Yep, Josh Fields can't hit fastballs
After looking at the White Sox Pitch Type Data for the returning starting pitchers, I decided to see if we could learn anything from the available pitch type data for our hitters. Well, just Josh Fields for now, but I plan on expanding that in the near future.
Again, I'll point you towards The Hardball Times article with league averages and let you draw your own conclusions from Fields' data.
I've included Contact%, which isn't included in the THT article, but is available on all player pages at Baseball-Reference.com. I don't have the pitch-type data for contact rate, but you can see just how much trouble Fields has with the fastball through this method.
The ML average contact rate (for all pitches) is 80%; Fields checks in at 72% overall and 73.3% for our sample. The average Major Leaguer swings and misses (WHIFF%) at just 6% of the fastballs thrown; Fields is more than doubles that rate at 14%, and makes contact less than 70% of the time he moves the bat off his shoulder against fastballs.
I'd have to take a look at the data from other high-strikeout sluggers to form an opinion about whether Fields inability to hit pedestrian fastballs will keep him from becoming a major leaguer. But right now, I think we can at least back up what we all saw over the course of the season with some hard data. Fields does not handle the fastball well at all.
[Hardball Times] [Josh Kalk's Pitch f/x tool] [Josh Fields Pitch Type Data]
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He already is a major leaguer, no?
by winningugly on Dec 28, 2007 2:20 PM CST 0 recs
Technically
He's a dangerous hitter with good bat speed, but he has to change/shorten his load phase or pitchers are going to discover they can blow him away with 89MPH fastballs.
by The Cheat on
Dec 28, 2007 2:30 PM CST
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On another topic,
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7611338
Don't eff with us in Florida, boy!
by winningugly on Dec 28, 2007 2:24 PM CST 0 recs
man, that's horrible
by Nordhagen on
Dec 28, 2007 3:10 PM CST
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I'm also not a big fan of the fact
by MarketMaker on Dec 28, 2007 2:31 PM CST 0 recs
caveats
and while he may have had some trouble with the change up, he was much closer to league average there than he is against a fastball, which is obviously the most thrown pitch in baseball.
League Averages
+-----------+-------+---------+-------+-----------+---------+
| PitchType | Ball% | Called% | Foul% | Swinging% | InPlay% |
+-----------+-------+---------+-------+-----------+---------+
| FB | 0.36 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| SL | 0.36 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| Curve | 0.40 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| Change | 0.40 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.21 |
+-----------+-------+---------+-------+-----------+---------+
| All | 0.37 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
+-----------+-------+---------+-------+-----------+---------+
InPlay - includes home runs
by The Cheat on
Dec 28, 2007 2:38 PM CST
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Added Jerry Owens to the data
by The Cheat on Dec 28, 2007 2:32 PM CST 0 recs
What's the formula you're using?
by ChicagoPete on Dec 28, 2007 3:06 PM CST 0 recs
WHIFF% and Foul%
Contact% is exactly what it sounds like. The players contact rate [(hits+fouls+in play outs)/(hits+fouls+strikesSwinging+in play outs)] on pitches swung at... It's a subset of the other measures..
by The Cheat on
Dec 28, 2007 3:16 PM CST
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Got it, that makes sense thx
by ChicagoPete on
Dec 28, 2007 3:26 PM CST
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After looking at Cust's data
I've updated the link, and now the first 5 columns should add up to 100%.
by The Cheat on
Dec 28, 2007 10:51 PM CST
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Outstanding
by ChicagoPete on
Dec 30, 2007 6:59 AM CST
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Great stuff Cheat!
One thing that I was struck by as the season went on was Fields' pure power. He hit some absolute bombs, balls that went a lot farther than i thought they would off the bat. So I was intrigued and had been meaning to do a diary looking at that. This looks like a good place to post it.
Probably the best way to look at pure HR power these days is HR/AIR or HR/FB. HR/AIR I belive includes line drives and infield flys.
HR/AIR MLB leaders more than 300 PAs:
Carlos Pena 21.6%
Ryan Howard 21.1%
Jim Thome 21.0%
Jack Cust 20.6%
Alex Rodriguez 20.6%
Adam Dunn 17.9%
Ryan Braun 17.9%
Prince Fielder 17.3%
Barry Bonds 17.2%
Josh Fields 17.2%
For reference Konerko is the next best Sox at 12%, sig. far down the MLB list.
So 10th in MLB for HR/AIR. For HR/FB Fields ranked 9th in MLB with the same group of ten as for HR/AIR.
Another thing you may have noticed is that most of the folks on that list are lefties. Looking at righties. The list is:
A-rod
Braun
Fields
My interpretation is that he has the potential to be an elite power hitter if he can lower his K rate, especially on FB. I think he can still be a league average hitter wih even a small improvement in that category. Although I'm very interested as to the whiff% of the Thomes, Cust and Howard's of the world.
by bhoov on Dec 28, 2007 3:08 PM CST 0 recs
Matching my
by bhoov on
Dec 28, 2007 3:16 PM CST
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Can you learn to hit a fastball?
by ChicagoPete on
Dec 28, 2007 3:33 PM CST
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I think I would lean towards the former
So, did he adjust in Sept. with his decrease in K% or was that just normal variation around his mean? Don't know. But that's why I'll be interested to see what happens next year.
by bhoov on
Dec 28, 2007 3:53 PM CST
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I'm looking for comparables
Fields watched 62.5% of curveballs and 50% of sliders.
by The Cheat on
Dec 28, 2007 10:20 PM CST
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Not to put you to work, Cheat,
by palehose67 on Dec 28, 2007 3:08 PM CST 0 recs
Thome's data is interesting
Preliminarily, against fastballs, he WHIFFed at 9% of them, made contact 77+% of the time he swung, and hit most of his HR. Yet he only had a .199 BABIP on fastballs.
I suppose this is because when he got one he liked, he knew what to do with it, hitting HRs. You would think that he would still have a higher BABIP on fastballs given his ability to smoke them over the outfield wall.
by The Cheat on
Dec 28, 2007 3:42 PM CST
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Thome's data should be up
He put only 6.5% of curveballs into play versus 21% for league average, made contact 58% of the time he swung at them (though I don't have baseline for that), which seems really bad.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pu3ZedtKEM2tfiqXTQF4tQA&gid=3
by The Cheat on
Dec 28, 2007 3:57 PM CST
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something wrong with that data
by bhoov on
Dec 28, 2007 4:01 PM CST
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its incomplete....
by colintj on
Dec 28, 2007 4:24 PM CST
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That does seem like a big discrepency
Thome saw 2244 pitches this year, and pitch f/x only captured 1493 of them. So, I suppose he could have had some extreme "luck" during those other games... He only had 5 HR in those 750 pitches, so he was getting good results on BIP.
by The Cheat on
Dec 28, 2007 5:51 PM CST
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Cheat, did you know Kalk has
So, for example, we know that Fields can definitely handle below average fastballs, which is how he killed AAA so readily. I chose righties since he kills lefties anyway. He only whiffs way up in the zone there.
His work against above average fastballs is the stuff that hurts him. He whiffs 16% of the time and managed just as many HRs as against the below average fastballs on nearly 3 times as many pitches.
by colintj on Dec 28, 2007 4:59 PM CST 0 recs
It's like Lake Wobegon...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Dec 28, 2007 5:00 PM CST
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Some more stuff
The speed is around average, but he doesn't whiff with nearly the same frequency. So dealing with the vertical break is an aspect of his struggles it seems?
by colintj on Dec 28, 2007 5:33 PM CST 0 recs
I wonder...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Dec 28, 2007 5:36 PM CST 0 recs
Kittle will be at the fantasy camp
by winningugly on
Dec 28, 2007 7:04 PM CST
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I need to learn this stuff
Quick question to Cheat (or anyone else who cares to answer)... have the last two entries (the one on Danks as well as this one) pretty much listed most of the 'stuff' needed to grasp everything that's 'going on' here?
by CWSKeith on Dec 28, 2007 5:53 PM CST 0 recs
And by "stuff"
by CWSKeith on
Dec 28, 2007 5:54 PM CST
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Oops
by colintj on
Dec 28, 2007 6:08 PM CST
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It's not complicated at all
I haven't touched any of the pitch f/x data, I'm just using the provided tools to break down how some of our players have performed vs. league average.
by The Cheat on
Dec 28, 2007 5:59 PM CST
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I've been gathering links for future fantasy
Joh Walsh's opening salvo about the Sinker it's also a good primer as he checks out what the terminology means first
Josh Kalk examines an average pitcher
Dan Fox did some stuff on what it means to have a good eye
this might be the best one. a look at an average fastball, curve, slider and change that's where Cheat is getting these expected averages from
Walsh's pitch identification tutorial
Not pitch f/x, but still sweet: expected BABIP and such based on GB/LD/FB from Dan Fox's blog
Also not pitch f/x, but it is THT
...this examines reliever usage and whether over-use is responsible for some of the wild fluctuations we see in reliever performance
by colintj on
Dec 28, 2007 6:07 PM CST
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Thanks Colin
by CWSKeith on
Dec 28, 2007 7:39 PM CST
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keine problem
by colintj on
Dec 28, 2007 10:26 PM CST
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first
by Soulja Boy on Dec 28, 2007 6:53 PM CST 0 recs
Konerko vs. Fields
by 3E8 on Dec 28, 2007 8:15 PM CST 0 recs
low pitches

And here are all of Fields swing-and-misses as captured by pitch f/x...

by The Cheat on
Dec 28, 2007 8:55 PM CST
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Nice confirmation
by 3E8 on
Dec 28, 2007 9:17 PM CST
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If we could get even more granular
by ChicagoPete on
Dec 30, 2007 7:03 AM CST
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Added Konerko
by The Cheat on
Dec 28, 2007 9:36 PM CST
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That's pretty awesome
by colintj on
Dec 29, 2007 12:27 AM CST
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One technique Fields could use
by southsideirish71 on
Dec 29, 2007 1:26 AM CST
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Walker
by southsideirish71 on
Dec 29, 2007 1:27 AM CST
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SSI, you are right on
Are you the ghost of Teddy Ballgame?
by winningugly on
Dec 29, 2007 6:42 AM CST
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Or the ghost of my grandpa.
Struck out three times in 28 games.
by Sox Machine on
Dec 29, 2007 2:26 PM CST
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pshaw
by larry on
Dec 29, 2007 2:28 PM CST
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Yes, but Jim was 7 years old
by winningugly on
Dec 29, 2007 2:47 PM CST
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*Thank* you
by Sox Machine on
Dec 29, 2007 2:48 PM CST
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excuse after excuse
by larry on
Dec 29, 2007 2:54 PM CST
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In other words
by Sox Machine on
Dec 29, 2007 3:25 PM CST
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coach fox was saying just that
by larry on
Dec 29, 2007 3:30 PM CST
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I still have the bubble gum
by winningugly on
Dec 29, 2007 2:55 PM CST
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Unfortunate
To be fair to him, he flashed elite power potential last season -- more than potential really, since 23 HRs tied him 21st in the AL. And he was more athletic than I thought he would be; I think he could be a very good LF.
But it really seems like his offensive production is unsustainable with his current technique. And who knows if he can generate the same kind of power numbers with loading as he currently does. What's doubly troubling is that I have no faith that the Sox coaching staff can help Fields out in any way.
by hitlesswonder on Dec 28, 2007 11:37 PM CST 0 recs
I too thought of that
by 3E8 on
Dec 29, 2007 1:10 AM CST
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He's well past .200 ISO
by colintj on
Dec 29, 2007 8:59 PM CST
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Poorly worded
by 3E8 on
Dec 29, 2007 11:36 PM CST
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he's got plenty of power
by colintj on
Dec 30, 2007 12:22 AM CST
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And also -- thanks Cheat
by hitlesswonder on Dec 28, 2007 11:38 PM CST 0 recs
And informatively fantastic.
by Hazymania on
Dec 29, 2007 12:36 AM CST
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yes nice work, two bats up!
walker's multi-year extension must be close...
by The Wizard on
Dec 29, 2007 2:28 PM CST
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Cheat
by bhoov on Dec 29, 2007 4:03 PM CST 0 recs
I wouldn't call Reynolds a better hitter
(Fields BABIP was .293 last season)
The NL West must not have had a whole lot of pitch f/x enabled parks, because we've only got 1/2 of Reynolds pitches seen captured. In that time, he did strike out on more fastballs than Fields and had a worse contact rate. But he was also much worse on breaking balls (as you would expect from a high-strikeout guy). He WHIFFed at 25+% of sliders thrown, for example.
Gomes is a guy to whom I've often compared Fields in the past. We have even less data on him than we do Reynolds (about 1/3rd of his ABs). He's your standard high-strikeout guy who can't hit breaking stuff. The thing that I noticed is that he seemed to have more pitches called for strikes against him.
Cust I kinda covered last night. I'll put together a spreadsheet of high-strikeout guys by the end of the weekend... At which point, I think we'll have come to the conclusion that Fields is a unique ballplayer. Whether those unique tools will play at the major league level will be up for discussion.
by The Cheat on
Dec 29, 2007 5:06 PM CST
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plugging in some numbers
I think it's telling that the only players we can find with truly similar numbers are what you would consider not-fully-formed, young players who, similarly, will have to adjust to become perennial above-average-to-all-star major league players.
by The Cheat on
Dec 29, 2007 5:44 PM CST
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My bet is
by colintj on
Dec 29, 2007 8:12 PM CST
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Usually they can't hit the breaking ball
The guys who can't catch up to the fastball are usually at the end of their careers. The dearly departed Erstad was like that last year, early in the season they were just pumping heat down the middle of the plate on him and not even bothering with any breaking stuff. If he somehow got around on it he'd break his bat and dribble it to 2B.
This kind of data is dangerous. I expect Fields is going to be attacked with a lot of high heat by every team next year, let's see what he does.
by ChicagoPete on
Dec 30, 2007 7:11 AM CST
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Erstad wasn't whiffing though
by colintj on
Dec 30, 2007 4:47 PM CST
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HOW BOUT THAT SHIT
by colintj on
Jan 2, 2008 1:20 AM CST
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Great game - very glad you upheld
by winningugly on
Jan 2, 2008 12:34 PM CST
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