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Gavin Floyd

#34 / Pitcher / Chicago White Sox

6-5

230

R

R

Jan 26, 1983

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP
2008 - Gavin Floyd 3-2 7 7 0 0 0 0 43.1 29 19 16 5 20 19 3.32 1.13

Floyd Flops, Sox Drop

The White Sox had a pretty good opening series to their 10-game road trip, but a poor showing by nearly everyone on the team in an eminently winnable game turned what could have been a great start into just 'pretty good.'

Gavin Floyd was terrible. He might not have finished with the worst final pitching line of Sox starters on the young season, but he had the worst looking outing. He had nothing. According to Gameday, the fastball was a couple tics slower than his near no-no, and the control was nowhere to be found. I'm not willing to draw any conclusion from this outing other than he better pitch better next time out, but I'll definitely be watching his next start more closely.

Floyd had gone 12 consecutive starts without looking like doody. And if that's as often as we have to see the Philly Gavin, well, the Sox have found something better than a 5th starter.

Miguel Batista was just as bad as Floyd, but the Sox offense never made him pay for the parade of baserunners he allowed. They plated 2 against him in the first inning, but as became a theme for the game, they left a runner in scoring position. They had stranded 6 baserunners by the end of the 3rd inning, and 11 by the end of 6th, at which point the Sox offense called it a day. The M's bullpen shut the offense down to the tune of just 3 baserunners in 3+ innings, including one intentional walk.

All those wasted baserunners, the blown 2-0 early lead, the lack of an offensive attack against the M's bullpen combined to leave a sour taste in my mouth after what looked to be a possible sweep and a promising start to the road trip.

* * * * *

I'm already worried about Ehren Wassermann. The side-arming groundball machine has been unable to keep the ball down, and generally featured very poor control while pitching in place of the recently demoted Mike MacDougal. Maybe it's the curse of MacDougal, whomever replaces MacDougal on the roster is doomed to pitch just like him.

I was always a little bit concerned about the long-term viability of Wasserman's funky delivery and less than spectacular stuff. His recent troubles finding the sweet spot at the bottom of the zone only amplifies that concern.

73 comments | 0 recs

Who Finishes with the Lowest ERA?

I know it's not the best measure for a pitcher, but it is the simplest, most accessible.

I'm curious how you'll respond...

Poll
Who finishes with a lowest ERA?
  • Gavin Floyd
  • John Danks
  • Jose Contreras

  235 votes | Results

18 comments | 0 recs

I love baseball.

Just days ago, there was speculation from inside the White Sox clubhouse that Juan Uribe was a goner, a sacrificial lamb for the team-wide hitting slump and 6 game losing streak. Thursday he may have provided the spark to help lift the Sox out of their funk.

While Uribe's 2-run homer in the 5th inning put the Sox up for good, it was hit takeout slide of Brendan Harris in the 8th that really brought life to the dugout.

"Awesome," manager Ozzie Guillen said of Uribe's clean but ferocious slide. "I was the first one that jumped out of my seat.

"When somebody hits a home run, I just sit there and wait for the guy to shake his hand, unless it's to win the game. But when I see plays like that -- clean, play the game the way they should be playing -- it's something we're missing."

The first thing I noticed after Uribe bowled over Harris was the reception he received in the dugout. It was much more boisterous than the homecoming following his 2-run shot. It may have been a while since the Sox have seen a multi-run homer, but it's still something they're used to seeing. A well executed takeout slide, however, was something to be celebrated.

If the Sox are able to come out of their team-wide slump, you know that play will trotted out as the turning point. If the Sox bats head back into hibernation, if Uribe continues to hit below his weight, the simple fundamentally sound play will be forgotten as the calls for Jerry Owens crescendo. I'll stick with the view that it was a good play, and if the Sox get some more plays like that, and the properly executed run down, and, you know, some timely hitting they'll turn things back around.

* * * * *

I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't describe the bizarre circumstances surrounding Thome's first steal in a White Sox uniform. To set the stage, with nobody out in the Thome walked to advance Carlos Quentin to second and bring Paul Konerko to the plate. Konerko worked a 3-1 count, and was unable to check his swing on an inside fastball.

Home plate umpire Doug Eddings --It's always Doug Eddings-- was slow to call anything (sound familiar?). Konerko, hearing nothing, assumed it was ball four and began to take off his shin guard. At the same time Quentin and Thome began trotting towards the next base. Meanwhile, Joe Mauer started asking for help, inexplicably pointing to third base then finding the proper ump at first, who (correctly) called it a strike on a failed check swing. But by this time, Thome and Q were mere steps away from 2nd and 3rd, respectively, giving Mauer no play.

Mauer returned the ball to Matt Guerrier, who ran around the field tagging Thome and Quentin, who now stood safely 90 feet closer to home. Ron Gardenhire came out to argue Eddings' slow call on the play, and eventually got the boot. Meanwhile in the White Sox dugout, Ozzie yukked it up, pantomiming Guerrier looking for outs by tagging anyone within arms reach of him.

The Sox would not score in the inning. The smiles were removed from their faces... until that Uribe slide.

  • In a somewhat surprising twist, it seems the person most responsible for keeping Owens off the roster right now is Ozzie. This probably has more to do with Ozzie's inflated view of Alexei Ramirez more than anything else, but it's notable because it seems like Ozzie is always fighting to keep his bantam-weight speedsters on the roster.

  • Anecdotally, based solely on my own observation and without going through the game logs or Pitch F/X data, it feels like there is a (negative) correlation between the opposing starter's fastball velocity and their game ERA against the Sox. Put more simply, the Sox can't hit soft tossers. The harder you throw, the better they've hit you (at least since the Baltimore series). If anyone wanted to take the time to dive into the data, I'd be forever in your debt.

  • As if there wasn't enough misguided, tangentially White Sox related material floating through my inbox and feed reader with the manufactured outrage surrounding latex inflatables in a locker room in the news everywhere, Ozzie went on another one of his Ozzie being Ozzie rants where he says a whole lot of nothing, causing those who don't cover him every day to proclaim he's talking himself out of a job. We all know this is about as far from the truth as you can get, so I'll just continue to point out that the coaches and staff from the '05 World Series team have recurring contracts and Get Out of Jail Free cards that run through 2012.

171 comments | 0 recs

Gavin Floyd, Really?

Gavin Floyd once again flirted with a no-hitter Tuesday night to help the White Sox snap a 6-game losing streak. It was the third time this season that he's taken a no-hitter past the 5th inning.

How's he doing it?

Unfortunately, I have no idea. Before spring training, many of us were quite high on Floyd's future, based largely on the strength of his final 6 starts last season. During those 6 starts, Gavin laid a blue print for how he could become an effective major league pitcher. He fell behind John Danks, however, after a series of mediocre spring training performances. Here's what I had to say about Floyd in my season preview for The Hardball Times.

The final spot in the rotation will be filled by Floyd, about whom I could spout the same trivial anecdotes of increased confidence or new approaches, but my heart wouldn’t be in it. Floyd is what he is, a failed prospect who gives up far too many home runs to succeed in homer-friendly US Cellular Field. Gavin will have to succeed by keeping his walk total low, and keeping his strikeout total up. He’ll never be the pitcher the Phillies once thought he would be, but he could turn into a serviceable control-type back-end starter. His last six starts last season have given the Sox some (misplaced?) hope.

As you sit in front of your computer today, Floyd isn't exactly striking batters out (4.3 K/9) and is walking too many men (4.1 BB/9). He's been successful by keeping the ball in the park (.9 HR/9) and getting extraordinarily lucky on balls in play (.147 BABIP) or extraordinarily good defense behind him (.860 DER), depending on your view.

Rotoworld  pointed out, based on the above numbers, that now would be a good time to sell on Gavin Floyd. The Sox aren't playing fantasy baseball, however. This is the big leagues. You can't just trade a valuable young player because he has overachieved in the early season.

What can we expect for the rest of the season?

This is where things get tricky. I'd like to draw the comparison to '05 Jon Garland, who took a big step forward based in large part to a great first 8 starts. But Garland had better peripherals and a longer history of at least being average on his side. Floyd has never had any sustained success at the big league level.

At the time, I argued that Garland had reached a new level. I'm not so sure I can say the same of Floyd. So I'd like to point to our community projection for Floyd. My opinion of Floyd hasn't changed much from when we conducted this projection, I suspect most of yours haven't either. So let's see what happens when we simply add the projection, which was hedged by a few people projecting Gavin to flame out quickly, to Gavin's current line.


W-L G GS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP
2008 - Gavin Floyd 3-1 6 6 39.2 20 14 11 4 18 19 2.50 .96
Community Projection - 23 23 149.7 161 - 83* 23 51 123 4.98 1.35
Revised - 29 29 189 181 - 94 27 69 142 4.48 1.32

That's essentially the line which we came to expect from Jon Garland. He takes a little different route to get there, but the 4.48 ERA, which is above average given the run environment of USCF, the WHIP, the HR rate, are all quite similar to typical Garland.

I think most of us will take that.

* * * * *

Floyd wasn't the only young hurler in the White Sox organization who flirted with a no-hitter Tuesday. The Sox top 2007 draft pick, Aaron Poreda, took a no-hitter into the 6th inning, allowing one hit and one walk while striking out seven in 7 innings pitched.

209 comments | 0 recs

Quentin, Crede Come Through in the Clutch

This one had all the makings of the White Sox first 3-game losing streak of the season. Gavin Floyd had a third inning that evoked images of Javy's second inning earlier this week. He didn't seem to want anything to do with the strike zone, and would stake the Yankees to an early 3-0 lead. And then the rains came.

Thank god they came. For the series the White Sox seemed unable to push runs across against the Yankees starter, or the two aces at the end of the Yankees pen. But the rain knocked Yanks starter Phil Hughes out of the game, and gave the Sox offense a crack at the ass end of their bullpen.

Sure enough, the Sox rolled up another big inning, 5 runs in the 4th off Ross Ohlendorf (pronounced Nick Masset). It would have been 6 if not for a would-be Alexei Ramirez triple finding the right field seats resulting in a ground rule double and Carlos Quentin on 3rd base. The Gentleman Masher later added a Walloped Tater to finish the Sox scoring against the spare parts of the Yankee pen.

Floyd would take his lead and generally pitch well. But much like Javy on Wednesday, the Yankees mounted a lightning quick 2-out rally to cut the lead to one and make it a battle of the bullpens for the remaining 3 innings.

You can tell that Ozzie is still trying to get used to his new bullpen. I've yet to criticize Ozzie's bullpen usage this season in part for the same reason.

All other roles are up for grabs, and any move to call on the remaining 4 members can be called into question in a tight game. With the Yankees running out a predominantly left-handed lineup, Ozzie tried to steal an inning with Matt Thornton, but a 2-out single and a walk forced Ozzie to call on Linebrink with the right-handed Morgan Ensberg due up. You know how that worked out.

Ozzie then tried to get multiple innings out of Logan, in part because he breezed through his first inning of work and, as is becoming quite redundant, because the Yankees lineup is littered with lefties. But when Logan had trouble getting his second out in the 9th, Ozzie made the call for the big man, a move we've begged for constantly on this blog. Even DJ tried to convince Hawk why it's in the Sox best interest to have their best reliever on the mound in the highest leverage situation. He didn't put it like that, but at least he's trying.

Jenks coaxed a double play out of Jorge Posada, and looked like he would be available to go in the 10th. The two resident ManCrushes of this site had other ideas.

With one out and Joba Chamberlain locked on cruise control, Quentin, who was in the midst of a terrible night at the plate, battled to get a bit a hanger, which he was able to rope for a double off the left field wall. Four pitches later, Joe Crede, who you might have heard is clutch, buckled his knees and poked a flat 1-2 slider into center field for the game winning single.

I don't want to overstate the importance of a single game, but if that game ends in a loss the last week plus would have had a very 2007-like feel to it. Avoiding the sweep, putting up a fight even when the bullpen blows a lead; this is a different team. I can't say they're a great team, or even a team that will stick around for the rest of the season in the AL Central, but at least they're better, more entertaining, than last season.

203 comments | 0 recs

Wait, We Lost?

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It got that close.Bobby Jenks and the White Sox's win probability after retiring Ramon Hernandez was 94%.  With two strikes and no balls on Roberts, it had to be 99%.  Thanks to the magic of mlb.tv, there's going to be a recap and I've been watching the ninth so far.  Bobby has the stuff and the control, so I'm figuring this is going to end well right?

Not so much.  But again, Bobby got to 1-2 against Mora and made out pitches.  He nearly had Mora frozen on an 88 mph slider/cutter that was high according to the umpire and he busted him in earlier with a hard fastball that Mora sliced off defensively.  With the drama of the game gone since I knew the outcome, I just kept looking for what was missing this time and can't come up with anything.  The one pitch we didn't see is that 82-83 mph-er that falls straight down off the table, but I liked what I did see.  If by default every team wins and loses 50 games each, then we should drop this one in the Lose 50 bucket.

Gavin Floyd had another good outing, but at this point through three starts he has 10 K's to 8 BB's in 19.3 innings.  He's gotten a ridiculous .865 DER (league leader according to THT) and sports a .136 BABIP with an unsustainable low line drive rate and the same fly ball rate that has plagued him since coming here.  There's nothing there to suggest that he won't be reliant on the hope that all of these fly balls land in gloves and not seats.  More or less, he's the '07 version of what we saw, though I do think Coop is helping mechanically.  My dad leaned over last night while I was trying in vain to pick out some screen shots for Floyd's delivery and said, "He doesn't pitch the same way twice."  Grains of salt, sure, but suffice it to say it's an uphill battle.

Carlos Quentin, meanwhile, is making Kenny Williams looking like a genius.  He's batting .244/.370/.556 through 54 PAs.  His line drive rate is low and is suppressing his BABIP correspondingly, but all of the secondary indicators are in line.  He doesn't strike out much at all and while I doubt he'll keep up his .312 ISO, he's flashed power we didn't expect.  It's not easy to know exactly where he'll end up at the end of the year, but it's hard to keep from expecting good things.

And Carlos is one of those reasons this isn't '07, even if superficially all the elements were in place.  I know my real ball players from my Andy Gonzalezes and these guys pass the whiff test.  That said, it's also clear defense is going to be a major issue throughout the season.  The OC (don't call him that) made a nice throw from the hole for once, but I couldn't help wonder WWJUD on that grounder that Mora sent through the middle past Jenks and Cabrera.  Buehrle, Vazquez and Contreras all sport a DER substantially below .700 while Danks has a .741.  Outside of the four and five spots, the Sox defense has not been good for their starters.  Without a single strikeout pitcher on the staff save Javy, the long term outlook on the Sox' chances to keep runs from scoring looks bad.  That makes Cansequito all the more central to our slim but seemingly tangible post season possibility.

106 comments | 0 recs

Gavin Floyd Has The Tigers' Number

Gavin Floyd overcame some early-game shakiness to put together a nice outing Saturday, making a run at a no-hitter and eclipsing his 2007 win total in the process.

It looked like it was going to be a rough one for Floyd in the first inning. He walked The Unsinkable Clete Thomas after AJ Pierzynski dropped a 3-2 foul tip. Thomas would immediately steal second, and move into third on Placido Polanco's flyout. A nice pick and throw home from Joe Crede when Thomas went home on the contact play saved a run from blemishing Floyd's line. Carlos Quentin crashed into the outfield wall to catch a near-homer from Magglio Ordonez to close an eventful, unscored upon first.

The hard outs and walks would keep on coming through the first few innings. Nick Swisher made what is becoming his trademark defensive play, a basket catch on the warning track in the third, and Jermaine Dye had to run one down in the gap in the second. Floyd used double plays to wipe out walks in the third and fourth, so it's little wonder I hadn't realized he had a no-hitter working up to that point.

Floyd might not have known either.

He must have gotten a glimpse of the scoreboard as he took the mound in the fifth, because he started to put hitters away the rest of the game. There was one good drive by Pudge in the 5th, but other than that, the Tigers didn't mount much of anything against Floyd until Edgar Renteria's bloop single broke up the no-hitter in the 8th.

Floyd is now 3-0, with a 2.43 ERA in 37 innings against the Tigers. His two quality starts to begin the season give him 7 in his last 8 starts dating back to last season.

Scott Linebrink needed just two pitches to erase Renteria's single, recording the White Sox third double play turned of the game. Unofficially, as in I'm not sure this stat is 100% accurate, that gives them 19 on the year in 10 games. I tried querying Baseball-Reference's Play Index in every way I know how to find the Sox season record for DP's turned, but came up empty. Though I do agree with Larry, I remember it being from the 2000 team (189 is my guess). [Update by The Cheat, 04/12/08 6:21 PM CDT ]: Larry found the answer, 190 double plays turned in 2000.

Orlando Cabrera's solo homerun was the offense for most of game. But when Justin Verlander provided some free bases in the form of a walk and two HBPs in the 8th, the Sox demonstrated their renewed ability to break a game open. Pierzynski, Quentin, and Juan Uribe provided the two-out damage to turn a nail-biting pitcher's duel into a laugher, and the third time the Tigers have been shut out this season.

* * * * *

Jerry Owens is scheduled to begin his rehab stint tonight in Charlotte. I'm taking this as good news because Alexei Ramirez hasn't received a start since game 2 -- not that I'm complaining, but I'd rather see him getting regular work in Charlotte. And the quickest way to accomplish that feat is to have Owens taking his spot on the bench.

59 comments | 0 recs

Our Better Is Better Than The Tiger Bullpen

 

The Cheat is nowhere to be seen, so I figured I'd jump in with a recap of Saturday afternoon's game.

  • Gavin Floyd came up with a performance that will be totally acceptable out of the fifth starter's role for the rest of the year. While not looking great, he didn't look totally horrible. 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER is a performance that should be good enough to win most games. He got the lead late in the game and held it during his final inning. It seemed like Gavin occasionally ran into problems with two outs, but hopefully that will be something that disappears after getting comfortable.
  • Is there anyone more fun to watch in the lineup right now that Carlos Quentin? He's taking a starting spot and running away with it. I'm not sure which brought more joy to watch, his RBI single in the sixth inning or his absolute bullet from left field to nail a jogging Edgar Renteria trying to return to first base. Bad news for Jerry Owens supporters.
  • Dontrelle Willis couldn't find the plate with a plate-finding machine, and it finally cost him in the sixth inning. Nick Swisher picked up his third walk of the game (and his sixth in this last two games) to start off the action. He may be hitting .200 after five games, but the .478 on-base percentage sure looks sexy. Moreover, he hasn't looked totally overmatched in center.
  • After looking like secondhand horse poo in Spring Training, Jermaine Dye has been locked in to start the year, picking up his second home run in the eighth inning for that all important insurance run.
  • What's up with Orlando Cabrera in the field? He botched a cutoff throw early in the game that led to an early Tiger run, and he's just looked out of sorts at times. He's drawn some walks but hasn't looked much better at the plate either. Could we start seeing Juan Uribe and Alexei Ramirez starting at shortstop on occasion?
  • Toby Hall sucks. Good signing...in theory.
  • Boone Logan, Scott Linebrink, and Bobby Jenks. 3 IP, 0 R. Gave up three hits and Jenks was a little off in the ninth, but there's nothing to be worried about yet. Logan still looks good against lefties and Linebrink is still looking worth the money. Hard to say much after five games, but it's still a hell of a lot more encouraging to see them start out hot.

The Sox go for the sweep tomorrow night on ESPN2, as Mark Buehrle faces Justin Verlander on Sunday Night baseball. Smart money says that Mark won't be quite as bad as he was in Cleveland on Opening Day. We may even see Brian Anderson tomorrow as part of the Sunday Getaway Lineup®, since there are rumors around the Sox clubhouse that he does in fact exist.

 

107 comments | 0 recs

Rambling Before Opening Day

I was going to sit down and write a top 10 list -- Top 10 reasons to watch the White Sox this season, or something like that -- but it looks like Jim beat me to the punch with his 10 post-spring training concerns.

As I noted in the comments section over there, I would have added Bobby Jenks to the list. We spent much of our time prior to the '06 and '07 seasons discussing Jenks' lack of spring velocity and conditioning, only to have him come through with solid seasons even without the 100 MPH heater that he swears he still has. It's almost all superstition that has me wanting to add Jenks to the list, but there's a little bit of me who's worried about those poor spring peripherals.

Anyway, no Top 10 list for me. I'll just do some 14-hours until first pitch rambling and call it a post.

Ramblin' time

  • Let's start with optimism... With the exception of his penultimate spring outing, John Danks has taken a step forward. The cutter seems to have added the groundball to his skillset, and if he can throw strikes, he'll have a surprisingly good year. Surprising in that he beats all projections and ends up as an average or better pitcher.
  • The same goes for Jose Contreras. He's got more velocity than he's had since May '06. He's coming over the top more. His fastball seems to have more movement than it did last season. It just looks like he's returned to being an asset instead of a liability. I expect either he or Danks is going to have a very good year, a solid #3 type year, with the other falling into the solid #4 category of average innings eater.
  • With Buehrle and Vazquez as known quantities atop the rotation, that leaves Floyd, whose spring has caused me to lose some of my optimism. He had a much better spring than last year, and he doesn't seem to be afraid of the zone. But that still doesn't seem like enough to be anything more than below average starter who gets hit too much and gives up too many HRs. Of the three question marks in the rotation, Floyd seems the most likely disappoint.
  • Nick Swisher is leading off and playing left field (unless Ozzie changes his mind, again) against Cleveland Monday. Last year it was Pablo Ozuna. I'd say that's an upgrade.
  • I've got a bad feeling that Alexei Ramirez will have a .270 OBP after 120 at-bats before the Sox start to question their decision to bring him north.
  • I've got a worse feeling that those at-bats are going to come at the expense of Brian Anderson and Carlos Quentin, each of whom seem on the cusp of reaching their once highly regarded potential.
  • Charlotte has too many major league caliber players, which wouldn't be a problem if Chicago didn't have too few.
  • This post contained no mention of Nick Masset.

I could go on. And I probably will later. But we're a little more than 13 hours from first pitch, and I need some sleep. Go Sox!

51 comments | 0 recs

In which Cheat expresses mild disappointment

It would be easy to say that Gavin Floyd got rocked in his final spring training start of the year. I don't know what my reaction would have been had I been able to watch the game in a form other than MLB's Gameday. But I can say this for certain, if Gavin Floyd is going to have a successful season, he'll need a selective memory to forget the poor results of a day like Wednesday. Because, judging completely on box score alone -- a dangerous proposition, I know -- Floyd had the right approach against the Brewers; he threw strikes (0 BB), missed some bats (7 K), but found himself getting hit around as well (9 hits, 2HR).

I'd rather see a game in which Floyd gives up 6 runs while pounding the zone, than one in which he gives up the same 6 runs but does so by by falling behind, nibbling, and walking guys. I know there's no way the latter version has a chance to succeed for long at the major league level, while the former at least stands a puncher's chance.

* * * * *

As spring training opened, I wrote a piece entitled The 5 things I'm looking forward to this spring training. Looking back on that piece, it was a disappointing spring on a personal level. Of the 5 things I mentioned, two of them, the Joe Crede trade and "the 6th starter battle," were complete non-starters, while two others were mildly disappointing.

The Crede non-trade was the biggest cock tease of the spring. I went from calling it the most obvious trade ever to a sort of resigned apathy about him being on the roster over Josh Fields. The best thing I can say about it is that it at least we've been able to see the non-move coming. Jack Egbert's sore elbow to start the spring and Lance Broadway's general ineffectiveness made the 6th starter competition nonexistent unless you count Nick Masset who gets the start Thursday and inexplicably has yet to be put out to pasture.

I no longer even remember the first televised game of the spring, even though I listed that at #1. I was starved for baseball. But spring baseball, when everything is distorted and nothing counts, quickly became mundane. Carlos Quentin, who entered spring competing for the LF job, at least in my mind, nursed his sore shoulder for first couple of weeks, all but handing the job to Jerry Owens. While it's now Owens headed to the DL and Quentin has performed well since being proclaimed healthy, it still appears like he's behind at least one of Brian Anderson and Alexei Ramirez. I should be happy that he's going to be on the roster. But for a player who I once called the key to the Sox season, being on the roster just isn't enough.

The saving grace of the spring has been Ramirez, who took Ben Sheets deep for a grand slam and his second homer of the spring. However, Sheets was not exactly having a good day, also surrendering two homers to Jim Thome and another to AJ Pierzynski. And I'm still not sure that I would go north with Ramirez were I making the decisions.

Poll
Our Community Projection ERA for Gavin Floyd was 4.98. After Spring Training, revise your projection: over or under 4.98?
  • Over
  • Under

  293 votes | Results

64 comments | 0 recs


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