Friend of the podcast and supermarket menace Dan Szymborski released his ZiPS projections for the 2015 White Sox, and on the whole, it's good news. At least if you compare it to last year.
Entering the 2014 season, ZiPS projected only five everyday position players to eclipse 1 WAR, and just one to top a 100 OPS+.
This year? They have seven players worth at least 1 WAR, and four hitters with an OPS+ at 100 or higher.
That may not sound like high praise, but one shouldn't expect White Sox projections to bowl you over. For one, their best hitters (aside from Adam Eaton) don't provide much in the way of defensive value, and the system is designed to not get too excitable over a year of results.
That said, a handful of Sox made noteworthy headway against their history with stronger-than-expected 2014 seasons.
2014 | 2015 | |
Jose Abreu | 2.3 | 3.5 |
Adam Eaton | 1.5 | 2.8 |
Tyler Flowers | 0.6 | 1.3 |
Conor Gillaspie | 0.8 | 1.1 |
Abreu, Eaton and Flowers could very well raise their own bars by this time next year, while Gillaspie joins Alexei Ramirez (2 WAR) and Adam LaRoche (1.5 WAR) with projections that have likely arrived at their destinations, but serve a purpose nevertheless.
That brings us to the corner outfielders, and a theme we've touched on a few times -- Avisail Garcia can make or break this lineup.
PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | Def | WAR | |
Avisail Garcia | 433 | .269 | .309 | .417 | 97 | -3 | 0.3 |
Melky Cabrera | 598 | .296 | .342 | .440 | 113 | -4 | 1.7 |
Neither of these projections are unfair or invalid, but one can construct arguments for which ZiPS can't quite account. Cabrera has cleared that bar whenever he hasn't had a spinal tumor over his last four seasons. Garcia has the tools and scouts in his favor; he just needs to avoid playing Human Jart on sinking liners. The White Sox certainly believe these to be true, and they're not leaps of faith. They just need to happen.
The pitching side is less complicated. ZiPS believes Chris Sale is a star and Jeff Samardzija and Jose Quintana are very good behind him. After that, the rotation is a mess.
John Danks loses about a full win off his projections (from 0.5 WAR in 2014 to -0.4 WAR in 2015), and ZiPS kills him for the spike in walks. While it's true Danks doubled his walk rate in 2014, he slashed his home run rate drastically. I'm inclined the two are related and he ultimately benefited from throwing fewer awful strikes, but 2015 will be a tie-breaker in that regard.
Hector Noesi poses an even bigger crisis of faith, as he's stuck in a tug-of-war between a minor Don Cooper miracle and his putrid, putrid past.
IP | BB% | K% | HR/9 | ERA | FIP | ERA+ | WAR | |
White Sox 2014 | 166.0 | 7.7 | 16.7 | 1.46 | 4.39 | 4.85 | 88 | 1.3 |
Projected 2015 | 138.2 | 8.3 | 15.0 | 1.75 | 5.84 | 5.69 | 70 | -1.2 |
I can see Noesi and Danks beating the projections and landing safely in above-replacement-level territory, but I can also see 2014 being the best either pitcher can do from here on out. Their projections are so pessimistic that those notions aren't mutually exclusive, but it's highly preferable that the Sox have a replacement and/or understandable backup plan for both. Carlos Rodon is only one guy.
(Rodon's projection, by the way: a lot of strikeouts, a lot of walks, and the fourth-highest WAR on the pitching staff.)