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So I'm reading Jon Heyman's latest piece on likely trade targets for contending teams, when I realize that the media is missing Kenny Williams' main objective yet again. Here's what he had to say.

White Sox: Their attempted trade for Jake Peavy made it clear that they're looking for an ace to swing the balance of power in a wide-open AL Central, which they've won two of the past four seasons. They recently scouted Roy Oswalt, but GM Ken Williams said publicly that they aren't in discussions regarding the Astros' ace. And one person familiar with their thinking explained that the White Sox weren't blown away by what they've seen from Oswalt recently. (That point may be moot since several reports suggest that Oswalt, who has a no-trade clause, wouldn't go to the South Side, anyway. While Oswalt's agent is in Chicago, the right-hander seems to prefer his hunting.) The guess is that the Indians wouldn't trade the White Sox Cliff Lee, either, narrowing the field further.

But here's the thing: The White Sox are not shopping for a half-season rental. Their rotation could be improved, no doubt. But Williams desire is not to mortgage the farm* for a run at a second straight AL Central crown. Williams is looking to make the '10, '11, & '12 clubs that will feature a host of young offensive talent better by acquiring another front-of-the-rotation under-contract arm which the Sox don't figure to produce from their farm in that time frame.

So yeah, the Sox have been looking for pitching, and will continue to do so as long as Williams is at the helm, but if the Sox are serious about getting better in the short term, looking at the rotation probably isn't the most efficient way to go.

*Larry relays Rick Hahn's assertion that mortgaging the farm might not be necessary as it once was to acquire certain players with extended contracts.

A 4th starter would be nice too

So those Michael Young rumors which seemed ludicrous at first suddenly have some substance to them as he has requested a trade after bristling at the idea of a position change. Young is a poor defensive SS, despite his recent Gold Glove win, and carries a prohibitively large contract.

If we're to believe Kenny Williams that the Sox are bumping up against their payroll ceiling, I don't think there's any reasonable way to make a payroll neutral trade for Young that will make the '09 club better. Nevertheless, with multiple outlets reporting on the Sox interest, and Williams propensity to surprise, I'm obligated to make a post about it.

After a sleepy two weeks over the holidays, baseball kicked back into off-season action Monday.

• Milton Bradley will reportedly sign with the Cubs despite the fact that they still reside in the National League.

  I really wanted to include the Choi Hoon cartoon which featured Angry Milton waving the bucket of balls over his head in every cell, but I couldn't find it. A half-hour of internet searching yields results. Hoon's cartoons can be found here.

• Unlike the perpetually angry and injured Bradley, Pat Burrell will switch leagues to take on a DH role with the Rays. The two contracts combine for a total of 5/$46M (about $9M per annum), compared to the $11.5M Jermaine Dye is owed this season. Burrell and Bradley share a similar skill set with JD, the offensive minded (if a bit more OBP-driven) corner outfielder who would be better off at DH for one reason or another. It doesn't take much insight to figure out why the Sox were unable to unload Jermaine Dye for any value.
• Kenny Williams, "through a spokesman," officially shot down the seemingly ludicrous Floyd-for-Roberts rumor.
• Scott Gregor pisses on the Jon Garland To Return campfire.

  You can pretty much forget about another free agent, Jon Garland, as long as Ozzie’s in the dugout. They never got along before Garland was traded to the Angels last off-season, so that bridge has been torched.

  But he does find time to bring up the names Freddy Garcia (maybe, because I think he'll be really cheap), Carl Pavano (No), and Paul Byrd (Yes, but that's only because [Starter Candidate 5] throws about as well as Terrelle Pryor) as possible bargain free agents for the not-quite-ready-for-prime-time Sox rotation.
• One name that I would rather bring in ahead of all of those options, Pedro Martinez, is the subject of some dubiously unsubstantiated rumors regarding the Sox, which I point to only because it's about time we had a rumor on the front page that I like. In reality, Pedro is contemplating offers from 4 teams, two in each league.

Baseball's Winter Meetings ended uneventfully for the White Sox. Oh sure, there was that extra $50K they got for losing Derek Rodriguez in the Rule 5 Draft, but only Jerry Reinsdorf and Larry care about that. The rest of us wonder what the White Sox will look like when they open camp in February. Will they make any more trades? Will they make a play in the free agent market? Where do the Sox go from here?

I've been asking myself the same question ever since the Swisher trade. And when the Vazquez trade didn't return any player who figures to make a significant impact on the Sox '09 roster, I had to sit back and wonder if the Sox were in a full-on Circuit City-style liquidation sale. It's only now, as the Sox leave the Winter Meetings without making a deal, having spent most of their time in Vegas waiting for the phone to ring, that I am finally starting to get a hold on what the Sox are looking to accomplish this off-season.

Those two trades removed about $17M from the Sox projected '09 payroll. We've heard Kenny say, "Right now, we're bumping up against our [payroll] limit," even after removing those salaries. How did that happen?

It's the economy, stupid. Or at least that's the excuse you'll hear out of most teams right now. The Sox have some other issues at work, however.

They've got $10M tied up in a pitcher who, in the rosiest of scenarios, won't play a game until after the All-Star Break. They've got another $3M committed to Mike MacDougal, who was removed from the 40-man roster and could have been taken by any team in yesterday's Rule 5 draft. And then there's that $5M payment for right to bolt Tucson in favor of the shorter bus rides in the valley. $18M in expenses that don't figure to contribute to wins in '09; I'm sure it's just a coincidence that the those two numbers come out so neatly.

I've got the Sox payroll commitments right now at about $86M, but that's due to grow as they offer arbitration to Bobby Jenks and Dewayne Wise Friday, and should end up around $95M if you fill out the rest of the lineup with near-minimum contracts.

I don't really understand why the Sox would bother to tender Wise an offer. He seems like a perfect non-tender candidate to me, as essentially a walking definition of a replacement-level player. But the Sox tend to reward these fringy types with major league contracts (see: Ozuna, Pablo or Perez, Timo). I no longer have the will to argue about it anymore. I just accept that there will be $1M handed to a guy who should be the 26th man.

While we've all be trying to read between the lines, and waited for the next big salary to drop, it appears as though Williams has been speaking the slightly-varnished truth when meeting with reporters. He says he's trying to put the best team he can on the field, while remaining under that budget ceiling, but like he did in the '06-'07 off-season he's also focused on continuing to stock an under-productive farm system with some near-ready, high upside talent. That off-season brought the Sox John Danks and Gavin Floyd, but neither was ready to contribute to contender in '07, and the Sox had their worst record since the early 80's.

Now that Jermaine Dye has been dangled to numerous clubs for young pitching, with little interest, and the Sox linked to his replacement, it's time to question those first two salary-dumping trades.

In the Vazquez deal, it seems as though Williams passed on a young starter (presumably Jo-Jo Reyes or Charlie Morton) at the urging of his scouts, under the impression that he could move Dye to fill his young starter needs. But all of the players in that deal (even Lollipopguild) seem to have some upside. Which brings us back to the Swisher deal; why was it necessary to pull the trigger so quickly? for such a meager return? Why not hold out for the highest bidder at the meetings? Are we honestly supposed to believe that [Starter Candidate 5] is capable of stepping into the rotation as Danks did in '07? What happpens when he proves to be more like '07 Floyd? or worse?

If the Sox are unable to move Dye for young pitching, they might have to explore the free agent pitching market, hoping one of the dispatched '05 starters, or some other damaged goods (Pedro, Penny et al) are seeking a 1-year deal to rebuild their reputation. And even that option may force them to trim payroll elsewhere (Read: Bobby Jenks).

The Sox roster is far from complete. We'll just have to sit back and wait, and make fun of hoodie, to pass the time.

The first two days of the Winter Meetings were pretty boring, even as the predictable big money deals rolled in (K-Rod to the Mets, CC to the Yankees). But things started to pick up late Wednesday. Most notably, (from the White Sox perspective) the Tigers and Indians made a couple of trades; the Tigers sending Matt Joyce to the Rays for Edwin Jackson and the Indians getting caught up in a 3-way trade with the Mets and Mariners centering around J.J. Putz.

These two trades should have an effect not just on the Sox '09 season, but on their off-season too. Yesterday afternoon, Wiz linked to a CBS blog that put the rest of the Sox off-season quite succinctly.

The White Sox still want to add a starting pitcher this winter, but what kind of pitcher they can get depends on whether they're able to trade outfielder Jermaine Dye.

The writer seems to think the Sox want to be active in the free agent starting pitching market, but I'd say given their rumored demands for Dye that they are more likely to be looking to get a young starter in return for Dye, and replace his production via free agency.

The Rays and Jackson were one of the rumored destination and targets in the Jermaine Dye rumors, which seemingly removes a suitor. Amazingly, all 5 AL Central teams were looking to move a corner outfielder at the meetings; Jermaine Dye (White Sox), Matt Joyce (Tigers), Franklin Guitierrez (Indians), Delmon Young (Twins), Jose Guillen and Mark Teahen (Royals) have all been involved in the rumor mill, which, along with a saturated corner OF/DH free agent market, makes for a relatively light demand for Dye in a trade.

The Indians moved Franklin Gutierrez in their massive trade with the M's & Mets, and should complete their deal with Kerry Wood sometime Thursday, which leaves only one marquee closer on the free agent market.

Seeing as the market for Dye, while noisy, is tepid at best, and with possibly all attractive closer candidates off the market by the weekend, the Sox may shift their focus to using Bobby Jenks as a trade piece. The Mariners just received a haul for Putz (and two fringe major leaguers), and if Brian Fuentes is snatched up by a team like the Angels, the Sox might find themselves holding quite a valuable commodity. I don't want to speculate here, but lets just say I can see the Sox improving themselves significantly if they play their hand right.

I thought about writing an FJM style entry Saturday dissecting Phil Rogers' latest column on leadoff men, but decided I had better things to do with my Saturday night. I then ran across three more Chicago-based articles on Sunday which referenced Williams' conference call non-denial of a question regarding Jerry Owens. I had to post something.

But just as I was setting out to write a post titled "Leadoff Man Bukkake," the Jermaine Dye non-news broke, distracting me for a good 90 minutes. So, there will be no impotence or Viagra references in this post. Sorry.

I do have to ask why our local beat writers assume Jerry Owens is your 2009 CFer and defacto leadoff man while Chris Getz, who outperformed Owens on the same Charlotte squad, is in a competition for the second base job and penciled into the 9th spot on the extremely premature '09 White Sox lineup. What is it about Owens skills at age 28 that suggests he's any better than the discarded Willy Harris? Why does the local media think leadoff hitter is a position, and not simply the first man penciled into the lineup?

Anyway, the winter meetings start today in Vegas, and rumors are due to start tricking in any minute now, so use the comments to do what you do...

Scanning Google Reader -- Suck it, Bloglines! -- over the past 24 hours, I came across a couple of related entries from two completely different type of sites. I thought about posting them separately as FanShots, but I thought they combined to frame a more robust discussion about the baseball rumor landscape.

In the first, Will Carrol, of Pete Rose reinstated and Washington Grays fame, as well as Baseball Prospectus' Under The Knife, recently announced that he would not be participating in the rumor mongering during the upcoming winter meetings (Dec. 8-11th). Not that I really care; as he says, the market is saturated with plenty of hard-working journos (both Carrol and Aaron Gleeman cite Ken Rosenthal in particular). No, I'm linking to his resignation from the rumor game because of the numbers he cites about the rumors themselves.

Paul DePodesta wrote that 25% of rumors have any basis in fact. I spoke with Andrew Friedman earlier this year and he gave a slightly higher number. I’d say that the number is higher still, probably about 50%. There’s some nugget of truth, some overheard conversation or leak, some good source talking out of school in — just a guess — half. About 25% is chatter - secondary things that aren’t quite right, people talking about things that never quite get to the real talking stage. I can remember a team saying they liked a guy and then a couple weeks later, that guy was in a trade rumor involving the team. It didn’t happen, but someone filled in the gap with something plausible. Not right, but not entirely wrong.

About 10% beyond that is trial balloons. They aren’t facts, but agents and teams like to get stuff out there and it’s useful to some extent, assuming you can pick apart the layers of anonymity. I’d argue there’s real value here in that it helps create action. In Moneyball, Peter Gammons was shown to be a go-between, an information clearinghouse for what teams were trying to do and there’s unquestionably a value there.

It’s the other 15% that’s worrisome. It’s the whole cloth, puff of smoke lies that throw everything off and give the whole process a bad name. I’ll split that into half "good" and half "evil" — the good smoke is just talking points, people throwing ideas on the wall and covering them in a thin candy shell of credibility. The evil smoke is designed to do something, to create action or in most cases, just attention. These seldom hold up very long, but they’re out there and worse, there’s some big name people that do this far too often, likely under pressure of deadline or an editor telling them to produce something.

The second comes from Gawker, the New York and media centric mega-blog, which uses the recent news that David Gregory will (read: may) take over at Meet The Press as a backdrop for a discussion on rumors and journalism on the internet.

In classic journalism, rumors had to be double-sourced before, say, a newspaper would run with them. So you get a tip, then you have to find some other person who would know to agree with it. That person should not be the original tipster. Pretty simple.

But everything is new and different now! Online "news" outlets are not all as professional as we are around here. Rumors pop up everywhere online, all the time. But here's the key difference between now and the old days: if a rumor is reported online, people tend to treat it as a rumor until it's reported somewhere else. Then, two places have it up separately, and ta-da! It's the internet version of double-sourcing. It doesn't necessarily require any enterprise on the part of lazier blogs—just wait until two places report it, and it's gold! No actual sources necessary!

How do the two relate? Well, without truly knowing the ins-and-outs--I'm just a blogger, remember--I'd argue that there is no Two-Scource-Rule for a baseball rumor. If it's whispered and can pass the smell test, it'll probably be written about, or at least re-whispered on the radio. But I'd also argue that we, as semi-functional basement-dwellers, have formed something of our own Two-Source-Rule. Take the Jermaine Dye Rumors, for instance.

Dye has been mentioned in regards to numerous teams, but the rumor that seems to have taken hold involves the Reds. Why? Because it's been written about by different outlets--Some Cinci radio station (not WKRP), The Enquirer, ChiSox.com, and the Trib--though all seem to be using a similar source, pointing back at the first source and adding Jockety's non-denial. So now it's a super-duper, 4-star, rhodium-plated rumor, because it has multiple sources....

And, I'll end that discussion there--even though I had more to say--because the Best-In-The-Business has a Hot-Off-The-Stove rumor for us.

The Braves, moving to address their starting pitching needs, are in serious discussions with the White Sox about a trade for right-hander Javier Vazquez, according to major-league sources.

The White Sox would receive as many three players in return. Left-hander Jo-Jo Reyes and infielder Brent Lillibridge are among the names under discussion, sources said.

[Update by The Cheat, 12/02/08 5:04 PM CST]: The opening line of Rosenthal's article now reads "The Braves, moving to address their starting pitching needs, are on the verge of acquiring right-hander Javier Vazquez from the White Sox, according to major-league sources." (emphasis added is mine)

[Update by The Cheat, 12/02/08 6:05 PM CST]: Rosenthal now says it's done pending physicals. Announcement Wednesday or Thursday. Players departing: Vazquez and Boone Logan. Players arriving: Brent Lillibridge (short, fast, scrappy, middle infielder with a hole in his swing), a young starter thought to be Charlie Morton (mediocre, uninspiring back-of-the-rotation candidate) and possibly Tyler Flowers (Power and plate discipline catcher, who just destroyed the AFL, but needs work behind the plate).

Last week we pointed to a report stating the Sox were shopping Jermaine Dye to the Reds, looking for a young pitcher (and more) in return, and were looking to trim some payroll. Baseball essentially shut down over the Thanksgiving holiday, and there won't be any real news until teams make their arbitration offers official sometime Monday, so here's some stale news.

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says that Dye is a fit for a number of teams, but they seem put off by the price.

The White Sox right fielder fits so well with a few teams, including Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and the Mets. The Rays are trying to deal the back of their starting rotation - Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson - for a power-hitting righthanded bat, but the White Sox would want more.

John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer gets Reds GM Walt Jockety to issue a non-denial about the Dye talks.

As for talk that the Reds could be interested in outfielder Jermaine Dye, whom the Chicago White Sox are reported to be shopping, Jocketty said:

"I'm not going to comment. But we have talked to the White Sox about some players. Nothing is close."

The way tampering rules work, Jocketty cannot say he's pursuing Dye. But in the case of San Diego shortstop Khalil Greene, Jocketty was comfortable shooting down the rumor.

And finally, Mark Gonzales acknowledges the reports adding a couple more names to the fray.

The teams appear to be a match because the Reds are looking for a right-handed hitter to go with young left-handed hitters Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, and the Reds have a wealth of talented pitchers, including Homer Bailey, Josh Roenicke and Matt Maloney.

Of course, here I am writing about it without much to add. I will add that if the Sox are going to trade Dye for the proposed packages, I see it as the first of a series of moves. They can't go into another season with one-and-a-half outfielders. And now Jerry Owens can go about dominating the third consecutive thread here. Paradoxically, it will be the first time he's ever dominated anything three consecutive times.