South Side Sox: FanPosts

subtleties of the game

2013-05-23T17:36:51Z

There's not a lot of scoring, nor many opportunities for compound fractures. So what is it about baseball that makes winter particularly cold and bitter? I'd like to hear your view of what makes baseball a great sport. Try diving in deep, beyond the "it is timeless" argument, although that certainly is an appealing aspect of the game. I'm looking for subtleties of the game. Imagine you could wipe the anti-baseball bias from the mind of your beloved friend or family member. What would you explain to them about these subtleties as you watched a game at the ballpark that would win them over to being a fan of baseball?

RRRR: 2013 SSS Outing - final post, time to send cashmoneys!

2013-05-17T16:27:49Z

Outing-goers, take heed!

If you appear on the list below, it is time for you to send money via paypal to subterraneanhsa@gmail.com - with your SSS identity and preferred email address included in the paypal note to me.

If your name is struck through, I've already received your payment and you are a special snowflake.

Our ragtag outing is nothing if not inconsistent. So true to form, we're doing things a bit differently this year in an effort to continuously improve and evolve the event.

- If you're planning on attending the tailgate, the total cost of your game ticket and food (to be provided) is $40.

- If you don't plan to attend the tailgate, the cost for game ticket-only is $25.

- If you're unsure about your tailgate involvement at this time, please send the $25 for now and plan to send another $15 if/when committed.

- And finally, if you're one of the folks who doesn't need a ticket to the game, but intends to be at the tailgate, send $15. (duhhh)

More details will follow in email form, but this may be the final RRRR post about the outing. So please take this opportunity to confirm your involvement (ahem, Steve_p and 815Sox) and make sure I have your email address for future communications.

Please email me directly with any exceptions, questions, concerns, ins, outs, whathaveyous. Thank you for the swift payments, as our debt must be paid by Memorial Day!

~~homesickalien~~
~~Jim Margalus~~
~~Trooper~~
~~Jack M~~
~~Grinder in Training~~
~~Rhubarb~~
~~oahu420~~
~~winningugly~~
~~a wife of wu~~
~~Papa Giorgio~~
~~LockportSox~~
~~OK daughter~~
~~Dr Emilio Lizardo~~
~~Scotty Ballgame~~
~~northsiderepresent~~
~~lastof12~~
lastof12 wife
pierzynskirules
~~HappyHuman~~
~~pnoles~~
moroots
klcahillane88
~~RWShow~~
~~Mark Primavera~~
thatshortkid
larry

billyok
slydernelson
gar ridge pride
The Cheat
Tdogg
South Side Expat

Lil Jimmy
egus
craigws
Kenwo

Outing-goers, take heed!

Our ragtag outing is nothing if not inconsistent. So true to form, we're doing things a bit differently this year in an effort to continuously improve and evolve the event.

- If you're planning on attending the tailgate, the total cost of your game ticket and food (to be provided) is $40.

- If you don't plan to attend the tailgate, the cost for game ticket-only is $25.

- If you're unsure about your tailgate involvement at this time, please send the $25 for now and plan to send another $15 if/when committed.

- And finally, if you're one of the folks who doesn't need a ticket to the game, but intends to be at the tailgate, send $15. (duhhh)

Please email me directly with any exceptions, questions, concerns, ins, outs, whathaveyous. Thank you for the swift payments, as our debt must be paid by Memorial Day!

billyok
slydernelson
gar ridge pride
The Cheat
Tdogg
South Side Expat

Lil Jimmy
egus
craigws
Kenwo

Phil Jackson: White Sox coach?

2013-05-17T00:03:54Z

The New York Times Magazine has a long profile of Phil Jackson's life now that he's no longer coaching. Apparently, he's restless.

Jeanie Buss, Jackson’s fiancée and the daughter of the Lakers’ recently deceased owner, Jerry Buss, thinks that Jackson is denying basketball something by staying away from it. He’s not so sure, but he has been meeting with N.B.A. owners about possible jobs. Nothing has grabbed him yet. He still texts and talks to players all the time. (In the middle of one of our conversations, the former Laker Luke Walton called to talk about his situation with his current team, the Cleveland Cavaliers.) Jackson has been serving as a kind of intersports guru, giving informal advice to an Israeli soccer coach — “All soccer involves triangles,” Jackson says — as well as to a couple of baseball managers. He grew up playing baseball and still thinks he would make a good coach. He has told the owner of the Chicago White Sox — his former boss with the Bulls, Jerry Reinsdorf — that he’s available. He seems to be only half joking.

The New York Times Magazine has a long profile of Phil Jackson's life now that he's no longer coaching. Apparently, he's restless.

Jeanie Buss, Jackson’s fiancée and the daughter of the Lakers’ recently deceased owner, Jerry Buss, thinks that Jackson is denying basketball something by staying away from it. He’s not so sure, but he has been meeting with N.B.A. owners about possible jobs. Nothing has grabbed him yet. He still texts and talks to players all the time. (In the middle of one of our conversations, the former Laker Luke Walton called to talk about his situation with his current team, the Cleveland Cavaliers.) Jackson has been serving as a kind of intersports guru, giving informal advice to an Israeli soccer coach — “All soccer involves triangles,” Jackson says — as well as to a couple of baseball managers. He grew up playing baseball and still thinks he would make a good coach. He has told the owner of the Chicago White Sox — his former boss with the Bulls, Jerry Reinsdorf — that he’s available. He seems to be only half joking.

Could Jackson provide a more balanced and effective offense? Could his injured body take 162 games in the dugout? I suppose Robin Ventura's recovery from ankle surgery is a hopeful sign, but Jackson needed an orthopedic chair in his last season with the Lakers. Precedent exists for using old Bulls staff. Jerry Krause worked for the Sox after the Wilder scandal.

The $7 ticket: An adventure to the far reaches of U.S. Cellular Field

2013-05-13T16:48:55Z

The way a stoner reacted to the Doritos Locos taco or old ladies to self-parallel parking cars is how my cheapass reacted when the White Sox announced they were selling upper reserved seats for $7. Now, I know those seats are located way up there [points to the heavens] and way over that way [makes a sweeping hand motion towards the horizon], but still, SEVEN DOLLARS. It used to take a half-price Monday game to get that price, now it’s every game*. And must I repeat, SEVEN DOLLARS! I just spent $9 on a strip of stamps.

*Well except for Cubs games. Always read the fine print

The upper deck at U.S. Cellular Field has always been sort of a funny thing. It has been discussed the same way people complain about pot holes to their city council. It’s so high. It’s dangerous. My kids are getting nosebleeds. I still remember a Greg Couch column from 2000 in the Sun-Times that addressed the nose bleeds at what was then Comiskey Park. Here’s a few excerpts:

Legs burning, head spinning, you are near the goal. Eighty-one, 82, 83, 84. Eighty-five steps, starting from the bottom of the upper deck, to reach the top row at Comiskey Park. The national anthem is sung on the field by what appears to be a small marble, though it is really a woman in an outfit with a wide stripe.

The game starts. You can't see the ball. You can't see the bat. "Don't worry," says Scott Fredericks, a fan in a White Sox jersey. "Your eyes adjust to it after 10 minutes."

The complaints about Comiskey Park never end. The upper deck is too high. There is no ambience in the entire place.

"Oxygen," said Ellen Ryan, sitting two rows down with husband Tom and son Sean. "It would be nice if they had oxygen. And I'm afraid of heights. "I told my son, `If you've got anything to say to God, say it now.' They should helicopter people in up here."

Word is, the deck has a 38-degree pitch, which creates the feeling that you are hovering or sitting on the edge of the Sears Tower.

It’s a bit dramatic, isn’t it? The crowd-search for the stupidest quote available has never been my journalistic cup of tea, yet, point being, when talking about an upper deck, the words “oxygen”, “helicopter”, and “Sears Tower” are never a good thing.

The fantastic Tommy Craggs said it much better in this piece he wrote for Deadspin:

U.S. Cellular Field is the hideous ransom paid to the White Sox after they spent the late 1980s threatening to hie themselves to St. Petersburg. This was deemed a fate too awful to imagine — the franchise had been in Chicago since 1901, after all — even though it's in the natural order of things for cranky 80-year-old nuisances to slink off to some godforsaken spot in South Florida where they can be safely ignored. In any event, the taxpayers gave the White Sox their lame Royals Stadium ripoff, the last ballpark built before the retro craze and certainly the last time anyone thought the Royals a franchise worth imitating. In fairness, the stadium did feature several design innovations, chief among them the decision to place the farthest reaches of the upper decks somewhere near Aurora. No one much liked the place, which is why it has been in a constant state of self-mutilation from the moment the Sox snipped the ribbon. A vast five-stage overhaul began in 2001, when the stadium was 10 — 10 — years old. The White Sox: baseball's cutters.

The upper deck at Comiskey became the whipping boy for all that was wrong about the new ballpark. With change comes an adjustment period, especially when the highest point of the upper deck at Old Comiskey was closer to the field than the lowest part of the upper deck at New Comiskey. That’s a silly type of change. And to be honest, it did get grotesquely steep at the top as if the grandstand was slowly succumbing to the sun’s gravitational pull. So naturally, in 2003, the White Sox renovated the hell out of the upper deck, sawing away the top eight rows and cropping it up with a nice overhead canopy, losing 6,000 seats in the process.

It should be mentioned, the upper deck wasn’t actually lowered, they just chopped off its big head to give the perception that the seats aren’t as crappy. And, for the most part, it has worked. Here’s a closer look at just how disgustingly horrific (read: not bad at all) the $7 seats are.

Height: After the renovations took 22 feet off the ballpark, the top seats now sit at a comfortable 126 feet, which is shorter than Soldier Field and half the fields in the MLB. Of note: that’s about 1/12th the size of Willis Tower.

Angle: 35 degrees. Doesn’t sound so bad, does it? It’s because it’s not. The steepness of the upper deck got fish-storied pretty good. Such is the nature with complaints; to feel validated you can never just bitch about one thing, you must bitch about everything. When you’re walking up the upper deck, you’re not scaling Mount Fucked Up Architecture, rather you are walking up a relatively flat set of stairs. Sorry to ruin the fun.

Distance: Some quick math: It’s 330 feet down the lines. Tack on another 100 feet or so for the distance the seats extend passed the field. So 430 feet long, 126 feet high, that means the farthest sitting person is about 450 feet away… Holy shit, that sounds bad. But if you think about it, that’s only 150 yards away, aka a short par 3. So have no fear, you’re still well within range to see Adam Dunn strikeout but far enough away to avoid seeing the dumbfounded look on his face afterwards.

Nosebleeds: Yeah…no.

I’ve always found it interesting the way the Sox have gone about setting ticket prices. In 2011, the Sox had the 4th highest average ticket price in all of baseball. That’s hard to fathom given the blue collar reputation of the fan base. After two straight years of large percent drops in ticket price, the Sox now sit below the league average in average ticket price. Ahh, that feels so much better.

It should also be mentioned that if you really want to get cheap tickets, just go on StubHub or some other third party market and scoop them up. But still, I think there’s something to be said for showing up at the ballpark and paying $7 at the gate. That’s less than most movie theatres. Bill Veeck would be proud.

So how are the upper reserved seats? For people like me who don’t like the cramped feeling of sitting in a hot sun surrounded by thousands of sweaty humans, the openness of these seats is quite satisfying. You can kinda see stuff. You’re in the shade, no rain, nice breeze. It’s nice. Plus you can always move down lower if you’d like, assuming you have even mediocre espionage skills.

So for an hour’s work at roughly minimum wage, you can get Paulie! and Thwack, cheer, fireworks and grilled onion aroma and Thunderstruck and summer air and aw shit, parking is still $20 and but that’s alright, just drink all the beer before you enter the ballpark to save money and fresh cut grass and Na-Na Hey-Hey Goodbye and approximately a 50-50 shot at a White Sox winner and the real small chance at witnessing one of those games and what once was and perhaps still is America’s Pastime. The $7 ticket. It’s an easy choice. You know what to do.

*Well except for Cubs games. Always read the fine print

Legs burning, head spinning, you are near the goal. Eighty-one, 82, 83, 84. Eighty-five steps, starting from the bottom of the upper deck, to reach the top row at Comiskey Park. The national anthem is sung on the field by what appears to be a small marble, though it is really a woman in an outfit with a wide stripe.

The game starts. You can't see the ball. You can't see the bat. "Don't worry," says Scott Fredericks, a fan in a White Sox jersey. "Your eyes adjust to it after 10 minutes."

The complaints about Comiskey Park never end. The upper deck is too high. There is no ambience in the entire place.

"Oxygen," said Ellen Ryan, sitting two rows down with husband Tom and son Sean. "It would be nice if they had oxygen. And I'm afraid of heights. "I told my son, `If you've got anything to say to God, say it now.' They should helicopter people in up here."

Word is, the deck has a 38-degree pitch, which creates the feeling that you are hovering or sitting on the edge of the Sears Tower.

The fantastic Tommy Craggs said it much better in this piece he wrote for Deadspin:

U.S. Cellular Field is the hideous ransom paid to the White Sox after they spent the late 1980s threatening to hie themselves to St. Petersburg. This was deemed a fate too awful to imagine — the franchise had been in Chicago since 1901, after all — even though it's in the natural order of things for cranky 80-year-old nuisances to slink off to some godforsaken spot in South Florida where they can be safely ignored. In any event, the taxpayers gave the White Sox their lame Royals Stadium ripoff, the last ballpark built before the retro craze and certainly the last time anyone thought the Royals a franchise worth imitating. In fairness, the stadium did feature several design innovations, chief among them the decision to place the farthest reaches of the upper decks somewhere near Aurora. No one much liked the place, which is why it has been in a constant state of self-mutilation from the moment the Sox snipped the ribbon. A vast five-stage overhaul began in 2001, when the stadium was 10 — 10 — years old. The White Sox: baseball's cutters.

Nosebleeds: Yeah…no.

RRRR: 2013 Outing - next steps!

2013-05-06T23:13:22Z

~ Friends of SSS ~

Below is the current roster of 2013 Outing attendees. The outing is on Saturday, June 29th vs. the Indians of Cleveland.

I'd like to get our section reserved by next Wednesday, May 15th, which will require that we have a near-solidified headcount and lotso money flowing into my Paypal account.
I don't know how much $ yet - so please do not send me any until I've confirmed. More details to follow, so please check back often!

If you expressed interest in the last thread, please review and confirm your name is on the list below.

If you haven't yet committed to the event and would like to join in the fun, please use the comments to express your interest and I'll add your name to the roster.

And finally, if you or your beloved plus-one's are noted below with a question mark, please confirm participation either way by this upcoming Sunday, 5/12.

Questions? Use the comments or email me directly!

homesickalien
craigws
Jim Margalus
Trooper
egus
Mark Primavera (no ticket needed)
Jack M
Kenwo
Grinder in Training
Rhubarb
Lil Jimmy
oahu420
winningugly
current wife of wu
Papa Giorgio
South Side Expat
thatshortkid (no ticket needed)
LockportSox
OK daughter
Kyle321N
Mrs. Kyle321N
northsiderepresent
lastof12
Mrs. lastof12
pierzynskirules
HappyHuman
Tdogg
pnoles
Steve_p (?)
Mrs. Steve_p (?)
billyok
815Sox (?)
slydernelson
larry
The Cheat
moroots
gar ridge pride
klcahillane88
RW Show

~ Friends of SSS ~

Below is the current roster of 2013 Outing attendees. The outing is on Saturday, June 29th vs. the Indians of Cleveland.

If you expressed interest in the last thread, please review and confirm your name is on the list below.

If you haven't yet committed to the event and would like to join in the fun, please use the comments to express your interest and I'll add your name to the roster.

And finally, if you or your beloved plus-one's are noted below with a question mark, please confirm participation either way by this upcoming Sunday, 5/12.

Questions? Use the comments or email me directly!

Trends in 10

2013-05-05T14:53:46Z

Offensive trends in the last 10 games April 22nd - May 4th

Alejandro De Aza (10 Games) - 42 PA | 38 AB | 6 Runs | 10 Hits | 3 XBH | 1 HR | 2 RBI | 4 BB | 13 K's

.263 BA | .333 | .728

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jeff Keppinger (6 Games) - 25 PA | 25 AB | 2 Runs| 7 Hits | 1 XBH | 0 HR | 2 RBI | 0 BB | 3 K's

.280 BA | .280 | .600

Tyler Greene (4 Games) - 18 PA | 16 AB | 3 Runs | 4 Hits | 2 XBH | 1 HR | 2 RBI | 2 BB | 9 K's

.250 BA | .333 | .896

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2B (10 games) - 43 PA | 41 AB | 5 Runs | 11 Hits | 3 XBH | 1 HR | 4 RBI | 2 BB | 12 K's

.268 BA | .302 | .717

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Alex Rios (10 games) - 43 PA | 39 AB | 6 Runs | 6 hits | 1 XBH | 1 HR | 4 RBI | 4 BB | 7 K's

.154 BA | .256 | .487

Adam Dunn (10 games) - 42 PA | 33 AB | 4 Runs | 7 hits | 4 XBH | 3 HR | 6 RBI | 8 BB | 10 K's

.212 BA | .357 | .762

Paul Konerko (10 games) - 42 PA | 39 AB | 3 Runs | 8 hits | 3 XBH | 1 HR | 4 RBI | 2 BB | 12 K's

.205 BA | .238 | .571

Conor Gillaspie (10 games) - 38 PA | 32 AB | 4 Runs | 10 hits | 4 XBH | 3 HR | 5 RBI | 5 BB | 11 K's

.313 BA | .395 | .926

Alexi Ramirez (10 games) 38 PA | 37 AB | 3 Runs | 9 hits | 1 XBH | 0 HR | 1 RBI | 1 BB | 8 K's

.243 BA | .263 | .533

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tyler Flowers (7 GS) 25 PA | 25 AB | 2 Runs | 3 hits | 1 XBH | 1 HR | 3 RBI | 0 BB | 7 K's

.120 BA | .120 | .444

Hector Gimenez (3 GS) 10 PA | 7 AB | 2 Runs | 2 Hits | 2 XBH | 1 HR | 2 RBI| 2 BB | 3 K's

.286 | .400 | 1.114

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Catchers: 35 PA | 32 AB | 4 Runs | 5 Hits | 3 XBH | 2 HR | 5 RBI | 2 BB | 10 K's

.156 BA | .200 | .575

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DeWayne Wise (6 games) 16 PA | 16 AB | 1 Run | 4 hits | 2 XBH | 1 HR | 2 RBI | 0 BB | 2 K's

.250 BA | .250 | .750

Jordan Danks (3 games) 7 PA | 7 AB | 0 Runs | 0 Hits | 0 XBH | 0 HR | 1 RBI | 2 BB | 2 K's

.000 BA | .286 | .286

Blake Tekotte (1 game)3 PA | 2 AB | 0 Runs | 0 Hits | 0 XBH | 0 HR | 0 RBI | 1 BB | 2 K's

.000 BA | .333 | .333

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CF: 26 PA | 25 AB | 1 Run | 4 Hits | 2 XBH | 1 HR | 3 RBI | 3 BB | 6 K's

.160 BA | .280 | .600

Offensive trends in the last 10 games April 22nd - May 4th

Alejandro De Aza (10 Games) - 42 PA | 38 AB | 6 Runs | 10 Hits | 3 XBH | 1 HR | 2 RBI | 4 BB | 13 K's

.263 BA | .333 | .728

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jeff Keppinger (6 Games) - 25 PA | 25 AB | 2 Runs| 7 Hits | 1 XBH | 0 HR | 2 RBI | 0 BB | 3 K's

.280 BA | .280 | .600

Tyler Greene (4 Games) - 18 PA | 16 AB | 3 Runs | 4 Hits | 2 XBH | 1 HR | 2 RBI | 2 BB | 9 K's

.250 BA | .333 | .896

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2B (10 games) - 43 PA | 41 AB | 5 Runs | 11 Hits | 3 XBH | 1 HR | 4 RBI | 2 BB | 12 K's

.268 BA | .302 | .717

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Alex Rios (10 games) - 43 PA | 39 AB | 6 Runs | 6 hits | 1 XBH | 1 HR | 4 RBI | 4 BB | 7 K's

.154 BA | .256 | .487

Adam Dunn (10 games) - 42 PA | 33 AB | 4 Runs | 7 hits | 4 XBH | 3 HR | 6 RBI | 8 BB | 10 K's

.212 BA | .357 | .762

Paul Konerko (10 games) - 42 PA | 39 AB | 3 Runs | 8 hits | 3 XBH | 1 HR | 4 RBI | 2 BB | 12 K's

.205 BA | .238 | .571

Conor Gillaspie (10 games) - 38 PA | 32 AB | 4 Runs | 10 hits | 4 XBH | 3 HR | 5 RBI | 5 BB | 11 K's

.313 BA | .395 | .926

Alexi Ramirez (10 games) 38 PA | 37 AB | 3 Runs | 9 hits | 1 XBH | 0 HR | 1 RBI | 1 BB | 8 K's

.243 BA | .263 | .533

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tyler Flowers (7 GS) 25 PA | 25 AB | 2 Runs | 3 hits | 1 XBH | 1 HR | 3 RBI | 0 BB | 7 K's

.120 BA | .120 | .444

Hector Gimenez (3 GS) 10 PA | 7 AB | 2 Runs | 2 Hits | 2 XBH | 1 HR | 2 RBI| 2 BB | 3 K's

.286 | .400 | 1.114

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Catchers: 35 PA | 32 AB | 4 Runs | 5 Hits | 3 XBH | 2 HR | 5 RBI | 2 BB | 10 K's

.156 BA | .200 | .575

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DeWayne Wise (6 games) 16 PA | 16 AB | 1 Run | 4 hits | 2 XBH | 1 HR | 2 RBI | 0 BB | 2 K's

.250 BA | .250 | .750

Jordan Danks (3 games) 7 PA | 7 AB | 0 Runs | 0 Hits | 0 XBH | 0 HR | 1 RBI | 2 BB | 2 K's

.000 BA | .286 | .286

Blake Tekotte (1 game)3 PA | 2 AB | 0 Runs | 0 Hits | 0 XBH | 0 HR | 0 RBI | 1 BB | 2 K's

.000 BA | .333 | .333

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CF: 26 PA | 25 AB | 1 Run | 4 Hits | 2 XBH | 1 HR | 3 RBI | 3 BB | 6 K's

.160 BA | .280 | .600

Poll

Is it time to reshuffle the line up?

Yes

2 votes

No

2 votes

4 votes | Poll has closed

The Fleeting Value of Tyler Flowers

2013-05-03T22:49:44Z

April 5th, 2013. With the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the 10th, Tyler Flowers walked into the batter’s box. The Sox were down 8-7 and Flowers already had two home runs on the year. Before the first pitch, I offered my buddy Dan a prediction. “If Tyler Flowers hits a walk-off grand slam,” I texted, “he will be a drunk t-shirt jersey purchase of mine before the end of the month.”

He promptly struck out. Ah well. Shrugz.

Tyler Flowers and I have an agreement. It’s an agreement that he knows absolutely nothing about, that I haven’t tried to contact him about, nor would he care about if somehow I did manage to contact him about it (it’s an agreement with myself involving Tyler Flowers, is what I’m saying). I will not judge Tyler Flowers’ value by the same criteria I used to judge Pierzynski’s value: offense. Granted, Pierzynski’s 2012 was an anomaly in many ways—35 year old anybody shouldn’t be having a career season, let alone a catcher—but expecting Flowers to attain a more typical AJ slash line was still going to be a big ask for a guy whose best offensive season this decade was a 2011 Charlotte campaign in which he managed .261 average with the benefit of a .350 BABIP. Don’t worry about your bat, my dear fellow Flowers. Your true value, I “assured” him, was behind the plate.

Tyler Flowers’ defense has been his WAR saver in his first two full seasons in the league. Whereas his batting WAR over the last two seasons has been -1.1 and -1.8, and his baserunning WAR is what you’d expect from a catcher, it was his fielding WAR (2.2 in 2011, 5.1 in 2012) that managed to keep his overall WAR in the positives whilst doing backup duty.

Tyler Flowers the starter, unfortunately, has not had much value behind the plate this season. The biggest problem Flowers is having so far this season is with his arm: last season, his total defensive runs saved (DRS) was a solid 5. The season before that, it was a 3. This season, it’s already at a -2. His inability to throw out runners so far this season has been a major factor in his fielding decline. Last season, he managed to throw out runners an impressive 33% of the time. In 2011, he managed roughly 24%. So far this season, Flowers has thrown out baserunners at only a 16% rate, and that comes after he’s thrown out 2 out of the last 4 would-be thieves. All of these things taken in to account, FanGraphs has Flowers’ defensive value at a -1 so far this season, compared to the lofty numbers he managed in backup duty the season before.

Flowers’ defensive output needs to improve if it’s going to compensate for his bat. Offensively, Flowers has not shown very much in the way of potential. His offensive output in the majors has been consistently mediocre. Flowers’ plate discipline is a big part of the problem. His K rate is comparable to Adam Dunn’s, yet his walk rate regressed from about 11% in 2011 to just under 8% in 2012. That walk rate hasn’t shown any signs of improving this season, as Flowers’ walk rate is at a measly 6.6%.

If Tyler Flowers is going to have any value on the White Sox, it’s looking more and more like it’s going to have to come from behind the plate. That makes his defensive regression so far this season so troubling. If his defense doesn’t begin to trend upwards, then Flowers has no value.

*Note: Because I only registered an account with SB Nation yesterday, I had to wait 24 hours before posting this article. I wish I had watched last night’s game with somebody because I was ready to wager some fat stacks on Tyler Flowers hitting that home run. Stacks so fat, you guys.

He promptly struck out. Ah well. Shrugz.

BMO 2050 and 2051- Another Decade Bites the Dust

2013-05-03T19:38:59Z

So we just finished the last decade. Who did the best?

AL East	Wins	Losses	Win %	Playoffs	Champs
Toronto	1013	607	0.625	9	5
Boston	915	705	0.565	5	1
Baltimore	835	785	0.515	2	0
New York	825	795	0.509	1	0
Tampa Bay	733	887	0.452	0	0

AL Central	Wins	Losses	Win %	Playoffs	Champs
Detroit	932	688	0.575	5	1
Kansas City	914	706	0.564	5	1
Chicago	838	782	0.517	1	0
Minnesota	735	885	0.454	1	0
Cleveland	550	1070	0.340	1	0

AL West	Wins	Losses	Win %	Playoffs	Champs
Los Angeles	908	712	0.560	7	0
Texas	839	781	0.518	0	0
Seattle	781	839	0.482	2	0
Oakland	760	860	0.469	1	0

Oh yeah... So let's look at some weird things.

1. Texas had a pretty solid decade, but didn't have a playoff appearance. Los Angeles is the Toronto of the west. And the west never had a Wild Card team...

2. Cleveland was the Toronto of losing. Jesus...

3. The computer won 2 championships, Philadelphia in 2041 and Cincinnati in 2048. They both beat Toronto.

4. Toronto is the only team to have 10 seasons of .500 or better. Kansas City missed it by one .498 season.

5. The average team had a winning percentage of .510, and we were a +476 against the NL. Dang.

What will happen this decade?

So we just finished the last decade. Who did the best?

AL East	Wins	Losses	Win %	Playoffs	Champs
Toronto	1013	607	0.625	9	5
Boston	915	705	0.565	5	1
Baltimore	835	785	0.515	2	0
New York	825	795	0.509	1	0
Tampa Bay	733	887	0.452	0	0

AL Central	Wins	Losses	Win %	Playoffs	Champs
Detroit	932	688	0.575	5	1
Kansas City	914	706	0.564	5	1
Chicago	838	782	0.517	1	0
Minnesota	735	885	0.454	1	0
Cleveland	550	1070	0.340	1	0

AL West	Wins	Losses	Win %	Playoffs	Champs
Los Angeles	908	712	0.560	7	0
Texas	839	781	0.518	0	0
Seattle	781	839	0.482	2	0
Oakland	760	860	0.469	1	0

Oh yeah... So let's look at some weird things.

1. Texas had a pretty solid decade, but didn't have a playoff appearance. Los Angeles is the Toronto of the west. And the west never had a Wild Card team...

2. Cleveland was the Toronto of losing. Jesus...

3. The computer won 2 championships, Philadelphia in 2041 and Cincinnati in 2048. They both beat Toronto.

4. Toronto is the only team to have 10 seasons of .500 or better. Kansas City missed it by one .498 season.

5. The average team had a winning percentage of .510, and we were a +476 against the NL. Dang.

What will happen this decade?

Gillaspie: We Got a Stew Going Here?

2013-05-02T19:37:02Z

Conor Gillaspie has been covered well by both Jim and prospect guru John Sickels, but I wanted to dig a bit more into his performance so far and see if we can uncover anything about how he'll do going forward.

The knock on Gillaspie coming into this year is that although he's a left handed bat with some discipline, his bat wasn't good enough to offset his shaky glove at 3B. The classic "best position is hitter" type, except without enough hitting to stick as a full time player in MLB.

So far, through both observation and the numbers it seems Conor has turned a corner at the hot corner.

Gillaspie has been worth 1.8 runs above average according to UZR, and although it's a very small sample, we've observed his ability to make spectacular plays ranging to either side. He still isn't the surest handed or strongest armed 3B, but it seems that through hard work, he's turned himself into a solid 3B. He makes most of the routine plays and can occasionally show good range.

I don't think anyone could project him as anything other than a run neutral defender at 3B, even with his improved skillset, but there are plenty of guys in MLB that can field a position but can't hit a lick.

That's not Conor.

So far he's worked a 323/375/538 slash line, good for a wRC+ of 142. Now that's a stew. He's been a bit lucky however, as evidenced by his BABIP of .400. However, Conor is not Adam Dunn, his career MLB BABIP is .306 and his last year in AAA he put up a .339 BABIP.

Using a simple xBABIP (regressed for "luck" BABIP, more accurate going forward than BABIP) calculator spits out a xBABIP for Conor of .339. So regress his line down to 262/314/479. While not nearly as sexy as his current line, in today's 3B depleted, declining offense across MLB environment, that's more than enough to provide value as a regular starter.

One thing to note however is that Conor has turned 17.1% of his FBs into HR. For a non-slugger, that's high. Unsustainable high. At least two of his HRs have been aided by the short porch in RF at Texas Stadium and the winds at the Cell (the night the wind was blowing out hard to right he hit a "just enougher").

His luck with fly balls is evidenced by his updated ZIPS projection: 273/333/418. Expect a few more walks and quite a few less HR from Conor the rest of the year.

Conor is a disciplined hitter. His outside zone swinging percentage is only 21%, nearly 8 points lower than the league average. When he does swing, he's swinging with a bit more oomph this year, as he's only making contact on 76.8% of pitches he offers at, League average is 79.3%. As long as he continues to hit the ball hard when he does make contact (and his HR% on fly balls, while a bit lucky, is also good evidence that he's swinging hard and making solid contact) he'll be fine, even when his HR rate regresses.

It will be interesting how Conor deals with the inevitable BABIP regression. Can he continue to stay disciplined? I think he can, his track record in the minors suggests his patience is no fluke. He's always been a patient hitter with a good eye for the strike zone.

I think we got ourselves a bit of a stew going here.

via farm1.staticflickr.com

Gillaspie has been lucky to an extent, but even when he regresses he's shown real improvement as an MLB caliber defender at 3B and his platoon advantage as a lefty is a huge point in his favor. Two days out of three he's going to be facing a righty, and so far, he's crushing righties for a 172 RC+.

At worst, it seems the Sox have a guy they can start against all but the toughest LHP and expect solid, 2-3 WAR type seasons.

So far, through both observation and the numbers it seems Conor has turned a corner at the hot corner.

That's not Conor.

His luck with fly balls is evidenced by his updated ZIPS projection: 273/333/418. Expect a few more walks and quite a few less HR from Conor the rest of the year.

I think we got ourselves a bit of a stew going here.

via farm1.staticflickr.com

At worst, it seems the Sox have a guy they can start against all but the toughest LHP and expect solid, 2-3 WAR type seasons.

Bubblegum, Bubblegum in a Sewage Pit, How Many Pieces Do You Get?

2013-05-01T15:04:23Z

Shortly after sunset, Robin and Parent sit Indian style upon the glass ledge of the Willis Tower, scratching at it with their fingers like its yellow wallpaper, watching the fog roll in from Lake Michigan. Their eyes peered through the shaving cream smeared all over their faces. There was an elephant in the glass cube causing an awkward silence that had been hovering all afternoon. Finally Robin spoke.

"You know, I really wish Swisher hadn't done that."

"The worm at home plate, the push-ups on first base or the discount double-check after the homerun?"

"None of that, he has the will to win and he has every right to demonstrate it. Its not his gumption and grit that makes me sad, it’s his switch-hitting. I don't like that."

"I know what you mean, how are you supposed to win when you can't have a lefty pitch to a lefty and a righty pitch to a righty.

The prior night against the Indians Robin had employed a new tactic to deal with a switch-hitter in the latter part of the game. So in the fifth inning he replaced Axelrod with Veal when Swisher came to the plate. Swisher went to hit right-handed and as soon as he stepped in the box, Veal fainted and after a once over from Herm it was decided he couldn't continue.

So Robin brought in Lindstrom and Swisher stepped into the box as a lefty, Lindstrom threw the ball 20 feet above Swisher head and immediately fell to the ground holding his elbow. Robin then brought in Thornton and Swisher switched sides again, Thornton blatantly doctored the ball with some Vagisil and was thrown out of the game by home plate umpire Lance Barksdale. Crain was next, Swisher swished again but Crain suffered a heart attack.

This dance went on until the bullpen was exhausted and Sale was brought in to finish the game. Sale was visibly pissed at having to come in as a reliever and he grooved a fastball out over the plate and Swisher crushed it into the left field stands.

"I thought he would get dizzy. I know if someone did that to me, that I would get dizzy. I'm dizzy now."

"Well, Peavy said he would have Dr. James Andrews surgically attach an arm to the middle of his back so he could throw over his head to switch-hitters. He could come out of the pen and still start the next day. He's be the first SOOGY ever and he might help usher in a brand new era in major league baseball."

"Naw, I don't want to be the next Billy Beane."

"Then we are going to have to forfeit every game just like last night."

"I didn't think Swisher would get to the plate again."

"He got to the plate again in the same inning."

"I'll bet the press is crucifying me."

"No way, the blog guys maybe but not the press. The press understands what it takes to win a ball game."

"If I hadn't pinch hit for Paulie in the fourth, then Santiago might have been available for Swisher, perhaps then he would have been dizzy but there was a man on first with no outs and pitchers are pretty good bunters."

"The last thing a manager should ever do is second guess himself. Santiago got the Dunn to second, it was a great bunt. How did you know that they would put the Keppy shift on and move all the fielders to the right side of the field. Shit, Reynolds was on the dugout steps when he caught that linedrive."

"I think Francona might be out-managing me, that was brilliant. How are we supposed to hit behind the runner with a shift on like that?

"I don't know Robin, I just don't know."

"I've been thinking…If we could find a pitcher with no arms then maybe Peavy wouldn't have to have that surgery but we'd have to find a no-armed soccer player or maybe a thalidomide baby that can hackey-sack."

"That would be cutting edge, Robin. Cutting edge…but I don't think Hahn scouts hippies."

"You're right we don't need pot in the clubhouse. Maybe we should look at the numbers and see which pitchers historically do well against lefties and righties. Perhaps then we could make an educated guess on who can perform the best."

Silence again reigned supreme in their self-imposed fishbowl prison cell, there was only an hour before the ball game. They didn't have much time. After a time, Parent broke the wall of soundlessness.

"Are you suggesting we use advanced statistics?"

"No, not really, I mean, I just think we could run some algorithmtations and but also factor in the will to win. At this point I am willing to try anything. I can't take this losing."

"What are we going to do about the defensive miscues?"

"I haven't decided yet but I think deterrence might be an option. A kangaroo court ran by the coaches might scare them straight. Also, I have clearance from Hahn to bring in Tom Emanski as special consultant to the team. He'd be our ace in the hole kind of like the Red Sox think James Williams is for them with his cybermatrixes."

"Fred McGriff swears by Emanski. We might have just stumbled upon the new market consistency."

The two coaches thought they were alone but they heard some shuffling behind them. They turned around to find Alexei Ramirez standing behind them, arms crossed, with a disappointed smug look on his face.

"C'mon mang."

"You know, I really wish Swisher hadn't done that."

"The worm at home plate, the push-ups on first base or the discount double-check after the homerun?"

"None of that, he has the will to win and he has every right to demonstrate it. Its not his gumption and grit that makes me sad, it’s his switch-hitting. I don't like that."

"I know what you mean, how are you supposed to win when you can't have a lefty pitch to a lefty and a righty pitch to a righty.

"I thought he would get dizzy. I know if someone did that to me, that I would get dizzy. I'm dizzy now."

"Naw, I don't want to be the next Billy Beane."

"Then we are going to have to forfeit every game just like last night."

"I didn't think Swisher would get to the plate again."

"He got to the plate again in the same inning."

"I'll bet the press is crucifying me."

"No way, the blog guys maybe but not the press. The press understands what it takes to win a ball game."

"I think Francona might be out-managing me, that was brilliant. How are we supposed to hit behind the runner with a shift on like that?

"I don't know Robin, I just don't know."

"That would be cutting edge, Robin. Cutting edge…but I don't think Hahn scouts hippies."

"Are you suggesting we use advanced statistics?"

"No, not really, I mean, I just think we could run some algorithmtations and but also factor in the will to win. At this point I am willing to try anything. I can't take this losing."

"What are we going to do about the defensive miscues?"

"Fred McGriff swears by Emanski. We might have just stumbled upon the new market consistency."

"C'mon mang."

My Favorite Stat

2013-04-26T19:02:20Z

via CarlSkanberg.com

Pre-ramble: I wrote this early on the morning of July 7th, 2012, when Kevin Youkilis was at the height of his White Sox heroics. I shared the cartoon above but Hawk's TWTW stat reminded me that I never shared my Youk-inspired stat.

If form follows function, Kevin Youkilis’ batting stance suggests he’s trying to hit knuckleballs shot from the pitcher’s ass. Bat over his head, pointed at the pitcher, top hand twisted at the base of the barrel, knees fully knocked, he seems to bouncing in an effort to catch the last tooth on his inner gear to lock into fully-coiled position. His face is working too hard.

Results are what matter, boys. You can’t judge a cake by its candles. Sometimes, annoying and useless histrionics don’t adversely affect the outcome. Sometimes, a guy will avoid writing, "you can’t judge a book by its cover," simply because they’re trying to be cute. I don’t know what Kevin Youkilis is trying to accomplish with his silly crap. When he was in a Red Sox uniform, I wanted Kevin Youkilis to knock it off. Knock it all the fuck off. It wasn’t cute. There is no way that batting stance serves a purpose. He may have gotten on base. He may have struck out. I only remember he was on my TV acting like a spaz, until he wasn’t. He was a coffee table book with a giant Red Sox penis on the cover. If Slaughterhouse Five was on the pages, I would have never known.

My newfound respect for Youk is not tempered by my oldlost distain for Youkilis. Kiss my ass. Now alookyhere: I respect the talent evaluators focused on the value of a player’s production. It’s an aspect of the game that is consumable, but it’s the broccoli in my diet. I’m more focused on the number of times a guy makes me go, "yea," versus the times I go, "fuck this guy." The number of times I "go" is a real real rough number, by the way. General Managers probably grew up reading stats on baseball cards. Their eyes probably jumped to the AVG column, or maybe they liked the HR column. The OBP column probably seemed interesting, but that was still some Carl Sagan shit back in 1981. At 4am this morning, I was thinking about my new love of Youk, and I remembered that I used to focus on the TEAM column. A guy’s journey through the TEAM column was a good story. The length of a guy’s career was not measured in years but by the font size on the back of his baseball card. I liked the baseball hobos, traveling through minor league towns with a couple recognizable major league towns sprinkled in. One horrifying day, I discovered Dennis Lamp’s closest contained skeletons in Cubs jerseys.

What the fuck, my South Side Sox friends, am I blathering about? I’ll tell you what. Yooooooouk! Some people like his OBP. Some people combine his OBP and SLG and get aroused. I’ve invented a new stat: OPT (OBP + TEAM.) Youkilis’ OPT was once around .380BOS. Fuck that guy. He’s recently raised his OPT to something around .380CWS. He’s the Greek God of OPT. And he’s fun to watch. He has an adorable batting stance.

via CarlSkanberg.com

Jack M goes to some soccer games! (!!!)

2013-04-24T15:48:00Z

As some of you might have heard, I recently went on a trip through Europe to see three football games: Arsenal vs. Reading at the Emirates, London; PSG vs. Barcelona Champion's League quarterfinal in Paris; Barcelona vs. Mallorca league match in Barcelona. Our trip progression went London > Paris > Munich > Barcelona, 12 days. Going to share some photos and nuggets from all the games. Disclaimer: there will be lots of excitement and photos, so if you're not into either of those things or soccer in general, you might want to stop reading now!

Game 1: Arsenal vs. Reading, 3/30/13, THE REASON FOR THE TRIP OMG ARSENAL, Premier League

Some overall description and nuggets and then photos. First, the stadium and surrounding area is amazing. There are three statues: Herbert Chapman, Tony Adams, and Thierry Henry on the concourse, and the exterior wall of the stadium is covered with photos and stats of Arsenal players and coach and fan testimonials. I probably spent an hour reading everything and walking around. A short walk from the park you can find the converted remains of Highbury, their first stadium, which has been turned into condos and living quarters. We went to a supporter's club that isn't much bigger than a kitchen, but had a tiny bar and walls covered in photos of past and present Arsenal players. We then found a bar that was only allowing Arsenal season ticket members in. How freaking sweet is that? It was packed.

Inside the stadium, the seats are large (we were two rows from the top and could still see everything just fine) and you can straight up make bets at GunnersGaming booths right up until kickoff (I put five pounds each on Arteta and Ramsey anytime goalscorers, Giroud first goalscorer, and 3-1 final score). You can't take beer into the seating area, so pretty much everyone stays away from their seats until just before kickoff drinking beer, eating food, and watching the TVs which have EPL news and highlights and game action going on, plus Arsenal pre-match analysis. The game was pretty fun from an Arsenal fan perspective, I think possession ended up being 70-30 to Arsenal, 3 points never seemed in danger even when Reading got their one goal to make it 2-1. Santi is a hell of a player. Also, 3/30 was the twelve year anniversary of David 'Rocky' Rocastle, so before the game they had a tribute and FOR THE FIRST TEN MINUTES the entire stadium sang his song: "Oh Rocky Rocky, Rocky Rocky Rocky Rocky Rocastle." I have never experienced anything quite as emotional or powerful as that. Getting back on the tube and back to the part of London where we were staying was quite the ordeal, I think we stood in queue for about an hour or so. All very orderly, though. And now, photos!

Arsenal TUBE STATION:

Me and Titi:

Some guns, you know the whole Gunner thing:

Big Arsenal letters:

That amazing supporter's club I referenced, you can see all the photographs on the walls, the bar is in the back right corner:

Preserved East Stand facade from Highbury:

Inside the stadium:

Pre-match, of course Wilshere and Walcott were injured for the game!

One Arsene Wenger:

The Emirates, what a stadium. The man in the photos with me is Tom:

Game 2: Paris St-Germain (PSG) vs. Barcelona, 4/2/13 Champions League QUARTERFINAL!

The PSG stadium is on the western edges of Paris, and a concrete type structure, much older and smaller than the Emirates. It's right in the middle of homes and neighborhoods much like Wrigley is, we had dinner and bieres at a cafe not more than 5 minutes from the stadium, which was lovely. Key thing about this game was that it was Champion's League, not a league game, so the atmosphere was maybe 100x louder and more energetic. We entered the stadium about 45 minutes before kickoff, and the majority of fans were in their seats and singing and yelling already. Just electric. Our seats were toward the top and just about in line with one of the goals, great view of the action. Beckham started! He seemed to hold his own. Messi scored one of the most amazing goals I've ever seen in person in the first half to go up 1-0. Dani Alves hit an outside right foot chipped pass over the defense, that curled from left to right like a sliced golf shot, which Messi let bounce into his stride and volleyed into the side netting with his left foot. It was amazing. IBRA equalized in the second half (he was offsides and Barca were defending the corner with 9 men due to the ref not letting two injured guys back on) which caused the PSG faithful to go INSANE and light off flares. Everytime Ibra did anything well or scored the entire stadium did a "IBRA IBRA IBRA" chant. Cesc won a penalty which Xavi converted, which prompted lots of whistles and jeers. Everytime Barca passed the ball backwards or sideways the PSG fans were jeering and whistling; I think whistling is the European form of booing in some insntances. AND THEN: in the final seconds, a long ball went into Barca's box and MATUIDI SLAMMED IT HOME AND THE FINAL WHISTLE BLEW AND THE PLACE ERUPTED. Sheer madness and exhiliration and ectasy and all those things. Photos!

The Champion's League anthem played and it was GLORIOUS:

Xavi lines up his penalty:

Ibra, Beckham, and Lucas talk it over, Ibra took it, of course:

Parc des Princes:

Game 3: Barcelona vs. Mallorca, 4/6/13, La Liga

This was easily the most one-sided affair of the whole match, Barca put 4 goals in the first half! It ended up being 5-0, Cesc Fabregas had a hat trick (yes I'm still bitter, but damn did he look good. Also hi Alex Song!). The Camp Nou is MASSIVE: three tiers, easily the biggest stadium of the three on our trip. Barcelona and Spanish culture is a bit different than what I'm used to and I loved it. Their day starts and ends later, kickoff for this match was at 10:30PM! We had many cervesas before. Easily the closest of our seats, we were about ten rows from the pitch and while we had almost no depth perception of the play, we could see and hear EVERYTHING. Like Iniesta yelling "SI SI SI SI" to Song demanding him to pass the ball, Pinto being extremely vocal in directing his defense where to go, and every whack of the ball and challenge. It was great. Also Abidal made his return to action, being subbed on in the second half and that was quite a neat moment. The fans all chant "Abi, Abi, Abi, Abi" when he came on and during his play. A realy feel good story, happy he was able to overcome his ailment and get back to playing. There was a dad with his two young sons sitting right in front of us, they must have been not more than 8 and 10, and were freaking cute as hell. The dad and boys knew everyone in the section and they were all having conversations throughout the match, in Catalan, which is a really funky dialect. I love baseball but growing up going to 18-20 Barcelona games a year would probably have been pretty cool too. Photos:

More than a club:

Our seats were really close!

I highly recommend that if you're a soccer fan and have the means, go to a game in England or Spain or one of the top leagues. It was an experience I'll never forget and completely cemented my Arsenal fan-ness. Already looking at dates to go back next season. If you made it to the end, thanks for reading! I got a little verbose.

Game 1: Arsenal vs. Reading, 3/30/13, THE REASON FOR THE TRIP OMG ARSENAL, Premier League

Arsenal TUBE STATION:

Me and Titi:

Some guns, you know the whole Gunner thing:

Big Arsenal letters:

That amazing supporter's club I referenced, you can see all the photographs on the walls, the bar is in the back right corner:

Preserved East Stand facade from Highbury:

Inside the stadium:

Pre-match, of course Wilshere and Walcott were injured for the game!

One Arsene Wenger:

The Emirates, what a stadium. The man in the photos with me is Tom:

Game 2: Paris St-Germain (PSG) vs. Barcelona, 4/2/13 Champions League QUARTERFINAL!

The Champion's League anthem played and it was GLORIOUS:

Xavi lines up his penalty:

Ibra, Beckham, and Lucas talk it over, Ibra took it, of course:

Parc des Princes:

Game 3: Barcelona vs. Mallorca, 4/6/13, La Liga

More than a club:

Our seats were really close!

The Cubans: Fun With Free Swingers and PitchFX Data

2013-04-18T19:59:57Z

Been awhile since I contributed anything to the site outside of "Adam Dunn sucks". Here ya'll go. If you're in a hurry, just read the highlighted bits, they're the most important.

For Caribbean players the adage, "you can't walk off the Island" has long held true. That's painting (some would say "stereotyping or "pigeonholing") with a broad brush but it certainly applies to the White Sox's Cuban born players Dayan Viciedo and Alexei Ramirez -- neither is what you would describe as a patient hitter. Both bring other virtues to the plate, but patience is not one of them.

The free swingers Ramirez and Viciedo are off to divergent starts at the plate one hot, one cold, let's investigate the underlying data and see how it affects (if at all) their projected future value.

___________________________________________________________________________

Let's start with Ramirez's data and analyze his hot start in relation to it.

via sportsmockery.com

For his career, Ramirez has an outside zone swinging percentage of 37% and a walk rate of only 5.3%. During his putrid 2012 season (slash line of 265/287/364), his outside zone swinging percentage was 41.5%, the highest of his career...until this season, in which he's swinging at 45% of those pitches. Despite this uptick in free swinging his walk rate his bounced back from 2.6% last year to 6.9% this year, helping fuel a nice 327/379/481 slash line.

Ramirez hasn't really improved his approach (to no surprise, as plate discipline is something that rarely improves on young players, let alone on a player as into his prime as Ramirez) but what he is doing is making his swings count.

His LD% is up to 25%, fueling his (probably unsustainable) .340 BABIP. On swings on pitches inside the zone he's making contact a whopping 98% of the time. That's up from his career average of 91.4%. Ramirez is also making contact on 75.4% of pitches outside the zone, again, up about 5% from his career averages. Ramirez is seeing the ball and hitting the ball.

Despite his success at making contact outside the zone, he isn't really going deep into counts, he is seeing only 3.47 pitches per PA, a few tenths of a point below his career avg.

After considering the data, I feel pretty confident concluding that Ramirez will come back to earth, but what we're seeing is that last year was a "fluke" as far as true talent level for Ramirez at the plate. Right now Ramirez is hammering balls over the middle of the plate, and also fouling or putting into play balls he usually strikes out on (and probably will again once his hot streak is over). Fueled by an uptick in line drive rate driven BABIP and some getting into more deep counts, he currently sports a sexy 131 wRC+ which, combined with his defense has given him .6 WAR already. WAR is not a predictive stat, the underlying swing data says more fluke than anything else. But last year was also a fluke in a negative way -- regression works both ways.

With the current paucity of quality hitting SS in MLB ,a decent hitting slick glove player like Ramirez is quite useful. His updated zips projection now has him with a wRC+ of 92, which should be good enough for 3-4 WAR depending on defense and baserunning.

Even with his disastrous year at the plate last year he contributed enough elsewhere to be credited for 1.8 fWAR. I argued earlier in the year (as did a number of Sox fans) that Ramirez is closer to a 4 WAR player than a 2 WAR player as long as his bat regressed to his career average, which so far, so good.

For a Sox team short on solid values in the field, Ramirez earning his contract helps offset problem areas alsewhere . A 3-4 WAR year wouldn't necessarily be a pleasant surprise, but it would be pleasant.

______________________________________________________________

Dayan Viciedo has often been compared to another well nicknamed, stout LF with great pop but not much patience -- former Sox outfielder Carlos "El Caballo" Lee. Like Lee, Viciedo has a powerful swing capable of line drives and towering home runs alike. Like Lee, he's a mediocre fielder who also won't take many walks. Like Lee, his value is going to be tied to two things as a hitter -- ability to hit for average and hit for power.

via a.espncdn.com

So far in his career Dayan has displayed the latter but not much of the former. Despite hitting for high averages in the minor leagues and his early stints with the Sox, last year saw Dayan struggle to a 255/300/440 slash line. Raise that average 30 points and hit a few more balls hard and Viciedo could sport a 285/330/500 line. In today's run environment that would be useful, as the aggregate LF in MLB last year could only manage a 754 OPS.

Despite ringing endorsements (or maybe the kiss of death) from Adam Dunn and Hawk about Dayan's talent level, so far he hasn't really put it together this season. The past few games have been nice though, and let's look at his 2013 data to see if we can see any early trends.

The first thing that pops out is that he's yet to take a walk. He's swinging at 60% of all pitches seen, and a whopping 43% of pitches outside the zone. He's making Ramirez look like Dunn, or, pre "aggressive 2013 Dunn" anyways.

Unlike Ramirez, Tank isn't making great contact in the zone or out of it: he's made contact only 77.3% on pitches inside the zone and outside the zone only 43%. Unlike Ramirez, Tank is not a guy that is going be able to hit for a high average unless he becomes more disciplined. His K% is 32% and it's easy to see why: when you swing as hard as he does, you better make sure you're swinging at good pitches, or you're going to strike out and have a hard time hitting for average. Vlad Guerrero he is not.

Viciedo sees only 3.72 pitches per PA, which isn't surprising.

We've covered the problems with Tank at the plate, let's focus on some positives. When he does make contact, he's hitting the ball hard, as his .197 ISO suggests. Also, he's hitting less infield popups (down to 12.5% from 16% last year) and less ground balls relative to fly balls (.5 ground balls per fly ball, which is inverted from the 1.5 ground balls to fly balls he had last year). His HR% on fly balls is down 4% to 12.5%. Some of that is bad luck, some of it probably cold weather. His LD% is up a tick to 22.6%.

Viciedo basically has one excellent tool (ability to hit for power) and a bunch that need working on at the plate. In order to turn into anything more than a 1 WAR player he needs to improve his discipline on pitches outside the zone and continue to hit more fly balls than ground balls. He's been successful with the latter not with the former.

Needless to say, this is a make or break year for Tank. If he can continue to work on his pitch identification both in the box and out of it (in the video room) and continues to hit a lot of fly balls he should turn into a 280/320/480 type hitter, which isn't any great shakes, but is certainly useful, especially with the left handed outfield bats the Sox have that can rest him against the toughest righties maybe nudging that line up a bit higher.

Right now it's a bit of a cause and effect problem for Tank. If he continues to hit alot of fly balls, he's going to hit a good amount of HRs. If he hits a bunch of HRs, he's going to be pitched to more carefully. At that point he either has to improve his plate discipline or his ability to hit pitches hard outside of the zone. If he fails to do neither he'll be nothing more than a platoon player. If he does both he'll be a star.

I'm guessing somewhere in the middle: a 2 WAR type player that needs to be mashing LHP to earn playing time. Sadly, I was hoping for more data that would say Tank has at least improved on his ability to not swing at pitches outside of the zone, but right now that data just isn't there. The article from Beyond the Box Score I linked earlier suggests younger players occasional improve their plate discipline, but it's far from a given.

Been awhile since I contributed anything to the site outside of "Adam Dunn sucks". Here ya'll go. If you're in a hurry, just read the highlighted bits, they're the most important.

___________________________________________________________________________

Let's start with Ramirez's data and analyze his hot start in relation to it.

via sportsmockery.com

Despite his success at making contact outside the zone, he isn't really going deep into counts, he is seeing only 3.47 pitches per PA, a few tenths of a point below his career avg.

______________________________________________________________

via a.espncdn.com

Viciedo sees only 3.72 pitches per PA, which isn't surprising.

They’ve got some work TO DOOOO: On Farmer and Jackson

2013-04-18T16:04:01Z

My Dad tells me lots of baseball related stories. Most I have forgotten because that’s just how my brain works. But one that has stuck with me is when he was a child, his dad would come home from work, sit out on the back porch, and listen to the Milwaukee Braves play on the radio from start to finish, day after day. This story fascinates me for several reasons; one: were there not mosquitoes in the 60’s?, two: it’s so hard now to imagine baseball without HD, twitter commentary, and air conditioning, and three: this sounds heavenly.

Up until this season, I’ve never really listened to the Sox on the radio except occasionally while in the car, maybe one or two games a season. And it’s whatever. Ed Farmer rambles on for a bit, then Darrin Jackson has his turn, and it goes on in that fashion until I arrive at my destination. No big deal. But how do those two hold up over time? That is the question.

I currently work at Cosi most nights a week. It’s a shitty job but it fills the void between graduating from college and going back to more college. For those who don’t know what Cosi is, congrats! But it’s one of those urbane corner restaurants that charges you 8 bucks for a soup and a salad, which forces me to mention: YOU CAN NOW GAIN ENTRANCE TO A WHITE SOX GAME FOR LESS THAN A MOTHERFUCKING SOUP AND SALAD. IT’S A BEAUTIFUL WORLD. The magic of Cosi, though, is we smile at you a lot and give you enough free coffee refills to make you think it’s worth it. Where’s your free refills, Reinsdorf??

(A Cosi fun fact: the restaurant was named after the Italian opera, “Cosi Fan Tutte”, which can be roughly translated to “women cannot be trusted.” Take what you want from this.)

Obviously I can’t watch the White Sox at night if I’m working so I’ve adapted to listening along on the old radio. Well actually there’s no radio. (What’s a radio?) I listen through the MLB At Bat app on my phone. (I recommend it. $20 well spent.) So now the chore of making salads and sandwiches collides head-on with the traveling pony show that is the Chicago White Sox, making the monotony of work only more monotonous!

The one thing you realize right away with audio is there’s some things words just can’t do justice. Like Dayan Viciedo’s swing, for instance. There are not enough human senses available to fully enjoy that. I want to touch it and rub my face all over it. But then there are guys like Jeff Keppinger and Alex Rios where I feel I probably enjoy them more by not having to see them. That’s sort of the sinister beauty of Farmio and DJ, they suck the life out of each player equally to where I start picturing the diamond appearing as a scene from The Giver.

So what do we make of Ed Farmer and Darrin Jackson? Not good, right? If I had to sum up their collective broadcasting quality, I would simply offer up this example:

Farmer: “The next pitch should be a slider down and away.”

Jackson: “Well that’s only if you want to get him out.”

Farmer’s smug way of saying “I used to pitch in the majors”, followed by resident parrot, Darrin Jackson, adding his two cents with his own way of saying “Hey, I played baseball too!” Their charm knows no end.

In one sense, my contrarian, slightly narcissistic self sort of loves how this duo is a kick in the junk to whatever they are teaching at Syracuse. But yikes. They play the “buddy cop” dynamic quite well assuming the movie you are comparing them to is White Chicks. Jackson just bores me. I would say he’s annoying or unfunny but most of the time I can’t bother paying attention to him. I had a roommate once that reminds me of him. He would wear a polo shirt with khaki pants and a baseball belt. He was very proud of this. I literally can’t remember a single point he ever made.

Ed Farmer is the one I find interesting. He has a Marc Maron type neurosis to him that is oddly addictive. He’s an arrogant prick, there’s no question about that. Plus he provides just abysmal play-by-play. It’s more like play-by-sidebar-by-play, where sometimes the sidebars become stories and the games become a self-reflective podcast. But I feel like baseball, along with sports like golf and NASCAR, needs sidebars. There isn’t enough happening to warrant description of each pitch. Your mind naturally trails off during a baseball game, and Farmer’s trails off with you. It just so happens that Farmer’s mind is always two drinks in at a sad towny bar at 11pm.

I think you may know where I’m going with this, but listening to Farmer at work is sort of cathartic for me. I start thinking about things that I know I wouldn’t otherwise think about. Part of it may be the hypnotic effect of making one pesto chicken melt after the next, but when Farmer wonders off to a story about his playing days, my mind moves to the future and what I hope I can become. It’s a strange paradox where his moroseness invigorates me. His ability to say nothing of significance allows me the chance to think. His droning voice exists as the medium between Cosi and dreams.

None of us know what we are doing in life, or, for that matter, what Farmer and Jackson are doing together in a broadcast booth, yet we go to work each day trying to make something of ourselves. I can’t help but think about my grandpa and the back porch without realizing it was never about the baseball as much as it was everything else.

(A Cosi fun fact: the restaurant was named after the Italian opera, “Cosi Fan Tutte”, which can be roughly translated to “women cannot be trusted.” Take what you want from this.)

So what do we make of Ed Farmer and Darrin Jackson? Not good, right? If I had to sum up their collective broadcasting quality, I would simply offer up this example:

Farmer: “The next pitch should be a slider down and away.”

Jackson: “Well that’s only if you want to get him out.”

Ball-rolling RRRR: The annual SSS outing 2013

2013-04-18T05:28:58Z

Now that the season is well underway, it’s time to get planning the Fifth Annual South Side Sox Outing. I’ve seen enough inquiries in the comments to know that the interest is out there and the word is already spreading like that pesky venereal disease that we’ve all surely contracted at previous SSS Outings. This year, we shall gather in White Sox Based Balls merriment on Saturday June 29th, to see the Cleveland Indians play the White Sox. The game begins at 3:05 PM. Tailgate will probably kick off around Noon.

I know what most of you are thinking.

DoritosboooooooobiesbeeerflavoredoritosboobssSay,why are we not meeting in late May this year and playing an NL team that doesn’t involve the sickening presence of one Swisher, Fuck Nick?

In short, I couldn’t get the usual Memorial Day week off of work this year, so I went after this holiday’s trip, which also had the more appealing Sox home series’ (not interested in seeing the Cubs, sorry dudebrahs).

Please proceed to express your interest in going (serious or other) in the comments below.

Also, please consider the cause for occasion at hand before responding.

While I know some of you enjoy being attached at the hip to your spouses and significant others at all possible times of the day and night, we try to keep the number of plus-one’s to a minimum each year (out-of-town travelers, eg).

Of course I do support having a designated driver. But do they have to sit with us? (heheh) But seriously, I would encourage exploring public transportation options foremost, if that’s within the grasp of your coordinates and resources. Or if you’re coming into town from afar, perhaps having a place to crash in Chicago for the night is a wise arrangement.

Additionally, and I’m serious dammit! - this has proven to not be an environment for children (unless you’re an OPOS and your children are of drinking age) (and they preferably have prior experience in Turkish prisons) (actually, please have them send me their résumés in advance of purchasing tickets).

Probably goes without saying that little kids can’t even function as DDs, so they’re out, leave ‘em at home or at the train station, I don’t care, show me pictures after I’ve had a few Zombie Dusts, I’m sure we’d love them too, thank you in advance for your compliance, I hear they have great family deals on Sundays.

So, who’s prepared to join us at the 5th Annual Outing (aka: meet-up, aka: meth-up)?

Email me if you have any questions that you prefer to discuss offline.

I know what most of you are thinking.

DoritosboooooooobiesbeeerflavoredoritosboobssSay,why are we not meeting in late May this year and playing an NL team that doesn’t involve the sickening presence of one Swisher, Fuck Nick?

Please proceed to express your interest in going (serious or other) in the comments below.

Also, please consider the cause for occasion at hand before responding.

So, who’s prepared to join us at the 5th Annual Outing (aka: meet-up, aka: meth-up)?

Email me if you have any questions that you prefer to discuss offline.