and all it would take to get him are four top young players

by The Wizard on Nov 12, 2007 1:05 PM CST in White Sox News

Continuing the previous thread let's see what are the Marlins asking for:

The Florida Marlins are trying to hit a grand slam in trade talks involving All-Star third baseman Miguel Cabrera, executives involved in the discussions say.

The price is so prohibitive and includes multiple top-tier prospects -- the kind of young players that are hardly ever traded anymore -- that executives believe the Marlins will have to drop their price significantly to deal Cabrera. Because the requests have been jaw-dropping, teams say they don't see anything happening until the winter meetings next month.

For Cabrera, 24, the Marlins are requesting a package of four top young players, according to industry sources, and prime names that interest them are believed to include pitchers Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes from the New York Yankees, outfielder Jacoby Ellbsury and pitcher Clay Buchholz from the Boston Red Sox, pitching prospect Clayton Kershaw from the Los Angeles Dodgers, and second baseman Howie Kendrick and pitching prospect Nick Adenhart from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Say each of the 4 players is under club control for 5 year. How do 2 years of Cabrera outweigh 20 years of those players, for a team like the White Sox? *****

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how does it outweigh?

let's first make the obvious assumption that the price is going to drop. if the deal gets done, it would be, say, 3 prospects/youngsters of high quality. so let's put it at fifteen years of service.

the way it would make sense is if the marginal value of cabrera is really high for your team. and by that i mean you've got a team already that is an obvious contender but needs one big-time player to push your team over the top to a true world series contender. a team like the angels comes to mind. you'd also need to be a team that can deal prospects because you've got lots of them. angels again. and it would be good to have copious amounts of money because 1) cabrera won't be cheap (in pure dollar terms) the next two years and 2) his value to you becomes even higher if you manage to get him to sign an extension before he hits the open market. well, lookee, angels again.

now, the point is that you'd pretty much have to win the world series (or perhaps go to it once and have another playoff run) for it to be worth it in terms of revenue. you'd likely make the "dollar value" of those prospects and the money you put into cabrera back if your team did that. it's tricky putting dollar value on such things but that's how it would work. there aren't many teams out there who can make a deal like this make sense, especially when it's rather unlikely that miggy won't test the market (he'd be absolutely insane to not auction himself off, arod style.)

by larry on Nov 12, 2007 1:17 PM CST reply actions

thanks

I meant to add 'make sense, [for the white sox]'
I'll add it now

it seems I'm still sleeping...

by The Wizard on Nov 12, 2007 1:22 PM CST up reply actions

well

we already know my opinion (apparently a somewhat minority one) on that.

by larry on Nov 12, 2007 1:30 PM CST up reply actions

ok, say HQ 3 youngsters

would someone give them that?

by The Wizard on Nov 12, 2007 1:47 PM CST up reply actions

would they?

yes, depending upon how some other dominoes fall. like i said, the angels are a strong possibility. if they miss out on arod, i think they would be interested in making a deal. willingness to make the deal, of course, is only part of it. you have to have the pieces (players and money) that you could feasibly expend. i think only the angels, red sox, dodgers, and tigers have that. of those, i'd say only the angels and dodgers would legitimately do it. that's a pretty small market. if either were to get arod, the price of cabrera would likely drop too far for the marlins to do the deal.

by larry on Nov 12, 2007 1:54 PM CST up reply actions

We

can't play in this game. Can't, for all the reasons you've stated. However, we must still aggressively see what we can get for Konerko and Garland and walk the difficult tight-rope, that is, balancing the here and now with the future so as to field a competitive team this year with an eye toward the future. Fooling ourselves into thinking we can play the Cabrera game is as idealistic (not realistic) as your plan of going all young and chucking the next two years.

by dantesox on Nov 12, 2007 2:01 PM CST up reply actions

my plan

does not chuck the next two years, it chucks 2008. my team would be competitive in 2009. it would be a fast track rebuilding process a la the tigers. we've got too much salary sunk into veterans who aren't likely to be moved to wait until 2010 to field a competitive team.

by larry on Nov 12, 2007 2:03 PM CST up reply actions

We

need to keep knocking on the Angel's door. I'm telling you, it's like I've been saying....they have this thing about INTEGRITY and PERSPECTIVE...call it corny, high-morale ground if you must...preventing them from going after the a-rods and bonds' of the world. The stuff you hear and read about Moreno plus their past behavior leads me to believe this. Maybe I'l be wrong and they'll get one of them....I still think Konerko's more their kind of guy.

by dantesox on Nov 12, 2007 2:14 PM CST up reply actions

Now Cabrera...

that I can see.

by dantesox on Nov 12, 2007 2:18 PM CST up reply actions

maybe he is

but i think the angels are smarter than that. they need someone a bit better than konerko to get them over the hump.

by larry on Nov 12, 2007 2:21 PM CST up reply actions

You could be right

that Konerko's not enough. Man, I would go HARD after Cabrera if I'm the Angels....Konerko would be a consolation prize, but he would still be someone they'd think about if they can't land Cabrera.

by dantesox on Nov 12, 2007 2:29 PM CST up reply actions

I love superstars

But this idea is insane when you consider the long term extension would not come (he WILL become a free agent). I am delusional more than most but I dont even think this is close.

"Find out what you are doing wrong and STOP doing that."

by Tdogg on Nov 12, 2007 1:51 PM CST up reply actions

mailbag

merkin:

Don't look for the White Sox to completely mortgage their future in order to add Cabrera, unless they believe a long-term extension can be negotiated.

by The Wizard on Nov 12, 2007 2:33 PM CST reply actions

disappointed

paul for las vegas didn't weigh in.

by larry on Nov 12, 2007 2:37 PM CST up reply actions

his brother from wisconsin did!

he may be a rangers fan but the overvaluing sox players trait is everywhere in the family!

scroll down

by The Wizard on Nov 12, 2007 7:37 PM CST up reply actions

By the way,

I'm predicting Juan Uribe will come to camp with 15 less pounds and proceed to go 260/320/450 and give us gold glove caliber defense at short AND second.

by dantesox on Nov 12, 2007 2:36 PM CST reply actions

free agency begins

or, if you have potential free agents, the exclusive negotiation period ends.

by larry on Nov 12, 2007 3:50 PM CST up reply actions

About Fukodome

Larry -- the BJH doesn't, by chance, have a projection for Fukodome, does it? Or is there any projection out on the internet for him yet?

I'm dissappointed that I haven't seen the Sox linked to Fukodome yet. At the very least he'd be an intriguing player to have aboard coming into the season. As they stand right now, this Sox team is very boring outside of a couple of the young guys and a handful of others (Fields, Richar, Thome, Danks, Buehrle, Vazquez, Jenks, Wasserman -- obviously this is subjective). Maybe I'm making the mistake of automatically associating 'young' with 'interesting', which is why I've been on the 'trade Konerko!' bandwagon for quite a time.

by CWSKeith on Nov 12, 2007 4:06 PM CST up reply actions

i love fukodome

i thought about including him in my "team" for what i'd do for GM but i didn't think it was realistic. i think he'll be good.

bill james doesn't have a projection. but wiz posted a link yesterday with one (along with other japanese players).

http://www.dugoutcentral.com/blog/?cat=13

in pertinent part: .265-.285/.380 with 20-30 homers.

i think the OBP may be a bit high but i'd call the other numbers right based upon what little information and comps we have. i'd put him at about .365 OBP. he seems to have a great eye.

by larry on Nov 12, 2007 4:21 PM CST up reply actions

i love him so much

i can't spell his name. fukudome, damnit.

by larry on Nov 12, 2007 4:26 PM CST up reply actions

and they project a .380 OBP!

fuku declared FA today; iwase is staying in japan

Kosuke Fukudome Scouting Report
Projections courtesy of iScouts, Inc 2007

by The Wizard on Nov 12, 2007 4:39 PM CST up reply actions

this is an old one

for 2007 but i think you can draw some conclusions from it, as well.

http://sturgeongeneral.wordpress.com/2006/11/09/japanese-projections-part-3-hitters/

.308/.375/.507.

again, i'd call that overly ambitious but it gives you a feel.

by larry on Nov 12, 2007 4:29 PM CST up reply actions

I

think they should go after him with the same wreckless abandon they seem to be pursuing Hunter....probably more so....he's just what they need in that 2-hole.

by dantesox on Nov 12, 2007 4:33 PM CST up reply actions

i'm right there with you

though the cubs are supposedly hot for him.

by larry on Nov 12, 2007 4:39 PM CST up reply actions

yes, go after him kenny!

he won't cost us any talent, only money yes?

by The Wizard on Nov 12, 2007 4:41 PM CST up reply actions

we'd have to send our 36th round pick to japan

as compensation. bye bye, oney.

by larry on Nov 12, 2007 4:49 PM CST up reply actions

Getz and Sweeney

both have three hits apiece today....of course, none of them extra base knocks....christ, La Porta and Reimold both have SIX homers and Sweeney can't even muster a double.

by dantesox on Nov 12, 2007 4:20 PM CST reply actions

LaPorta

Kid can rake -- hopefully he can hng in LF.

I remember Cheat wanting LaPorta before the draft, I did too. That was shot down at Soxtalk -- "we need a POWER ARM!" -- but it proved to be a moot point as he went in the top ten to the Brewers.

Speaking of which, with Poreda being tagged as a guy who probably won't develop a breaking ball, and, on top of that, has a terrible pitching motion, is there any guy in the 2007 draft that the Sox will regret passing on in the first round (not including Porcello)?

by CWSKeith on Nov 12, 2007 4:39 PM CST up reply actions

everyone needs to rinse and repeat

best available player. best available player.

i guess if you believe all the bad stuff about poreda, we'll regret passing on everyone at this point. i've got a thing for nick hagadone - not sure i'd have taken him in the 20s, though. at this point, it's hard to argue because some of these guys didn't play a "pro" game until last month.

by larry on Nov 12, 2007 4:47 PM CST up reply actions

Porcello

Was the best available player at that point. But he wanted money and lots of it. So we passed and went another route.

Hopefully we dont take the 10 cent approach to someone who should be an impact guy in the top ten.

by southsideirish71 on Nov 12, 2007 4:51 PM CST up reply actions

forget the money

he wanted a major league contract. we've got a lot of chaff on the 40 man but i'm not going to add a pitcher - with only high school experience, no less - to the 40 and risk losing him in a few years or wasting a major league roster spot if he doesn't develop quickly.

by larry on Nov 12, 2007 4:58 PM CST up reply actions

so he will be on the tigers 40 in 2008?

was the reason for asking for that a quicker payday?

wasn't he afraid of stunted development?

by The Wizard on Nov 12, 2007 5:05 PM CST up reply actions

he's there right now

he was put on it the day he signed.

by larry on Nov 12, 2007 5:15 PM CST up reply actions

my god, he is!

what kind of crazyass demand is that?

by The Wizard on Nov 12, 2007 5:22 PM CST up reply actions

has his 6-year clock started?

by The Wizard on Nov 12, 2007 5:26 PM CST up reply actions

found this via google

bb:

Via a comment from BBTF...
---------
A MLB contract puts you on the 40 man roster. This does not start your service time. Being on the active roster starts your service clock. Arbitration is determined only on your service time, as is free agency. But if you are on the 40 man roster you must be optioned to the minors if you are not going to be on the active roster. So players with MLB contracts get their option years started right away, as opposed to other draftees whose option years do not begin until a team places them on the 40 man roster (has to be within four years otherwise they are exposed to the Rule 5 Draft). After three option years, a player must be exposed to waivers to be sent to the minors.
----------
So, this means that Porcello is in the majors to stay after 3 years. If he plays this year then this is year one, 2008 year 2, 2009 year 3, 2010 he is in Detroit to stay. Otherwise 2011 he will be there to stay or the Tigers could lose him via waivers to any other team for the waiver wire fee ($50k iirc). In 2011 he will be 23. At 23 Roy Halladay had a historically bad year with a 10.64 ERA and was sent all the way to A ball to rebuild himself. If he signed a ML contract at 19 the Jays would've lost him if any other team thought Halladay had anything special. Odds are Halladay would never have had that special instruction and would've never become the ace we know him as today.

by The Wizard on Nov 12, 2007 5:46 PM CST up reply actions

local product todd van poppel

is the poster child for this. got rushed through the minors. probably hurt himself because he was rushed. wasn't ready for the majors when his three years were up and ended up having a very disappointing career. maybe he wouldn't have panned out anyway but getting rushed didn't help. and, unlike high-profile first round picks these days, van poppel signed in time to pitch in the minors the same year he was drafted. porcello didn't even do that.

by larry on Nov 12, 2007 6:00 PM CST up reply actions

re

has to be within four years otherwise they are exposed to the Rule 5 Draft

5 for HSers

by The Wizard on Nov 12, 2007 6:03 PM CST up reply actions

no

the concern is that, after three years in the minors (or parts of years), he'd have to pass through waivers for a fourth. so if he's not ready for major league action in three (something i wouldn't say is unlikely for a high school pitcher), you're in a tight spot: leave him on the major league roster or get him through waivers (basically impossible for a player who merits a major league contract out of the draft).

the pressure to get him through the tigers system quickly will be immense. i wouldn't want it put on me and i wouldn't want to put it on a player.

by larry on Nov 12, 2007 5:52 PM CST up reply actions

thanks

I was disappointed that the sox passed on him because I thought it was only his large bonus demand

I'm not disappointed anymore...

by The Wizard on Nov 12, 2007 5:58 PM CST up reply actions

frankly

for the sox, it probably was more about the money than anything. for me, it was about the major league contract. you've gotta be damn sure to do it or be able to absorb such a mistake. i imagine it was more the latter for the tigers. they've got the money and the prospects already to not have to worry about this one blowing up. the sox, well, not so much.

in the last decade, the only high school pitcher i thought who merited a major league contract was josh beckett. that's pretty much the standard i compare against. porcello isn't josh beckett.

by larry on Nov 12, 2007 6:05 PM CST up reply actions

I completely disagree w/r/t Porcello

although that was talked about ad nauseum and I don't feel the need to rehash that.

Your point about "regretting passing on everyone" certainly holds true, though. I was mainly thinking about guys the Sox were linked to (mainly Michael Main, no pun intended). I'll have to keep an eye on that infielder who went in the supplamental round to Toronto, Justin Jackson. He would've been considered a reach, but if Sox scouts really liked what they saw there, it's not like there was a 'homerun' pick at 25 (is there ever?), so at the very least, I would've respected the Sox' decision to go against the grain (apologies for the Peter Gammons run-on).

by CWSKeith on Nov 12, 2007 5:22 PM CST up reply actions

we're allergic to extra base hits

even bourgeois has 6 doubles and a triple

by The Wizard on Nov 12, 2007 5:12 PM CST up reply actions

Has anyone.....

heard anything about the meeting that Williams and Hunter had yesterday?

If you die with your eyes open you deserved it.

by Soulja Boy on Nov 12, 2007 4:47 PM CST reply actions

DeAndre, is that you?

Jim Halpert said there was an abandoned infant in the women's room. When I went in to save the child, I saw Meredith on the can.

by Toonderstrook on Nov 12, 2007 4:57 PM CST up reply actions

This guy has a Wikipedia bio?

Gott ist tot.

2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 12, 2007 7:11 PM CST up reply actions

Soulja, is this you?

"the main criticisms have been that his songs are low in quality lyrical content and have no real meaning or purpose". Straight off Wiki!

Ah, the pain; only my enemies should know.

2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 12, 2007 7:17 PM CST up reply actions

I don't fux wit soulja boi like dat

Change my name back to sw34tness!

If you die with your eyes open you deserved it.

by Soulja Boy on Nov 13, 2007 8:06 AM CST up reply actions

paul from las vegas got a brother!

and his brother is a rangers fan!

[texas.rangers.mailbag]:

Is there any chance the Rangers would trade Michael Young to the White Sox for Juan Uribe and Jon Garland or Jose Contreras?
-- Michael B., Fond du Lac, Wis.

can we make mike the rangers GM?

by The Wizard on Nov 12, 2007 6:59 PM CST reply actions