The Count
Jim previews Jose's 2008 performance and points to the differences among the various projection systems (I added his 2006 and 2007 seasons):
| Projection |
G |
IP |
W-L |
ERA |
H |
R |
ER |
HR |
K |
BB |
WHIP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
K/BB |
HR/9 |
AVG |
BABIP |
| 2006 |
30 |
196 |
13-9 |
4.27 |
194 |
101 |
93 |
20 |
134 |
55 |
1.27 |
6.15 |
2.53 |
2.44 |
0.92 |
.260 |
.294 |
| 2007 |
32 |
189 |
10-17 |
5.67 |
232 |
134 |
117 |
21 |
113 |
62 |
1.56 |
5.38 |
2.95 |
1.82 |
1.00 |
.303 |
.334 |
| Bill James | 31 |
196 |
10-12 |
4.27 |
200 |
23 |
141 |
70 |
1.38 |
6.47 |
3.21 |
2.01 |
1.06 |
.266 |
.301 |
||
| CHONE | 195 |
4.75 |
213 |
112 |
103 |
24 |
119 |
66 |
1.43 |
5.49 |
3.05 |
1.80 |
1.11 |
.279 |
.305 |
||
| Marcel | 173 |
10-11 |
4.84 |
190 |
104 |
93 |
19 |
115 |
60 |
1.45 |
5.98 |
3.12 |
1.92 |
0.99 |
.280 |
.314 |
|
| ZiPS | 28 |
175 |
11-11 |
4.73 |
194 |
92 |
20 |
96 |
58 |
||||||||
| SoxMachine | 28 |
175 |
8-13 |
5.31 |
199 |
18 |
119 |
52 |
1.43 |
What's your 2008 projections?
- The Sox announced the 2008 Spring Training Broadcast Schedule.
- Kevin Goldstein published his 2008 Top 100 prospects list (Goldstein's chat on his Top 100).
- Not to be outdone, Keith Law also introduces his top 100 prospects. Noticeably absent, Gio Gonzalez, unless I'm blind.
- Ben Bradler published Part 2 of his Fastball Speed study.
- Tango created a Sabermetric Wiki.
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89 comments
Comments
id be elated with
by The Deacon on
Jan 31, 2008 2:06 PM CST
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you'll notice the salient difference
by larry on
Jan 31, 2008 2:17 PM CST
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spot on, of course.
by Toonderstrook on
Jan 31, 2008 2:37 PM CST
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Wow.
by Shoeless In SC on
Jan 31, 2008 5:46 PM CST
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i think they're more looking at his past
by larry on
Jan 31, 2008 5:51 PM CST
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Goldstein's chat
Chris (Chicago): Is Aaron Poreda the only hope White Sox fans have?
Kevin Goldstein: Even though he's pretty high on their prospect list, and would be a sleeper in other systems -- I really do kind of have a feeling about John Shelby. Call me crazy.
More love for Shelby. If he hits as well as he did last year, I'd imagine he'll be in the discussion for next year's Top 100.
Since Gio is gone, my 'one prospect man-love' is completely on Shelby, so even the slightest mention will be posted (by me).
Goldstein also mentioned that Daniel Cortes was on the cusp of making the Top 100.
by CWSKeith on
Jan 31, 2008 2:21 PM CST
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Who did the Sox get for him, again?
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Jan 31, 2008 2:23 PM CST
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Yes -- MacDougal for Lumsden, Cortes
by CWSKeith on
Jan 31, 2008 2:26 PM CST
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wasn't bj lamura part of that trade?
by The Wizard on
Jan 31, 2008 2:28 PM CST
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I don't think so
by CWSKeith on
Jan 31, 2008 2:29 PM CST
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Err
by CWSKeith on
Jan 31, 2008 2:29 PM CST
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oh yeah
July 23, 2006: Traded by the Los Angeles Dodgers to the Chicago White Sox for B.J. LaMura (minors).
by The Wizard on
Jan 31, 2008 2:34 PM CST
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keith.
by Toonderstrook on
Jan 31, 2008 3:02 PM CST
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Yeah -- terrible game
It also hurts that Toews is still out and isn't expected back until mid-February.
by CWSKeith on
Jan 31, 2008 3:51 PM CST
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if they don't start showing a spark
by Toonderstrook on
Jan 31, 2008 3:54 PM CST
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think maybe they need that chip on their shoulder?
by larry on
Jan 31, 2008 3:57 PM CST
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Gio was mine too
by marco054 on
Jan 31, 2008 2:52 PM CST
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man there are a lot of former
by colintj on
Jan 31, 2008 2:26 PM CST
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Seeing as how
by bhoov on
Jan 31, 2008 2:34 PM CST
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morgan ensberg signed with the yankees
one less option for 3B...
by The Wizard on
Jan 31, 2008 2:37 PM CST
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Keith Law
by The Cheat on
Jan 31, 2008 2:37 PM CST
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Weird
by marco054 on
Jan 31, 2008 2:46 PM CST
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I don't think it's an oversight either
by The Cheat on
Jan 31, 2008 2:48 PM CST
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From recent memory
by The Deacon on
Jan 31, 2008 2:49 PM CST
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Goldstein chats
by colintj on
Jan 31, 2008 2:39 PM CST
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*annoyingly
by colintj on
Jan 31, 2008 2:40 PM CST
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Don't be shocked
Keith Law is simply copying both BA and Kevin under the guise of ESPN. It's basically rankings for the sake of rankings and serves no real purpose other than to sell subscriptions and books to fantasy players. Whether or not Colby Rasmus is a better prospect than Cameron Maybin really doesn't make any difference. They'll both get their shot.
by Bull Pain on
Jan 31, 2008 6:04 PM CST
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dallas mcpherson to the marlins
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=3892
by larry on
Jan 31, 2008 3:02 PM CST
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What happened to McPherson...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Jan 31, 2008 3:04 PM CST
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bet you've never heard this before about a 3B
by larry on
Jan 31, 2008 3:25 PM CST
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Pretty obvious that Crede is headed to the Giants.
- Dallas McPherson to the Marlins.
- Morgan Ensberg to the Yankees.
by SSH2005 on
Jan 31, 2008 3:21 PM CST
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Marlins also sign Luis Gonzalez...
The deal, which is likely to include a guaranteed salary of approximately $2 million and incentives worth up to $1 million, is contingent on Gonzalez passing a physical.
Gonzalez, 40, is expected to fill a combination of roles, including left field and first base, and serve as a mentor for the Marlins' younger players.
by SSH2005 on
Jan 31, 2008 3:28 PM CST
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here's something to think about
by larry on
Jan 31, 2008 3:29 PM CST
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Yes, like "concubine" or
by winningugly on
Jan 31, 2008 4:13 PM CST
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Mentors are generally grindy
by Tim from Texas on
Jan 31, 2008 3:51 PM CST
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Brad Wilkerson to the Mariners is official...
Sounds like the Erik Bedard trade will go down soon.
by SSH2005 on
Jan 31, 2008 4:43 PM CST
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Mariners sign Wilkerson for $3 million+incentives
He can make an extra $2 million in playing time incentives. Wilkerson will step in as the starting right fielder if and when Adam Jones is traded for Erik Bedard. He'll probably hit low in the order initially, and since Safeco will rob him of homers, he may not be much more than a $7-$9 fantasy outfielder.
This could turn out to be a very nice signing if Wilkerson is/stays healthy but Safeco will definitely hurt his power numbers.
by SSH2005 on
Jan 31, 2008 4:56 PM CST
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How [not] credible is this website?
At least two prospects?
by SSH2005 on
Jan 31, 2008 4:49 PM CST
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giants prospects
by colintj on
Jan 31, 2008 5:40 PM CST
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Johan Santana wants $26 million per season...
Still, he believes they'll eventually come to terms. According to Heyman, the Mets are offering about $21.5 million per year for six guaranteed seasons, while Santana is looking at closer to $26 million per season. If the Mets are indeed willing to go the full six years, without a vesting option, then there's every reason to think that the two sides will come to terms.
Source: SI.com
So Santana costs us around 3 losses every season. With him off the Twins, what do we gain -- about 2 wins? We still have to beat whomever replaces Johan but this will be a much easier conquest.
by SSH2005 on
Jan 31, 2008 6:34 PM CST
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no more tipping the cap
by Shoeless In SC on
Jan 31, 2008 6:58 PM CST
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nope
by larry on
Jan 31, 2008 7:04 PM CST
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hah...
by Shoeless In SC on
Jan 31, 2008 7:10 PM CST
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similarly,
the twins getting some of those mlb-ready guys would have taken a bit of the sheen off of saying adios to santana.
by Toonderstrook on
Jan 31, 2008 7:05 PM CST
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it's incredibly beneficial to the sox
by Shoeless In SC on
Jan 31, 2008 7:12 PM CST
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Why are our chances better?
by Grinder in Training on
Jan 31, 2008 9:24 PM CST
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2-3 wins could be
No, I don't really think this team is going to make the playoffs, but this is something that could help them on the way. Maybe if a few more dominoes fall the Sox will have a real shot.
by Shoeless In SC on
Jan 31, 2008 9:30 PM CST
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Uh ......no
Santana vs opp
Good Guys 4 GS (3-1)
Clev 6 GS (0-5)
Det 6 GS (1-3)
Not real scientific but 1 of these kids is doing his own thing vs Mr Santana.
I know I know they were better than "us" but the squad has obviously been his "bitch" for some time.
by Tdogg on
Feb 1, 2008 9:19 AM CST
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It's Ozzie's pre-game
by ballyb on
Feb 1, 2008 10:24 AM CST
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Isn't Santana the (active) pitcher with the most
by Raf on
Jan 31, 2008 11:23 PM CST
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i agree
by colintj on
Feb 1, 2008 11:03 AM CST
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I'd guess...
Hmm... looking at Cabrera's numbers (and I think Dayn Perry mentioned this in his article), I didn't realize he was so terrible in the second half. I wonder if it was wearing down or just 'regressing to the mean' (first half OPS of .810) -- if it was the former, maybe Ozzie should look at giving Uribe a (somewhat) decent amount of time at SS (for a backup -- I'm not looking for Uribe and Cabrera to be splitting time equally, obviously).
by CWSKeith on
Feb 1, 2008 11:45 AM CST
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That looks like...
I think we can count on Cabrera for a .700 - .725 OPS.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Feb 1, 2008 11:50 AM CST
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yup
by larry on
Feb 1, 2008 11:55 AM CST
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Still has to be an improvement
I like the team much better the last 3-4 weeks than I did in November, but I still think we are .500-ish, with a husk of a farm system. But anything can happen....
by winningugly on
Feb 1, 2008 12:44 PM CST
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Meh.
If he puts up a .320 OBP/ .370 SLG batting second (which is about what I expect), he's not really helping the team, either.
In a decent lineup, someone like Cabrera bats eighth.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Feb 1, 2008 12:49 PM CST
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In the span of 1 hour your expectations
He'll be better than Uribe and won't be awful as a #2 hitter - we were so horrible last year that any live body is an improvement. He'll be OK.
by winningugly on
Feb 1, 2008 12:52 PM CST
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Well...
I would like someone who's going to be batting at the top of the order to have more on-base skills than Cabrera does, that's all.
But I'm fine with Cabrera, as long as he's gone after 2008.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Feb 1, 2008 12:56 PM CST
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What happened to your range?
;)
by winningugly on
Feb 1, 2008 1:03 PM CST
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or maybe his stock will jump
by Toonderstrook on
Feb 1, 2008 12:56 PM CST
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*owings
by Toonderstrook on
Feb 1, 2008 12:57 PM CST
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in case it wasn't clear, that's our #2
by larry on
Feb 1, 2008 12:59 PM CST
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I think he'll be better than we had
by winningugly on
Feb 1, 2008 1:01 PM CST
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I think we just found our motto for 08
by Hazymania on
Feb 1, 2008 1:12 PM CST
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To expand...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Feb 1, 2008 1:03 PM CST
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isnt there still a chance
by The Deacon on
Feb 1, 2008 1:03 PM CST
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Sure, but...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Feb 1, 2008 1:04 PM CST
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well, back to the same point
by The Deacon on
Feb 1, 2008 1:06 PM CST
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Maybe...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Feb 1, 2008 1:08 PM CST
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well, yeah,
by Toonderstrook on
Feb 1, 2008 1:12 PM CST
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I had forgotten...
People laugh, but Uribe does have clear talent. It's just a question of whether he'll ever harness it.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Feb 1, 2008 1:16 PM CST
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If we don't have better than .702
Because it will be another brutal season. (Shudders.)
by winningugly on
Feb 1, 2008 1:12 PM CST
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I re-read this - I meant that if we don't have
by winningugly on
Feb 1, 2008 1:13 PM CST
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ha!
by The Deacon on
Feb 1, 2008 1:14 PM CST
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Relax...
I made a vow to myself a few days ago to keep that in mind, and not get too down on this team.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
Feb 1, 2008 1:13 PM CST
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Your comment a little
by dantesox on
Feb 1, 2008 1:26 PM CST
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Trib's view from a Sox fan
Did I miss something here?
What happened to Nick Masset? This guy should have gotten a much longer look at a starting spot in the rotation.
I know it was only one start but he pitched a great game against the Cubs -- 5.2 innings, three strikeouts and allowed only two runs. I say pretty good for his first start.
So answer this question...why wasn't he given another shot down the stretch? It would seem the bullpen isn't the best spot for him and is much more suited for a starting spot.
by The Cheat on
Jan 31, 2008 11:47 PM CST
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To his credit
by Sox Machine on
Feb 1, 2008 1:24 AM CST
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This was not me!
by ballyb on
Feb 1, 2008 8:10 AM CST
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A quote from MLBtraderumors.com...
Yeah, ummm Joe, your plane is boarding soon.
by SSH2005 on
Feb 1, 2008 1:02 AM CST
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So disappointed
by The Deacon on
Feb 1, 2008 7:28 AM CST
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wow
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=740
since it's unfiltered, it's free to everyone.
by larry on
Feb 1, 2008 1:12 PM CST
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Nice article - well reasoned
by winningugly on
Feb 1, 2008 1:17 PM CST
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well
by larry on
Feb 1, 2008 1:20 PM CST
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But his Paul Bunyan-esque status
The fact that he's smaller than the average bear probably helps, too - seems like an unintimidating guy, except to face with a bat in your hand.
by winningugly on
Feb 1, 2008 1:25 PM CST
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