FanPost

Living or Dayan?

When Dayan Viciedo signed out of Cuba in 2008, the expectation was that he could be a bonafided middle of the order power bat. He had the build, the numbers in Cuba, and didn’t do too shabby in the minors either. He finally made it up in 2010 and to his credit, put up a nice slash of .308/.321/.519/.840, however since then Viciedo’s career has not lived up to expectations to say the least. Since 2010 he’s posted a .255/.301/.418./.719 slash and because of his limited skill set been worth a whopping .1 fWAR.

Speaking of skill sets, history suggests players of similar skill sets as Viciedo, that improvement may be an optimistic outcome. Below is a filtered graph dating back to 1900 of outfielders that had a BB/K ratio less than or equal to .25 and ISO less than or equal to .200.

Name G PA H HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
Adam Jones 914 3668 960 134 500 467 72 4.60% 19.20% 0.18 0.317 0.281 0.323 0.461 0.34 108 -29.3 15.7 16
Carlos Gomez 792 2598 604 62 357 253 160 5.20% 22.80% 0.15 0.311 0.254 0.302 0.403 0.308 88 67.9 21.3 14.8
Corey Patterson 1228 4499 1050 118 571 431 218 4.60% 20.70% 0.148 0.296 0.252 0.29 0.4 0.298 77 43.9 30.7 9.7
Peter Bourjos 346 1112 255 24 139 87 39 5.40% 21.90% 0.147 0.31 0.254 0.308 0.401 0.312 98 37.7 8.5 8.8
Nixey Callahan 730 2869 709 8 330 307 162 4.80% 22.20% 0.075 0.286 0.273 0.312 0.347 0.316 98 -13 14 7.3
Rex Hudler 709 1889 461 56 261 169 106 4.10% 17.20% 0.161 0.29 0.261 0.296 0.422 0.313 89 20 3.7 6
Chris Heisey 402 1110 256 41 145 122 16 5.50% 23.20% 0.182 0.299 0.253 0.308 0.436 0.323 99 11.6 6.8 4.7
Laynce Nix 758 2063 460 69 235 249 9 5.90% 25.90% 0.177 0.295 0.24 0.286 0.417 0.301 79 18.9 4.9 2.9
Cory Snyder 1049 3933 902 149 439 488 28 5.70% 25.20% 0.178 0.296 0.247 0.291 0.425 0.314 93 -46 -2.7 1.5
Ivan Murrell 554 1372 308 33 126 123 20 3.20% 24.90% 0.13 0.294 0.236 0.265 0.366 0.282 75 18 -0.7 1
DeWayne Wise 567 1184 253 31 149 115 55 3.90% 20.70% 0.153 0.264 0.228 0.264 0.381 0.279 65 20.9 0.7 0.5
Wily Mo Pena 599 1845 425 84 211 240 12 6.00% 30.30% 0.195 0.32 0.25 0.303 0.445 0.322 91 -21 -1.7 0.4
Dayan Viciedo 312 1135 275 42 122 141 2 5.10% 21.70% 0.168 0.299 0.26 0.303 0.428 0.318 95 -10.1 -3.6 0.3
Kenny Williams 412 1253 252 27 136 119 49 4.50% 23.10% 0.12 0.266 0.218 0.269 0.339 0.274 67 20 -0.7 0.3
Billy Cowan 493 1253 281 40 131 125 17 4.00% 23.70% 0.151 0.282 0.236 0.269 0.387 0.29 82 -12 0.7 -0.2
Charlie James 510 1479 358 29 158 172 7 3.20% 17.60% 0.115 0.293 0.255 0.283 0.369 0.29 71 19 -1.1 -0.3
Brant Brown 401 1150 261 45 142 146 15 6.40% 27.50% 0.198 0.308 0.247 0.301 0.445 0.32 87 -13 -3.2 -0.6
Delmon Young 960 3866 1026 97 418 513 34 4.10% 18.00% 0.14 0.323 0.283 0.316 0.423 0.32 96 -63.4 -10.1 -1.4
Pedro Munoz 510 1832 467 67 203 252 11 5.50% 22.80% 0.171 0.324 0.273 0.315 0.444 0.334 99 -44 -2 -1.5
John Russell 421 1189 245 34 113 129 3 7.10% 29.90% 0.145 0.298 0.225 0.282 0.371 0.29 78 -34 -0.9 -2.5
Karim Garcia 478 1561 352 66 180 212 10 5.20% 21.10% 0.183 0.265 0.241 0.279 0.424 0.3 78 -22.8 -7.6 -3.9

If you don’t recognize most of these names outside of Jones and Gomez, its obvious why. The collective average wRC+ score is 86 most of these players were between replacement level and league average at best. The picture also becomes bleaker when you realize many of the above were center fielders so trading offense for defense is acceptable. Problem is Viciedo is already a defensive liability at a corner with an under performing bat, all in all just a bad combination. Even if Viciedo were to move over to first base, it’s obvious if he’s ever going to be of value, it’s going to have to come with his bat.

Which leads to this. Is there hope for his bat? Maybe, but it’s going to have to come from his plate discipline which has only gone in the wrong direction each season as seen below.

Season O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact% Zone% F-Strike% SwStr%
2011 36.40% 57.90% 45.70% 73.30% 86.40% 80.40% 43.00% 60.20% 8.70%
2010 38.70% 76.50% 56.80% 54.30% 82.70% 72.60% 47.80% 63.20% 15.30%
2012 39.90% 66.70% 50.90% 66.50% 83.00% 75.40% 41.20% 60.40% 12.20%
2013 41.70% 74.20% 55.30% 70.00% 82.60% 77.10% 41.90% 57.50% 12.40%

For those not familiar with the abbreviations or plate discipline stats in general, you can read about it here. Although the basic jist is, each year he’s increased at swinging at pitches out of the zone, swinging at more pitches in general, and seeing less first pitch strikes. In summary, an eroding approach at the plate if not rectified, will find spell doom for his career.

Yet as I said before, there might be hope. Using filters again, I created a list of players who had a BB/K between .25 and .4 and ISO between .18 and .22. both of which seem like reasonable set points not too far out of Viciedo’s current range. The results are such filtered from highest to lowest BB/K ratio.

Name PA BB% K% BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO Spd BABIP UBR wSB wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+
Hunter Pence 4332 7.20% 18.20% 0.4 0.284 0.337 0.471 0.808 0.187 5 0.32 12 -3.5 603 99.6 0.35 117
Torii Hunter 8414 7.10% 18.00% 0.4 0.278 0.335 0.466 0.801 0.188 4.9 0.309 14.1 -4.8 1142 128.4 0.345 111
Andre Dawson 10768 5.50% 14.00% 0.39 0.279 0.323 0.482 0.806 0.203 5.7 0.288 18.8 1471 247.7 0.35 117
Ryan Ludwick 3481 8.70% 22.20% 0.39 0.263 0.334 0.465 0.799 0.202 2.7 0.304 1.6 -6.5 474 64.3 0.346 114
Jonny Gomes 3347 10.30% 26.80% 0.39 0.244 0.335 0.454 0.789 0.21 4.4 0.295 5 -2.1 445 50.2 0.342 110
Joe Carter 9154 5.80% 15.20% 0.38 0.259 0.306 0.464 0.771 0.205 5.3 0.265 18 1143 70.8 0.334 102
Yoenis Cespedes 1005 7.80% 21.20% 0.37 0.262 0.325 0.468 0.794 0.207 5.3 0.295 2.9 -0.8 134 21.2 0.341 118
Adam Lind 3319 7.20% 19.40% 0.37 0.268 0.321 0.461 0.782 0.194 2.5 0.297 -6.9 -2.8 427 40.8 0.337 106
Josh Reddick 1448 8.00% 21.40% 0.37 0.237 0.299 0.425 0.725 0.188 5.6 0.269 6.7 2.1 160 -3.8 0.312 95
Colby Rasmus 2644 8.70% 24.20% 0.36 0.248 0.316 0.432 0.748 0.184 4.5 0.299 16.5 -3.2 315 12.4 0.325 102
Corey Hart 3802 7.10% 20.40% 0.35 0.276 0.334 0.491 0.824 0.215 5.8 0.313 11.3 -2.9 543 94.2 0.354 117
Geoff Jenkins 5254 8.00% 22.60% 0.35 0.275 0.344 0.49 0.834 0.215 3.8 0.322 -10.3 -0.8 756 102.3 0.354 111
Cody Ross 3562 7.40% 21.10% 0.35 0.264 0.324 0.455 0.78 0.192 3.8 0.304 3.5 -1.1 459 41.7 0.337 106
Matt Kemp 3858 8.00% 23.60% 0.34 0.293 0.35 0.494 0.843 0.201 6.2 0.352 10.7 7.3 569 117.8 0.36 126
Dante Bichette 6856 5.20% 15.70% 0.33 0.299 0.336 0.499 0.835 0.2 4.6 0.32 -1.2 1010 168.6 0.359 104
Brandon Moss 1447 8.40% 25.40% 0.33 0.249 0.317 0.45 0.766 0.201 3.6 0.3 -6.8 -3.5 179 11.4 0.332 106
Glenallen Hill 4033 6.70% 21.00% 0.32 0.271 0.321 0.482 0.804 0.212 4.9 0.302 3 553 60.9 0.348 110
Preston Wilson 4436 7.90% 24.50% 0.32 0.264 0.329 0.468 0.797 0.205 5 0.314 5.8 0.3 595 41.9 0.343 102
John Mayberry 1164 7.40% 23.10% 0.32 0.25 0.308 0.438 0.747 0.188 3.8 0.294 1 -0.9 139 7.4 0.324 102
Craig Monroe 2924 6.40% 20.10% 0.32 0.252 0.301 0.441 0.742 0.189 3.5 0.279 4 -4.8 330 -28.9 0.317 91
Craig Wilson 2311 8.60% 27.80% 0.31 0.262 0.353 0.474 0.827 0.211 4.3 0.335 -3.2 -0.7 340 56 0.357 115
Scott Hairston 2552 6.70% 21.30% 0.31 0.243 0.298 0.447 0.745 0.203 4.8 0.272 -7.1 1.2 296 -6.4 0.321 97
Mark Quinn 1166 4.80% 16.00% 0.3 0.282 0.324 0.481 0.805 0.199 4.6 0.304 0.1 -0.1 159 10.6 0.344 98
Ryan Raburn 1943 7.20% 24.30% 0.29 0.258 0.317 0.446 0.763 0.188 4.2 0.313 8.9 -1.8 241 16.3 0.332 103
Rick Ankiel 2115 7.70% 26.20% 0.29 0.24 0.302 0.422 0.724 0.182 4.2 0.296 2 -1.9 232 -17.3 0.314 91
Pete Incaviglia 4677 7.70% 27.30% 0.28 0.246 0.31 0.448 0.758 0.202 3.5 0.3 -4.6 583 40.4 0.333 104
Melvin Nieves 1392 9.80% 34.70% 0.28 0.231 0.314 0.438 0.752 0.207 3.2 0.319 -4.6 167 -6.9 0.327 91
Michael Morse 1988 6.00% 22.30% 0.27 0.285 0.338 0.481 0.819 0.195 2.4 0.333 -19.4 -2.8 285 57.6 0.355 122
Don Demeter 3730 4.80% 17.60% 0.27 0.265 0.307 0.459 0.766 0.195 3.6 0.282 -4.6 475 64.7 0.335 107
Ryan Thompson 1385 6.50% 25.10% 0.26 0.243 0.301 0.433 0.734 0.19 3.6 0.291 -1.2 -3.3 156 -13.7 0.318 92

While there are still a few duds in this group, there are a lot less than before and this offers some hope of above average potential still. The average wRC+ score of the group is 106, which isn’t fantastic but it better than the 86 from before.

Asking Viciedo to become the next Pence or Hunter is probably asking too much, but something along the lines of a lite Michael Morse? Maybe not. Despite the poor results to date, it’s important to remember he’s only 24. It’s still possible he can turn this around, but first and foremost begins with him learning the strike zone. He might not ever become the middle of the order bat once envisioned, but any improvement to the current product would be welcomed.

Hope you enjoyed, looking forward to reading your take.

Data and graphs capable via FanGraphs.com.

SouthSideSox is a community driven site. As such, users are able to express their thoughts and opinions in a FanPost, such as this one, which represents the views of this particular fan, but not necessarily the entire community or SouthSideSox editors.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join South Side Sox

You must be a member of South Side Sox to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at South Side Sox. You should read them.

Join South Side Sox

You must be a member of South Side Sox to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at South Side Sox. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker