This is sort of a half-measure between what I would do if it were up to me and what I think the Sox might actually do, because if there’s one thing we know, the Sox are all about half-measures.
Arbitration-eligible:
Todd Frazier $13.5M - Tender
Brett Lawrie $5.1M - Tender
Avisail Garcia $churros - Non-Tender
Miguel Gonzalez $2.6M - Tender
Dan Jennings $1.2M - Tender
JB Shuck $1M - Non-Tender, re-sign for Charlotte
Jake Petricka $900K - Tender
Zach Putnam $900K - Non-Tender
Daniel Webb $surgery - Non-Tender
Relatively consistent with the other plans, I'm just not a fan of Putnam, I've seen the splitter fail and him become useless too many times. Feel free to complain about me cutting him and signing some free agent bullpen arms.
Contract options (pick up or buy out)
Matt Albers: $250K buyout
Impending free agents
Austin Jackson: Let go
Alex Avila: Let go
Justin Morneau: Let go
Side Note: They should cut James Shields too.
Free agents
No. 1: Mitch Moreland
I’m not going to peg a salary here, but Moreland is a very capable 1B/DH and will provide solid Abreu insurance in the event that the arbitration process gives him a buttload of money and the Sox decide to trade him eventually.
No. 2: Jason Castro
Probably the most obvious choice here.
No.3: Mike Dunn
Bullpen needs lefties, Dunn is a guy the organization actually drafted years ago and will likely be modestly paid.
No.4: Carlos Gomez
Aging declining head case. Sounds like a starting outfielder for the White Sox.
No.5: Sergio Romo
Sort of a reach here. Sox have some late inning options in house but the bullpen is overall pretty thin. We’ll see what he costs.
No.6: Derek Holland
Kenny always gets his man.
STASH PICKUPS: Lourdes Gurriel & Norge Ruiz
They will both be 23 and exempt from bonus pool restrictions this offseason, and Rick did sign Abreu and made a good faith effort on Tanaka. If these guys fall in a certain price range, I see Rick being in on them.
It would be a very Sox-like move to spend a little bit of money in order to temporarily plug a bunch of weak spots. If they look toward the future, Gurriel & Ruiz make sense.
Trades
I don’t see anything real notable happening on the trade front. I think the actual value of Sale and Quintana is really up in the air, and you see that even in this theoretical exercise. I saw one offseason plan where Sale netted a return worse than the return in either Craig Kimbrel trade, and then another one that would decimate the Red Sox farm for the next 5 years (I like that one). It’s really hard to gauge what the obvious trade chips are worth, so I’m going to stand pat.
Lineup:
C - Castro/Narvaez
1B - Abreu
2B - Lawrie/Saladino
SS - Anderson/Sanchez or Alvarez (Gurriel wouldn't be ready at the start of the season)
3B - Frazier
DH - Moreland
RF - Eaton
CF - Gomez/Tilson or May if they go in house
LF - Cabrera
It’s ok, not great.
Rotation:
Sale
Quintana
Rodon
Gonzalez
Holland
Bullpen:
Robertson
Jones
Dunn
Romo
Jennings
Petricka
Burdi
Someone other than Tommy Fucking Kahnle
Summary
The only two moves that I’m really confident in are tendering Frazier and signing Castro. We’ll see how creative Rick & Kenny get, and hopefully they’re good next year.
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