SSS Community Projection 2012: The Hitters

And we're back for day two of the ever-important community projections. Today we peer collectively into one giant crystal ball and divine the future of White Sox hitters in 2012. Just like last year, I'm asking you to project three things:

1) wOBA

2) Plate appearances

3) Defense

Of the three, PAs is obviously the most straight forward. In your opinion, how many PAs will the batter in question receive this season?

Defense is a little more complex, but can be translated pretty easily. At the position I assigned, is the defender above or below average? If he's merely a tick above his peers, call that +2.5. Well above? Maybe that's worth +7.5. If you're judging Broomy McWearsaglove, that might be worth the full -15.

Just to avoid confusing the noobs, I neglected to mention in the above graph that those values as far as I'm concerned are denominated in runs. I'm betting the scale should be obvious enough to either the regulars or the neophytes that we won't run into any problems. Worked well enough last year, so here's hoping.

Lastly, there's wOBA. It's an all encompassing hitting stat that's easier/better for me to work with than asking separately for your batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage.

.320 is average. .330 is a bit above, .310 is a bit below. Last year, Paul Konerko hit .383. Gordon Beckham hit .284. In fact you can click through to see what your favorite Sox did last year in case you're curious. Also, if it's not clear yet, it's scaled to on base percentage. So just as .350 would be a well above average OBP, it's similarly a well above average wOBA. The difference between doing the defense projection and doing wOBA is a slightly different scale.

If you're interested in the technicalities, wOBA is just the rate at which the batter produced runs adjusted to the OBP scale. As I quoted last year:

wOBA is a rate stat, like on base percentage, that expresses how many runs a batter manufactures per plate appearance. It weights PA results (walks, singles, doubles, outs etc.) based on how many runs that result is worth on average. Singles are worth less than doubles, but more than outs. Home runs are king.

Further explanation is available here and here.

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