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Jon Garland takes a DIPS-hit, kills fantasy teams everywhere

Last year, Jon Garland allowed just 21 hits in the month of April on his way to an 8-0 start. At the time, I was relatively optimistic about him turning the corner as a pitcher even though it was clear that he couldn't keep holding batters to a .200 average on balls in play.

Two starts into the '06 season, Garland has allowed 23 hits in just 10.1 innings, allowing a .438 average on balls in play. Just like last year, it's clear that average will not continue. Garland has averaged around a .275 BABIP on his career, and he'll end up very close to that mark once again this year.

What's wrong with Garland?
The easy answer is he's not hitting his spots. When Garland is having the most success, he's grabbing strikes early in the at-bat. The longer the at-bat, the more the advantage favors the hitters, even moreso for Jon than other pitchers.

Garland's control is just a bit off. It's not that he's been walking batters. (He doesn't give in like the old Garland.) He's just missing the glove. That first pitch strike on the outside corner last year is now ball one. Those broken bats on pitches off the plate inside are now being hammered for doubles as Garland catches too much of the plate.

The arm is there. He's still throwing with his usual velocity, though his changeup wasn't changing as much as he would have liked today. It's just a matter of "making the pitches," as Hawk would say.

* * * * *
Was there any reason given as to why Podsednik didn't take the field in the 9th?

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Mackowiak...
I was wondering the same thing.  

by simplesinger on Apr 13, 2006 4:45 PM CDT reply actions  

Pods
How bad was that error he committed out there?  As a former mediocre LF for a very medicore D-3 team, even we were expected to make the hard charge and come up gunning--any bobble on a play like that was inexcusable, even at that level.

Maybe it was Ozzie sending a message?  Maybe he honestly feels Mackowiak is a better defensive player?  Maybe he was injured?  Lots of questions, no answers from me.

As for Garland, it should be noted that he gave up a lot of bloop hits followed by big blasts today.  Like Cheat said, a lot of AB's seemed to drag from 1-2 to 2-2, to 3-2, and finally to a bloop single or big hit.  That's the danger of not being a strikeout pitcher I guess on a windy day.  And from all I heard on the Tiger radio broadcast, they couldn't stop talking about how hard the wind was blowing out--making routine fly balls doubles, and doubles easy HR's.

by madvillian on Apr 13, 2006 5:17 PM CDT reply actions  

i'm guessing
it was because of the error. mack's arm is arguably better than pods, too.

by larry on Apr 13, 2006 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

OT: USS Mariner Hypes Felix
Usually I enjoy David Cameron's writings over at USS Mariner, however, this little bit of hyperpole annoys me for some reason:

"Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore, and Jhonny Peralta anchor one of the best line-ups in baseball. The Indians can flat out hit. Even their bad hitters are not bad hitters.

But it doesn't matter. King Felix is on the hill. The best hitters in baseball don't stand a chance against the Royal Curveball when Felix has even mediocre command. Every night is a possible no hitter, and every batter is a potentially embarrassing strikeout."

Come on Dave, lets at least see a full season from the King before making statements like that.  "The best hitters in baseball don't stand a chance against the Royal Curveball when Felix has even mediocre control"--sure, OK.  I'll take Pujols, Ortiz, AROD and give them a 3-1 count on King Felix and I think they will do OK--let alone have "no chance".

FWIW, the King isn't looking so hot tonight.  I was actually rooting for him to dominate CLE, but it doesn't look that is going to happen.

by madvillian on Apr 13, 2006 7:32 PM CDT reply actions  

dauphin-prince of wales felix
i agree.

pundits always say that he belongs to a class containing only himself. the next class containing liriano, verlander...etc.
to be honest, i think i'd rather have liriano. yeah, he's 2 years older...so what?

the santana-liriano future frightens me.
word up thome.

by huizinga on Apr 14, 2006 2:05 AM CDT up reply actions  

ESPN complaint
So with Hockey taking over all of the channel slots that would normally show Baseball, what does ESPN show tonight?  Phi at Atl.  Also showing on TBS to just about anyone with cable.  Nice programming, ESPN.  
-Peder

by Peder on Apr 13, 2006 8:05 PM CDT reply actions  

What happened to our Tigers fan friend?
Haven't seen him around here since...  well...  the start of the series.  I wonder why...?

------------------------

I actually became extrememly pissed off tonight.  I was at the Hawks/Wings game, and it was the most agitated I've ever been at a hockey game.

 - It wasn't just that the score was 7-3 Wings; it was more the fans.  But the game got chippy at the end, and I think that's what got me going.

 - These damn Red Wings fans have nicknamed FOR EVERY GOSH-DAMN PLAYER ON THE TEAM!  AND THEY AREN'T EVEN CLEVER NICKNAMES!!!!  "Shanny", "Zetty" -- they take the first syllable of the guys' name and stick a 'y' on it.  I must've heard "Chelly" a million f'n times.

 - They threw the octopus onto our ice.  Onto our ice.

 - At the second intermission, this kid and his mother, both Detroit fans, were trying to reason (and convince) each other that Chauncy Billups (or, Chauncy, like they're on a name-to-name basis with these guys) is a better player than Lebron James.

 - This one Red Wings fan was talking shit THE WHOLE GAME, and he was no bigger than me (5'9, 140), yet he was like 30 years old.  But when this one grizzly looking Hawks fan, 45-ish, big guy, came up to him, he cowered.

Ugh...  I had to vent.  I can't wait to see the Red Wings, again, get their asses handed to them in the playoffs.  They get 24 games, more than a fourth of their schedule, against the Hawks/Blues/Blue Jackets -- three of the bottom six teams in the NHL.  

Gosh damn, they're gonna get EXPOSED.

Sorry, there's my hockey rant for the month.

by CWSKeith on Apr 13, 2006 11:35 PM CDT reply actions  

I spent $180
and ended up in a place that may as well have been Detroit. My highlights - my kids got to see what happens when there's a hat trick. We were going to yell 'Throw the squid' and see how mad it made the Wings fans. Finally after it was all over this lone Hawks fan who sat with the Wings fans is yelling 'comon, Bears, Bulls.. give me something'.
I turned around and yelled "WHITE SOX, they just swept the Tigers". He's now high fiving me and his Wings bud says "Sox suck. Cubs! Yeah!". My kids and I just looked at him and laughed. Then we left the stadium in a good mood.
Comonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn You White Sox!

by zokmaad on Apr 14, 2006 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

Digging himself a hole
quickly crunching some numbers. If Garland went the rest of the season (say 190 innings) with a 3.90 ERA (which is about what I thought the "new Garland" was good for) he would end up with an ERA of 4.40, and his critics will be saying "I told you so."
AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Apr 14, 2006 12:22 AM CDT reply actions  

It's the utility post!
Ha, I seem to have set the tone for random rant night with my King Felix post.  

I've had the displeasure Keith of living in MI all of my 22 years on this planet (hurray college graduation this spring) and the Wings fans I know are pretty cocky.  Furthermore, Detroit--and Michigan in general--is full of bandwagon fans--like everywhere I suppose.  But it seems worse here 'cause I have to deal with it every day being a Bulls and Sox fan.

I must say that I'm not much of a hockey fan, however, "Up and Under" here in Kzoo runs a 15cent wings special every wings and Pistons playoff game--so I root for them only so my college student ass can get some cheap grub in the spring.

by madvillian on Apr 14, 2006 12:24 AM CDT reply actions  

I told you so...
Thing is Cheat, it's hard to disagree with critics--at least I think so.  I got into a bit off an argument over on Baseball Musings trying to defend Garland's honor, and I must say I was only in it half-heartedly.  All my sabermetric oriented self tells me last season will be his peak.  I did argue he'd be somewhere between 2004 and 2005 the rest of his career, but I only half believe it.  I tried to sight some of Studes' batted ball info, but even that didn't help Garland's case that much in the face of his DIPS 3.0 numbers, his .254 BABIB average in 2005, and his "runners left on" numbers.

Damn I just jumped out of my chair with a huge thunderstrike here in N. MI.  Spring is so much fun--the energy is everwhere--from the baseball diamond to the back yard.  

Yuck, I'm channeling a drunk and unedited George Will--probably time for bed.  Good victory today though, that makes me sleep easy.

by madvillian on Apr 14, 2006 12:30 AM CDT reply actions  

so, that was you
I knew it had to be someone from here on Baseball Musings.  I'm not expecting 05 again, but I'd welcome it.  Thing is, even if he reverts to the "old jon garland" we still have a league average pitcher in the 5th spot.

I wouldn't call it a liability.

AIM: shaftr01

XBL: TheMattressMan

by shaftr on Apr 14, 2006 12:33 AM CDT up reply actions  

WPA
M Thornton 1.90 %
B McCarthy      0.70 %
J Garland      -9.10 %
-----------------------
T Iguchi       19.40 %
J Dye          16.40 %
J Thome        13.60 %
A Cintron       5.00 %
P Konerko       3.90 %
A Pierzynski    2.20 %
J Crede         2.00 %
B Anderson     -2.90 %
S Podsednik    -3.10 %
AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Apr 14, 2006 5:58 PM CDT reply actions  

Oddities
FoxSports
When the Tigers lost to the White Sox on Thursday despite 21 hits, it was the first time since June 13, 1934 that they had lost a game in which they had 20 or more hits. On that day, they lost 15-13 to the Red Sox at Fenway despite 22 hits. In Thursday's loss -- thanks to having two guys thrown out on the bases and hitting into a double play -- the Tigers made only 24 outs at the plate and hit .467 (21-for-45) on the afternoon.
AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Apr 15, 2006 6:23 PM CDT reply actions  

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