Building a Champion: Aaron Rowand

by The Cheat on Oct 31, 2005 7:33 PM CST in White Sox News

Part of a Series

Aaron Rowand was drafted in the (supplemental) first round out of Cal State Fullerton in 1998. At the time, he was projected as more of a corner outfielder. His minor league numbers were good, but not great. His most impressive skill seemed to be his power, averaging about 20 HRs per 500 ABs. He excelled at nothing, but was a very good all-around player. He never quite blossomed into a top prospect, though BA did rank him as high as #2 in the Sox system.

In 2001, he began play for the White Sox as a 4th outfielder. He was used mostly as defensive replacement for Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Lee, though he did receive 29 starts in center field. Jerry Manuel viewed Rowand as his best defensive outfielder, though not much of a threat at the plate, despite his .293/.385/.431 batting line.

2002 saw Rowand again being the team's 4th outfielder. This time to Kenny Lofton. When the Sox faded, Lofton was traded, and Rowand saw his first full-time action in CF. He was disappointing, batting just .258/.298/.394 in 300 ABs, but showed a very underrated glove.

Rowand had a motocross accident following the 2002 season. He was supposed to be rehabbed enough to be the starting center fielder in 2003, but it was clear after one month of .140/.210/.175 ball that this was not the case. Rowand rehabbed in AAA, and posted a .381/.408/.629 line for the Sox the rest of the season. Carl Everett was brought in to be the Sox center fielder just as Rowand had heated back up, limiting his at-bats the remainder of the year.

2004 was the first year that Rowand had the starting center field job from the start of the season, had the support of his manager, and was completely healthy, concurrently. The result was a career year (.310/.361/.544) that nobody saw coming. Rowand signed a 2-year deal, with an option for a third, following his 2004 breakout campaign.

2005 was more about Rowand's defense than anything. Despite hitting just .270/.329/.407 Rowand almost matched his 2004 WARP total(6.9 in '04 to 6.0 in '05) by increasing his defensive prowess.

Between 2000 and when Rowand took over full-time duties in CF in 2004, the Sox employed Chris Singleton, Jose Valentin, Kenny Lofton, and Carl Everett, as the main options in center. Brian N. Anderson and Chris ? Young look like solid replacements for Rowand in the future. -- I think that Anderson can match Rowand's '05 season (both offensively and defensively) in '06, and this offseason, which both Boston and NYY need CFers, would be the perfect time to move him.

* * * * *

2005 Season Highlights: New York, New York | Tasting Wall vs. Sexson | 3-run HR off Hoffman

2005 Postseason Highlights: ??? nothing really stood out. He scored some key runs, but the plays I really remember were the baserunning blunders.

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Comments

Rowand

I know it makes sense to trade him, but I still don't want to. Great Defense in CF is so important and he is only a year removed from being in the top 10 in the AL in Slugging. It is also very risky to bank on a prospect stepping up.

AIM: shaftr01

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by shaftr on Oct 31, 2005 10:22 PM CST reply actions

I agree

Rowand's hitting numbers weren't great this year, but his hitting potential is there. Plus, I'd hate to trade him to the Yankees after they salivated over him during the New York series.

It's hard to see how the prospects will perform, since they've not really played much this year. Saying that Anderson or Young will easily match Rowand's defensive play belittles his great defensive year. But, in reality, defense plays only a limited part in overall contribution.

bkool

by bkool on Oct 31, 2005 10:37 PM CST up reply actions

Lofton

he really is a damn good player.

AIM: shaftr01

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by shaftr on Oct 31, 2005 10:44 PM CST reply actions

Trading Rowand

I agree about Rowand. I think he is one of the most expendable players on the roster, and we could get something substantial in a package involving him because of his perceived value, which is probably a lot higher than his actual value. Chris Young today, from what I hear, is probably about equal to Rowand and Anderson aint no slouch either. Rowand should go for the right price, and considering the dearth of CFs out there, he just might fetch a high price from the loser of the Johnny Damon Sweepstakes.

by MRKARNO on Oct 31, 2005 10:57 PM CST reply actions

I agree, Karno.

But it works the same way with Anderson -- if he's in a higher demand (I can see a team like Arizona wanting the hometown kid, then again, maybe not, with the new saber GM), then I'd certainly deal him as well.

This is a big year for Sweeney. I've heard that he had wrist trouble, so he gets the benefit of the doubt (for the lack of power). All things considered, he had a pretty solid year -- but, I want to see a little better than 26 xtra base-hits.

Now that Epstein is out in Boston, I'm pretty sure that the likelihood of Manny getting traded just went up -- a lot. If Sabean becomes the GM (he's a name that has come up), and they can't come to terms with Damon, maybe we can shuffle Podsednik or Rowand their way (in a package) for Ramirez? Afterall, stolen bases >>>>>>> homers... ; )

by CWSKeith on Oct 31, 2005 11:28 PM CST reply actions

personally

I like Sweeney better than Anderson. I think Power develops more so than plate discipline.

AIM: shaftr01

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by shaftr on Oct 31, 2005 11:41 PM CST up reply actions

What is Rowand's trade value really?

I doubt it's that high, owing to his quesionable offensive year. Having watched him, I think Sox fans typically agree that Rowand has a ton of upside still, perhaps a breakout year next year. He is not positioned that well to optimize his value for the club in terms of a trade.

I agree with previous posts that opined that Podsednik is better situated for a trade, owing to a cconsensus that he is NOT about to break out (already has) and, at 29, is moving towards the age when speedsters typically lose a step. Plus,he did some ridiculous things in the playoffs to increase his value.

Now, I can't say whether Pods would fetch more than Rowand on the market. But for the Sox, I think that CF is best manned by Rowand, while I certainly feel comfortable with Brian N. Anderson in LF. As such, addressing some bullpen issues by trading Pods (Hermanson? Vizcaino?) would be preferable to trading Rowand.

by spengler on Oct 31, 2005 11:30 PM CST reply actions

That's a good point

Even in the ZiPS projections, Sweeney is in the lower third of hitters in K's. I didn't take the time to calculate each one, but I'd also guess that he has one of the better K/BB ratios on the team.

If he develops that power, he's going to be one helluva player. He seems like he's got a real good grasp of the strike-zone. Those who've seen him live said his swing is very sweet, too.

by CWSKeith on Oct 31, 2005 11:47 PM CST reply actions

Question:

Why trade Rowand when he is coming off a down year at the plate? It's relatively likely that his defensive improvement will stick (according to BP, players seem to retain a lot more of large unexpected improvements in defensive performance than offensive performance or pitching), and add a year somewhere between 2004 and 2005 to the mix? That's a pretty nice player to move.

As for Anderson, don't count on a rookie--especially one with marginal K/BB numbers. And in any event, given the uncertainty at 1B and DH, there's going to be a way to get Dye his ABs and still make room for a young OFer.

And all of this doesn't even address Rowand's status as one of the big team guys. Look at how Crede and Anderson follow him around like puppy dogs. Watch him interact with Pods, Buehrle and A.J. I wouldn't be surprised if you threw a wrench into the team chemistry if you traded Aaron.

I'm not sure that you really do much to this team. Adding a full season of McCarthy and "Ace" Contreras will improve the starting pitching. Hopefully the bullpen won't regress too much, given the loss of Takatsu and the addition of Jenks (and hopefully more innings for Cotts and Politte). Re-sign Konerko. Replace Everett's bat with someone that can actually hit (whether it is Thomas or Durazo), throw in a little improvement from Rowand, Crede and Uribe, and I think the offense is a little better. The team won't win 99 games again, but 92-94 isn't out of the question.

by BridgeportJoe on Nov 1, 2005 10:26 AM CST reply actions

I think your thoughts track mine

Just make sure we keep the pitching staff intact.

Otherwise, all this talk of Durazo is interesting. He went to high school here in town, and I followed his rise with the D-backs pretty carefully. I've always liked the guy, but damn, if you really had to look for a guy who is actually slower than Konerko... well, here he is.

by spengler on Nov 1, 2005 12:31 PM CST up reply actions

WIll the Yankees (Red SoX) over pay?

If so, you move him otherwise you sit tight for a year

I still don't think they have enough hitting to win in the playoffs

by dyspeptic on Nov 1, 2005 1:06 PM CST reply actions

Only for a steal

Certainly, right on the money.

If you can get a good deal for Rowand I think you have to take it. You certainly can't count on getting the same kind of luck next year and he's not untouchable.

That said, he's a hard-nosed player who typifies the White Sox style. Unless you are getting an absolute steal in the deal (which I think could be a possibility, he is a quality CF when there is not really an abundance of them), you've got to keep him around. I don't think he'll improve any offensively from this season, that .310 season was likely an aberration, but he plays hard and is fairly consistent.

All in all, I think that Roward is expendable for the right price, but you also could do a lot worse in CF.

by moeandhobbes on Nov 1, 2005 4:06 PM CST up reply actions