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16 days

16 days, 16 freakin days. That's how long the 'Brandon McCarthy in the White Sox starting rotation' era lasted. December 6 to December 23, 2006. And I was so looking forward to much more of it...

OK, let's forget for a moment on whether or not it was a smart trade (I think it was the biggest mistake in Kenny's tenure as GM) and let's look on the return the Sox got. Do you think the Rangers or the Sox got the better part of it or that the exchange was about fair? I personally think Jon Daniels executed baseball's biggest heist of the last couple years. He took Kenny Williams to school. Looking at the Baseball Musings B-Mac's log I see that after his first brief stay with the Sox, once he changed his delivery B-Mac had a 1.72 ERA in his 7 starts (8ERs in 41 2/3 IP). Well, there simply is no way you trade a 23 year old pitcher with a 1.72 ERA in his starts for a prospect and a rookie reliever. A prospect! As in not having thrown a pitch in the majors yet. What do you think Brian Cashman would've gotten in exchange? The guy got 3 pitching prospects for 1 year of a 38 year old bat recovering from wrist surgery for pete's sake.

I know, many will dismiss the 1.72 ERA argument and instead focus on his overall 4.39 ERA and on his tendencies to give up the long ball. I don't. B-Mac is a starting pitcher. In his minor league carrer he had a 3.39 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP while having a 0.84 HR9 rate. If you have an ERA in the threes I don't care how these 3 runs are scored.

With someone like B-Mac you are have a sure #3 pitcher with potential to be a #1. Well, the sample size is small you say. I don't care. You focus on the positives. It is what it is. What's Danks' sample size? A big fat zero.

Others will say Kenny has a proven track record and has brought the 1st World Series in the South Side in 88 years. Well, if B-Mac and the Count didn't have those dominating starts in the 2nd half of 2005 we wouldn't even have sniffed the playofs in 2005. And how was B-Mac rewarded for his contributions? By ... Anyway, that's getting into the smartness of the trade and I said I won't go there. The purpose of this post was to discuss the size of the return in B-Mac's trade. What do you think of the return Kenny got?

BTW, Let me wish you Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays. May santa drop a LFer on the South Side in the new year!

SouthSideSox is a community driven site. As such, users are able to express their thoughts and opinions in a FanPost, such as this one, which represents the views of this particular fan, but not necessarily the entire community or SouthSideSox editors.

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I agree with you...
I'll admit that I'm not a scout, the Sox organization knows a lot more about baseball than I do, etc.

That being said, I'm very underwhelmed by Danks, Masset, and Rasner's numbers. How about just one time trading for pitcher that isn't a project? That doesn't have to magicallly find his control? The Sox had that in McCarthy. Screw his numbers out of the bullpen last year. He was already a plus starter in the AL. Not many pitchers pull off the transition from AAA to the bigs nearly as well. In my book, McCarthy wasn't nearly the question mark that Danks is.  

I wouldn't be against trading McCarthy, but only for more than this.

I know people will laud KW's stockpiling of young arms, but I think it's not a good strategy. There's a good chance that, like the famed 2001 pitching heavy draft, that none of Floyd, Gonzalez, Sisco, Masset, Rassner, or Danks ever makes an impact in the major leagues. Every move so far has weakened the Sox in 2007 and none of pitchers they gotten are in the Hughes/Pelfrey/Sanchez echelon. Look at Danks 2007 ZIPS projection. It's not good.  

Bringing up Cashman is spot on -- he pulled off a better haul for gimpy, gripey, pricey Gary Sheffield.

Anyway, I don't think KW is a bad GM. But this was a bad trade. I'm people will say I'm overvaluing McCarthy, but the Sox just traded arguably their most valuable player for a prospect who might turn out to be as good as McCarthy and a middle relief prospect. I'm unimpressed.

by hitlesswonder on Dec 25, 2006 4:20 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

What exactly did McCarthy do to become
the organization MVP, exactly? I haven't seen this kind of love affair with a guy who hasn't done much since...well, ever.
Viking God, Bears Fan

by Toonderstrook on Dec 25, 2006 5:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What have Danks and Masset done?
They've done less than McCarthy and won't be major league ready in 2007. And Masset is a minor league relief prospect that no one had heard of till he started getting hyped in the last couple months. He could easily be a creation of the Texas marketing people.

As for McCarthy, I do think he was the most valuable player the Sox could trade. He's a pre-arb pitcher with success at every level and projects to a 4.78 ERA acording to ZIPS. He's like a league average starting pitcher, at worst, that costs no money and is under control till 2012. Sure, Thome, Dye, and others are better players but from the standpoint of money/years/expected performance/positional importance I think BMac was #1. Notice that nowhere did I say the Sox gave up a surefire Cy Young or anything like that.

 

by hitlesswonder on Dec 25, 2006 5:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Misunderstood.
Your original post didn't say most valuable bargaining chip. It said "most valuable player." And last year (I know, I know, he's a starter...not a reliever) the people he was most valuable to were people in the left field seats who wanted souvenir gopher balls.

I'm not sure what Danks or Masset are going to do. Danks may never pitch an inning in the bigs. That's never been my point. I just don't get why people are treating this like we just traded away a 21-year old Doc Gooden. I can't even recall anybody on here cogently arguing that McCarthy was ever going to be anything but a solid middle of the rotation starter until now.

Viking God, Bears Fan

by Toonderstrook on Dec 25, 2006 5:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

we're already annointing this
the worst mistake by KW? do we really have that short of a memory on here or are we just getting carried away with the hyperbole? todd ritchie, anyone?

we know you don't like the trade. let's stick a little closer to the ground, though. when danks posts a 6+ ERA during his only season for the sox and BMac goes on to, well, whatever accolades one gets for being a slightly above average league starter, then we can start ranking this trade so low.

at least hitlesswonder prefaces his rather amusing assertion that BMac is/was our "most valuable player" with "arguably."

by larry on Dec 25, 2006 5:06 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

"most valuable"..phrased poorly...
I meant it in terms of a tradeable asset. I tried to clarify above that I was thinking in terms of contract status, expected performance, etc. It's probably still a pretty idiosyncratic view.

Anyway, larry, I have to say that I really enjoy your posts as they always give me hope that my pessimism is misplaced. Have you heard anything about Rassner?

Merry Christmas :)

by hitlesswonder on Dec 25, 2006 5:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i try to stay sunshine, sunshine
rasner is pretty much junk. 7th round pick in '05. hasn't shown much in rookie or low A. i actually saw him pitch against kane county this year. however, i have little recollection of his performance; i only know i saw him because i looked at the program. just another underwhelming guy who will pitch in the minors for a few years before becoming a high school coach.

by larry on Dec 25, 2006 5:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ha
I was lucky enough to play for a former farmhand in high school myself.  Our coach was Scott Kelly, former catching great for Ferris State in MI, he still holds a few team and league records.  He burned out his talent on booze and drugs (ironically he now heads a drug counseling center in N. MI), but Kelly still managed to hang around pro ball for a few years after college, he never had any real shot of being anything more than a low-level minor league hanger-on, but he was a great coach at the high school level.

by madvillian on Dec 25, 2006 7:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

oh
and merry christmas to you and everyone else.

by larry on Dec 25, 2006 5:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Jeez
First off, great job posting on X-Mas.  We are all way too obsessed with baseball, but hey, there are worse things.

But I just disagree with the arguments.  I don't think they hold any water.

You argued that Danks' stats don't impress you much, however, As Keith has noted many, many times: Danks' stats are more impressive when you consider he was playing in hitters' leagues and that he was pitching against players much, much older than he was.

Control can be learned and improved, but as a 20 year old in AAA, in a tough league, he struck out over a batter an inning.  That's pretty impressive.  Is Danks the second coming?  No, but he's a very good prospect, easily the best in the Rangers entire organization.  He's left handed to boot, and has no major league service time.  

That's good value right there.  Then, there is Massett.  Massett possesses great stuff out of the bullpen and will help the Sox, either out of the front of the pen, or as trade bait.

The other players aren't really worth discussing at this point, maybe they will amount to something, but at this point they are all afterthoughts and long shots.

As for McCarthy himself, I think you're giving him too much credit.  He dominated the minors and pitched well for a stretch in 2005 when the Sox really needed it.  But it was a small sample size, no more meaningful than Scott Podsednik's World Series heroics.  He hasn't proved over the course of a 30-35 start season that he can be a good pitcher.  He stunk out of the Bullpen last year, and I don't buy the "well he's a starter".  Pitchers are pitchers are pitchers.  If anything, he should have pitched better out of the pen, as he wasn't facing guys more than once a game and presumably was pitching almost fully rested most of the time.

Don't get me wrong, he's a good player, I'd peg him for an ERA+ of around 110 to 125 for the next 10 years, barring unforeseen injury.

This move makes the Sox worse in 2007, but only slightly so, and if they can parlay Danks or Massett into outfield help the trade will end up helping in 2007.

But if they keep Massett and Danks I think the Sox win this trade as soon as 2008 and possibly every year down the road.  Danks has no service time and is a lefty, if he blossoms into a good pitcher he'll have even more value than BMAC.

KW saw a chance to make a pure talent for talent swap, he thought he was getting more talent than he was giving up, even if it didn't immediately fill a need on the MLB roster.  It's silly to say the trade didn't fill any needs, because the Sox needed young arms desperately, thanks to some wheeling and dealing this offseason that need has been eliminated.  

I don't buy the argument that he could have gotten more for Brandon and that is was prudent to hold out for more, possibly even waiting until mid-season.  Quite a bit could go wrong with that thinking, including an injury that would render him useless as a trading piece, or maybe even poor performance that would lower his value.

His value was high this offseason, possibly not as high as it will be a few months down the road, but KW deemed that a risk (think of the logic behind "pot odds" in poker) that wasn't worth taking.

I like the trade; I think I've articulated why.  I can see the other POV however.

by madvillian on Dec 25, 2006 5:22 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

a few points
You argued that Danks' stats don't impress you much, however, As Keith has noted many, many times...

I just said his sample size is zero
I think he's a good pitcher with the potential to do more in the majors
I just don't think he and masset were adequate return

Control can be learned and improved,

exactly! it can be learned, it also can't,
that's one thing the minors are for like larry said but it's no sure thing

but as a 20 year old in AAA, in a tough league, he struck out over a batter an inning.

danks 9.27 K9
bmac 10.26 K9

yes, I know that's 'in a hitters park'
I just wanted to point out that bmac had K's too

As for McCarthy himself, I think you're giving him too much credit. He dominated the minors and pitched well for a stretch in 2005 when the Sox really needed it. But it was a small sample size, no more meaningful than Scott Podsednik's World Series heroics. He hasn't proved over the course of a 30-35 start season that he can be a good pitcher.

yes, he wasn't given the chance
all we have is his 7 start sample

He stunk out of the Bullpen last year,

no, he was bad
politte sucked

and I don't buy the "well he's a starter". Pitchers are pitchers are pitchers. If anything, he should have pitched better out of the pen, as he wasn't facing guys more than once a game and presumably was pitching almost fully rested most of the time.

big disagreement here
a reliever doesn't have the chance to go through the same preparation a starter does
a reliever enters with guys on usually, has to get guys out, may have to alter his pitching selection, doesn't have room to throw pitches to "bait" the hitter etc.

This move makes the Sox worse in 2007, but only slightly so, and if they can parlay Danks or Massett into outfield help the trade will end up helping in 2007.

if they wanted outfield help why not trade bmac to the rays for crawford?
I don't see how a collection of guys with control problems is more valuable to the rays

But if they keep Massett and Danks I think the Sox win this trade as soon as 2008 and possibly every year down the road. Danks has no service time and is a lefty, if he blossoms into a good pitcher he'll have even more value than BMAC.

yes, no doubt the sox can end up the winners
I just think they could've gotten more

I don't buy the argument that he could have gotten more for Brandon and that is was prudent to hold out for more, possibly even waiting until mid-season.

are you kidding me?
colorado got a lefty with era's in the two's in 05 and 06 in AA/AAA plus another young pitcher (who I don't like but has potential) plus a young CFer for 1 year of jason jennigs
cashman got ... well you know

Quite a bit could go wrong with that thinking, including an injury that would render him useless as a trading piece, or maybe even poor performance that would lower his value.

ehh, an injury can happen to every baseball player

HEY THIS IS JI
JIM THOME
THE PEORIA POUNDER

by The Wizard on Dec 25, 2006 7:32 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Nice misquote
He stunk out of the Bullpen last year,

no, he was bad
politte sucked

Wizard, tell me how you differentiate "stunk" from "bad"?  He didn't say he "sucked", he said he "stunk".  You're getting into semantics, but if it helps your ranting, I suppose that's cool.

I might try and put a post up tomorrow if Cheat doesn't put one up first.

by CWSKeith on Dec 26, 2006 1:08 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I apologize for that, honestly I didn't do it
intentionally

in my mind 'he stunk' was similar to 'he sucked'
I'm sorry for that

HEY THIS IS JI
JIM THOME
THE PEORIA POUNDER

by The Wizard on Dec 26, 2006 11:09 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Danks
The impressive thing about Danks is how he improves every year.  Take a look how he starts out every level (poorly) and what he does once he adjusts to the new level (very, very well).  I think he'll get into the show early and struggle for his first half year, then turn into a very, very good left handed starter.
AIM: shaftr01

XBL: TheMattressMan

by shaftr on Dec 25, 2006 5:39 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Since this trade was made ...
I have believed it was a good trade.  I won't repeat what madvillian and shaftr stated above - I'll simply say I agree with them and add a few other factors to be considered.

First, when looking at Danks efforts one must keep in mind that he has always been among the youngest players in his respective league.  Yet he has shown at every level the ability to perform better against players that are older, physically more mature and generally more experienced then him.

Second, this trade (like any trade) should be viewed as part of a series of moves including trades, roster moves, free agent signings, etc.  When these transactions are looked as a whole do the White Sox have as good or better chance to make the playoffs in 2007 then they did last year?  Is the team in a better position in 2008 and beyond as it would be if they hadn't made those moves?  I am confident that the White Sox are in a better position in 2008 and beyond ... I believe the White Sox are have as good a chance in 2007 - but believe their chances will get better when Kenny completes another move or two.

Finally, Masset is the real deal.  He has all the tools ... although he did not come around as fast as Danks.  Under Coop's tutelage, he will blossom.

This is not a knock on BMac.  I appreciate what he did for the White Sox and hope he does well whenever he is pitching against anybody but the White Sox.  I just truly believe that Danks will prove to be a better pitcher the BMac and that Nasset will also be a real asset.  

by Jim in Maine on Dec 25, 2006 7:18 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Too much hyperbole
I agree that KW probably could've gotten more for B-Mac (maybe) but I think that it helps to think of this in economic terms.  The moves that the Sox have made this offseason have added a ridiculous amount of value to the system.
So it really doesn't matter all that much whether or not these prospects pitch in the major leagues at all if they can be used as trade bait or as backup plans.
I think that looking at the outcomes of the trades this offseason, it's pretty obvious that KW has added alot more value than he's lost.
I loved McCarthy... but he was a prospect.  Without any statistically significant major league time, he's a prospect just like Danks and Floyd.

by generico12 on Dec 25, 2006 9:17 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

McCarthy versus Floyd and Danks
I have to disagree. McCarthy is a much surer bet to do something worthwhile in the majors than Floyd. McCarthy outperformed Floyd at every level of minor league ball, is younger, and has a major league ERA around 4.60 or soemthing in 150 innings while Floyd has soemthing like 6.50 in 100 innings. They are not equivalent players and the trades they were in tell you as much.

McCarthy and Danks seem pretty comparable stats-wise. Except that McCarthy has demonstrated the ability to get out major league hitters in his 150 innings. Danks hasn't done that yet, and the leap from AAA to the bigs is large.

by hitlesswonder on Dec 25, 2006 9:45 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Rangers blogger here
I thought I'd come over and offer a few thoughts.

You guys will really like Danks, I think.  He's been the poster boy for the Rangers "develop pitching" scheme for the past few years, the one guy who was considered probably untouchable.

Danks was one of the top two prospects in the Ranger system (Eric Hurley is the other, and there was no consensus as to which should be more highly ranked).  Great curve, good fastball in the 89-92 mph range, developing changeup.  Folks say he's off the chart in terms of makeup, character, etc.  Reportedly a very intelligent kid who makes adjustments, and knows how to pitch.

The knocks on him are that he's homer-prone, and that he doesn't have the ceiling of a true #1 starter.  His upside is probably Barry Zito (who, hype aside, is more of a solid #2 than a legit ace).  That said, he's also considered a very safe bet, as far as pitching prospects go...while some folks don't think he'll ever be a star, almost everyone thinks he'll be a successful major league pitcher.  He's also a bit on the shortish side, which I think is something of a knock against him by some.

Folks who follow the Rangers loved this guy, and the Rangers trading him crushed a lot of folks, even for those who think the Rangers got the better end of the deal.  This is someone who, even more than with most prospects, Rangers fans were hoping would be a Ranger for a long time.

Nick Masset is interesting, and more of an enigma.  He was actually dropped from the 40 man roster in the middle of his disastrous 2005 season, bounced back with a solid 2006, and seemed to be putting it together out of the pen.  His stuff has never been questioned...it is more a matter of if he ever puts it together.  I'd roughly analogize him to former ChiSox, and Rangers, farmhand Aaron Myette in that regard.

by lonestarball on Dec 25, 2006 9:19 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Danks & Pitch Count
Danks averaged 5 and 1/3 ininngs per start last season across AA and AAA.  He has a high K/9 but doesn't give up too many hits which leads me to believe the Rangers had him on a very strict pitch count.  I hope stretching his arm out a bit is in his development plan right behind control improvement.

by 3E8 on Dec 25, 2006 9:42 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Please People Calm Down
You people need to stop thinking as passionate fans and start becoming GM's.  Danks is a LEFT handed power pitcher with very good control.  Cooper will straiten him and Floyd out. I do have to say looking in as a fan this trade seems very unnecessary.  The staff most of seen something in B-Mac that they didn't like. I think they would know better than anybody else what his potential could be.  Sox fans hand take some solace in knowing that he will never reach whatever potential he has pitching in Arlington stadium.  Everybody knows its the Coors Field f the American League

by chisox on Dec 25, 2006 11:06 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Rating Just On Potential Alone
  1. Floyd
  2. Danks
  3. McCarthy
I rated this based on how high Baseball America ranked them. Floyd and Danks are no stiffs, not by a long shot.  Danks throw mid 90's is left handed and has great control.  I can't stress that last sentence enough.  I just have a gut feeling that Cooper and Williams talked and said "we got to get this kid".  Supposedly they have been scouting him since the summer. As of right now I see the trade as even.

by chisox on Dec 25, 2006 11:17 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Somehow
You manage to overrate Danks terribly and conclude the trade is "even" in the same sentence.

Well Played.

by madvillian on Dec 26, 2006 12:35 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

No Merry Christmas for Kenny
The only thing that would make me feel better about this trade would be seeing a whole lot of fury on the part of Rangers fans.  Instead, I keep seeing things like "I'm sad we're giving up Danks but knowing we're getting someone of McCarthy's caliber makes me feel a hell of a lot better," which mostly makes me feel like we got screwed.  

by sabrina on Dec 26, 2006 8:27 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

we still have 4 solid starters
last year i felt was a fluke. we have four great starters even though they did not post good numbers. i know what happened a few years ago with that fifth starter. i really got annoyed by that. i dont see that happening this year. we will still have one of the best rotations in the majors (a lot better than three years ago before we got garcia and contreas even though he struggled). whether it be floyd, haegar, or dants at the fifth starter spot, i dont think they will be as bad as munoz, wright, rauch, and whoever we put in there. im really going to miss mcarthy and i did not want to see him go. i would not have made this trade. lets give it time though. dont judge right away. however kenny is trying to do two things at once. rebuild and win a world series at the same time. who knows, maybe it can be done. i think that kenny feels he can win the world series with this team and feels that they wont underachieve again like last year. maybe he feels comfortable with this team and feels good with these 4 solid starters.  all i can say is im lookin forward to this upcoming season and any more possible trades.

by grinderrules on Dec 27, 2006 1:45 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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