FanPost

Buy, Sell, or CarGo?

With this recent run, we've got to ask ourselves: are the Sox buyers or sellers? (you can find a slightly different version of this here)

But even after passing the Tigers last night in the standings, four teams stand in between the Sox and the second wild card slot: the Twins, Orioles, Rays, and Jays. While passing the Twins and Rays do not appear to be heavy lifts; catching, passing, and holding off the Jays and, to a certain extent, the O’s is a much tougher task. The Jays have more talent that the Sox. The Tulo trade only made them better. They’re going to find a starter by Friday (maybe even Samardzija). They’ll be tough to pass and hold off. And the Sox are a bad weekend away from slipping behind the Tigers and Rangers again.

Hoping that the Angels or Astros crash is probably wishful thinking. Either team would have to play below .500 ball the rest of the way to fall out of the wild card race. I could see it happening with Houston, but they’re probably a safe bet to win 88 games and make the wild card, even if they play so-so from here on out.

Back to the Sox… I see them as sellers since they still need to play really well to be a serious wild card contender.

The Sox are in a nice position with Samardzija. Since they'll get draft compensation for him, any team that wants him needs to 'beat' the value of the pick. If no one can, the Sox can play the last two months of the year with the best starting rotation in the AL and who knows, maybe the offense keeps this up.

But if another GM wants to move a top, say, 75 or seeing how crazy the market is right now, top 50 prospect for Samardzija, the Sox should probably jump on that. The odds are against them making the playoffs after all. And with the core the Sox have, a good winter could put them in a great position for 2016. Adding another high level prospect will only help in that process.

But... I wouldn’t mind seeing the Sox make a move that could help this year and beyond.

The Sox have glaring holes at second, short, and rightfield. We should probably add DH and third, but Saladino, in a small sample size, has done enough for them to look to those other positions first. They’re not going to find a shortstop at this juncture. I’m not sure who’s out there to help at second. So that leaves right field.

If the Rockies are going to unload Carlos Gonzalez, the Sox should kick the tires. He’s owed $43.5 million (roughly) over the the rest of this season and the next two. He’s an injury risk. And he was really bad this year until about a month ago (Melky can relate). But he’s been on fire recently and has a darn good track record prior to his heavily injury filled 2014.

I'm working under the assumption that a win is worth $6m right now. I might be low I realize, but $7m feels high too me. A healthy CarGo should live up to his contract, and frankly, probably surpass it over the next two plus seasons. At $43m, you'd expect a WAR of 7+ and over 2.4 seasons, that's just under 3 WAR per season. A healthy Gonzalez should reach that level of production.

But his injuries over last few seasons are a cause for concern for any team trying to make a deal. Thus, I don’t think the price for GarGo will be all that high as one might think considering the money he’s owed, his poor 2014 and start to 2015, and, again, his injury issues (he was great in 2013, but only played 110 games and missed most of last season and even before that seems to have landed on the DL once a season). If the Sox take on most of his salary, they can probably get him for a lot less than people assume. I’m talking maybe Avi Garcia, Trayce Thompson*, and a mid-level pitching prospect. And even that might be an overpay considering the money owed.

*I don't really wanna move Thompson, but I could see the Rockies wanting him more than nearly every other prospect the Sox would realistically give up. Trayce is flawed, but everyone says he's got a good glove and power, and being able to cover a lot of ground in the outfield is a must for Colorado.

The Sox already have $89 million committed to payroll in 2016, and they’ll need at least one starting pitcher, a catcher, and a shortstop (though they may try to fill this internally). CarGo at $17 million would push the Sox committed salary to $106 million, which then means Danks is (most likely) still in the rotation and Erik Johnson (or someone else in the minors) rounds out the starting staff (unless ownership okays them spending $120 million plus next year). They can make CarGo work, but it limits the off season at the same time.

Then again, this is a seller's market and if the Rockies aren't looking to unload all of CarGo's salary, then it's possible the Sox send someone (Danks? LaRoche?) to Denver to offset some of CarGo’s cost; Rockies still save about $20-25 million and the Sox are only on the hook for $20 million more in guaranteed money. However, any cost savings to the Sox means they’re giving up better prospects; the deal quickly becomes Spencer Adams, Garcia*, another arm, and Thompson/Hawkins for CarGo.

*If the Sox trade for an outfielder, I feel that Avi Garcia pretty much has to going the other way. Avi’s only 24 but he's a minus defender, and he probably needs a new start with another organization at this point (as pointed out by Jim Margalus iirc). He’s probably not an everyday major leaguer, but maybe someone else can talk themselves into fixing him. At this point, he's a throw in.
CarGo is probably worth two wins over Garcia, maybe three if he keeps up this tear he’s on. His bat slides in perfectly at the cleanup spot (I’m assuming Abreu’s hitting third, if he’s hitting second, CarGo bats third). And while the Sox would still have a problem at the bottom of the order, CarGo’s bat and glove (which is regressing but) would be a major improvement for the Sox.

I have no clue where the Sox finish up right now. There decent play in July, between the awesome pitching and suddendly alive offense, I see the Sox winning anywhere form 77 to 87 games right now (yes, that big of a spread). I have no clue how many wins this team ends up with. CarGo won't make a difference if the Sox are around .500; but if they push the 85 win needle, he could be the difference in the wild card race.

--Another option is Carlos Gomez, but he’s going to cost more since his contract is much more reasonable and he’s been an elite player in 2013 and 2014 without the injury concerns. He’s been fine this year and would be an upgrade for the Sox, though I’m not sure who plays right if they trade for Gomez. Eaton’s arm would be an issue there. So pass on Gomez as far as an in-season trade even though he'd help, he isn't as good of a fit for this year's team imo.

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