Zen and the Art of Roster Construction
The White Sox opening day roster is all but set
Anderson Wins Spring Competition; Will Open Season as 4th Outfielder
Entering the spring, the Sox were supposedly holding an open competition for the center field job. It quickly became apparent that was not the case as Ozzie Guillen heaped praise on Darin Erstad at every opportunity while giving him more at bats than anyone else in the Cactus League. You could argue that he just wanted to see what Erstad could do, but you'd have to ignore the copious amount of quotes about all the grinderish qualities -- known, but unquantifiable qualities -- that only Darin Erstad brought to the club.
Despite what some around here may say, Anderson says he didn't walk to the plate with enough confidence last year.
Expect the Sox to carry three lefties
If I'm reading into this Ozzie quote correctly -- and I believe that I am -- it sounds like he plans on keeping both of the Logan/Sisco big, erratic lefty tandem as the team heads north.
Back to Wikiality
Wiki Gonzalez must not have called a very good game today. He was sent to minor league camp while Gustavo Molina appears destined to be carrying a .084 batting average in May when the Sox finally decide to look for a competent backup catcher.
At least we got that problem against lefties all nailed down.
The 2006 White Sox ranked 25th in baseball in OPS vs. LHP. And thanks to number of tough lefties within the division they just happened to have 150 more at-bats against LHP than any other team in baseball, about 400 more than the major league average. They fixed that problem by leading the league in 4th outfielders (Anderson, Podsednik, Erstad, Mackowiak, Ozuna), only one of whom can hit LHP, and none who hit for above average power. The only other spot in the lineup that is looking at a change from last year is backup catcher, which I assume we don't need to go over anymore. Hall would have been a very nice upgrade, but it appears that the Sox are looking to do the unpossible, as Ralph Wiggum would say. They've got a fighting chance to get worse production from their backup back stop this year.
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pods in, perez out: TRAVESTY!
In fact, Guillen explained how the White Sox tried to make trades to open a spot for Perez, but nothing ever materialized. Guillen also believed that Perez should look for a big-league job, with the option open of coming back to the White Sox system if nothing else works.
"Believe me, if we had any spot for him -- we tried all kinds of stuff. He knows it. We made him aware we're going to try do it -- if this thing doesn't work, this thing doesn't work. Well, nothing worked."
please kenny, kick pods...
by The Wizard on
Mar 27, 2007 11:05 PM CDT
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I agree...
by hitlesswonder on
Mar 27, 2007 11:11 PM CDT
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I'd bet that if...
Seriously, this is the most depressed I've been about an Opening Day roster in a while. I'm starting to think that 72-90 might not be far off the mark.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Mar 28, 2007 10:37 AM CDT
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Baseball Prospectus
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6023
Although 72 - 90 might be more on target.
It's ALL ABOUT PITCHING and DEFENSE. If the pitching looks like 2005 instead of 2006, they'll contend.
by ballyb on
Mar 28, 2007 10:49 AM CDT
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So far...
The pitching actually worries me less than the defense.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Mar 28, 2007 11:01 AM CDT
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Spring training
Our starters had a 4.65 ERA last year, good for 8th best in the AL. If we are worse than that then BP will be right. I just think that's extremely unlikely to happen. All of the other projection systems are much more optimisitic. They project our big 4 starters to have around a 4.25 ERA on average. If you project the 5th starter to have an ERA around 5, that brings your average to 4.40 (considering the 5th starter is likely to pitch less this is generous). That would be around 50 less runs and would have been 4th in the AL last year.
That's not even counting our bullpen. Even though we have some volatile relievers there's no way that they'll be worse than the Politte/Cotts bullpen of last year. If only because Ozzie won't stick with ineffective, non-championship relievers for very long.
I just don't see us losing 90 games anymore than I see Detroit losing 90 games. Could it happen? Sure. But it would have to be an absolute worse case scenario for almost every player.
That could happen to anybody. Even the Yankees. I mean they are starting Carl Pavano on opening day. If Wang and pettite are both out, Clemens doesn't come on board and Igawa is ineffective they're in trouble. Yes that's a lot of things that would have to happen, but that's exactly the point. If everything turns against you any team could lose 90 games. It's just extremely unlikely that everything will go wrong even if PECOTA says that it will. I'd definitely take a bet on the over even using the 77 wins. Any takers?
by bhoov on
Mar 28, 2007 12:32 PM CDT
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I'd take the over...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Mar 28, 2007 1:42 PM CDT
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I'm very interested to know...
by Tony82087 on
Mar 28, 2007 11:02 AM CDT
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That, and...
Plus, the Twins have a stellar bullpen, unlike the White Sox, who have a bunch of plus arms that have no idea how to pitch.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Mar 28, 2007 11:07 AM CDT
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TWINKIES
by Toonderstrook on
Mar 28, 2007 12:15 PM CDT
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They still have a stellar bullpen.
I have very little confidence that anyone in the Sox bullpen can stay both healthy and effective all season long.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Mar 28, 2007 12:21 PM CDT
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true
the twinkies also had a stellar bullpen in 2005, 2004, 2003...see a pattern?
by larry on
Mar 28, 2007 12:28 PM CDT
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Indeed.
by Toonderstrook on
Mar 28, 2007 12:39 PM CDT
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And...
by Toonderstrook on
Mar 28, 2007 12:40 PM CDT
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It's hard not to have a doomsday attitude.
They're depending on three over-30 sluggers and a third baseman with a bad back to carry them through the season. They'll need a whole lot of luck to contend.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Mar 28, 2007 12:54 PM CDT
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You forgot to mention
by Paxson Jackson on
Mar 28, 2007 1:04 PM CDT
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disagree completely....
They project us to score 773, almost 100 runs less than last year and similar to the production of offensively challenged Oakland A's. The weird thing about these projections is they are from essentially the same team as last year. Garcia is the only real change. As bad as Erstad is he won't be worse than BA was last year (although I think we all agree that he'll be worse than BA will be THIS year.) Will there be some regression in the hitters? yes. but 100 runs?
The bottom line is that BP thinks we'll have the offense of the A's and the pitching of the Devil Rays. There's just no way that BOTH of those things will happen. And JRE you're just reading way too much into meaningless ST games where we rarely even have all of our starters in the game.
by bhoov on
Mar 28, 2007 1:08 PM CDT
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I hear you, Toonder,
Do we (I) feel that same anticipation today for '07? Other than the traditional "you never know!" attitude that keeps even Devil Rays fans coming back for more I don't see/feel/hear it.
I hope I'm SO wrong, and hear about it all year long. I wouldn't bet that way, though.
by winningugly on
Mar 28, 2007 12:58 PM CDT
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I know
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/baseballs-deepest-starting-rotations/
I've found that The Hardball Times is pretty legitimate.
by ballyb on
Mar 28, 2007 11:13 AM CDT
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Well, the White Sox...
Right now, the Charlotte rotation looks like it might be Gavin Floyd-Gio Gonzalez-Charlie Haeger-Heath Phillips-Lance Broadway. They're not at the level of Garza or Perkins, but if Danks bombs out, the Sox should be able to find someone to give them decent innings.
The fifth starter doesn't worry me. It's the other four that worry me.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Mar 28, 2007 11:21 AM CDT
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Really?
by hitlesswonder on
Mar 28, 2007 11:30 AM CDT
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I think Haeger's...
I'm not really comparing the Sox and Twins minor-league pitching, because the Twins have major-league pitching (Garza, Perkins, Baker) masquerading as minor-league pitching until they are reminded that Ortiz, Ponson and Silva are horrible. They don't count, IMO.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Mar 28, 2007 11:35 AM CDT
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Haeger
As far as the starting rotation - Garland should be good, the other 3 worry me. (Not including Danks here) The other 3 demonstrated the same as we finished with last year, with the exception of Vasquez, which wasn't waiting till the 6th inning to get hammered.
I really don't have any expectations for them this year - I just plan on taking my son to the games and will enjoy the time spent with him. (Trying to keep the frustration to a minimal at this point - I'm finding myself getting to aggravated already)
Here's hoping its just a ST mentality that Ozzie and the team have and they will adjust when the season starts.
by Brush Back on
Mar 28, 2007 11:52 AM CDT
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Five reasons.
- Johan Santana.
- Boof Bonser.
- Matt Garza.
- Kevin Slowey
- Scott Baker.
by Dongfang Hong on
Mar 28, 2007 11:58 AM CDT
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I assume that the Sox were trying to trade...
by SSH2005 on
Mar 27, 2007 11:13 PM CDT
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That Mackowiak for Brady Clark rumor...
by SSH2005 on
Mar 27, 2007 11:21 PM CDT
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i think perez killed his chances
by larry on
Mar 28, 2007 8:55 AM CDT
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Is it just me or has this season gone to crap...
- Toby Hall is likely out for the season.
- Kenny seems content with Gustavo Molina as our backup catcher.
- Darin Erstad is our starting center fielder.
- Brian Anderson is our fourth outfielder.
- Eduardo Perez was just released.
by SSH2005 on
Mar 27, 2007 11:10 PM CDT
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if 80% of the moves involve the bench
by asinwreck on
Mar 28, 2007 7:30 AM CDT
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More Garbage
the White Sox have two fleet-footed, adept handlers of the bat sitting at the top of their potent offensive attack.
You better handle the hell out of the bat if you're not going to get on base or hit for any power, and in Pods case, play adequate defense.
But the White Sox also will have two left-handed hitters working back-to-back, meaning manager Ozzie Guillen might juggle the order to avoid having a third straight left-handed hitter in Jim Thome.
Clearly, the problem is Thome. Let's trade his ass.
We could just put a right-handed hitter with an above average OBP at the top of the lineup, you know, like, maybe, Iguchi..
Judging by last year's statistics, the most effective order would have Thome hitting third, Konerko sitting fourth and Dye hitting fifth. Thome batted .292 with 34 home runs and 88 RBIs in the third spot during his first year with the White Sox, Konerko hit .303 with 28 home runs and 88 RBIs batting cleanup and Dye became an AL Most Valuable Player candidate with a .315 average, 30 home runs and 80 RBIs from the fifth slot.
This is just lazy use of statistics. The passage should more accurately read: Judging by last years most frequently used batting order... I mean what does he expect, of course their counting stats are going to be highest in the spot they spent the majority of the time last year. And don't think for a second that I'm going to buy that their spot in the batting order has any tangible effect on each players rate stats. Any fluctuation one way or the other is just noise around his true talent.
Ugh. I could go on. It just sucks that I feel so poorly about the season when it hasn't even started yet.
Now I can imagine what Gleeman felt like last year with Liriano opening in the pen, Lohse in the rotation, and the left side of the infield with immobile out-makers.
by The Cheat on
Mar 27, 2007 11:13 PM CDT
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Are you on the "Merkin SUCKS" bandwagon?
by SSH2005 on
Mar 27, 2007 11:25 PM CDT
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I understand his job
Sometimes I just feel the need to cancel out what he writes though.
by The Cheat on
Mar 27, 2007 11:28 PM CDT
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Absolutely dead-on
Agree with asinwreck - we can get caught up in the minutae and miss the big picture, but I think the big picture is that we were not good enough last year and are no better, if not worse, this year. Thus, is our competition equal or better? I think the Tiggers will jettison T. Jones and immediately be a better team, and Shef is an upgrade, too. Injuns already being handed the division by the wags in SI (I don't agree, though I think they'll be better this year). So at best we again look to be 3rd (which is great for Gale Sayers but no cigar for us - if you don't get the reference, read his autobiography title).
I think KW, for whatever reason, hasn't been aggressive enough in fixing our 2006 weaknesses, as he did (or at least we thought he did) in the 2005-2006 offseason. Maybe because his moves in '05-'06 looked great but didn't bring a championship.
Will keep an open mind and heart - 2005 has bought that, and as a Sox fan I'm used to having to deal with disappointment, but I'm still hopeful this is not the team we end the year with.
by winningugly on
Mar 28, 2007 8:10 AM CDT
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While I agree and am
Unfortunately, that mainly hedges on our pitching, which was god-awful in Arizona.
by chrome on
Mar 28, 2007 1:01 PM CDT
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Pessimistic
by Brush Back on
Mar 28, 2007 1:05 PM CDT
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I'm generally addled
by dyspeptic on
Mar 30, 2007 2:07 PM CDT
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Moving Iguchi
My new most hated baseball cliche is "handle the bat". As far as I can tell it translates to something like "handle the bat in such a way as to not hit for power nor get on base at a reasonable rate". The fact that there are people who view Erstad as an ideal #2 hitter just boggles my mind. The fact that some of these people run the Sox is both mind-boggling and terribly unfortunate.
by hitlesswonder on
Mar 27, 2007 11:25 PM CDT
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Iguchi...
Then, he puts up a .352 OBP in his second full season. Iguchi might put up a .362 OBP in the second spot this season -- HELL, WE BETTER MOVE HIM!!! So retarded.
Ozzie's love for speedy leadoff-type guys with crappy OBP's is going to kill our team. Ozzie is turning into Dusty Baker. I used to laugh at my Cubs fan buddy when Dusty put Juan Pierre / Corey Patterson / Neifi Perez in some combination of 1-2 at the top of his lineup. Ozzie is just as bad.
by SSH2005 on
Mar 27, 2007 11:32 PM CDT
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It's heresy...
Actually, I think the season will be better than that. And if it's not, I'll at least be interested in seeing what Williams will get at the trade deadline for the veterans that he's sure to deal.
by hitlesswonder on
Mar 27, 2007 11:44 PM CDT
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From the trib...
OK, Haeger for Torrealba! Who's with me on this?
In reality, I doubt the Rox would trade their only experienced C. I hope the Sox don't trade Haeger for just a bag of balls. He's the only AAA SP I'd have some confidence in if Danks fails.
by hitlesswonder on
Mar 27, 2007 11:15 PM CDT
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I would like Torrealba or any decent backup C...
by SSH2005 on
Mar 27, 2007 11:18 PM CDT
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I agree...
by hitlesswonder on
Mar 27, 2007 11:26 PM CDT
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Yeah
It's no secret that while I'm a fan of Charlie's, I don't really like the idea of a knuckleballer on my team. It's excruciatingly painful to watch. I'll continue to hope that he pitches well and that we'll be able to sell him at an inflated price to a team in need of a durable 5-6th starter
by The Cheat on
Mar 27, 2007 11:26 PM CDT
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But I'm guessing that you wouldn't trade Haeger...
by SSH2005 on
Mar 27, 2007 11:34 PM CDT
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I'd trade him -
Not in love w/ Haeger. He was supposed to compete as the 5th starter and hasn't made it. A knucksie reliever would be just as bad. If there is trade value and we can address a gaping need (and it is gaping - what if AJ gets hurt?) why not do it?
by winningugly on
Mar 28, 2007 8:14 AM CDT
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Insightful, Ugly
by Toonderstrook on
Mar 28, 2007 8:45 AM CDT
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Somewhere "The Truth"
I wonder if we can insert a "No WWE" clause in AJ's contract.
by winningugly on
Mar 28, 2007 12:59 PM CDT
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Colorado
by the wimperoo on
Mar 27, 2007 11:31 PM CDT
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I was thinking the same thing
by The Cheat on
Mar 27, 2007 11:40 PM CDT
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Why not claim Rivera?
From MIL Journal-Sentinel: Catcher [Mike] Rivera clears waivers
[Mike] Rivera, the Brewers' No. 3 catcher, cleared waivers and was sent to Class AAA Nashville on Tuesday. The Brewers had feared losing Rivera to a waiver claim.
A week earlier, JD Closser cleared waivers and was sent to Nashville, although he has remained in the big-league camp.
...
Third baseman Corey Koskie returned to Minnesota to continue physical therapy in an effort to recover from post-concussion syndrome. Yost said it was too frustrating for Koskie to remain with the team until the end of camp.
Do the Brewers need a backup 3B? Too bad they the Sox couldn't have traded Mack there for a C + something else and kept Perez. Alas.
by hitlesswonder on
Mar 27, 2007 11:34 PM CDT
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Retarded...
by SSH2005 on
Mar 27, 2007 11:41 PM CDT
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Rivera
by hitlesswonder on
Mar 27, 2007 11:46 PM CDT
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You know...
After a week straight of worrying and stressing...I'm just going to wait for the season to start and see how things work out. We're just going to have to accept things like the fact that Brian Anderson will become the new Ross Gload. A guy who we all want to see getting more playing time but who will be lucky to see the plate more than once every ten games. Ozzie will always make bizzare moves that make no sense to anyone but him...so I guess we just have to live with it. Just brace yourself for a few games where Ozuna is given the outfield start over Brian.
by Brent Brookhouse on
Mar 28, 2007 8:38 AM CDT
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Ironic since Gload is now due for a lot more AB's.
A strict platoon would leave the lefty-hitting Gload with most of the at-bats, but it's unclear if that'll happen. Whatever the case, Brown wasn't happy with the news. "I don't have a reaction to it," Brown said. "What am I going to do about it?"
Source: Kansas City Star
by SSH2005 on
Mar 28, 2007 8:46 AM CDT
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Platooning Gload in left
by chrome on
Mar 28, 2007 1:07 PM CDT
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Why do that...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Mar 28, 2007 1:09 PM CDT
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True. Gload would just clog the bases up
by chrome on
Mar 28, 2007 2:21 PM CDT
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But at least Ozzie will
I'm just very happy he made the team. Now I'm hoping he hits lights-out, and forces his way into more than a caddy role.
by Chiburb on
Mar 28, 2007 9:15 AM CDT
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Man, Scott Hairston would look awesome...
He hit 3 homers in 2 innings (4 and 5) a game yesterday, all against Josh Fogg. He has 6 homers on the Spring.
by SSH2005 on
Mar 28, 2007 9:59 AM CDT
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the good news
by shaftr on
Mar 28, 2007 10:15 AM CDT
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I suspect...
I'm hoping that Ryan Sweeney breaks through this year and is ready to play ASAP, because Peter Pan and Tinkerbell are going to wear out the disabled list.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Mar 28, 2007 11:31 AM CDT
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Hmm
by quartz77277 on
Mar 28, 2007 12:03 PM CDT
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Doubtful
But Gustavo Molina has won the backup catcher's job and Brian Anderson will be the backup center fielder despite Guillen's acknowledgement Anderson should have started the season at Triple-A Charlotte to be assured of more playing time.
by Brush Back on
Mar 28, 2007 12:30 PM CDT
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good
by larry on
Mar 28, 2007 12:36 PM CDT
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Like I said...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Mar 28, 2007 12:43 PM CDT
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It would help
Also I wish they took a poll of the 11 Sox pitchers coming North to decide who the regular CF should be. I'd take my chances!!
by ballyb on
Mar 28, 2007 12:53 PM CDT
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I think Williams likes Anderson
Granted that's all guesswork, but we are on the internet after all. We're supposed to rumormonger and post unreliable info.
by hitlesswonder on
Mar 28, 2007 1:25 PM CDT
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That's what I've been thinking too
I remember KW winning the Chicago Rookie of the Year award, and in his speech giving all credit to Fregosi (his manager)for this simple advice: "Stay small". Which KW explained meant don't swing for the fences, just make good contact and play solid D, and the good things will happen.
I can see KW saying the same to BA, and hoping for the best. Despite Ozzie.
by Chiburb on
Mar 28, 2007 2:02 PM CDT
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prodigious memory
I love watchng him play centerfield and I suspect he will do so somewhere else for 10 years
by dyspeptic on
Mar 30, 2007 2:15 PM CDT
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CC
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070328&content_id=1863204&vkey=spt2007news&fex t=.jsp
by bhoov on
Mar 28, 2007 1:12 PM CDT
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I just heard on 670
by Option27 on
Mar 28, 2007 1:22 PM CDT
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i would imagine neither side
by larry on
Mar 28, 2007 2:04 PM CDT
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They want to see...
by CWSKeith on
Mar 28, 2007 2:05 PM CDT
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I
by dantesox on
Mar 28, 2007 2:33 PM CDT
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Since when...
Javier Lopez will not be on the White Sox.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Mar 28, 2007 2:36 PM CDT
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i think it's more javy
by larry on
Mar 28, 2007 2:38 PM CDT
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I
by dantesox on
Mar 28, 2007 2:41 PM CDT
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my guess is that there has been contact
by larry on
Mar 28, 2007 2:48 PM CDT
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