White Sox Holiday shopping list

by The Wizard on Dec 20, 2007 6:20 PM CST in Quotes Comment 66 comments

The new guy, Jaryd Wilson, over at The Bard's Room has a few suggestions for the Sox Holiday shopping list:

With the Holiday season in full swing, I thought I would write my inaugural column about what the White Sox need to have on their Holiday shopping list. Here's what should be on the list:

#3) A second baseman ... top choice: Marcus Giles

#2) A starting pitcher ... top choice: Shawn Chacon

#1) An outfielder ... top choice: Corey Patterson

My choices would be Richar at 2nd base, Gio/Egbert as starter, and Ryan Sweeney at the outfield (Center). I'd be OK with Mike Cameron at center too. We need a 2B backup though right? Can Tony G do it? BTW, as most of you know too well, my ideal CF choice would be Brian Anderson but the odds of an Ozzie-Brian reunion don't look good. How does your Sox Holiday shopping list look like? ***** In other news,

David Eckstein's ZiPS projection: .277/.334/.344 (80 OPS+).
Hot Stove: The Flubs are considering signing So Taguchi. That could lead to Matt Murton being traded for less than he's worth. BTW, here are the 2009 MLB Free Agents from MLBTR.
UZRs from 2003 to mid-2007.
THT: Fastball, slider, changeup, curveball--an analysis. Tango gives it two thumbs up!

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Shawn Chacon?

Seriously? I'm having trouble seeing what he brings to the table.

Gavin Floyd is out of options - he'll get every opportunity before the team gives up on him. If Egbert or Gio Gonzalez makes the team, it'll be at the expense of Danks, not Floyd.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Dec 20, 2007 6:29 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

can't floyd go to the bullpen?

if he doesn't handle the starter role well...

by The Wizard on Dec 20, 2007 6:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It's possible...

but he really sucked when they tried him as a reliever last year. I don't think the team thinks he's suited for that.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Dec 20, 2007 6:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

so they'll release him if he struggles?

by The Wizard on Dec 20, 2007 6:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe, maybe not.

But he'll at least start the season in the rotation.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Dec 20, 2007 6:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Gavin Floyd will not be dumped...

no matter how awful he is in 2008 (see Nick Masset).

by SSH2005 on Dec 20, 2007 7:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Six-

man rotation, baby!

Kidding. I don't want Chacon no way, no how, no why.

by jackie hayes on Dec 20, 2007 6:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

unrelated

if the state of Illinois buys wrigley field, will they be able to make money of that?
or are the operating expenses bigger than the revenues?

by The Wizard on Dec 20, 2007 6:50 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Lease

I would assume the new owner of the Cubs would lease Wrigley from the State and it would be in the State's best interests to earn a profit.

Who rents an old falling apart building for less than the Mortgage?? (I could actually see the State doing this though....can't even pass a budget).

by BobbySouthSide on Dec 21, 2007 9:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Bring back the Murton trade talks...

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Dec 20, 2007 6:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Murton no longer fits our needs...

Quentin can't play CF and Dye is here for two more seasons. As much as I like Murton, trading for him wouldn't make much sense.

If Kenny were truly rebuilding and he had traded Dye at the deadline last season, Murton would have been a very nice acquisition. Murton in LF and Quentin in RF would have been nice.

by SSH2005 on Dec 20, 2007 7:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

HUH?

Did you say Murton in LF and Quinten in RF would be nice? Uh, that would be nice for all the other teams in MLB.

by BobbySouthSide on Dec 21, 2007 9:52 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Jaryd Wilson at The Bard's Room...

is a Cubs fan. One would have to try hard to pick the three crappiest free agent signings all for one team. I might consider Marcus Giles for a second but he has been trash the past two seasons -- I think I would rather see what Richar can do.

by SSH2005 on Dec 20, 2007 7:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Considering the cost of Richar

KW ought to stick with him. The Sox don't have position prospects to just give away.

His little smile pissed me off.

by colintj on Dec 20, 2007 10:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Konerko not available in trade talks...

Link:

Konerko, according to a White Sox source, is not available, and even if he was, it's highly unlikely the Angels would still have interest in him. They no longer need a designated hitter -- corner outfielders Vladimir Guerrero and Garret Anderson will rotate through the DH spot -- and they expect first baseman Casey Kotchman to mature into a 20-homer, 90-RBI hitter.

Link:

As for third basemen, baseball people say the trade market remains tight. The Seattle Mariners, who might have shopped Adrian Beltre in a deal for pitching, would have less need with the impeding signing of free- agent starter Carlos Silva. The White Sox might deal Joe Crede, who is coming off back surgery (but not first baseman Paul Konerko, whom the Sox plan to keep). Third baseman Morgan Ensberg became a free agent when the Padres declined to offer him a contract last week.

by SSH2005 on Dec 20, 2007 7:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

well, if someone makes the right offer

he'll magically become available!

by The Wizard on Dec 20, 2007 7:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I saw that last night

I had to laugh quietly to myself.

Giles, who, full disclosure, I thought was the FA bargain of last off-season, is not a major leaguer now that he's no longer a walking pharmacy. I could be wrong, but I don't think he'll even get a major league deal this year.

Chacon has had one improbable good half-season for the yankees, two seasons ago. Other than that, he's been Todd Ritchie -- a name which should bring even the most recent White Sox fan to his knees in pain.

Patterson has a career OBP below .300. He may be a fine defensive CFer, but that's not really the area we were lacking in from our CF last year, where Owens and Erstad combined to be unspectacularly above average defensively.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Dec 20, 2007 7:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

If Kenny says that he is looking for OBP in CF...

who the hell can he get?

Kenny Lofton: .372 career OBP
Mike Cameron: .341 career OBP
Coco Crisp: .329 career OBP
Corey Patterson: .298 career OBP
Alexei Ramirez: ???

by SSH2005 on Dec 20, 2007 8:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i'm not sure

using career OBP for geriatrics makes much sense. how often have lofton and cameron met or exceeded their career averages since they were in their early 30s? not much.

crisp and patterson speak for themselves. ramirez is a AAA player.

by larry on Dec 20, 2007 8:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

what makes you say

alexei ramirez is a AAA player?

by Jbasic89 on Dec 20, 2007 8:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

similar cuban players

have come over and they've pretty much all started in the minors (and often stayed there, as well). i have no problem signing him, assuming the price isn't exhorbitant, but i wouldn't expect him to be on the major league roster opening day. i'm also wondering why his dominican league campaign was so short, not to mention uninspiring.

by larry on Dec 20, 2007 9:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Kenny Lofton / Mike Cameron...

You are right about Kenny Lofton...

1997; 30 years old = .409 OBP
1998; 31 years old = .371 OBP
1999; 32 years old = .405 OBP
2000; 33 years old = .369 OBP
2001; 34 years old = .322 OBP
2002; 35 years old = .350 OBP
2003; 36 years old = .352 OBP
2004; 37 years old = .346 OBP
2005; 38 years old = .392 OBP
2006; 39 years old = .360 OBP
2007; 40 years old = .367 OBP
-----------------------------------------------
Kenny Lofton's career OBP = .372 OBP

But Cameron has actually exceeded his career OBP three out of the last five years since he turned 30...

2003; 30 years old = .344 OBP
2004; 31 years old = .319 OBP
2005; 32 years old = .342 OBP
2006; 33 years old = .355 OBP
2007; 34 years old = .328 OBP
-----------------------------------------------
Mike Cameron's career OBP = .341 OBP

by SSH2005 on Dec 21, 2007 8:06 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder why??

Cuz of da Performance enhancing drugs he was on?!

by BobbySouthSide on Dec 21, 2007 9:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

for the record

I voted for Jesse in the poll.... Not because I think he's the best option, but because I think he's the least franchise damaging of the realistic options...

I can't see Lofton (now poor defensively) or Cameron being acquired. Crisp and Pierre would be both terrible (marginal upgrades over Jesse) and cost us youth. Anderson has a snowball's chance, and he hasn't really earned the chance to be anything other than a 4th-5th outfielder at the outset of next season.

If you're asking what I would do... I would sign Cameron for (hopefully) 2/$17M (7M + 9M), but apart from that move, the Sox would be best off punting CF with their 3 AAA outfielders.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Dec 20, 2007 8:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You should know that

Mackowiak's job in center in '06 was better than Lofton's according to PMR. So Lofton isn't really even a bad centerfielder. He's just not one anymore.

His little smile pissed me off.

by colintj on Dec 20, 2007 10:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

And there lies the problem

With most defensive metrics. Even putting that down on paper defies logic. Mack was not better in center than Lofton EVER.

"Find out what you are doing wrong and STOP doing that."

by Tdogg on Dec 20, 2007 10:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I dislike PMR

for the exact reason you state... There are too many guys who lie too far outside the range of conventional wisdom/observation.

UZR and the Fielding Bible are pretty damn good though. While one guy might be higher or lower than you think he should be, the correlation between (my) perception and the data is much higher.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Dec 20, 2007 10:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

And Lofton isn't

any good in the field (anymore) by those metrics either.

by bhoov on Dec 21, 2007 9:25 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

cheat

why is kenny not interested in mike cameron?

by The Wizard on Dec 20, 2007 8:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

He's just not

that's as simple of an answer as I can give. Cameron isn't really a high-OBP guy thanks to some low average tendencies, but he does know how to take a walk and would put up some pretty nice power numbers at the Cell to offset that...

I responded to SSH here

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Dec 20, 2007 8:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

oh, I didn't see that

any weight on the 'kenny is mad about the loose lips and isn't speaking' thing?

by The Wizard on Dec 20, 2007 8:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

He's not speaking

and most of his trades over the last, let's say, 4 years have come without a whole lot of talk in the media. But the Sox have been more or less connected with all of their FA signings for weeks in advance.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Dec 20, 2007 8:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

methinks

the loose lips usually come from agents. the sox have (historically) kept a pretty tight lid on things.

by larry on Dec 20, 2007 8:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

a theory that matches the evidence

a nice thing to know. thanks guys.

His little smile pissed me off.

by colintj on Dec 20, 2007 10:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

did you watch those vids I sent you?

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Dec 20, 2007 8:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

those were pretty big

just kiddin' folks!

no I haven't
I'll try tomorrow or over the weekend

by The Wizard on Dec 20, 2007 8:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

thats the worst

christmas list i've ever seen. did sox fans rape and pillage bridgeport to deserve such a horrible xmas as jaryd is suggesting?? seriously, that is the worst list of free agents you could possibly put together. i think id rather sign kris benson or josh towers than shawn chacon. and i'd rather let pablo ozuna play 2nd rather than marcus giles if it werent going to be richar. and corey patterson??? id rather have boom boom bevington out there.

12/12/07- We'll miss you Andy Gonzalez

by The Deacon on Dec 20, 2007 8:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

what about Josh Hamilton?

Is anyone still talking about him being traded? Would the Reds give him up for Danks? Should the Sox make that deal? Obviously, he's a huge risk but the guy had a .922 OPS last year at the age of 26. He could go a long way toward solving the Sox outfield problems and they wouldn't have to pay him serious money until he was 30+.

by jwb on Dec 20, 2007 10:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I love Josh Hamilton's story

...but I'm not giving up a 22 year lefty for a 26 year old former drug addict who only managed to play 90 games last year.

If we could get him for...say...Joe Crede, then I'm all over that deal. Or, since Krivsky has a soft spot for crappy middle relievers, I'm sure KW can put together an enticing package of crap.

by BoKnows on Dec 21, 2007 9:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If we had Josh Hamilton...

would you take one year of Crede + crappy reliever(s) for him? C'mon, let's be somewhat realistic here...

by SSH2005 on Dec 21, 2007 9:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't

but Krivsky might. He did trade Kearns, Felipe Lopez, and a minor league pitcher to the Nats for Gary Majewski, Bill Bray, Royce Clayton, and a couple of minor league players.

So, I don't think it's that unrealistic.

by BoKnows on Dec 21, 2007 10:05 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You don't think

Hamilton will be more valuable over the next four years than Danks? Danks looks to me like, at best, a solid third starter in the American League. If he could stay healthy, Hamilton would give the Sox an above-average bat in the outfield for hardly any money. He's likely to be a better hitter than Rowand or Hunter.

That said, I don't think Kenny would make that deal. But maybe they'd take some combination of Crede along with Egbert / Broadway / Masset, etc. Although I think they're happy with Encarnacion at 3B.

by jwb on Dec 21, 2007 1:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

assuming hamilton

doesn't decide to try to kill himself for the fifth time or snort his way through a west coast swing.

by larry on Dec 21, 2007 1:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You guys should definitely

read that THT article. Man, I really should do that Gavin Floyd diary now.

His little smile pissed me off.

by colintj on Dec 21, 2007 12:26 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I played with Floyd and Danks'

pitch data last weekend. I would have posted something, but the numbers didn't seem to mesh... The only thing that I learned was that Gavin's slider was a dominant pitch last year in games pitched at pitch f/x equipped parks. I forget the exact number now, but he had guys swinging and missing at 25% (or better) of his sliders thrown. Thats not called strikes, not foul tips, or balls in play. That's 25+% of the time he threw his slider the batter tried but came up with nothin.

Oh and Danks fastball induced a lot of foul balls, but a ton of solid contact as well. His changeup missed a lot of bats, but got hit for power quite often.

Basically I didn't write anything because I didn't have the league average data... I suppose I can do that now. I'll make a post tomorrow, PROMISE!

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Dec 21, 2007 1:20 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If you use those Josh Kalk player

cards, they come with the caveat of using a different algorithm than the john walsh stuff.

His little smile pissed me off.

by colintj on Dec 21, 2007 3:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

that could be a problem then...

here's how I'm interpreting the data for Gavin Floyd

He threw 165 sliders (Balls + Strikes Called + Strikes Swinging + Foul + In play outs + Hits) he got 38 batters swing and misses at his slider... 38/165 = .23

There may be a difference in N (the number of sliders thrown by a pitcher) between the two types, but the sheer number of pitches (48K sliders, and 270K total) make the overall "performance by pitch type," which isn't that wide ranging in the first place, pretty stable.

The main reason I didn't type anything up was I got about 5-6% swing-and-miss numbers for Floyd and Danks on fastballs. I thought this seemed too low. But it's probably only slightly below average...

I'll run the data for all interesting pitchers this afternoon.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Dec 21, 2007 12:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd really love

to see that. floyd did show a lot of promise in a few starts in september. He owned the tigers, if that counts for anything!

12/12/07- We'll miss you Andy Gonzalez

by The Deacon on Dec 21, 2007 7:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Padres make case as front-runners for ex-Cubs ace

ESPN's Buster Olney wrote:

The San Diego Padres appear to be the front-runner to sign pitcher Mark Prior, who figures to make a final choice among many offers very soon, perhaps within the next 24-48 hours.

The Padres have offered a modest base salary plus a performance bonus package to Prior, according to sources, but other teams continue to talk with Prior, and other more aggressive offers could take shape. The former Cub pitcher lives in San Diego County, and in the end, he may opt to play for the team located closest to his home, in what figures to be a transitional year in his career.

by SSH2005 on Dec 21, 2007 8:13 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Bench

so our bench for now is Ozuna, Uribe, Crede and Hall?? are they going to keep another OF for the bench, or is ozzie really commited to ozuna being our 4th OF?

12/12/07- We'll miss you Andy Gonzalez

by The Deacon on Dec 21, 2007 8:26 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Crede shouldn't be on the team.

Depending on whether or not Williams goes out and gets a centerfielder, the fourth outfielder will be either Anderson, Sweeney, or Owens.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Dec 21, 2007 8:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

oh yeah

getting rid of crede was part of plan 3-R, but since that failed we have him still.

12/12/07- We'll miss you Andy Gonzalez

by The Deacon on Dec 21, 2007 8:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm still not clear...

on what the plan for Crede is. I still don't think he has any trade value at the moment, but the team doesn't really have room for him. I don't know why he was offered a contract.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Dec 21, 2007 8:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Someone will trade for Crede...

even if we have to take a B level or worse prospect. Teams might be waiting for Spring Training to see if Crede is fully recovered and able to perform before they trade for him.

by SSH2005 on Dec 21, 2007 8:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

crede isn't going to get traded until ST

by larry on Dec 21, 2007 9:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

but

that wasnt the original plan. im sure KW wanted to get rid of him earlier.

12/12/07- We'll miss you Andy Gonzalez

by The Deacon on Dec 21, 2007 9:44 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

want is irrelevant

trading crede prior to ST was always unlikely to happen. and if you have a copy of this original plan, i'd like to see it.

by larry on Dec 21, 2007 9:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

its in my head

KW told me. he never put it down on paper becasue he knew people like you would ask for it if things didnt go according to plan.

12/12/07- We'll miss you Andy Gonzalez

by The Deacon on Dec 21, 2007 9:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Our bench right now...

Jason Bourgeois
Toby Hall
Jerry Owens
Pablo Ozuna
Juan Uribe

by SSH2005 on Dec 21, 2007 8:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

if thats our bench now

whos in CF?

12/12/07- We'll miss you Andy Gonzalez

by The Deacon on Dec 21, 2007 8:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm assuming Kenny isn't a total joke of a GM...

and manages to acquire a CF'er.

by SSH2005 on Dec 21, 2007 8:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

well

thats not a safe assumption yet... hahahaha. I just dont get the feeling that he is going to get cameron. its too obvious of a move to make, and KW really never seems to make those obvious moves.

12/12/07- We'll miss you Andy Gonzalez

by The Deacon on Dec 21, 2007 9:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs