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Owen Schoenfeld's Offseason Plan

Owen Schoenfeld's Offseason Plan

The White Sox improved in 2014, but to become perennial contenders as soon as the 2015 season more moves will have to be made. A combination of splashy signings and trades, along with a few under the radar moves should be enough to make a threat out of a roster that already has a great deal of promise.

Arbitration Cases: (with projected salaries from MLBTR):

Explanation:

Non-tendering Ronald Belisario is the easiest of all these cases. The White Sox's bullpen needs major restructuring and deciding to not give Belisario a contract is essentially addition by subtraction. The other names require deeper examination. Nate Jones is currently recuperating from Tommy John Surgery, but is a hard throwing right handed reliever, so rolling the dice on his recovery carries more upside than risk, especially at that $600,000 price tag.

The White Sox claimed Hector Noesi off of waivers in late April shortly after the Sox tagged him for 7 ninth inning runs a few days prior in Texas. The Sox groomed Noesi into a starter, training him to work deeper into games. The results were mixed. The RHP had a tendency to give up the long ball, but showed that he could pass as a backend starter when he posted a 3.24 ERA over five August starts. If nothing else, Noesi could find himself as a long reliever in 2015.

Javy Guerra posted a 2.91 ERA with the White Sox in 2014, and saved 29 games as a Dodger over a two-year span (2011-2012). Needless to say, considering the state of the White Sox's bullpen, Guerra isn't a bad arm to have.

Tyler Flowers and Dayan Viciedo provide for a little more discussion. Flowers played himself into a contract by posting a .280 average and flashing his power potential after the all-star break. He still needs to cut down on the strikeouts, but he knows the pitching staff well, something the organization consistently touts, and could at least remain in a back-up capacity. Dayan Viciedo is the type of player that makes baseball fans cringe. During hot stretches he looks like a middle of the order bat, and during slumps, which are much more common, he looks like he belongs in Charlotte. His outfield defense leaves much to be desired. The Cuban slugger has a cannon for an arm, but runs terrible routes and produced a -2.4 dWAR in left in 2014. He still managed to hit 20+ home runs, and in an age where the league is starved for right-handed power he might just be a competent trade chip (foreshadowing).

Contract options:

Explanation:

This decision needs no written explanation. See 2014 ERA: 11.29

Free agents:

1. DH Victor Martinez

The White Sox have money to spend, and they'll have to open up their wallet to land Martinez, but the fit couldn't be better. Victor Martinez had a career year in 2014, posting a .335 average with 32 long balls. His .974 ops was the best in baseball, right ahead of Jose Abreu. Except in 2014, Martinez would be behind him. Adam Dunn was a strikeout machine but he provided veteran protection to Jose Abreu, and it isn't outlandish to say that the drop in Abreu's home run numbers may have had something to do with the pitches he was seeing after the Dunn trade. With a player of Martinez's caliber hitting behind him, Abreu would benefit much like two-time MVP Miguel Cabrera has in Detroit. With Dunn and Konerko both off the team in 2015, Martinez would fill the DH spot.

The best part: Martinez is a switch hitter and his LHB and RHB splits were fairly even in 2014 and both were over .300. Martinez actually has more power as a left handed hitter, which is what the White Sox's line up is lacking the most. The biggest con is Martinez's age. He'll be 36 by the start of 2015. While many may view this as a detriment, it is also an advantage. Martinez would instantly become the veteran influence in a Sox clubhouse that is positioned to get only younger in 2015. Martinez will likely command a contract similar to the one Carlos Beltran signed last offseason. As far as the Sox having an inside track to Martinez, he is close with fellow Venezuelan Avisail Garcia. The Chris Sale sign stealing controversy may still be in the back of his mind, but a three-year $48 million dollar deal* should cure that. Oh yeah, there's a bonus: The Sox would be stealing a division rival's number four hitter.

*Martinez will likely be offered a qualifying offer by the Tigers. Signing him would also cost the White Sox their second round pick. Their first round pick is in the top ten and is protected.

2. LHP Andrew Miller

While it would be a flashy move to sign Yankees closer David Robertson to a hefty contract, Miller is actually of greater need to the White Sox. Andrew Miller and his 2.02 ERA in 2014 would quickly wash away memories of Scott Downs. A lefty out of the pen is a necessity and while Miller will come at a high price, he's the quickest way to turn around one of baseball's worst bullpens. The Sox should ink him to a 4-year $35 million deal.

3. RHP Pat Neshek

Here's another reliever the White Sox must go after. He won't be as pricy as Miller, but will offer similar value. At 34 years old, Neshek could become the set up man for whoever emerges as a closer candidate. Most likely in house candidates will be given extended looks for the closer spot, and Neshek himself had six saves with the Cardinals last year. The Sox should sign him to a three-year $18 million deal.

4. RHP Matt Lindstrom

Lindstrom missed significant time on the south side with an ankle injury in 2014. He pitched fairly well before his injury, compiling a 3.32 ERA before the all-star break. He didn't dazzle when he was in the closer's spot, but wasn't horrid either. The Sox can probably get him on a 1-year $4 million for 2015, and they'll need the depth.

Trades:

C Jason Castro (Houston Astros)

Castro was likely a trade target for the White Sox last offseason, but the price tag was undoubtedly too high. Coming off an all-star season in 2013, the Astros were hesitant to trade him. After hitting .222 with 14 home runs, and 56 RBIs in 2014, Castro has decreased his value making him the perfect buy-low candidate. Castro is still only 27 years old and had an .835 ops in 2013. Castro, a former first round draft pick, bats left handed and would become the White Sox's starting catcher. The Astros are high on minor leaguer catcher Max Stassi and have failed to ink Castro to an extension. The Astros would receive IF Carlos Sanchez, who showed decent potential during his short 2014 stint in Chicago, and RHP Tyler Danish. Danish has a ceiling as a starter, but profiles more as a bullpen arm. While he has attractive stuff, he'll be needed to acquire Castro. Carlos Sanchez is expendable because, while valuable defensively, Micah Johnson is the future at second base. (Projected salary: $3.9 million mlbtraderumors.com)

RHP Brandon Mauer, and RHP prospect Lars Huijer (Seattle Mariners)

For those of you waiting, this is why Dayan Viciedo was tendered a contract. The Seattle Mariners have been searching for power for quite some time. After Robinson Cano, the line up leaves plenty of room for improvement. The Mariners have been rumored to have interest in Viciedo and Brandon Mauer's name has even been mentioned on the rumor mill as a potential return. Rick Hahn stated that the White Sox would make finding a hard throwing reliever a priority this offseason. Mauer's fastball hovers around 93 and while he doesn't hit triple digits, he has the ability to throw 96. Mauer is only 24 years old and would be a great addition to the White Sox's bullpen. Lars Huijer is a RHP who is rated Seattle's #18 prospect by mlb.com. He has a tendency to produce ground balls, something the White Sox love, and a ceiling as a back end to mid rotation starter. Flipping Viciedo for these arms would be a great deal.

RHP Chris Archer (Tampa Bay Rays)

The White Sox are in desperate need of a right-handed starter to break up their glut of lefties, especially if Carlos Rodon joins the rotation in 2015. The Rays signed Archer to a guaranteed 6-year $25.5 million contract before the start of last season. The contract also sports two option years of $9 million and $11 million respectively. Archer has a 3.39 ERA over three seasons with the Rays and is entering his prime at 26 years old. It is going to take a lot to pry him from the Rays, so Marcus Semien will have to be included in the deal. I believe Micah Johnson should start for the White Sox at 2nd base next year, and while Semien would make a great super utility player, the White Sox have enough depth at the position to make up for his departure. Johnson has a chance to hit for a high average and is a speedster, grading out at 80 on the 20-80 scale for speed. The Royals have shown this postseason just how big of a weapon speed is, and the White Sox will likely give him the chance to wreak havoc on the base paths. Marcus Semien is major league ready and has shown enough potential to be attractive to the Rays who could test him at second base and even in the outfield, where he had some experience at Charlotte in 2014. Archer is potentially a top of the rotation guy, so the Sox will have to part with #5 OF prospect Courtney Hawkins* as well as #12 RHP prospect Spencer Adams, who was a steal for the Sox in this year's draft. It's a high cost, but one that stabilizes the Sox's rotation for years to come. (2015 salary: $1 million)

*Hawkins is expendable because Eaton, Garcia, and this next trade acquisition will be holding down the outfield for quite some time.

OF Matt Kemp (Dodgers)

This is a blockbuster deal that instantly catapults the Sox into the conversation for the AL Central crown. The Dodgers have an extremely crowded outfield with the likes of Andre Ethier, Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, and top prospect Joc Pederson. One of Kemp, Crawford, and Either will be traded. Kemp is a likely candidate to be moved due to clubhouse controversy involving playing time and the unappealing contracts of the other two. Matt Kemp put up MVP numbers in 2011, hitting 39 home runs, while posting a robust .324 average. Kemp has declined since then, mostly due to a variety of injuries that have kept him sidelined. There's still an injury risk with Kemp but his 17 homers and .309 average after the all-star break showed just how much value he still has. The trick with this Kemp trade is that the White Sox will take on a lot of the contract, lowering the return the Dodgers will receive. Kemp is owed $21.5 million in each season from 2015-2019. That totals to $107.5 million. The White Sox could pay $90 million of that contract and probably only have to give up a two-player package headlined by RHP Francellis Montas. Montas is a steal for the White Sox. Coming from Boston in the Jake Peavy deal, the hard throwing righty is the White Sox's #3 prospect. Some scouts believe he has frontline potential, with his fastball being his best pitch, grading out at a 70. Still, Montas was virtually a non-prospect a year ago and with Sale, Quintana, Rodon, and Archer (see above trade) rounding out the rotation there will be little room for Montas. The Sox will have to part with #9 3B prospect Trey Michalczewski as well. Sure, it will hurt to lose Montas, but adding Kemp to a line up with Jose Abreu and Victor Martinez will make the White Sox a threat to make a deep playoff run as soon as this season, and certainly by 2016. (2015 salary: $18 million*)

*Dodgers will pay average of $3.5 million of Kemp's salary annually

Summary

Projected 2015 starting rotation:

LHP Chris Sale

RHP Chris Archer

LHP Jose Quintana

LHP Carlos Rodon

LHP John Danks

Projected 2015 starting line up:

1. CF Adam Eaton (L)

2. RF Avisail Garcia (R)*

3. 1B Jose Abreu (R)

4. DH Victor Martinez (S)

5. LF Matt Kemp (R)

6. SS Alexei Ramirez (R)

7. C Jason Castro (L)

8. 3B Connor Gillaspie (L)

9. 2B Micah Johnson (R)

*While he'll eventually become a middle of the order hitter, Avisail Garcia would be ideal in the two spot. His power game is still developing and by hitting second he'd be relieved of the pressure placed on a clean-up hitter and would receive protection from Jose Abreu.

Projected 2015 payroll: $109,716,666 million

These moves are bold, especially the signing of Victor Martinez and the trades for Matt Kemp and Chris Archer. However, the White Sox have the pieces and the financial flexibility to pull off these moves. The above acquisitions would make the White Sox contenders as soon as this season and provide the opportunity for the contention window to be open for many subsequent years. The trades for Matt Kemp, Chris Archer, and Jason Castro fill the holes in left, the rotation, and at catcher respectively. The signing of Victor Martinez fills the DH position, while the signings of Andrew Miller, Pat Neshek, Matt Lindstrom, and the trade for Brandon Mauer lock up the bullpen. The White Sox likely won't be able to convert on all of these moves, but all of them are plausible. Rick Hahn has said that the White Sox need to have an offseason as good as last year's. Considering Jose Abreu and Adam Eaton were brought in last offseason, and Avisail Garcia was acquired at the 2013 deadline, the above moves are what "aggressive" means to me.

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