Vazquez rumors gain steam, now include El Duque

by The Cheat on Dec 13, 2005 11:55 PM CST in News Comment 31 comments

The World Series champion Chicago White Sox are on the verge of acquiring starting pitcher Javier Vazquez from Arizona for pitcher Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez, a minor-league outfielder expected to be Chris Young and another pitcher, believed to be a reliever, according to CBS SportsLine.com sources.

I don't know what to make of this.

It gives us 6 starting pitchers
Who goes to the pen?
If it's Contreras, why not make him the closer?
Why limit Contreras' innings like that?
Whither young McCarthy?

Whatever the answer is, this is would be a move not just for '06, but for '07 and beyond too. In one of those rarely heard of clauses, because Vazquez demanded a trade, he wouldn't be a free agent at the end of his deal.

The White Sox actually would control Vazquez for three years. Since he demanded a trade, he gave up the right to be a free agent after his contract expires, so they would be able to offer him arbitration for the third year.

I admire Williams' for recognizing he was likely to lose 40% of his rotation following '06, and being proactive in finding someone to take their place. But... I think we have to reserve judgement on this one until they break camp and all of the roster questions have been answered.

They always say you can never have too much pitching, right?

MLB.com says that this looks like a done deal. They just don't have a full story up yet. It even suggests this may be something of a bargaining chip RE: Garland and Contreras contract negotiations.

"They will know when it's time to get serious," said Williams, when asked about the timetable his pitchers were working with in regard to deciding on the team's contract offers. Williams paused, before adding directly, "By the way, it's probably time for them to get serious."

Williams appears to want his entire rotation under control through the '07 season, and whoever signs first (Contreras or Garland) will be the one to stay. Or I could be reading into that the wrong way. -- There are so many ways this thing could break. I honeslty have no idea which way he's going.

Update [2005-12-14 3:33:29 by The Cheat]: Newday's Jon Heyman, who's been breaking all of the stories this off-season, reports that Vizcaino is the nameless reliever and the Sox recieve cash.

In return for Vazquez and money, the White Sox are sending former Yankee Orlando Hernandez, righthanded reliever Luis Vizcaino and outfield prospect Chris Young.

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I don't like this deal

1.) The loss of Chris Young
2.) Bumping McCarthy out of the rotation

and the following questions.
1.) Does AZ pick up any of Vazquez's salary?
2.) Will Garland be traded? for who?

AIM: shaftr01

blog

by shaftr on Dec 14, 2005 12:07 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I don't like it either...

...for all the reasons you mention, plus the fact that I don't think Vazquez is a very good pitcher anymore. Especially not at 12M a year.

Also, who is the reliever. I read earlier on an AZ board that the DBacks wanted Cotts. That would be bad, but if AZ is going to take Hernandez, I find it believable.

by hitlesswonder on Dec 14, 2005 12:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

new mlb.com article

doesn't mention any reliever, calling the deal hernandez/young forvasquez. atho i'm sure the d-backs would love cotts, the fact that the d-backs are picking up no part of vasquez' salary-- AND APPEAR TO BE KEEPING THE YANKEES' YEARLY $3M CONTRIBUTION TO VASQUEZ' SALARY-- I don't believe they could possibly askfor another player.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20051214&content_id=1281727&vkey=hotstove 2005&fext=.jsp

AIM: ozspengler

by spengler on Dec 14, 2005 12:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That much money

means the Sox will be moving more salary. It ensures a trade of Garland or Contreras.

I hate losing Young. Sigh

by hitlesswonder on Dec 14, 2005 1:19 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh no

I don't like this one bit. Chris Young is going to be a 30/30 guy easily, and while acquiring Vazquez is intellegent from a contract standpoint, Vazquez is a flyball pitcher who will probably struggle at the Cell.

Don't do it Kenny!

by Tavarin on Dec 14, 2005 12:07 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting...

I personally think this trade would be a sign that Garland is going to get dealt. And if this trade, then a trade of Garland happens, that would leave a roation next year of....

Buehrle
Contreras
Garcia
Vasquez
McCarthy

Just gotta wait and see how this pans out I guess, as we also would have to see what we'd get for Garland. Very intersting, but if we went into next year with that rotation, I wouldn't mind.

by Idothis4 on Dec 14, 2005 12:22 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

KW is turning into Taz

Say what you will, but KW surely isn't resting on his laurels. He is remaking a team that just won the World Series pretty thoroughly. I have expressed skepticisim about all of the deals KW has made as they came through the wire, I think, instinctively, because you have to hesitate before taking a unit apart that just won it all. There was a diary lauding KW for his moxie and resolve. I have to admit that for all my skepticism, what the hell can you say? The 05 trophy is ours forever & KW is trying to vault the Sox into the permanent baseball big-market elite, a la Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers etc. There is a certain market calculus that goes into that, and you need big balls and a certain amount of luck to pulll it off. It certainly should be possible in Chicago...I digress.

It's strange, but earlier today as all the talk focused on Garland, I thought to myself: what if KW is able to pawn El Duque off on the D-Backs? I remember Hernandez fondly for his Houdini act against Boston and thought he might well be useful out of the bullpen and as an emotional stabilizer for Contreras. (Note: Rowand, who was close to Crede & AJ and a generally positive clubhouse force is already gone.)

If the starter we send is Hernandez rather than Garland, I'm not going to worry too much about Chris Young. He is still a young, unproven AA guy. He has a huge upside, but that is still just potential at this point. I am far more worried about the unnamed reliever mentioned as part of the deal. I hope Pollitte isn't part of the discussion.

As to your questions:

who goes to the pen? I think no one. There will be another deal made. If KW does hang on to all 6, then it will be McCarthy, as he is the youngest and owed the least respect.
why in the world would you send contreras to the pen? as of the 2nd half of 05, he is the best starter the sox have, the stopper. ozzie won't want him coming out of the pen.
see #3.
Whither McCarthy? Either starting or traded, although I think KW is going to unload on another trade here quickly. I think he has something in mind. It could be McCarthy, Garland or Vasquez himself, who the hell knows. (Speaking of surprising deals, how the f*** did Billy Beane take Ned Colletti's underwear off without him noticing it?)

I don't think I like replacing Garland with Vasquez. Garland throws heavy, groundball inducing stuff, perfect for the cell. vasquez serves flyballs. Don't you think Vasquez needs to go to Atlanta so he can be closer to Puerto Rico, say in exchange for, er, Jeff Francoeur? They need a starter or two, don't they?

AIM: ozspengler

by spengler on Dec 14, 2005 12:45 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Garland

Like everyone, sad to lose Young. But personally, I remember now that I was quite upset when KW traded Reed: I thought he was a top tier prospect (Baseball Prospectus sure agreed), and it wasn't worth half a season of Freddy. But hey, Reed seems pretty mediocre now and the Sox won the WS after resigning Freddy (given, they might have signed him anyway). Not saying Young is another Reed, but there seems to be a presumption he is definitely headed for an allstar 30-30 career amongst some of the posts. Not many guys actually do that.

Moreover, surely this won't mean Contreras to the pen - absolutely nonsensical - and hopefully means KW is going to move Garland; if he can get a nice haul (and the market is crazy for good young pitching right now: if the Marlins can get 2 top tier prospects for Beckett, Garland should land 1 at least), it would set us up well for the next few years. Garland, in my opinion, is about to be overpaid and overrated very soon.

I only hope he doesn't move the Count instead though.

by goldstone97 on Dec 14, 2005 1:38 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

genius!!!

picking up vasquez and dumping el duque is a smart move in my opinion. the sox wanted to get rid of the duke's 4.5 million dollar contract, and this move does exactly that. how else were they going to do it? the guy is like 500 years old, and this way, we don't lose any part of our existing rotation, in fact, we bolster it. as far as losing chris young goes, i don't watch AA baseball. do you? and yeah, maybe he will develop into a 30/30 guy, but right now he's most useful as solid-gold trade bait to kenny. i read some of the posts earlier regarding a possible garland+prospect for vasquez, and that would have been terrible for us since we would have lost a valuable piece of our rotation in the deal. but kenny was much smarter than that. he dangled the rookie(young) in front of arizona and his value alone was so great, that he even got them to take hernandez off our hands. i also read(on this site) that garland is surely gone if this trade gets done, and you may be right, but just imagine what he will fetch in return. our rotation with or without garland is now the best in baseball. yeah, i said it. i can't wait to see what will happen next. kenny, keep it up! and continue to mortgage the future! after all the future hasn't happened yet.

by redfather on Dec 14, 2005 1:42 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I like this move a lot

As much as losing Young hurts think about what this deal and the Thome deal are a sign of. The Sox are becoming major players for big names and showing they can spend money. I think even given the last two disappointing years Vazquez is still poised to be, not quite a top tier starter but a guy who is the caliber of the other pitchers in our rotation. Which is to say a guy who can be a #2 or #3 on a good team. Even through his struggles Vazquez has maintained some of the traits that good starters have. Namely durability and a very good K/BB ratio. I mean we're talking a guy with very good control, who also gets a lot of K's, his struggle in 'Zona was with the long ball but most of his career he did not allow a lot of home runs. Part of his ERA problems the last two years was playing in front of bad defenses.

This is a really great buy low move. If it means trading Garland or Contreras, so be it, I'd rather have Vazquez over the next 3 years than either of those two. Vazquez is much younger than the Count and more capable of being a dominant pitcher than Garland. I really really like Vazquez as a bounce back in '06 guy.

by The Underground Man on Dec 14, 2005 4:33 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

sox.com says...

it's a done deal, pending physicals

James

by james@lifeinthecell on Dec 14, 2005 5:51 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

6 starters

doesn't worry me that much. If one of the starters goes down with injuries, it's that much easier to pick up the slack. A big part of our success last year was the ability to just keep throwing good pitchers out there. And Hernandez is pretty clearly a five inning pitcher at best.
Can't say as to the prospects except to note that minor leaugers always look like potentitial HOFers and we know that that doesn't happen. Not that they're worthless, but we can't protect them at all costs.

-Peder

by Peder on Dec 14, 2005 7:43 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I thought about this for a few hours

And I am more okay with getting rid of Young than I thought I'd be. If there is one position that the club is deep at it is CF. I think now you move Garland for some youth and maybe a reliever. You HAVE to move Garland though. He is at peak value and you have 1 too many starting pitchers.

AIM: BrentBrookhouse

by Brent Brookhouse on Dec 14, 2005 8:37 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I really dont know what to think right now...

I like the additon of Vaz, but I think all these trades have to be looked at after every shakes out. There almost have to be more moves coming....

by Tony82087 on Dec 14, 2005 8:42 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I like Vazquez

Vazquez is poised for big things in 2006.

He was unlucky last year. The HRs are what killed his ERA. Of the flyballs he gave up, 16% went out of the park. That is very unlucky. The major league average is 10%, and he will likely regress to the mean.

His skills are reaching nice levels as his career is peaking. A strikeout rate in the 8's and a walk rate below 2. I like.

He is a low injury risk coming off 5 healthy years of ~200 IP.

Ron Shandler at BaseballHQ projects an upside of 18 wins and a 3.25 ERA. Sweet.

Throw in the fact that El Duque and Vizcaino are done, and this deal looks even better.

Now, I love Chris Young, and he could be puting up Maggliolian numbers in three year. But ONE year from now, we might be saying that Vazquez was the best pitching pick-up of the off-season.

by Tybor on Dec 14, 2005 8:48 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

This is huge

The reason this matters is not because of Vazquez but KW's brilliant quote at the end of the article. Who knows what will happen next, but it will be fun, and we'll have plenty to talk about until spring.

My dream: we somehow get Contreras and Garland to sign on the cheap, perhaps unbeknownst to each other in adjoining rooms at the same time, and then spin Vazquez onto somebody else. Hee hee.

by jimgstl on Dec 14, 2005 8:58 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

bullpen

trib agrees with most here that this deal would send mccarthy to the pen. i'm not sure i like that use of him, though i suppose limiting his innings at a young age isn't a bad thing.

But a Hernandez-and-Vizcaino-for-Vazquez deal would give the Sox a healthier rotation and would give 22-year-old Brandon McCarthy a role as long reliever unless the Sox elect to trade Contreras or Garland.

by goldstone97 on Dec 14, 2005 9:00 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Just more rumors

Suppossedly Levine has something to do with 'em -

Garland (or McCarthy) & Uribe to the Orioles for Tejada...

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/espn_report_diamondbacks_trade_vazque z_to_white_sox/#1776768
http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=63737

by hiphopnerd on Dec 14, 2005 9:43 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Wow, but it sounds right

KW knows he doesn't need 6 starters. Why does he obtain Vasquez? I said this before: he's gearing up for another trade and it will be soon.

Tejada would be a huge move. He'll be 30 next year, 3 yrs older than Uribe.

On a humorous note, I was already having the following nightmare: The Yankees sign Nomar to play 1st, and then make a deal for Tejada to play second, resulting in the following infield: Rodriguez, Jeter, Tejada, Garciaparra. KW should make this deal if only to prevent that.

AIM: ozspengler

by spengler on Dec 14, 2005 11:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I hate hate hate this trade

Chris Young...oh man, that hurts.

by the wolf on Dec 14, 2005 10:26 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Money Isssues

so are the yankees still paying for some of vazquez's salary? are the d-backs throwing in any additional salary relief for us?

can someone kindly post where our money is tied up for this year and possibly next so we can see where the payroll is going to be so i can figure out how manyt ickets i need to buy to keep this team solvent?

one last thing, albeit an old thing; thome has 2 years on his deal and i heard he also had a team option year worth 13 or 14 million. is this true? if so, the sox can keep the phillies' money and use him for two productive seasons and then cut him before the third and save a boatload of money. anyways, i'd appreciate some help here. thanks.

sue me, i like joe crede

by FAQ on Dec 14, 2005 10:45 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

as far as i know

the yankees gave $9m to the dbacks already, so we can't get that money. i read on one board that bud has to approve the deal, so that means $1m+ is changing hands. my feeling is the dbacks are throwing a couple of million our way, but nothing as substantial as the relief they got from the yankees to begin with.

i stand to be corrected by anyone who knows better, of course.

by goldstone97 on Dec 14, 2005 11:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Tejada

If KW can pull off Garland and Uribe for Tejada then this becomes Young, El Duque, Vizcaino Garland and Uribe for Vazquez, Tejada and cash. Pitching wise you've given up El Duque, Vizcaino and Garland for Vazquez (slight downgrade). Position player wise you've given Uribe and Young for Tejada (huge upgrade). Big win in that case.

We'll see. This first trade can only be evaluated in light of the next trade (whatever that winds up being). As it stands now I'm against it, but John Garland for 7 million on the trade market in an environment where Burnett gets 11 million a year is a very valuable chip.

by bhoov on Dec 14, 2005 10:46 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I like it so far, and I might end up loving it

Of course, nobody's happy about losing Chris Young, because it certainly seems like he'll be good. But every analysis I've seen of him compares him to Mike Cameron: mediocre average, good power, great defense, good speed, lots of strikeouts. I haven't seen comparisons to Magglio or Abreu or guys of that upper echelon. Which is not to say it's not possible, but only that it seems unreasonable to me to be too terribly upset about losing a prospect whose realistic major league projection is that of a career .783 OPS one-time All-Star.

Especially considering that in exchange for young, we were able to not only dump two unwanted contracts, but actually get a quality major league pitcher in return. Even more important than that is the subsequent trade this move implies. Considering KW traded Young already, it seems unlikely that in his next move (trading Garland, Contreras, Vazquez, or McCarthy), he'd be dealing for prospects in return. If he was a prospects guy, he would've held onto young. I suppose it's possible that he'd be interested in a stud corner infield prospect, considering the slow development of Josh Fields and the fact that Casey Rogowski is the Sox best 1B prospect and barely projects as a major league reserve. But knowing KW, I think he's looking for major league talent in return. I also think he (and Reinsdorf) know that the next couple of years are so critically important to the White Sox future, in terms of long term fan support and revenue generation, that it makes sense to "mortgage the future" by dealing prospects and go balls to the wall trying to win or at least reach another World Series in the next couple years.

So, all that said, I think these Tejada rumors are very realistic. And I imagine Abreu is another possibilty. Also, both Baltimore and Philadelphia are much closer to Puerto Rico than Chicago, so maybe Vazquez is just making a pitstop with the Sox.

by Ryno on Dec 14, 2005 11:21 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

tejada

it makes sense trade-wise - but how about financially? how could we afford it? i'm asking in earnest, if anyone has/will crunch the numbers.

by goldstone97 on Dec 14, 2005 11:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It doesn't look like that is going to matter

quite so much this off-season. It seems like KW and Reinsdorf have to decided to go for it, to make a move to put this franchise into the permanent big-time. I like the approach. As a fan, especially a fan of a franchise that has suffered as long as the White Sox, I don't think we can ask for much more than that. It doesn't look like KW has any kind of a hard cap to work with.

AIM: ozspengler

by spengler on Dec 14, 2005 11:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Payroll

Joel S. posted these numbers over at BTF and I calculated with trading Garland or mcCarthy for Tejada:

My numbers show the White Sox '06 payroll (post-Vazquez deal) at about $77 million, and that's with a number of arbitration cases still pending (Crede, AJ, Garland, Mackowiak, Harris). This assumes that the reports about the White Sox getting $5 million from Arizona are correct (I've assumed it's $2.5 million in '06 and $2.5 million in '07).

bhoov Posted: December 14, 2005 at 02:06 PM (#1777231)

By the way Joel the combination of Crede, AJ, Garland and Macko are gonna be at least $14 million. So the payroll will be around $90 million as we stand today. Adding Tejada and subtracting McCarthy and Uribe would put us at close to $100 million. Not gonna happen. Substituting Garland (7-8 million in arb) for McCarthy leaves the payroll around 92-93 million.

by bhoov on Dec 14, 2005 1:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I don't have the exact total salary numbers, but with the conflicting reports on the $$ coming the Sox way, it appears that this trade only adds about $1-3M in payroll.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Dec 14, 2005 1:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

A fine deal for '06, but

what happens after that? With El Duque gone, we can safely assume Contreras will depart as well. Garland will command stupid money and will likely leave too. So we then have to ask ourselves: are we ok with basically subbing Vasquez & McCarthy for Contreras & Garland in '07? I think in terms of raw talent we come out ahead there. Plus we get younger. Backfilling the bullpen is always a crapshoot, but I'm confident KW can add a couple of good vets. Two BIG (and not so far-fetched)potential downsides though:

Vasquez turns out to be a combination of James Baldwin & Jose DeLeon. You think I'm kidding?
Chris Young turns out to be Torii Hunter. You think I'm kidding?

We're sitting pretty for '06, but the jury will be out on this one for a long time.

Turning the Chicago Baseball Tide - One Championship at a Time

by WestSideSoxFan on Dec 14, 2005 11:53 AM CST reply actions 0 recs