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RRRR: Counting of the heads (Meet-up 2012)

As you may have read in the previous Rumpus Room, the date of this year's SSS meet-up is Saturday, May 26th.
Last year's meth-up was exceedingly fun because we were working with a day game and therefore had ample time for tomfoolery both before and after the game; so I was looking for an opportunity to do that again this year.

We're playing the Indians on the 26th, which will be the first time our outing has fallen on a non-NL opponent; let alone a division rival! But hopefully our combined forces will still be good for a Sox winner.

I'd like to get this ball rolling now so we can have a section booked and deposit down around the start of the season. Please use the comments to express interest if you are seriously planning to go.
Or if you'd like to go, but are tentative on whether arrangements will be possible for you to make it, please also indicate that in the comments. I'm just looking for a rough head-count for now.

Rumpus on, Right Rail.

358 comments  |  5 recs | 

2012 White Sox PECOTA

Oh boy... This looks bad... This year's PECOTA is out, and while I'm not a big fan of their projections (Last year they had Dunn going 0.248/0.371/0.51 with 38HR and 96RBI. I'd have given my left nut for him to actually do that.) people seem to live and die by them.

Their projections are considered by the industry to be the best in the business. So why not take a look see at what Baseball Prospectus's computers think our boys on the Soxside will do.

NAME POS PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Alexei Ramirez SS 698 81 27 2 18 79 43 89 12 7
Paul Konerko 1B 646 85 26 1 28 85 72 107 1 1
Alejandro De Aza LF 638 75 33 6 10 69 49 120 28 13
Adam Dunn 1B 601 79 22 1 30 77 94 174 1 1
Brent Morel 3B 584 65 27 2 13 64 29 94 11 5
Alex Rios CF 559 65 27 3 15 66 36 84 21 8
Gordon Beckham 2B 542 61 28 1 12 57 41 97 6 4
A.J. Pierzynski C 508 55 24 1 8 52 20 57 2 1
Dayan Viciedo RF 499 58 20 1 17 60 25 100 2 1
Brent Lillibridge LF 484 51 17 3 12 48 39 126 23 9
Dallas McPherson 3B 250 34 10 1 13 37 22 82 1 1
Ramon Castro C 250 34 9 0 12 35 22 60 1 0

NAME POS AVG OBP SLG BABIP WARP
Alexei Ramirez SS 0.274 0.318 0.407 0.289 3.3
Paul Konerko 1B 0.266 0.354 0.468 0.280 1.8
Alejandro De Aza LF 0.273 0.329 0.403 0.321 0.9
Adam Dunn 1B 0.232 0.357 0.460 0.286 2.5
Brent Morel 3B 0.264 0.301 0.391 0.294 1.0
Alex Rios CF 0.266 0.317 0.416 0.290 1.8
Gordon Beckham 2B 0.253 0.317 0.389 0.288 1.6
A.J. Pierzynski C 0.266 0.299 0.373 0.283 0.6
Dayan Viciedo RF 0.265 0.306 0.419 0.301 0.5
Brent Lillibridge LF 0.229 0.298 0.364 0.288 -0.1
Dallas McPherson 3B 0.232 0.302 0.452 0.297 1.6
Ramon Castro C 0.242 0.310 0.440 0.273 2.3

Name G GS IP W L SV ERA WHIP WARP
John Danks 31 31 195.3 11.3 14.2 0 3.89 1.3 3.1
Gavin Floyd 30 30 189.0 11 13.6 0 3.87 1.27 3.1
Philip Humber 28 28 168.0 9.2 13.8 0 4.53 1.39 1.5
Jake Peavy 24 24 144.0 8.7 10 0 3.46 1.24 3.2
Chris Sale 24 24 120.0 7.8 8.1 0 2.79 1.15 4.0
Zach Stewart 15 15 90.0 4.6 7.9 0 5.00 1.52 0.3
Matt Thornton 68 0 71.7 3.6 2.1 22 2.95 1.19 1.4
Jesse Crain 68 0 71.7 3.4 1.8 5 3.85 1.34 0.6
Addison Reed 68 0 71.7 3.5 2.1 13 3.18 1.2 1.2
Nestor Molina 10 10 60.0 3.2 5.1 0 4.71 1.44 0.4
Doug Davis 10 0 54.3 2.3 4.6 0 5.11 1.61 -0.2
Will Ohman 50 0 52.7 2.4 1.3 0 4.09 1.37 0.2

NAME H HR BB SO BB9 SO9 GB % BABIP
John Danks 192 22 61 152 2.8 7.0 43.3% 0.293
Gavin Floyd 185 22 55 144 2.6 6.9 44.2% 0.292
Philip Humber 177 23 56 109 3.0 5.8 41.7% 0.291
Jake Peavy 136 15 44 131 2.7 8.2 43.4% 0.299
Chris Sale 93 11 45 142 3.4 10.6 48.2% 0.287
Zach Stewart 103 11 34 60 3.4 6.0 48.0% 0.317
Matt Thornton 62 6 24 79 3.0 9.9 47.5% 0.304
Jesse Crain 65 8 31 65 3.9 8.1 41.7% 0.288
Addison Reed 61 7 26 83 3.2 10.4 40.8% 0.300
Nestor Molina 65 8 21 43 3.2 6.4 51.0% 0.306
Doug Davis 60 6 28 39 4.6 6.5 47.5% 0.316
Will Ohman 51 6 21 47 3.6 8.0 41.2% 0.299

Those are some numbers! But I think the most fun part of PECOTA is to look at the players they compare our boys to.

Player: Comparison

A.J. Pierzynski: Mike Lieberthal,Darrin Fletcher,Bengie Molina

Adam Dunn: Carlos Pena,Mark McGwire,Ken Phelps

Addison Reed: Sparky Lyle,Andrew Sisco,Dave Beard

Alejandro De Aza: David Murphy,Tito Francona,Ben Francisco

Alex Rios: Jerry Mumphrey,Vernon Wells,Eric Byrnes

Alexei Ramirez: Alan Trammell,Edgar Renteria,Jason Bartlett

Brent Lillibridge: Will Venable,Joe Lefebvre,Willie Crawford

Brent Morel: Andy Marte,Aramis Ramirez,Adrian Beltre

Chris Sale: Sparky Lyle,Andrew Sisco,Dave Beard

Dallas McPherson: Harmon Killebrew,Mike Schmidt,Mike Hessman

Dayan Viciedo: Jeff Francoeur,Ruben Sierra,Ellis Valentine

Doug Davis: Orlando Hernandez,Vic Raschi,Jose Contreras

Gavin Floyd: Roy Oswalt,John Lackey,Jack McDowell

Gordon Beckham: Danny Richar,Ian Kinsler,Jim Lefebvre

Jake Peavy: Ted Higuera,John Smoltz,John Lackey

Jesse Crain: Jeff Montgomery,Mike MacDougal,Juan Rincon

John Danks: Joe Saunders,Dallas Braden,Jon Matlack

Matt Thornton: Jim Brewer,Billy Wagner,Brian Fuentes

Nestor Molina: John Urrea,Bob Welch,David Palmer

Paul Konerko: Edgar Martinez,Rafael Palmeiro,Stan Musial

Philip Humber: Steve Rogers,John Burkett,Kevin Millwood

Ramon Castro: Roy Campanella,Carl Sawatski,Jason Varitek

Will Ohman: Willie Hernandez,Alberto Castillo,Mike Stanton

Zach Stewart: Jae Kuk Ryu,Don Gullett,Brian Kingman

Somethings that stand out to me.

1. PECOTA has never really liked Paulie, and that's pretty obvious. Granted he's considered our best hitter on this, his numbers drop 0.034/0.034/0.049 I've never understood why PECOTA doesn't like someone who's been fairly consistent throughout his career, but we all know that at 36 the drop off is going to come soon. I just hope he can hit his career .282/.358/.500 so we're competitive this year.

2. Dunn has a small regression to the mean. If he hits his PECOTA numbers he'll win comeback player of the year.

3. Gordan will either be Danny Richar or Ian Kinsler. For the life of me, I hope he's more Kinsler, but an average of the 2 would be nice. I honestly believe he may be more Richar the more and more I see of him.

4. Gavin is Roy Oswalt, John Lackey and Jack McDowell? At Gavin's age all 3 of those pitchers were coming off Top 5 finishes in the Cy Young award. Gavin on the other hand is coming off his worst year since becoming a full time starter. His numbers look eerily similar to Danks. I sure hope they look alike at the end of the season and Danks is playing up to his contract's expectation.

5. I really like Addison Reed's numbers and would love to see Thornton hit those numbers. The bullpen is rough overall, but there's 3 reliable guys based on the numbers (exactly what I think it's going to be at the beginning of the season)

6. Chris Sale for 2013 Cy Young.

7. I hate Rios, but if he puts up a positive WARP then my hate will be abated.

8. If Morel puts up Gold Glove defense, then I can survive with those numbers. If he puts up average defense, then he should be back in AAA.

9. Detroit has 2 guys who are going to put up 35 HR and 100 RBI. God help us.

Your take?

28 comments  |  6 recs | 

RRRR: Oscars, wild.

I'm a movie guy. If my living room will be glowing blue, I'd much rather see a feature-length than a TV show or video game. I don't get out to the cinema as often as I wish, but I try to at least stay on top of good recent movies. That being said, yes, it's not new, but I just watched In the Loop, a hilarious mostly-British satire about the decision to go to war. It involves individual characters woven together but competing for separate outcomes. It features witty, scathing, fast-paced dialogue. Power dynamics are frequently cast askew and re-thought. The characters, though seen at a glace, are exciting and eccentric, despite their unavoidable wretchedness. It's both poignant and ridiculous. Anyway, I found myself laughing out loud, literally, on many separate occasions while watching In the Loop. It's streaming on Netflix, so take a gander, eh?

So I guess the theme of this RRRR, to remove ourselves from the lard of the old, is movies. Specifically, if you could make everyone here at SSS sit down and watch a movie of your choosing, for whatever misunderstood reason, what would it be? A few of you know that I would automatically shout "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford!" Because that, too, is a good goddamned movie. Rounding it out to five, including the previous two mentioned, it would also include The Thin Red Line, Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang, and Deep Water. These isn't a best movie list, just movies that I absolutely love that I don't think too many people have seen. Or maybe I just find them outstanding and wish others appreciated them to the same degree. But, of course, when you over-hype something it gets brushed aside because, face it, people want to discover media items for themselves. Whatever that means.

So, share your hidden classics away. And, sure, include music and TV and the like.

844 comments  |  5 recs | 

Hitting Instruction

If this is not an appropriate post for the site, or appropriate location within it, just say the word, or can it, or whatever is necessary. I did some review of the standards, and it could go either way, but it's more on the topic of baseball than many others I've seen in this location. It may be of use to some others in the SSS community as well, so I figured I'd toss it out there. Also, I trust the audience here, more than other sites, to have significantly less bias than the others I've found. Here goes...

I'm in the process of teaching my seven-year-old son hitting. We've done this on and off for years, but with him starting coach-pitch instead of tee ball, I've been trying to get on a serious schedule with it, and along with that I don't want to screw up and have to undo something I've embedded in his brain, in a few years.

Continue reading this post »

21 comments  | 

Calling all new readers and lurkers: Open thread on Feb. 6

As we approach a new season, it's time to approach readers of South Side Sox who may not jump into the comments and say, "Why don't you like us?"

But seriously, I want to extend an invite to new readers and longtime lurkers to register an account if you haven't before, and log in if you have.

Why? Four reasons:

1) It's a lot easier to navigate the comments.

Even if you're more into reading than writing, navigating the site is a lot easier when logged in because of the enhanced commenting. New comments will load as they come in, you'll see which ones you haven't read yet, and you'll be able to skip to the newest comments with the "Z" key.

Continue reading this post »

198 comments  |  17 recs | 

High and Tight on the Mendoza Line

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No. A rare, abrasive, FOG dissipated in the Phoenix valley giving way to a cloudless sky. Parts of last year's model had been deteriorated and sloughed off. The incessant abrasion seems to have roughened the surface leaving gouges in places that never should have existed. Even the most jaded of sourpusses, witnessing the players pitch in the pasture, agree the plague on the house had been lifted and having him gone we have gained nothingness once again!

The void will fill with something else but in the exalted shutout of the present there are rejuvenating properties. The players take one crisp breath of air at a time; second by second they realize their existence and their purpose, which had been concealed from them the past several years. There is now room to stretch within the enthusiasm of a paradise regained. In order to find the respite of an earthly heaven, one sometimes has to trudge through a metaphorical hell.

The beast has been slain but he wrote a bestselling fiction with his two mouths. The one good thing about revisionist history is that you don't have to try to not repeat it because it never happened in the first place. The date-rapist can't harm you anymore, he's behind palm tree bars and he's off the streets. His threats against your family no longer merit any concern, he is gone forever…

"I know this is a lil' off-base but iss a whole 'nother ballgame Paul," breathed Gordon.

"It’s a whole 'nother ballgame within a ballgame, within a ballgame. Let's not forget that," hummed Konerko between a catch…and a throw.

"Shoeer Paul. I'm juss glad to be here playin' catch with 'bridge, that's all. I mean, I'm playing catch and that’s it, there's nothin' else 'cept the future. The lass few years I ben feelin' like I ben constantly missin' third base. Now it feels like I'm coverin' all bases no problem but I'm feelin' aimless like there ain't no direction."

"Gordon, breathe once will you? You smell that?"

"Huh, smell what?"

"Quit playing hardball, Gordon. The freshly cut grass, the oil on your glove, your uniform, Danks' chaw…its called freedom! You can breathe once again."

"I remember this feelin' back in Joejah, I think but I doan think its right, I'm a professional, I'm not supposed to feel free, he was doing right by me" quiet tears streaming down his face.

"Its called Stockholm Syndrome, you're expressing empathy for your captor and even defending him, you need to purge yourself of these demons. He can't hurt your OPS anymore."

Gordon begins to weep hysterically and Paul embraces him like a father figure, personalities DO exist on this team, "Let it all out Gordon, let it all out. There, there."

Lillibridge leans awkwardly, hand on hip, with an affectionate smirk on his sympathetic face. Suddenly, his body went rigid and he began looking over his shoulder but then reminded of the fresh calmness in the air. He relaxed his muscles and soaked in the moment. He couldn't help thinking about the present as it would have been in the past. This kind of display of affection would have frowned upon. In times gone by, affection and understanding were empty words with no action unless the action was to belittle or threaten in the future. There was no trust or collaboration once the lies were exposed and the mouth opened to say, "look at me." Maybe Jenks, Swisher and Javy didn't deserve it. As the first few sentences in this new chapter are written, the players actually have a say in what happens in the story or at least that is the current perception.

Robin, watching from the perch of his unicycle, wheels over to the scene. "What the hell do you guys think you are doing!?! This is a baseball field we're on here; do you not have any respect? This should be a group hug! Everyone dog pile!" As Robin reached the apex of his jump, eclipsing the morning sun in all its glory, all the players begin to realize Robin is actually serious about not being too serious. Slowly, players throw their hats and gloves into the air and start hooting and hollering and following Robin into the dog pile. The collective feeling of captivity that somehow oozed into Spring Training 2012 from the previous season began to dissipate in that 40-man dog pile. The energy and overall feeling of well-being and optimism became almost euphoric.

Deep in the depths of the dogpile, AJ army crawls through the mish-mash of bodies and thrashing limbs, stalking his way towards Rios like a pirate scaling a rope ladder with a knife in his mouth. He had received his directive and he aimed to accomplish it efficiently. AJ grabs Rios from behind and puts his right arm into an armlock, quickly he hyper-extends his elbow until it gives away, letting out an anguished pop. Rios screams and writhes in agony, not understanding how this could have heppenedhappened. Parent steps in, yelling at everyone to stop and brushes players off the pile like a normal human would brush dandruff off their shoulders.

"What is it Alex? A charley horse?" asks Robin, intentionally putting his foot in the bucket.

As the team settles down the euphoria still exists but there on the ground in short right field is poor Rios with his ulnar collateral ligament permanently disfigured. No one on the team enjoys seeing a teammate in excrutiating pain and everyone starts to feel a modicum of blame for the injury but in the recesses of their consciousness, each and every one of them breathes a sigh of relief. Herm drags Rios off the field as he whines like a little bitch and no one ever sees him again. He retires to his palatial estate in Puerto Rico with his moneys.

Later that night, Gordon, Robin, AJ and Paul sit at Don & Charlie's wolfing down the surf & turf over a couple bottles of Malbec with their wives.

"You guys hit the ball out of the park today, excellent execution as always, AJ. It was admittedly bush league but whatever, that sac of shit is filthy fucking rich...Paul...Gordon...I think you might have learned something from Oz after all. That acting job was of Golden Globe quality. Way to go to bat for the team, everyone thinks the injury came completely out of left field but in reality we were able to get Alex out of left field, thank Christ," quipped Robin, right off the bat.

"I'll take the award for Best Supporting Actor, chief," smiled Paul.

"I wuddnt actin' guys, those tears were fer real, boys. Let's get ur done this year, huh? It was my turn tuh step up to the plate for once, boys. Its time to spend all my time worrying about Gordon Beckham not some lunatic manager"

Paul puts a hand on Gordon's shoulder, patting it gently saying, "So far, you're batting 1.000 this year Gordon...you're batting 1.000. Looks like nice guys don't finish last after all."

34 comments  |  7 recs | 

Oswalt?



I recently read that Roy Oswalt turned down an offer of 5K to pitch for a year for the Cardinals. Is there a particular reason the WSox wouldn't be "in" for Roy at say 6-7K a year? With a club option?

Humber did not throw a full compliment of 200 innings last year, and Sale has only pitched in the high 130's split between College and Majors. I have already heard talk of limiting Sale's innings, and not sold on Humber for the year. Nor am I sold on Peavy lasting an entire year.

Thoughts?

22 comments  | 

RRRR: Dental dams and other reasons to kill people

I'm back from the dentist. Story of my life, I know!
Only there are no painkillers easing me into the mellow, uplifting, rumpusing mood that I had anticipated. Noooo, the dentist didn't bother sending me on my way with anything more than a couple Advils and some super helpful advice to ice my face. She even reiterated that it will hurt in the same breath that she denied the prescription.
Oh yes, it will hurt.

Devil woman!

Today was the first time they've successfully set up a dental dam in my mouth, much to my chagrin. Last time they attempted, the rubber bands snapped almost instantly and they ceased trying. I didn't see the point of one anyway and they seemed to manage just fine without it.

Today, they were adamant about the dental dam. As if six shots of Novocain (one directly to the nerve... /shudder) wasn't enough, they needed to attack my inner, not-numbed gums too, with these tight metal clamps that caused so much pressure and what I considered unnecessary additional pain. And no painkillers to be had! Did I mention that already?

I don't wish to start this RRRR down the awful path of a dental discussion because I fear that Buehrleman might never visit us again over here if I did. Nay, I'm more interested in what enrages you all most about your day-to-day, mundane, life comin'-atcha nonsense.

Because despite the severe dread in going to the dentist, I find myself commencing dentist visits with a smile. I'm my usual jovial self towards the dentist. I don't complain about pains or shots. I keep my shit together.

But by the second hour of bright lights and dental dams, I am frankly pissed. My blood's boiling. I don't exchange pleasantries on the way out. I leave there scowling. Or is that just my numb, droopy face...? Regardless, I feel in that moment like I've been violated somehow and I want to maim anyone who gets in my way. Like that guy whose knees I shattered in the parking garage today.
Yeah. Like that guy.

There are other examples of simple things that fire me up more than others. People who walk all shitty down the street, always obliviously wandering right where you're trying to step to get around them. The freight train stopping on the tracks... and then reversing... and stopping again. The people who know the lane is merging ahead, but ride the disappearing lane 'til the bitter end in traffic, which of course delays all the people abiding in the proper lane.

Alright. I need a drink and to skedaddle to bowling league now. What everyday bee-ess gets your goats the mosts?

830 comments  |  3 recs | 

RRRR: HSALTP! SL. SLTP!

Per Acting Lord of Rumpusing Rhubarb's suggestion, this Right Rail Rumpus Room's topic is excuses!
Your favorites used? Best you've heard?

Yeah, I got one for not being around here lately! Yeah, it may very well stink!

Crap, I know it does. But I'm still going to shove it under your noses because that's what we, as humans, feel compelled to do.

From what I understand, this is happening around many corporations nowadays; but I have recently become victim to a workplace environment transition. That's right, a WET.

Heh. They didn't really call it that. But they would have it didn't have a sort of double-entendre about it!
For real, the acronyms are way out of control in corporations. I'm sure some of you can relate. I'd even like to hear your favorites. I'll never forget the meeting in which I was informed that I was an SME (a "smee"). A Subject Matter Expert, to be precise. I would have loved to see the irritated yougottabefuckinkiddingme look on my face when that came onto the presentation slide a couple years ago. I refuse to use it.

Anyway, in this new workplace environment, I've been stripped of my unnecessarily big cubicle and high, privacy-permitting walls; and forced into an open, loving, intimate, can't even pick my nose atmosphere. And to make matters worse, my manager and director are now sitting directly in my back pocket. Facing my computer.

What am I supposed to do, SSSers? And more pressingly, what am I going to do when the season starts again!? I love my Thursday 11 AM games. For years, I've had full freedom to watch those games at work. And now? Now I'll have to work or something.

Sigh.

These are stressful questions on el dudette's brain here. In the meantime, I'm sorry for my negligence. If the Rumpus Room was a baby, it would be long dead in the bathtub by now.
I appreciate what has been done in my absence, by 'barb and CSR and the like. Thank you for rumpusing on. Excuses aside, I miss this place. I'd probably be coping through the off-season better if I was around more.

Alright, I'm going to post this to get up a new thread since it's getting into the evening in Chicago and I know it's snowing there and many of you will be around drinking from home. I still have a bit more work to do here before I'm into my Friday evening, but it's high time I fixed myself a gin anyway.

Been fun spending some time here this week while Seattle has treated me to snow and ice and then more snow. Thanks for entertaining the kitty.

986 comments  |  4 recs | 

My optimistically pessimistic 2012 White Sox Outlook

The pain and suffering that we as sox fans went through was flat out dreadful. I would have been more satisfied with them losing 100 games rather than them staying consistanly 4-6 games out of first place stringing us along, but i digress.....

Going into this Spring Training it is tough to feel overly excited about the club Robin Ventura will trot out on Opening Day. Without miracle comeback seasons from Peavy, Dunn, Rios, and Beckham then there is a diminutive chance this team can compete for the AL central crown. But we have all heard this same pessimism on multiple sites, radio shows, and in newspapers. I want to talk about how this team could have a rebound year like the Arizona Diamondbacks did under a similarly unexperienced manager in Kirk Gibson.

Beside the fact that it would be extremely hard to have as bad a year as Rios, Dunn, and Peavy, there are multiple reasons to believe this team could be improved this year in some areas. I can't help but smile when thinking about Dayan Viciedo swinging out of shoes and putting baseballs into orbit at the Cell. If healthy I would be shocked if he doesn't club at least 25-30 homers. Another reason to be excited is our young pitchers. Addison Reed looks like he could be a big time closer in the game for years. I believe that is why Kenny was so quick to pull the trigger on the Santos deal. Zach Stewart interests me as well because his fastball has a nice sink on it that plays well at the cell.

Trading Gavin Floyd could benefit the Sox greatly as well. I feel the team has plenty of pitching depth to be able to pull of a trade and I certainly wouldn't mind landing a nice 2nd base or CF prospect. Expect Tyler Kuhn to get some looks in the future as well after tearing up double a pitching last year at Birmingham. Axelrod Steward and Molina are all viable rotation options should Kenny decide to trade Floyd. I am extremely excited to see De Aza, Viciedo, Reed, Flowers, and Lillibridge all get considerably more playing time. This is the reason for my cautious optimism.

26 comments  | 


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