Community Projection Results: Nick Swisher
Here are the results of your Nick Swisher projections in spreadsheet form.
For those who don't wish to scroll, that's a .274/.389/.516 line with 34 HR. The counting and rate stats don't quite match up, so the bottom row is Swisher's AVG/SLG based on the community projected counting stats.
Vote for the next community projection inside.
- Jim looks at the Owens-Quentin competition. Cowley looks at the Wassermann-Masset competition.
- MLBTR: Where Will The Starters Go? AL Central Edition.
- THT x3: 1) Do teams improve by firing their managers?, 2) Sal Baxamusa shows how hot and cold streaks can move projections, and 3) Pitcher similarity scores.
- And Carl's latest 'Smells Like Mascot' comic strips: Of The Monkey and the Longest Winter Ever and In Which the Monkey Continues to Grind.
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That would be a career best...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Feb 13, 2008 4:23 PM CST reply actions
Yeah
I think that's mainly because there are only rare cases of people thinking a player will be injured or have a poor year, while there are numerous cases of people projecting career years.
I agree
by BobbySouthSide on Feb 13, 2008 4:31 PM CST up reply actions
Anywhere from 2 to 6
That a pretty high community average
I'd obvs be very happy with that sort of line from Swish
High average prediction
Quite possible
Batting averages: .270 as an A, .311 as an Oriole.
Swisher could be helped immensely -- he had a 32 point gap in BABIP between home and away in 2007, and a 60 point gap in 2006.
It's pretty easy to get too excited about him, given that all his peripherals and transition factors are going in the right direction. As mentioned in my preview, I'll just be happy if he maintains his current level of performance, and doesn't fall flat on his face like Brad Wilkerson.
Hm, I was the low on AB and H
Good point
Just out of curiosity, cheat...
Then again, looking at Swisher's projections, we were all reasonably close anyway.
Yeah
I think if I was looking for a model that would more accurately predict future performance, I would make some changes. But right now, it's just about collecting the most (informed) opinions I can and spitting out a straight average simply.
I think the real value of this is for players like Floyd and Dank who have poor projections in other systems, or a guy like pre 2006 Joe Crede -- I know we did one for him, and I'm pretty sure we killed the other projection systems because (as a group) we were more confident that his swing change would carry over into the new season.
The best projection system would be one that incorporates ZiPS, PECOTA, et al, and apply an informed human factor to them. In other words, take PECOTA and ZiPS then average them along side our own projections.
You're free to take the above spreadsheet and do what you please with it.
I dropped the ball on Crede
looking through the results of this thread, we nailed Crede's breakout season.
Results of our 2006 Crede projection forthcoming
I'd say 2006 Crede is our success story
Crede's 2006 ZiPS -- .256/.311/.437, 21HR, 72RBI
Crede's actual 2006 -- .283/.323/.506 30HR, 94RBI
Any Indiana alumns/rooters here?
Nice win for Bucky, though. You guys remain as Marquette's best 'W', so keep making that win look better and better!
Miles Brand
Long live Chief Illiniwek!
Hey, when do the Boilerfakers
by winningugly on Feb 14, 2008 10:03 AM CST up reply actions
When
Deacon = Buzz Kill
We'll take the #1 spot - I don't care if it's for high school. When you are Purdue (and we are) you take it when you can get it.
We spanked Louisville this year, btw.
by winningugly on Feb 14, 2008 10:38 AM CST up reply actions
hahaha my bad
but like i said, they deserve credit because you can only play the teams on your schedule. Painter has done a hell of a job recruiting. I love big ten basketball and big ten football, so i always route for them in the tourny unless its indiana. Kelvin Sampson is a joke, and I'm glad hes getting what he deserves.
route = root
macdougal has 1 more option
That loophole
In '05 he was purchased in august to replace pods, who came off the DL two days before rosters expanded. Anderson was sent to the minors for the minimum 10 days required, and called back up in September. I had previously thought that decision cost Anderson an option.
He didn't use one on '06, and his option to AAA in '05 apparently didn't count. So Anderson has 2 options remaining, apparently.
When Ozuna inevitably hurts himself
by Shoeless In SC on Feb 13, 2008 11:52 PM CST up reply actions
It's option-year
He'll use one when he gets sent to AAA out of camp, which gives him the ability to pass between the majors and minors with ease for the entire year.
Then he can do the same next year.
The only way to burn an option is to 1. be on the 40-man roster, and 2) be sent (optioned) to the minors. Once you're optioned you can move up and down without using additional options.
So Anderson has the same option status as Ryan Sweeney, whose contract was purchased for his september callup in '06. He then burned an option by being sent to Charlotte last March. So he has 2 remaining, the same as Anderson.
Technically, (I believe) Joe Crede has an option remaining, but by virtue of 5 consecutive years on the major league roster (DL time, even if spent in AAA is considered ML time) he has the right to refuse assignment to the minors. I believe, I thought it was 3 years at this time last year when Neal Cotts was in a similar position (3+ years in the majors), but he used his first option in April with the Cubs.
oh. ok.
damn. there's so many rules and loopholes!
by Shoeless In SC on Feb 14, 2008 9:26 AM CST up reply actions
Bill James'
he seems very kind to most sox hitters, hopefully hes right.
i think
Do any baseball fans really...
I'm not being snarky - just honestly curious here. What percentage of baseball fans these days still think entirely in terms of W-L for pitchers, and BA/HR/RBI for batters?
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Feb 14, 2008 10:42 AM CST up reply actions
These days...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Feb 14, 2008 10:55 AM CST up reply actions
how do you know?
All stats aside,
have you explained the importance
yeah...
by Shoeless In SC on Feb 14, 2008 9:27 AM CST up reply actions
Getting on base or to 1st base?????
Me as the father of 2 girls, I have explained to them the importance of having the batters miss or strike out all together.
If I see any doubles or triples around me Im going straight bad boys on them! (Will Smith & Martin Lawrence style!)
i'm sure
hahahahah
They did, indeed, like
Hrm...
That puts his OPS around .945. Damn solid year.
you don' t think the tigers would want this guy?
Hey, it IS Cleveland
Or not.
by winningugly on Feb 14, 2008 11:20 AM CST up reply actions
I think...
Pitchers are risky, and difficult to project. If Sabathia really is looking for a Santana-type deal, it probably makes more sense for Cleveland to work on keeping guys like Hafner, Martinez, and Sizemore than Sabathia.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Feb 14, 2008 11:23 AM CST up reply actions
i think
some would say
outside of carmona, i'm not sure who you mean, though. byrd and westbrook were also largely around their career stats. unless you mean cliff lee will also be regressing - but that wouldn't be good news for the sox.
More so
betancourt
Yeah,
Has the meth kicked in?
;)
i know you don't believe that
Should I sell Cleveland-based stocks?
Or is the recession over?
Add that to the Google poll, Cheat.
someone
we're fucked
AL Central
Indians 92-70
Tigers 91-71
White Sox 76-86
Twins 76-86
Royals 70-92
http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/2008/02/al-projected-standings.html
and who likes the (sans devil) rays?
AL East
Red Sox 92-70
Yankees 92-70
Rays 89-73
Blue Jays 83-79
Orioles 65-97
AL West
Angels 91-71
Mariners 83-79
Athletics 75-87
Rangers 72-90
Wow.
The real
Right...
The Rays have about as many question marks as anyone, but they'll be fun to watch this year.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Feb 14, 2008 11:43 AM CST up reply actions
Keep dreaming Larry
Oh I forgot the Sox will soon envy
89?
I would sell Rays 89 til my fucking face caved in.
Yeah, the Rays look ready to
Today I asked a guy
Seems like a layup. Last year was an aberration, wasn't it?
SINCE I asked him "out of the blue."
It really depends...
They also need at least two of the Danks/Floyd/Broadway/whoever to step up and fill out the rest of the rotation. The Sox offense will be improved, but not good enough to carry a bad rotation slot.
They also need to stay healthy. The organization is really thin - if someone in the starting lineup goes down for any length of time, then forget it.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Feb 14, 2008 11:52 AM CST up reply actions
Good point...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Feb 14, 2008 12:02 PM CST up reply actions
Got the Cubs to the playoffs.
I'm excited about the upcoming season
But I agree with Jerry. The starting pitching is a HUGE question mark. MB will hopefully be MB, but will Vazquez be able to get past the 6th inning, will Father Time have a bounce back year, and will the 2 youngsters have breakout years?
It's a good thing KW worked on making the bullpen somewhat better...I fear it will be needed more often than not.
Jerry.
I'm not sure...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Feb 14, 2008 12:31 PM CST up reply actions
R-H-E-T-O-R-I-C-A-L Q-U-E-S-T-I-O-N.
Alrighty then.
So rather than run this team down, from now on I'm going to try and figure out what needs to happen for this team to be good.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Feb 14, 2008 12:36 PM CST up reply actions
I think you're right
re
Chicago White Sox (2007: 72-90): 73-89 Kansas City Royals (2007: 69-93): 75-87 Minnesota Twins (2007: 79-83): 80-82 Detroit Tigers (2007: 88-74): 90-72 Cleveland Indians (2007: 96-66): 94-68
Awesome.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Feb 14, 2008 12:46 PM CST up reply actions
Huckabee is kind of creepy
Satan also plays bass.
by ReservoirDog on Feb 14, 2008 1:18 PM CST up reply actions
No the dude plays the guitar
by onlysoxfaninboston on Feb 14, 2008 1:26 PM CST up reply actions
I think we need a Canadian comedy diary
50 of the World's Neatest Hits from Five of the World's Neatest Guys!
K-Tel's "5 Neat Guys Neatest Hits" includes:
"My Mom Framed My High School Diploma"
"Patsy Has The Largest Breasts In Town"
"Who Made the Egg Salad Sandwiches?"
"Who Put The Pennies In My Loafers?"
"Let's Have A Party In My Rec Room"
"Just Step Around That Clip-On Tie"
"I Can't Get A Date For New Years"
"I'm The Goof In The Classroom"
"Should I Kiss Her Goodnight?"
"Slow Dance, Anyone?"
"My Dad's Car"
"She Does It"
and many, many more...
It takes a Satanic reference to get R-Dog
Who plays lead guitar in Satan's band? Brian Jones? I believe Karen Carpenter is on drums.
lol. great.
by Shoeless In SC on Feb 15, 2008 11:18 AM CST up reply actions
Thanks Keith Law!
SportsNation Keith Law: (1:49 PM ET ) The White Sox will be bad, but in a division with two similarly bad teams, they might fake their way to 75 wins or so.
hahahah
ouch!
Again!
SportsNation Keith Law: (1:56 PM ET ) The problem is that they don't get it. They're not a good team. They have no shot to contend with Detroit or Cleveland. Trying to improve the '08 club was the wrong strategy. I didn't mind the Swisher acquisition, but why are they giving up prospects?
Kenny, is that you?
by BobbySouthSide on Feb 14, 2008 1:44 PM CST up reply actions
There's no reason to start another debate
Law's evaluation of the trade seems to be a bit near-sighted. He thinks that the prospects we gave up would be more valuable when the Sox are ready to contend again, but I think Swisher is just as valuable now and 3,4,5 years down the road.
Keith Law Doesn't get it
"Trade away all valuable minor leaguers in order to finish hopefully finish 3rd in the division in hopes of staying competitive to keep my GM job for at least another year until I come up with alternate plan. If all fails blame it on the ineptitude of Duane Shaefer and our miserable scouting department."
by BobbySouthSide on Feb 14, 2008 1:43 PM CST up reply actions
No ticket talk?
Any tips you'd care to give me? Don't worry, I won't be in the competition for the good seats anyway.
by defensive indifference on Feb 14, 2008 2:16 PM CST reply actions
i've been
Definitely dress warm
Jeez...
by defensive indifference on Feb 14, 2008 2:22 PM CST up reply actions
Coldest sporting event I've ever been to
Pete.
No gloves even, it sucked
Coldest I've ever been
One day the weather report was for mid to high 70's and clear. Some system happened and it never got above 48. Cloudy. Very windy. There I am in my shorts, golfshirt and wind breaker. I froze my ass off. No sweaters in the clubhouse. Not smart enough to quit. An absolute debacle.
I will NEVER be cold on the golf course again. I now carry lots of extras.
Yeah, that's the problem.
by defensive indifference on Feb 14, 2008 3:01 PM CST up reply actions
You can always take it off.
Yes, Elizabeth, it gets cold in FL
;)
Can't wait for the Sox to come to FL this year. I also mayu try and score some tix mid-August, when I'm back home for our firm's national conference in McCormick Place. I'll be looking you guys up.
it was snowing and below freezing last year
Of course!
by defensive indifference on Feb 14, 2008 2:21 PM CST up reply actions
I bought a few opening day
Oh...
by defensive indifference on Feb 14, 2008 2:35 PM CST up reply actions
If you only need one, I can help.
I'm not on a "need" basis right now.
But if you're stuck with an extra when it gets closer to the date...can't imagine that happening though!
by defensive indifference on Feb 14, 2008 2:40 PM CST up reply actions
Forget Opening Day
I was able to get Club Level seats (with nice warm indoor access) on stubhub.com for only $23 each, which is under face value. Even with "fees" and shipping, the total was $64.
Whoa.
by defensive indifference on Feb 14, 2008 2:57 PM CST up reply actions
The excitement has returned
No, no...
by defensive indifference on Feb 14, 2008 3:08 PM CST up reply actions
where do you get them?
last year
AJ. AJ. AJ. AJ.
Why is it the Latin guys on our team
perception meet reality
I was thinking of our Biggio/Hunt,
how soon i forget terstado
WU meant
They were pretty much gone for lower level Monday
Last years opening day was great - it was Contreras that sucked...

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