a losing record and only 120 innings pitched. Seems like a lot of value over 120 innings. Are they possibly projecting that he’ll be moved back to the bullpen and accumulate some of his value there?

by ceverettsdinosaurs on Feb 9, 2012 7:39 AM CST up reply actions

i don't know, but even still, most of that 4 WARP has to come from starting

by onlysoxfaninboston on Feb 9, 2012 9:57 AM CST up reply actions

A 2.79 ERA really helps

Brandon McCarthy went 170 IPs and had a 4.7 fWAR last year and his numbers weren’t THAT great. Maybe Sale just dominates for 150 innings and we are all excited for 2013.

3 things in life I care about
Sox, Colts, and Hawks.
Lifetime banners: '05, '07, '10

by Kyle321N on Feb 9, 2012 10:28 AM CST up reply actions

I'll take Nestor Molina as a Bob Welch

It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity

by Rhubarb on Feb 9, 2012 9:09 AM CST reply actions

uh huh, totally

but did you see that he has a 1.8 fWAR in 1990?

by onlysoxfaninboston on Feb 9, 2012 10:01 AM CST up reply actions

Yeah thats bizarre

His Cy Young year and he won 27 games. Looks like he got really lucky that year.

It came from afar and traveled sedately on, a shrug of eternity

by Rhubarb on Feb 9, 2012 10:08 AM CST up reply actions

his babip is 0.25, but his career average was 0.27..i don't know

by onlysoxfaninboston on Feb 9, 2012 10:23 AM CST up reply actions

I won't buy that comparison until Nestor Molina sings "Ebony Eyes"

What?! I ain't no Professor Pickles!

by 67WMAQ on Feb 9, 2012 11:46 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs

taking and buying are two different things

by onlysoxfaninboston on Feb 9, 2012 12:36 PM CST up reply actions

Obscure.

Nice.

We're all here because we're not all there.

by winningugly on Feb 9, 2012 4:04 PM CST up reply actions

It could be worse

We could be Astros fans.

3 things in life I care about
Sox, Colts, and Hawks.
Lifetime banners: '05, '07, '10

by Kyle321N on Feb 9, 2012 10:29 AM CST reply actions

.300 hitters need not apply

"I wouldn’t say I’m hitting five days a week…some weeks we won’t go at all." – Adam Dunn on his preparation routine for the 2012 season (1/24/12)

by tailgater on Feb 9, 2012 11:08 AM CST reply actions

.275 hitters need not apply

sorry

by jimmyjr on Feb 10, 2012 9:51 AM CST up reply actions

I wouldn't call PECOTA the best in the business anymore

Thanks for the post though.

"Rooting for the Twins is just a roundabout way of rooting for a first-round playoff bye for the Yankees." by big_fun

by Tdogg on Feb 9, 2012 1:33 PM CST reply actions

Who is the best in the business?

by Rick B on Feb 9, 2012 2:04 PM CST up reply actions

I'd be hesitant to give it to anyone now

There was a time I felt PECOTA was above but if anything they took a hit after Silver left and a minor disaster with the system tweaks.

"Rooting for the Twins is just a roundabout way of rooting for a first-round playoff bye for the Yankees." by big_fun

by Tdogg on Feb 9, 2012 2:21 PM CST up reply actions

Castro third best WARP for position players? Flowers or Castro?

by Rick B on Feb 9, 2012 2:09 PM CST reply actions

castro is gone.

so i’d be interested to see how they rated flowers.

by craigws on Feb 9, 2012 3:22 PM CST up reply actions

This is all so sunny!

I would take pretty much all of the offensive numbers.

The lords of dawn are men such as Mr. Lucy.

by Uribe Down on Feb 9, 2012 2:41 PM CST reply actions

how the fuck to you project dunn to have a triple.

eh, projections

DUNK HIS ASS

by obnoxious american on Feb 9, 2012 6:23 PM CST reply actions

Sox play the Cubs 6 times

and Soriano is still on the Cubs. The algorithm is a smart-ass.

by son_of_sophist on Feb 10, 2012 11:54 AM CST up reply actions

ha

DUNK HIS ASS

by obnoxious american on Feb 11, 2012 12:15 PM CST up reply actions

We can only hope someone in the division signs Fukudome

The Pierzynski triple in the Crosstown series, the 5-triple night against Cleveland in August…both involved Kosuke taking outfield routes with right angles in them.

by WSO on Feb 12, 2012 6:32 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs

this is all your fault.

by larry on Feb 14, 2012 7:19 PM CST up reply actions 5 recs

Big increases

If Beckham adds 75 points to his OPS, Rios adds 120, Morel about 60, and Dunn hits 30 HR and adds about 750 pts to his OPS . . . . all you need is to get Viciedo to replace Quentin and this is an offense that can GUARANTEE 83-84.2 wins. The algorithm hates Greg Walker.

by son_of_sophist on Feb 10, 2012 11:56 AM CST reply actions