Also, although Raines was a seven-time All-Star, the last season in which he garnered that honor was in 1987; the man didn't play his last game until 2002. 1989 was the last year in which he got an MVP vote. That to me doesn't smack of all-time great.

A greater tragedy is that a wayward baserunning incident has (snow)sealed his infamy.

>100 likely Hall of Famer with >130 virtual cinch.

Raines is 90... blah blah blah

Put Raines in his prime in the current collection of baseball talent, and he'd universally be held as the best leadoff man in the game. One that all writers would support for first ballot status.

Raines is hurt by sharing his prime with two transcendent players (Gwynn and Henderson). But his resume still holds up well against them.

I'm now seeing that Raines will be embraced by the Saber community for his high OBP and incredible SB efficiency, but be locked out by the writers because he failed to reach some stupid numbers milestones (It's worth noting that collusion cost him about 40 games immediately following his best season). What's ironic is that you'll often see writers talk about a teams need for a "leadoff man" met with catcalls from statheads claiming "leadoff man isn't a position." But when it comes to the Hall of Fame you'll have the statheads comparing Raines with other "leadoff men" and the writers comparing him to players in general.

I'd also like to point out that he still compares well with the two current borderline HOF sluggers. His career OPS+ falls between Dawson and Rice. I'd consider both Rice and Dawson above average sluggers that stuck around long enough to compile good numbers. Raines, however, was an elite OBP speedster. The type of player we may never see again. It would be sad if he isn't recognized for his excellence.

Raines Has Nothing to Worry About

Its all been hall of fame all the time ... so OK next year, Tim Raines, what's your take? Here's mine: I'm 42 years old and have lived overseas since 1989. Watched a lot of ball from mid-70s to that time, and Raines was simply the second best leadoff guy in the league. I'm pretty sure you can extend that to the last 40-50 years. I know he did blow and all that, but this cat could play and like Goose Gossage you knew you were watching an all-time brilliant player. His counting stats are solid, his rates stats hold up when in comparison, how about a for and against argument for induction(if anyone there is silly enough to argue against).

- Keith F.

Sal Baxamusa: I'll take the "for" argument, Keith. In my mind, Tim Raines is a no-doubt Hall of Famer. He played for 23 productive seasons, failing to crack a 100 OPS+ in only his age 31, 39, and 42 seasons. He finished his career with a 123 OPS+, including an excellent .385 career OBP. In the '80s and '90s, he got on base at a rate 17% above league average--in 20 years of playing--trailing only Wade Boggs, Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, and Tony Gwynn, and leading Fred McGriff, Roberto Alomar and Alan Trammell (among hitters with greater than 8000 plate appearances).

He stole over 800 bases with a success rate of 84%. Between 1983 and 1989, only once was he not among the NL top five in OBP. During that time, he bes only Wade Boggs, Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, and Tony Gwynn, and leading Fred McGriff, Roberto Alomar and Alan Trammell (among hitters with greated Eddie Murray, Rickey Henderson, Robin Yount, Tony Gwynn, and Cal Ripken in OPS+, according to Lee Sinin's Sabermetric Encyclopedia. And that case only took me 10 minutes of sloppy research.

So the question is not, should he get in, it's will he. Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus thinks that Tim Raines will become the next Bert Blyleven, a slam-dunk Hall-of-Famer who has trouble gathering the necessary votes.

In particular, he's worried about how Raines' admitted cocaine scandal will affect how the voters feel about him. My guess is that voters will have their brains so wrapped up in revisionist history of the steroid-era that they won't even consider the coke use (because it's OK for a player to use illicit drugs that will hurt his performance on the field, but not okay to use drugs that will help). The steroid-backlash/witch hunt may actually lead to voters appreciating his
low-power game (nevermind that he slugged above league average over his career or that speed players have tested positive for performance enhancing drugs). Lots of fawning articles will be written about the death of speed game in baseball and Tim Raines will be the patron saint when he appears on the ballot.

I don't think that Raines will get in on the first ballot, but neither do I think that his will be an uphill battle like the one Blyleven is going through right now. Watch for Raines to spend a few years on the ballot before he finally breaks through and enters the Hall.