Over at Baseball Prospectus, Jay Jaffe is targeting inefficiencies across the defensive spectrum. In other words, he's looking for places where managers have made offense a low priority, even though the lesser defensive requirements should make it an offense-first position.

This time, it's left field. Jaffe takes on the task with the assumption that when the White Sox traded Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednik, they ushered in an era of a speedier, slappier left fielder. However, he finds out that the production of left fielders has been on the decline since before 2005.

It's an interesting trend to think about, although for the White Sox, the answer is pretty simple: Left field is where the leadoff man lives. Ozzie Guillen had a very narrow definition of what a leadoff man should look like, and left field happened to be the one area where Kenny Williams could acquire a leadoffy guy after other leadoffy projects, like Chris Getz, failed. Look at the number of games where the left fielder batted first (leadoff hitter OBP in parentheses):

• 2005: 140 (.338)
  
• 2006: 159 (.332)
  
• 2010: 147 (.333)
  
• 2011: 160 (.323)
  

And in 2011, in the two games where a left fielder didn't lead off, it's only because Juan Pierre was the DH.

However, having a set leadoff man didn't really help leadoff production. In the the two seasons where Guillen had to change course at the top of the order, he actually got a higher OBP out of the No. 1 spot -- .339 in 2008 and .340 in 2009. Getting enough production after the first option flopped could be a cause for optimism, but the lack of a true, everyday leadoff man prompted cause for concern instead.

(2007 doesn't count, because any season in which Andy Gonzalez leads off 10 times doesn't count. New rule.)

Basically, the White Sox have been happy to settle for less out of left field because the left fielder has been able to also play the not-real position of Leadoff Hitter. There's probably some value in that -- if a manager can pencil in the same Leadoff Hitter every day, it's one less question he and the team have to answer, because the media freaks out whenever a "non-prototypical" guy bats first. Then again, it's hard to figure out what the prototype even looks like when Pierre and Podsednik fit the bill, but Alejandro De Aza doesn't.

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We made it! After a long winter, the bats are going to crack and the mitts are going to pop. This offseason has seen some of the biggest names in baseball switch teams. Unfortunately the only one that involves the White Sox is Mark Buehrle leaving for the Marlins. Its alright though. Hope springs eternal. If enough things fall into place maybe the Sox can have a magical season. I thought they were going to be terrible heading into 2005 and then they won the World Series, so you never know.

Departures: Ozzie Guillen, Joey Cora, Greg Walker, Jeff Cox, Mark Buehrle, Sergio Santos, Jason Frasor, Tony Pena, Carlos Quentin, Juan Pierre, Ramon Castro, Donny Lucy, Omar Vizquel

Arrivals: Robin Ventura, Mark Parent, Jeff Manto, Joe McEwing, Nestor Molina, Simon Castro, Pedro Hernandez, Jose Quintana, Donnie Veal, Jhan Martinez, Osvaldo Martinez, Kosuke Fukudome, Dan Johnson

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Another day, another member of the White Sox coaching staff talking about how they knew their team was going to be flat in 2011 and didn't or couldn't do much to address it.

Oddly enough, Joe Cowley's column was the only the second-most worthwhile read about Greg Walker on Wednesday, unless these I'm-just-now-telling-you-I-knew-something-bad-was-going-to-happen-months-after-it-finished-happening tales do something for you.

Jerry Crasnick also talked with the former White Sox hitting coach, and since it focuses on his new job with the Atlanta Braves, it's a whole lot more useful.

I'm intrigued by hitting coaches, mostly because I really can't write about them with any certainty. I wonder just how certain teams are about hitting coaches when they hire them, given how they often get the ax when things go awry. Their existences seem mostly interchangeable, hinging on timing and whether a high-profile player can be considered a success story.

I have some notions about what Walker brought to and took off the table with the White Sox, but they're only notions. So I was glad to see him hook up with the Braves shortly after he parted ways with the Sox, because it's going to add some context to his time on the South Side, as well as some data to compare it to, even if conclusions can't be strongly drawn.

Crasnick's article is well-timed. Since it's right before spring training, we're catching Walker coming off a relationship that had grown stale, and right as he begins a new job with new bosses who are picking up what he's putting down.

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The Kosuke Fukudome signing makes so much sense that it's barely worth talking about. So watch me blaze through 10,000 words! In your face, obvious need-addressing transaction!

The Sox had an opening for a left-handed fourth-to-fifth outfielder with some major-league cred on the cheap, and in comes Fukudome, who will be making $1 million ($500,000 salary for 2012, $500,000 buyout on a $3.5 million club option for 2013). He's good enough to start for the duration of a typical DL stint, which is really the biggest concern for a team that will start unproven entities from left to right.

So it should work out. But if it doesn't, there's no overwhelming commitment to a $1 million may-as-well player. After all, $1 million is what the Sox paid Ben Davis after outrighting him to Charlotte before the 2005 season. Shrugging away $1 million can't stop a champion.

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In a profile of Jeff Manto, Mark Gonzales outlined the numerous tasks that lie ahead of the new White Sox hitting coach:

• Fix Adam Dunn
• Fix Alex Rios
• Fix Gordon Beckham
• Make sure Brent Morel doesn't take a step back.
• Don't disrupt Paul Konerko's delicate balance.

These are all very real issues, but there's one task that Gonzales didn't mention that should take precedent. He'll have to keep close watch on Dayan Viciedo, and the adjustments he has to make when pitchers find new ways to exploit his aggressiveness. In fact, I might rate Viciedo's progress as the most crucial development of 2012. Viciedo offers the prospect of above-average production for the league minimum his salary, and that's something the Sox have sorely lacked. If he can't deliver, it clouds the future of any next White Sox core.

So there's Viciedo. Let's assign Morel, too, since Manto oversaw Morel's brisk, steady climb through the minors. Otherwise, Manto arrives on the scene rather foreign to the current state of affairs.

He isn't daunted by the to-do list, at least outwardly:

"It's a great challenge," Manto said. "Sometimes you walk into a team where everything's fine, everybody's in good spirits and having good careers. But here, there is something to do."

There's a lot to do, and Manto should get ample time to show whether he's up for the task. He basically gets the benefit of the doubt thanks to the scientific method. Ozzie Guillen had a steadfast belief in his coaching staff and veteran players -- or a sheer reluctance to make anything that qualified as a difficult decision. Either way, what resulted was a formula with all constants and no variables.

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The new and possibly improved PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus came out Wednesday, and if you want to know how it works, Colin Wyers will explain to you using Adam Dunn as an example. If you're interested in the numbers, you can just look at Kyle's FanPost.

But if you're like me when you look at the spreadsheet, your eyes soon drift towards the comparable players column. Or, if you're Grant Brisbee, you seek it out immediately. They're fun to mull over no matter how fast you get there, because in many cases, it would be better for PECOTA if they were left unsaid.

Sometimes the comps are ridiculous on the surface, but you can at least draw a Hawk Harrelson STRETCH! connection, because, hey, Eduardo Escobar and Luis Aparicio are both diminutive Venezuelan shortstops. But then you get ones like ...

• Brent Morel: Andy Marte, Aramis Ramirez, Adrian Beltre
• Dallas McPherson: Harmon Killebrew, Mike Schmidt, Mike Hessman
  

And you get the idea that PECOTA isn't an intricate baseball projection system, but a high school student with senioritis mailing in a project ("Here are three third baseman. Can I graduate now?").

But amid the carnage, I did find four that ended up being somewhat profound upon some reflection.

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You may remember a post I wrote a month and a half ago that asked why Matt Thornton started throwing this ineffective 90-mph changeup for no good reason.

You may also remember that I had to amend the post, because PITCH f/x specialist Harry Pavlidis informed me that many of those pitches that FanGraphs classified as changeups were actually sliders -- they just weren't the sweepers he usually threw. No, these were thrown much harder, and with less movement. Neither pitch was particularly good, but there was a difference.

How did Harry know this? Because he spent the last four years (with some help from Lucas Apostoleris and others) tagging 3.2 million pitches tracked by PITCH f/x. Then, Dan Brooks at BrooksBaseball.net took that data, wrote a script, and presented it in the form of player cards featuring seasonal data with correctly tagged pitches, with a dozen ways to cut 'em up.

With this awesome tool, we can now look at Thornton's data again, and figure out when those super-speed sliders emerged and disappeared.

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Did you know the White Sox haven't produced a legitimate position player out of a first round draft pick since using the 35th pick of the 1998 draft on Aaron Rowand? Go ahead and look, I'll wait. Gross, right? There are multiple reasons why the farm system seems unable to produce anything but cannon fodder and former college QBs: we rarely if ever go over slot, we draft safer players with lower ceilings, injuries and washouts happen. Another key component may be that only once in the past twenty years have the White Sox had a top 10 draft pick. What players came from the previous four drafts? The drafts where the Sox picked fourth, seventh, tenth, and fifth? Alex Fernandez. Frank Thomas. Robin Ventura. Jack McDowell. Maybe this is why the eighth pick of the 2008 draft, Gordon Beckham, feels like such a bust to the fan base.

I'm pretty sure we're all at fault here, but no one really wants to take the blame: Kenny Williams, Ozzie Guillen, Greg Walker, us writers, Dan Johnson, and of course Gordon Beckham. For the first time since I was able to form memories, we had a shot at a true impact homegrown bat. A hitter worth following through the minors. Someone we could dream on. And so we started dreaming. And he didn't let us down. His lowest OPS in the minors was .862! He only batted under .300 at one level and only by .001! He was a doubles monster! And then we brought him up and he kept hitting. A 22 year old infielder with an .808 OPS! The stands were already full of his jerseys and shirts in July of 2009.

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