FanPost

2012 White Sox PECOTA

Oh boy... This looks bad... This year's PECOTA is out, and while I'm not a big fan of their projections (Last year they had Dunn going 0.248/0.371/0.51 with 38HR and 96RBI. I'd have given my left nut for him to actually do that.) people seem to live and die by them.

Their projections are considered by the industry to be the best in the business. So why not take a look see at what Baseball Prospectus's computers think our boys on the Soxside will do.

NAME POS PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Alexei Ramirez SS 698 81 27 2 18 79 43 89 12 7
Paul Konerko 1B 646 85 26 1 28 85 72 107 1 1
Alejandro De Aza LF 638 75 33 6 10 69 49 120 28 13
Adam Dunn 1B 601 79 22 1 30 77 94 174 1 1
Brent Morel 3B 584 65 27 2 13 64 29 94 11 5
Alex Rios CF 559 65 27 3 15 66 36 84 21 8
Gordon Beckham 2B 542 61 28 1 12 57 41 97 6 4
A.J. Pierzynski C 508 55 24 1 8 52 20 57 2 1
Dayan Viciedo RF 499 58 20 1 17 60 25 100 2 1
Brent Lillibridge LF 484 51 17 3 12 48 39 126 23 9
Dallas McPherson 3B 250 34 10 1 13 37 22 82 1 1
Ramon Castro C 250 34 9 0 12 35 22 60 1 0

NAME POS AVG OBP SLG BABIP WARP
Alexei Ramirez SS 0.274 0.318 0.407 0.289 3.3
Paul Konerko 1B 0.266 0.354 0.468 0.280 1.8
Alejandro De Aza LF 0.273 0.329 0.403 0.321 0.9
Adam Dunn 1B 0.232 0.357 0.460 0.286 2.5
Brent Morel 3B 0.264 0.301 0.391 0.294 1.0
Alex Rios CF 0.266 0.317 0.416 0.290 1.8
Gordon Beckham 2B 0.253 0.317 0.389 0.288 1.6
A.J. Pierzynski C 0.266 0.299 0.373 0.283 0.6
Dayan Viciedo RF 0.265 0.306 0.419 0.301 0.5
Brent Lillibridge LF 0.229 0.298 0.364 0.288 -0.1
Dallas McPherson 3B 0.232 0.302 0.452 0.297 1.6
Ramon Castro C 0.242 0.310 0.440 0.273 2.3

Name G GS IP W L SV ERA WHIP WARP
John Danks 31 31 195.3 11.3 14.2 0 3.89 1.3 3.1
Gavin Floyd 30 30 189.0 11 13.6 0 3.87 1.27 3.1
Philip Humber 28 28 168.0 9.2 13.8 0 4.53 1.39 1.5
Jake Peavy 24 24 144.0 8.7 10 0 3.46 1.24 3.2
Chris Sale 24 24 120.0 7.8 8.1 0 2.79 1.15 4.0
Zach Stewart 15 15 90.0 4.6 7.9 0 5.00 1.52 0.3
Matt Thornton 68 0 71.7 3.6 2.1 22 2.95 1.19 1.4
Jesse Crain 68 0 71.7 3.4 1.8 5 3.85 1.34 0.6
Addison Reed 68 0 71.7 3.5 2.1 13 3.18 1.2 1.2
Nestor Molina 10 10 60.0 3.2 5.1 0 4.71 1.44 0.4
Doug Davis 10 0 54.3 2.3 4.6 0 5.11 1.61 -0.2
Will Ohman 50 0 52.7 2.4 1.3 0 4.09 1.37 0.2

NAME H HR BB SO BB9 SO9 GB % BABIP
John Danks 192 22 61 152 2.8 7.0 43.3% 0.293
Gavin Floyd 185 22 55 144 2.6 6.9 44.2% 0.292
Philip Humber 177 23 56 109 3.0 5.8 41.7% 0.291
Jake Peavy 136 15 44 131 2.7 8.2 43.4% 0.299
Chris Sale 93 11 45 142 3.4 10.6 48.2% 0.287
Zach Stewart 103 11 34 60 3.4 6.0 48.0% 0.317
Matt Thornton 62 6 24 79 3.0 9.9 47.5% 0.304
Jesse Crain 65 8 31 65 3.9 8.1 41.7% 0.288
Addison Reed 61 7 26 83 3.2 10.4 40.8% 0.300
Nestor Molina 65 8 21 43 3.2 6.4 51.0% 0.306
Doug Davis 60 6 28 39 4.6 6.5 47.5% 0.316
Will Ohman 51 6 21 47 3.6 8.0 41.2% 0.299

Those are some numbers! But I think the most fun part of PECOTA is to look at the players they compare our boys to.

Player: Comparison

A.J. Pierzynski: Mike Lieberthal,Darrin Fletcher,Bengie Molina

Adam Dunn: Carlos Pena,Mark McGwire,Ken Phelps

Addison Reed: Sparky Lyle,Andrew Sisco,Dave Beard

Alejandro De Aza: David Murphy,Tito Francona,Ben Francisco

Alex Rios: Jerry Mumphrey,Vernon Wells,Eric Byrnes

Alexei Ramirez: Alan Trammell,Edgar Renteria,Jason Bartlett

Brent Lillibridge: Will Venable,Joe Lefebvre,Willie Crawford

Brent Morel: Andy Marte,Aramis Ramirez,Adrian Beltre

Chris Sale: Sparky Lyle,Andrew Sisco,Dave Beard

Dallas McPherson: Harmon Killebrew,Mike Schmidt,Mike Hessman

Dayan Viciedo: Jeff Francoeur,Ruben Sierra,Ellis Valentine

Doug Davis: Orlando Hernandez,Vic Raschi,Jose Contreras

Gavin Floyd: Roy Oswalt,John Lackey,Jack McDowell

Gordon Beckham: Danny Richar,Ian Kinsler,Jim Lefebvre

Jake Peavy: Ted Higuera,John Smoltz,John Lackey

Jesse Crain: Jeff Montgomery,Mike MacDougal,Juan Rincon

John Danks: Joe Saunders,Dallas Braden,Jon Matlack

Matt Thornton: Jim Brewer,Billy Wagner,Brian Fuentes

Nestor Molina: John Urrea,Bob Welch,David Palmer

Paul Konerko: Edgar Martinez,Rafael Palmeiro,Stan Musial

Philip Humber: Steve Rogers,John Burkett,Kevin Millwood

Ramon Castro: Roy Campanella,Carl Sawatski,Jason Varitek

Will Ohman: Willie Hernandez,Alberto Castillo,Mike Stanton

Zach Stewart: Jae Kuk Ryu,Don Gullett,Brian Kingman

Somethings that stand out to me.

1. PECOTA has never really liked Paulie, and that's pretty obvious. Granted he's considered our best hitter on this, his numbers drop 0.034/0.034/0.049 I've never understood why PECOTA doesn't like someone who's been fairly consistent throughout his career, but we all know that at 36 the drop off is going to come soon. I just hope he can hit his career .282/.358/.500 so we're competitive this year.

2. Dunn has a small regression to the mean. If he hits his PECOTA numbers he'll win comeback player of the year.

3. Gordan will either be Danny Richar or Ian Kinsler. For the life of me, I hope he's more Kinsler, but an average of the 2 would be nice. I honestly believe he may be more Richar the more and more I see of him.

4. Gavin is Roy Oswalt, John Lackey and Jack McDowell? At Gavin's age all 3 of those pitchers were coming off Top 5 finishes in the Cy Young award. Gavin on the other hand is coming off his worst year since becoming a full time starter. His numbers look eerily similar to Danks. I sure hope they look alike at the end of the season and Danks is playing up to his contract's expectation.

5. I really like Addison Reed's numbers and would love to see Thornton hit those numbers. The bullpen is rough overall, but there's 3 reliable guys based on the numbers (exactly what I think it's going to be at the beginning of the season)

6. Chris Sale for 2013 Cy Young.

7. I hate Rios, but if he puts up a positive WARP then my hate will be abated.

8. If Morel puts up Gold Glove defense, then I can survive with those numbers. If he puts up average defense, then he should be back in AAA.

9. Detroit has 2 guys who are going to put up 35 HR and 100 RBI. God help us.

Your take?

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