South Side Sox

With Very Important Eyes watching, Sox start youth movement

2008-12-04T02:43:25Z

With Very Important Eyes watching, Sox start youth movement

CBS's Scott Miller pens an article on the White Sox Youth Movement™, and peppers in some quotes from Ken Williams. Normally, I'd just pull the most interesting Williams' quote, but I can't tell which quotes are fresh and which are stale and used to frame the story Miller is trying to tell. Read, and decide for yourself.

White Sox Aren't Done Dealing: Baseball Prospectus (Subscription Req'd)

2008-12-03T20:00:26Z

White Sox Aren't Done Dealing: Baseball Prospectus (Subscription Req'd)

Though the White Sox have a trade in place to ship right-hander Javier Vazquez to the Braves, they aren't done dealing, and there are whispers that they are working on a blockbuster that would send closer Bobby Jenks and right fielder Jermaine Dye to the Mets for a package that would include center-field prospect Fernando Martinez. ..

Reading The Vazquez Trade Tea Leaves

2008-12-03T07:12:30Z

It now appears as if most outlets are in agreement on the return from the Javier Vazquez trade.

Braves get: Javier Vazquez, Boone Logan, Late Inning Headaches
White Sox get: Tyler Flowers, Jon Gilmore, Brent Lillibridge, Santos Rodriguez, $23M lighter

It's late, and I got preoccupied planning for a downtime that didn't exsist, so I'll just point you to Jim's completely fictional blog for some specifics on the players the Sox are receiving. I'd like to spend some more time talking about the bigger picture.

What are the White Sox Doing?

The simple answer is dumping payroll, getting younger. But closer inspection--hell, it doesn't even take close inspection--reveals another force is at work, a winter cleaning of Ozzie Guillen's doghouse.

In two trades the Sox have purged themselves of three players in whom Guillen no longer had confidence. Nick Swisher played his way out of town with a pouting act and a .197 second-half batting average. Vazquez chartered his flight with a 13.22 ERA in his final 4 starts as a member of the White Sox, taking Boone Logan and his 38 baserunners in his final 10 IP along with him as a carry-on.

Unlike the Swisher trade, this deal netted the Sox some prospects with some real upside. Tyler Flowers is shooting up prospect lists after his 12 homer performance in the AFL, where KW is said to have "drooled over" him. He's a big body who won't stick behind the plate long term, but would be a huge get if he can provide adequately-below-average defense for a few years. Jon Gilmore is a young, toolsy third baseman with power potential who struggled in his brief foray into A-ball, but hit well in rookie ball. (Red flag: has just 19 walks in 522 minor league at-bats) Santos Rodriguez is unknown who struck out a bunch of rookie leaguers while pitching from the pen as a league-repeater.

While those 3 figure to spend all of the '09 season in the minor leagues, Brent Lillibridge should find himself competing for a spot on the Sox roster. Not that I have any idea how he fits, or even why he deserves such a right. To say I'm not a fan of Lillibridge's is an understatement. I didn't like what I saw from him in the '07 futures game (admittedly, the only time I've seen him), and he's done nothing at the plate to change my mind in the 18 months since then.

Moreover, I don't really understand where he fits in the Sox plans. They've added Wilson Betemit and Jayson Nix to their in-house candidates, Josh Fields and Chris Getz at 3B and 2B, respectively, and figure to officially add Dayan Viciedo soon. Though, I've already expressed my doubts about his ability to compete for a job this spring. I don't think Lillibridge is here to take Alexei's shortstop gig away from him. I suppose he might be competing for a utility role--he apparently has a good glove--with Betemit figured to keep third base warm for Viciedo. Lillibridge was once thought by some to be a candidate to replace the outgoing Andruw Jones in Atlanta's center field, but he couldn't find his way onto the '08 roster, and after posting a .294 AAA OBP and a consistent 3:1 K/BB ratio above A-ball, I'd say it's a safe bet that he shouldn't find his way onto the Sox '09 roster either.

If there's any single reason to be put off by this deal, aside from acquiring what looks like another future 1B/DH type, or failing to acquire a young starter in return, or Lillibridge in general, or that the Sox don't figure to have get any benefit out of the deal in '09, it's that John Schuerholz and his scouting staff tend to come out on top in these type of deals. (Note: I know he's no longer technically the GM, but it's still his staff and he's the F'n team president.) Last year he stole Jair Jurrgens from Detroit. And the year before that it was Rafael Soriano for Horacio Ramirez. The last deal that's truly comparable to this one, however, is the Hudson trade. Dan Meyer never turned into anything and Juan Cruz, despite his strikeout rate and type-A status, has not delivered on his former promise. Reportedly the Sox were allowed to pick 4 from a list of 5 prospects. No doubt the Braves felt safe losing any of the players listed.

What does the rotation look like now?

As of this moment the Sox have 3 starters, Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd. The immortal Jeff Marquez, Clayton Richard and Aaron Poreda will fight for the remaining two spots, though one of Richard/Poreda will likely end up in the pen as a LOOGY with potential. Lance Broadway and Jack Egbert are next in line for a starting spot, which, along with Marquez and his terrible AAA K-rate, is probably why the Sox are looking for a young starter in return in the rumored Jermaine Dye trades. Jose Contreras may return sometime late in '09, but it's best to simply think of him as lost for the season and be pleasantly surprised if he exceeds expectations.

No really, what are the White Sox doing?

I can't say for sure. The winter meetings are still a week away, and the Sox have already cut their projected '09 payroll down to the $96M range. Perhaps the economy has hit them hard. Perhaps they are embarking on the rebuilding that should have started in May of '07. Perhaps they're clearing payroll to make a run at a mystery free agent, even though they'd swear otherwise. Perhaps they're clearing room to lock up their arbitration eligible (Jenks) or soon-to-be eligible players (Q!, Danks and Floyd) and buy out a couple years of free agency, a return to the cost-certainty-era Sox. There's only one thing I can say for certain, this will not be the White Sox last move of the off-season. I'm almost expecting Dye to be dealt at the Winter Meetings, netting a young starter in return, and picking up a free-agent outfielder on the cheap as the market craters late in January. Whatever happens figures to be exciting, surprising, and should give us plenty of discussion fodder for the rest of the off-season.

Vazquez Downtime To Be Covered Live Off-Site

2008-12-03T03:00:36Z

Open this page in a separate window or tab, and Do Not Refresh (as SSS is set to go dark in the next half hour). The Cover It Live box should remain active and allow discussion in the downtime. Comments are closed, to be opened when we return from darkness.

[Note by The Cheat, 12/02/08 10:59 PM CST]: It appears as though I may have overreacted to my email, as the outage was only supposed to last for minutes during the timeframe listed. Oops. Comment reopened. I'll have a trade recap up before I hit the sack.

The Latest Vazquez Rumors

2008-12-03T02:27:07Z

The Latest Vazquez Rumors

Still don't know all the players in the proposed Vazquez deal, but we need a new thread.

As of right now, the latest info has the Sox receiving a package of 4 prospects picked from a list of 5. Best guess at their names appears to be Brent Lillibridge (for sure) Tyler Flowers (almost positive), Jon Gilmore (until we hear different) and Santos Rodriguez (I think).

Unfortunately Timed Emergency Outage Planned

2008-12-02T23:11:00Z

Unfortunately Timed Emergency Outage Planned

Start Date: Tuesday, December 2, 2008; 10:30PM (EST)
End Date: Wednesday, December 3, 2008; 12:30AM (EST)

Our tech team sends along note that our web provider will be undergoing some form of emergency maintenance tonight for the time listed above. Neither Kenny Williams nor Javier Vazquez were consulted.

Ruminations on Rumors (w/ Bonus Vazquez Rumor)

2008-12-02T22:39:56Z

Scanning Google Reader -- Suck it, Bloglines! -- over the past 24 hours, I came across a couple of related entries from two completely different type of sites. I thought about posting them separately as FanShots, but I thought they combined to frame a more robust discussion about the baseball rumor landscape.

In the first, Will Carrol, of Pete Rose reinstated and Washington Grays fame, as well as Baseball Prospectus' Under The Knife, recently announced that he would not be participating in the rumor mongering during the upcoming winter meetings (Dec. 8-11th). Not that I really care; as he says, the market is saturated with plenty of hard-working journos (both Carrol and Aaron Gleeman cite Ken Rosenthal in particular). No, I'm linking to his resignation from the rumor game because of the numbers he cites about the rumors themselves.

Paul DePodesta wrote that 25% of rumors have any basis in fact. I spoke with Andrew Friedman earlier this year and he gave a slightly higher number. I’d say that the number is higher still, probably about 50%. There’s some nugget of truth, some overheard conversation or leak, some good source talking out of school in — just a guess — half. About 25% is chatter - secondary things that aren’t quite right, people talking about things that never quite get to the real talking stage. I can remember a team saying they liked a guy and then a couple weeks later, that guy was in a trade rumor involving the team. It didn’t happen, but someone filled in the gap with something plausible. Not right, but not entirely wrong.

About 10% beyond that is trial balloons. They aren’t facts, but agents and teams like to get stuff out there and it’s useful to some extent, assuming you can pick apart the layers of anonymity. I’d argue there’s real value here in that it helps create action. In Moneyball, Peter Gammons was shown to be a go-between, an information clearinghouse for what teams were trying to do and there’s unquestionably a value there.

It’s the other 15% that’s worrisome. It’s the whole cloth, puff of smoke lies that throw everything off and give the whole process a bad name. I’ll split that into half "good" and half "evil" — the good smoke is just talking points, people throwing ideas on the wall and covering them in a thin candy shell of credibility. The evil smoke is designed to do something, to create action or in most cases, just attention. These seldom hold up very long, but they’re out there and worse, there’s some big name people that do this far too often, likely under pressure of deadline or an editor telling them to produce something.

The second comes from Gawker, the New York and media centric mega-blog, which uses the recent news that David Gregory will (read: may) take over at Meet The Press as a backdrop for a discussion on rumors and journalism on the internet.

In classic journalism, rumors had to be double-sourced before, say, a newspaper would run with them. So you get a tip, then you have to find some other person who would know to agree with it. That person should not be the original tipster. Pretty simple.

But everything is new and different now! Online "news" outlets are not all as professional as we are around here. Rumors pop up everywhere online, all the time. But here's the key difference between now and the old days: if a rumor is reported online, people tend to treat it as a rumor until it's reported somewhere else. Then, two places have it up separately, and ta-da! It's the internet version of double-sourcing. It doesn't necessarily require any enterprise on the part of lazier blogs—just wait until two places report it, and it's gold! No actual sources necessary!

How do the two relate? Well, without truly knowing the ins-and-outs--I'm just a blogger, remember--I'd argue that there is no Two-Scource-Rule for a baseball rumor. If it's whispered and can pass the smell test, it'll probably be written about, or at least re-whispered on the radio. But I'd also argue that we, as semi-functional basement-dwellers, have formed something of our own Two-Source-Rule. Take the Jermaine Dye Rumors, for instance.

Dye has been mentioned in regards to numerous teams, but the rumor that seems to have taken hold involves the Reds. Why? Because it's been written about by different outlets--Some Cinci radio station (not WKRP), The Enquirer, ChiSox.com, and the Trib--though all seem to be using a similar source, pointing back at the first source and adding Jockety's non-denial. So now it's a super-duper, 4-star, rhodium-plated rumor, because it has multiple sources....

And, I'll end that discussion there--even though I had more to say--because the Best-In-The-Business has a Hot-Off-The-Stove rumor for us.

The Braves, moving to address their starting pitching needs, are in serious discussions with the White Sox about a trade for right-hander Javier Vazquez, according to major-league sources.

The White Sox would receive as many three players in return. Left-hander Jo-Jo Reyes and infielder Brent Lillibridge are among the names under discussion, sources said.

[Update by The Cheat, 12/02/08 5:04 PM CST]: The opening line of Rosenthal's article now reads "The Braves, moving to address their starting pitching needs, are on the verge of acquiring right-hander Javier Vazquez from the White Sox, according to major-league sources." (emphasis added is mine)

[Update by The Cheat, 12/02/08 6:05 PM CST]: Rosenthal now says it's done pending physicals. Announcement Wednesday or Thursday. Players departing: Vazquez and Boone Logan. Players arriving: Brent Lillibridge (short, fast, scrappy, middle infielder with a hole in his swing), a young starter thought to be Charlie Morton (mediocre, uninspiring back-of-the-rotation candidate) and possibly Tyler Flowers (Power and plate discipline catcher, who just destroyed the AFL, but needs work behind the plate).

Link Dump: 12/1

2008-12-01T19:30:10Z

I also made this table on Excel. Basically, if you use the positional adjustments and hold constant everything else, you can figure out what a league average defender needs to hit (in wOBA over 600 PA) at a position to be league average overall. And once that's done, you can add defense back in and make this chart. As is evident, 10 points of wOBA over 600 PA is worth half a win. I think it's pretty cool, anyway.

Arb News from MLB trade rumors - Nothing really big, but a good recap of what's goin' on.
Gil gets his wins accounted - Nice to see this, since I can use it for...
This! which I've already linked to, but hey that's cool right? It's my win accounting google doc, plus a bunch of other stuff, most of which is worth checking in on if you haven't in a while.
John Walsh looks at the extent to which pitchers actually have pinpoint control. It's a pretty interesting idea and application of pitch f/x stuff. I would also bet that the metric he uses there would line up pretty well with my balls called/strikes called command metric.
Cripple Fight! - Just wanted you guys to know that 2008 Michigan probably wasn't as bad as 2007 Notre Dame. Charlie sets the bar, and we clear it baby.
Rob Neyer also links to Seidman's win accounting and provides a little context.

Dye-ing For Fresh News

2008-12-01T03:57:14Z

Last week we pointed to a report stating the Sox were shopping Jermaine Dye to the Reds, looking for a young pitcher (and more) in return, and were looking to trim some payroll. Baseball essentially shut down over the Thanksgiving holiday, and there won't be any real news until teams make their arbitration offers official sometime Monday, so here's some stale news.

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says that Dye is a fit for a number of teams, but they seem put off by the price.

The White Sox right fielder fits so well with a few teams, including Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and the Mets. The Rays are trying to deal the back of their starting rotation - Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson - for a power-hitting righthanded bat, but the White Sox would want more.

John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer gets Reds GM Walt Jockety to issue a non-denial about the Dye talks.

As for talk that the Reds could be interested in outfielder Jermaine Dye, whom the Chicago White Sox are reported to be shopping, Jocketty said:

"I'm not going to comment. But we have talked to the White Sox about some players. Nothing is close."

The way tampering rules work, Jocketty cannot say he's pursuing Dye. But in the case of San Diego shortstop Khalil Greene, Jocketty was comfortable shooting down the rumor.

And finally, Mark Gonzales acknowledges the reports adding a couple more names to the fray.

The teams appear to be a match because the Reds are looking for a right-handed hitter to go with young left-handed hitters Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, and the Reds have a wealth of talented pitchers, including Homer Bailey, Josh Roenicke and Matt Maloney.

Of course, here I am writing about it without much to add. I will add that if the Sox are going to trade Dye for the proposed packages, I see it as the first of a series of moves. They can't go into another season with one-and-a-half outfielders. And now Jerry Owens can go about dominating the third consecutive thread here. Paradoxically, it will be the first time he's ever dominated anything three consecutive times.

Happy Birthday, Minnie, No Matter Your Age: The Baseball Analysts

2008-11-30T04:16:54Z

Happy Birthday, Minnie, No Matter Your Age: The Baseball Analysts

Miñoso was lauded in other ways. He had his jersey #9 retired by Bill Veeck and the White Sox in 1983. Furthermore, Miñoso was invited to present the White Sox lineup card to the umpires in the pregame ceremonies at home plate in the last game played at the old Comiskey Park on September 30, 1990. He also took part in the victory parade for the Chicago White Sox 2005 World Series Championship and his statue stands on the outfield concourse at U.S. Cellular Field.

Who wants Ken Griffey Jr?

2008-11-28T23:46:41Z

Who wants Ken Griffey Jr?

Multiple teams, according to this MLB.com article. This could be good news for the Sox who might be able to pick up an extra draft pick by offering Junior arbitration. Though given the Sox recent reluctance to offer arbitration to departing players, I doubt they'll be willing to take the risk of him accepting.

Pass The Stuffing

2008-11-27T06:55:35Z

I was perusing the archives a moment ago and came across an entry I posted titled "The White Sox are a $100M Mid-Market Club." The post was essentially my reaction to the Sox losing out (read: being used as a pawn) in the Miguel Cabrera derby, which concluded with the scathing line "The Sox missed out on their 'big fish' because they refused to spend enough money on bait."

The gist of the post was that the Sox weren't use their resources to their fullest extent, specifically as it pertained to obtaining amateur talent.

The White Sox farm system seems destined to be named the 29th best (2nd worst) in all of baseball. And thanks to some dubious extensions and pretty terrible middle relief signing, the only thing about the White Sox which could be considered Big Market is their payroll.

The White Sox are unwilling to pay over slot in the first-year player draft.

The White Sox are (seemingly) afraid to offer arbitration to departing free agents. (Perhaps to help limit draft costs.) The last time they had multiple extra picks thanks to arbitration they got top prospects Josh Fields and Gio Gonzalez, who fell due to unfounded character concerns. The rest of the draft was filled with overdrafts who would sign below slot (Wes Whisler, Dony Lucy, Ray Liotta.)

The White Sox have been unwilling to compete for high-dollar amateur international talent, with the SS Silveiro marking their only $300+K signing of the last 5+(?) years.

The White Sox have been unwilling to feel the wrath of the Winner's Curse by shelling out top dollar to the top free agents. There hasn't been a singing of a true top-level free-agent since Albert Belle almost 10 years ago. And I haven't even brought up the name Scott Boras yet.

This is a team which has continued to act like a mid-market club with the exception of it's willingness to hand out contracts to it's soon-to-be free-agents. You could make a very convincing argument that the White Sox would be a better club today if they had practiced more fiscal responsibility with their contract extensions, forcing them to part with some of their impending free-agents through trades for prospects or by accepting the two extra draft picks which come from losing a type-A free-agent.

Less than a year later, amid talk of trimming payroll, the Sox don't fit so cleanly under the mid-market umbrella. They've added Alexei Ramirez and (hopefully) Dayan Viciedo from Cuba; the latter to a reportedly record contract for a player his age. They've spent considerably over slot for Gordon Beckham and Jordan Danks. And, fingers crossed, should offer arbitration to their lone departing desirable free agent (Orlando Cabrera) by Monday, netting them 2 extra '09 draft picks.

Juan Uribe is a type B free agent, and could possibly net the Sox 1 compensation pick. There is, however, a considerable chance that he would accept arbitration, where he would be guaranteed at least 80% of his '08 salary. So the Sox will probably pass on that opportunity, with good reason.

Anyway, the point of the post--aside from giving you a new thread to CAP LOX in over the holiday--on the whole, even with the disastrous Swisher trades, the Sox organization is in a much better position today than they were a year ago following the winter meetings. That's something we can be thankful for.

White Sox Off-Season Goal Becoming Clear

2008-11-26T05:34:35Z

Kenny Williams likes to keep his cards close to his chest, so it's never easy to know what he's thinking, or in which direction he's looking to take the makeup of the club. Add the highly questionable Nick Swisher trade to Williams' unpredictability and it's easy to understand why we've been at a loss for words much of this early off-season. As Lincoln said, "better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt."

A few leaks seem to be springing up surrounding the Sox, however, leading us to be able to draw some conclusions about their off-season intent. The Daily Herald's Barry Rozner gets Kenny to comment on his intent to trim payroll, which, if past quotes are to believed, wasn't maxed out in the past few seasons.

"First of all, it's a continuation of a plan to get younger that started two years ago," Williams said Monday from Arizona. "But secondly, this was going to be needed anyway as a result of the economy.

"We can't hide from it. At the end of the day, the bottom line is you can't spend a dollar if you only have 75 cents, and we're talking about millions here.

Leaving aside Williams' tried-and-true 50 cents statement--Now with 50% more quarters! Adjusted for inflation!--it seems clear that the Sox are looking at some belt-tightening moves this off-season. We've seen multiple headlines on ChiSox.com with the words "Youth" and "Movement" displayed in succession. At first, I thought it was just Merkin looking to fill space around some Chris Getz quotes at Halloween, but now he's also got some Ozzie Guillen quotes nearly a month later. Clearly, this story isn't going away. That means Jermaine Dye and/or Javier Vazquez are gone in addition to letting free agents Joe Crede, Juan Uribe and Orlando Cabrera walk.

Dye has already been connected to the Braves (among others), and Tuesday brought news that the White Sox have shopped him to the Reds as well. Their reported price of Homer Bailey plus something else meshes with Ken Rosenthal's statement that some teams (Mets, Phillies and Rays to be specific) are balking at the price.

I had to laugh at the off-the-record quote Rosenthal got from "one potentially interested executive."

[H]is team was concerned that Dye batted only .210 with runners in scoring position and two outs last season — 36 points below the American League average.

Which is about as relevant as complaining about Dye's shoe size--He needs big shoes!--and ignores a real issue; Dye might be the worst defensive RFer in baseball. It's OK though, with quotes like that, potentially interested executive might have well outed himself as the dumbest exec in baseball. His identity should be revealed when Juan Uribe is signed as a starting shortstop based on his .338 average w/RISP--92 points above league average!

Anyway, it appears the Sox plan is to use Dye, Vazquez, and maybe Bobby Jenks to acquire some more young pitching--hopefully better than Jeff Marquez--and, I assume, a true center fielder, where the word 'true' means fast.

Unfortunately for the Sox, Williams may have mistimed the market. The returns from the Swisher trade were, um, meager. Washignton got Josh Willingham and Scott Olson for a song. The Matt Holliday deal is the only one that seems like a proper return so far this off-season. Right now, it seems very much like a buyer's market, with teams overvaluing their own players and prospects, and choosing to wait out a cloudy free-agent picture.

The free agent market in particular has been unusually slow this year. Last year at this time we were getting daily updates on the Torii Hunter front, with the Angels swooping in as a surprise team and signing Hunter Thanksgiving weekend. They seem to be attempting to use that same attack on CC Sabathia this season, but otherwise no other big name free agents have drawn anything resembling a bidding war. I expect we'll see that at least until the winter meetings, and possibly as long as Christmas, a date by which many athletes (including Mark Teixeira) want to have their '09 plans solidified.

We may be in for a long, sometimes boring off-season, but for the first time since the Swisher trade we might be able to say we have an idea which direction the Sox are headed, even if we don't agree with it.

Rinku and Dinesh Have a Blog

2008-11-25T05:22:24Z

Rinku and Dinesh Have a Blog

The two Indian pitchers who won the Million Dollar Arm contest and were recently signed by the Pirates have been blogging about their experiences in America. It's filled with gems, and is worth reading back through the archives to find anecdotes like this

Tonight we were celebrating the Halloween Holiday here in America. we are not sure what the holiday comes from, but kids dress up in all kinds of crazy outfits and then go to houses asking for sweets. if people in the house no give the sweets then the kids put toilet paper in their trees.

We went with JB sir to breakfast at a great American breakfast eatery called Dennys. Rinku ordered a breakfast aclled the Lumberjack. We now know that a Lumberjack is a person who works as a tree cutter in the forrest so they must eat a lot of food. this breakfast was quite huge. It had eggs, bacon, sausage, ham, potatos, breads, and pancakes. I had French Toast and both meals were very fulfilling.

More Viciedo Thoughts

2008-11-24T05:43:46Z

He's still not officially signed, but he's the only news we've got right now. So, we'll keep on talkin' 'bout him.

Jeff Passan points out that the White Sox weren't the highest bidder for Viciedo.

Chicago’s willingness to put Viciedo in an open competition pushed them past three other teams, Torres said, one of which was offering more than $11 million. Viciedo’s familiarity with Ramirez, as well as the presence of Cuban Jose Contreras, helped sway him toward the White Sox.

He also confirms my assertion that the contract was historically rich for a player of Viciedo's age.

I haven't been able to put together an easy-to-read collection of his Cuban stats in part because my DNS won't allow me to access the Cuban sites that Wiz first linked when we learned that Viciedo was a free agent, and the stats that we do have don't seem to add up to his career numbers. Chris DeLuca says he hit .294/.403/.503 last year in the Cuban League.

Somewhere on the internets, and don't remember where anymore, and I hope I'm not making this up, I read that Phil Rogers would have ranked Viciedo behind only Beckham among the Sox top prospects and is the equivalent of another high first-round pick.

What Do We Know About the Impending Viciedo Signing?

2008-11-21T05:17:20Z

Dayan Viciedo was supposed to be introduced as the newest member of the White Sox in a press conference on Friday, but apparently visa issues--there's always visa issues--may have derailed the event, though not the signing itself. The terms of the contract are as of yet unknown, but Phil Rogers put us in the $11M ballpark and you guys keep talking about 4-5 years (though I'm unsure where that info originated).

Until Viciedo is officially signed and plays a few spring training games all we'll be able to do is speculate on his ability. Personally, I think the notion that he'll compete for a job as the starting 3B this year is laughable, but I also thought that Alexei Ramirez should have gone to the minors out of camp last spring and thought he would probably end up in AA when the Sox signed him just before Christmas. So what do I know?

What does Viciedo's contract tell us?

There aren't many comparables for Vicideo's contract or the situation which allowed him to become a 19-year old free agent. In the '96 draft, Scott Boras got a number of the draftees (including Sox first-rounder Bobby Seay) declared free agents after they were not tendered a contract offer within two weeks of the draft, which resulted in a number of ridiculous contracts, most notably Matt White's $10+M deal. More recently Boras tried to get Landon Powell declared a free agent when he completed his GED before he started his senior season of HS. But the best comparison has to be Kendry Morales, who like Viciedo defected Cuba and incited a bidding war as a free agent, ultimately settling for the following contract.

Kendry Morales

6 years/$4.5M (2005-10)

signed by Angels as a free agent from Cuba (via the Dominican Republic) 12/04

$3M signing bonus

05:$0.316M, 06:$0.35M, 07:$0.4M, 08:$0.5M, 09:$0.6M, 10:$0.7M

minor-league salaries: o5:$0.1M, 06:$0.15M, 07:$0.2M, 08:$0.3M, 09:$0.35M, 10:$0.4M

with 3 years of Major League service, may void remaining years of deal and go to arbitration

total value may reach $10M with bonuses

signed as a free agent from Cuba (via the Dominican Republic) 12/04

agents: David Valdes, John Mano

I recalled the deal being reported as a $10M deal back then, but I now see that it's a well constructed split contract which is fair to both sides. (I hope the Sox are able to set up a similar mutually beneficial contract.) Morales is without question the best comp we have for Viciedo right now. Since being considered on the top prospects in all of baseball, his stock has fallen to that of a AAAA player; a guy who has crushed minor league pitching in favorable hitter's leagues who doesn't seem to possess either the plate discipline or power to merit an everyday spot in a major league lineup.

I'm interested to see the terms of the contract before I make any judgments, but I would think (without actually doing the proper research) that the reported $11M would be the most expensive major or minor league contract handed out to a player of Viciedo's age. It's a huge deal, but as was seen in '96, being a free agent inflates the value of the contracts offered. For some more timely perspective, it was speculated that Pedro Alvarez might receive a deal from $15M to upwards of $20M at free agency during the few days when it was speculated that might be declared a free agent.

When I say it's a huge deal, it's because $11M doesn't really represent any real cost savings over a first-rounder. Take the recently exported Nick Swisher, for example. He was drafted by Oakland in '02 at age 21 and signed for a $1.78M bonus. He spent all of '03 and most of '04 in the minors, drawing a small salary, before making the minor league minimum plus a small raise each of his first three seasons. He signed his current contract during the middle of his third pre-arbitration year, raising his salary to a pro-rated portion of $700K for the remainder of that season. Add in his $3.5M he made in the first full year of the contract, and Swisher has made something in the area of $6.7M in his 6+ years as a professional.

To use the most dynamic young third baseman in the league as an example, Evan Longoria got a $3M signing bonus out of college, spent a full season in the minors and played only 6 games in the majors before signing his current deal. That deal combined with his signing bonus has him making a conveniently comparable $11M in his first 5 years in the majors.

If the $11M figure is to be believed, along with it being a guaranteed major-league deal, the Sox won't really experience any savings from the deal unless Viciedo quickly makes the majors and quickly proves to be worth a huge deal like Longoria.

What does a major league deal mean?

More than anything, Viciedo signing a major league deal will effect his option status. Players on a major league contract are required to be on the 40-man roster, and as such have to optioned to the minor leagues once a year if they don't make the big league club. Thankfully, Viciedo should get the benefit of receiving a 4th option year, so it shouldn't affect the Sox too greatly. With all the hype some have heaped on Viciedo already, if he isn't contributing by the 4th year of his contract (when he'll be just 23 years old, mind you), he'll already have been labeled a Borchard-like bust.

So, is this a good signing?

The truth is, I don't know. The Sox didn't sign Viciedo looking to lock up some talent for a below market value. They signed him (or rather will sign him) to add more talent to their system. Period. The major league contract and the limitations that such a contract brings would seem to indicate their faith in Viciedo's talent, but the contract's overall value means Viciedo has to produce and produce relatively quickly to justify such a price. It's a substantially riskier signing than your average top prospect.

Note to Rogers, Merkin, Gonzo, and Cowley: If the deal is for the rumored less than 6 years, or even if it is, please ask if there is a free-agency-inducing clause at the end of the contract like Contreras and Iguchi had. For those that don't understand why such a question is important: If there's no such out clause, the Sox can take Viciedo to arbitration, if, after his contract has expired, he has not reached 6 years of major league serive.

Poll

Where does Viciedo start his US professional career?

Here's Your Dayan Viciedo News: White Sox to Sign Dayan Viciedo

2008-11-20T23:35:54Z

Here's Your Dayan Viciedo News: White Sox to Sign Dayan Viciedo

According to major-league sources, the Sox have reached an agreement with 19-year-old third baseman Dayan Viciedo, who was declared a free agent a week ago.

Viciedo reportedly will receive a major-league contract worth about $11 million. That’s more than twice the size of the deal that brought Alexei Ramirez to the White Sox last season, and Ramirez was second in American League Rookie of the Year voting last season.

Where Do We Go From Here?

2008-11-20T19:25:38Z

I never got around to posting a South Side Sox Official Off-Season Plan this year mainly for two reasons. One, I couldn't really see the White Sox being players in the free agent market. And Two, any plan I would have come up with simply would have been a collection of guidelines on what not to do.

It almost goes without saying that trading Nick Swisher would have violated our rule #1, Don't Sell Low on Swisher/Konerko/Vazquez.

I'm appalled by the reasoning used by some to defend the Swisher deal; the idea that Kenny Williams (and his scouts) have come out on top of other deals so we should just assume that they'll eventually end up smelling like roses on this one, the idea that Jeff Marquez is two bullpen sessions and a Don Cooper cutter away from turning into a mid-rotation starter. It requires a dizzying form of circular logic which I (thankfully) lack.

Maybe Marquez gives the Sox years of league average work from the rotation all for a below market price tag. Maybe Wilson Betemit takes over at third base full time. Maybe Jhonny Nunez becomes an integral part of the Sox bullpen. But none of that will change the fact that the Sox turned 3 of their top 5 prospects in '07 into two years of a below average defensive utility man with an OBP below .300 in the AL and two prospects who couldn't crack the Sox current top 10 (according to Baseball America). The Sox return for Swisher, and thus the '07 prospects, was inadequate. Period.

If Williams and company were as smart as some are making him out to be, then they should have been able to pry away the utility player and two mid-to-low level prospects for similar package of scraps, but scraps the super-smart Sox scouting staff was positive wouldn't amount to anything in the future. The Sox get their guys and still have Swisher, who can be held onto, or, with patience, dealt for a more palatable higher-upside return.

Back to the point, though I suspect that ripping on the Swisher deal will become a recurring theme around here, what happens now that the Sox have dispatched The Awesome? Jim asks essentially the same question, though he wants to know what happens to The Swagger.

* * * * *

With the acquisition of Betemit, the White Sox entire infield appears set. Konerko will hold down first, obviously, and Ramirez has been handed the shortstop job. That leaves four players (Chris Getz, Jayson Nix, Betemit, and Josh Fields) to compete for (probably) 3 spots; though Betemit is assured of a job, his role is undetermined. As I see it right now, Betemit will be the primary back-up at every infield position, with the opportunity to beat out Josh Fields and play everyday at 3B. Getz has the inside track to the 2B job, where the loser figures to be sent to the minors.

The Betemit acquisition has all but ended Juan Uribe's career on the south side, and although a similar move has yet to be made at back-up catcher with each passing day it appears more likely to be Cole Armstrong's job. Initially, I didn't think the Sox buyout of Toby Hall meant anything more than they didn't want to pay him $2+M for his pieing capabilities, but after the Swisher trade I think the Sox might be looking to purge a large part of their non-Pierzynski goofball demographic. Armstrong appears to be a late bloomer, and impressed in the Arizona Fall League, hitting 7 homers and nearly matching his '08 regular season total.

But Armstrong is a left-handed hitter who posted a .290 OBP against LHP in the minors and has not displayed any patience at the plate. He hardly seems like a compliment to Pierzynski's skill set. But unless the Sox can get Henry Blanco to sign a 1-year deal on the cheap, the job appears to be Armstrong's.

Swisher's departure is felt most in the outfield, where the Sox hope to deploy a true center fielder next year. Right now, that would probably mean Jerry Owens (whose groin was the Sox '08 MVP). Thankfully we've got a few months before spring training opens. Carlos Quentin isn't going anywhere, and the Swisher trade makes a Jermaine Dye deal seem much more unlikely. Unless the Sox make an unexpected splash at free agency, or ship out a valuable arm for an outfielder, any deal that included Dye would have to bring an outfielder in return, and thus wouldn't make much sense for either party.

In the rotation, Javier Vazquez seems like the only player with a chance to change uniforms. Plenty of teams might be interested, but a market won't develop until after CC Sabathia, Derek Lowe, AJ Burnett, and Jake Peavy have all found new homes. Bobby Jenks may represent Williams most valuable trade chit, but the Mets have backed off interest citing his declining strikeout rate; and like the Vazquez situation, most teams will want to wait until the top free agent options (Fuentes and K-Rod) have been exhausted).

All of which is a way of me saying, I'm bored and had to write something, why not a little stream-of-consciousness on the Sox situation?

And... Where the heck is the Dayan Viciedo News?

He was supposed to be signed last weekend, for sure by Monday. But here it is Thursday, and I haven't seen anything about his workouts--not a single leak hit a major newspaper--or any real updates on the teams interested in pursuing him. The most recent thing I can find is a blurb from the East Valley Tribune (AZ) which states "some believe he will get a contract similar to the four-year, $4.75 million deal [Alexei] Ramirez signed last year." But even that seems more like a guess than an informed opinion.

Kenny's secret plan: CC!

2008-11-20T00:32:52Z

Kenny's secret plan: CC!

"The White Sox are seeking a few smart moves that will lighten their payroll, perhaps allowing them to afford Sabathia."

How Much Does It Cost To Escape Tucson?

2008-11-18T04:51:42Z

The answer is $5M, apparently.

Mark Gonzales is reporting that a deal could be announced by as soon as Tuesday night, which just so happens to match the reports from our embedded SSSer Hoytsstach.

Was having a beer at a bar here in Phoenix. A guy came up to me, saw my Sox hat, said he’s been workin on the move from Tuscon, should be announced tomorrow night. By the way, he bought me a beer cuz of the hat, as if you wanted to know.

Beer tastes good.

We're going to call this one. The always reliable Phoenix area bar exit polls indicate that the White Sox are moving to Glendale.