John Danks likes strangers

by The Cheat on Feb 19, 2008 2:37 PM CST in News Comment 12 comments

In response to Jim putting some numbers to Jon Danks struggles last season, I went back and revisited something I had intended to publish but never got around to because of crashing browsers and generally laziness.

In addition to getting hit much harder as the game wore on, John Danks got the snot kicked out of him the second and third time he had to face a team within the season. Have a look at this troubling trend.

With the exception of his walk rate, every peripheral trended in the wrong direction as teams got to know him.

Danks obviously faced more teams that he had already seen as the season grew older, so you can argue correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation. But coupled with the in-game trends of the same nature, these stats don't paint a pretty picture for the future.

***** In other news, (wizard)

I hadn't noticed Carl's Palehose 8 site (and was using the Smells Like Mascot site). Thanks to Jim for the pointer. Here's the Cover.
Buehrle won't let the money gets to his head.
THT: Eric Seidman on Cy Young (BBTF discussion).
THT: Part 2 of Josh Kalk's Pitcher similarity scores.

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I wonder what this would be like for

other pitchers.

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Feb 19, 2008 3:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Massett as a starter

I remember Massett doing well taking over for COntreras, Buerhle, and starting against the Cubs last year and doing well. Can Massett's true talent be as a starter rather than the pen? Anybody have any numbers or anything? I am not the stat expert here.

"I have no idea of what the rotation might be, ... Ask me tomorrow."

by rangerjae on Feb 20, 2008 7:12 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Great call on LFC, Larry

"What a hit, son -- what a hit!"

by CWSKeith on Feb 19, 2008 3:49 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

ye of little faith

doesn't take much to call it. they're an entirely different team with torres and gerrard (and, arguably, you can throw in mascherano on that). more than any of the other top english clubs, their fortunes are tied up in two players. and it's european football. their style is simply much better suited to play an italian team.

by larry on Feb 19, 2008 3:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

break out by # of pa's for individual hitters....

if you break this out by 6 or more pa's or 5 or less pa's, here's what you get (stats from baseball reference)



            pa    ab    h    2b   3b    hr   rbi    bb    so     ba  k/100 bb/100 hr/100       

6 or more  283   253   76    17    1    15    41    25    47   .300  16.61   8.83   5.30       

5 or less  339   300   84    21    0    13    44    29    62   .280  18.29   8.55   3.83

Dang, if you add those up it would be a nice centerfielder for us!

But I suspect we'd find similar splits for just about every MLB pitcher. Except, the "base" would be better than Danks' .280 BAA.

by ruffster on Feb 19, 2008 4:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

same numbers for buehrle:



            pa    ab    h    2b   3b    hr   rbi    bb    so     ba  k/100 bb/100 hr/100

6 or more  521   478  137    31    2    16    50    32    72  0.287  13.82   6.14   3.07

5 or less  314   295   71    13    0     6    24    13    43  0.241  13.69   4.14   1.91

one qualifier on this-- better opponents tend to play more, so that can skew the data a bit.

by ruffster on Feb 19, 2008 4:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Not to nitpick but...

His BB/9 was worse the 2nd + time around, making his peripherals worse across the board.

by parkermo on Feb 19, 2008 6:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

.04 BB/9

works out to about 1 extra walk every 225 innings pitched. I don't think that you'd say that Mark Buehrle's walk rate went up if he walked 1 more batter over the course of the entire season. It's statistically insignificant.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Feb 19, 2008 6:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

yay for my state

thats all.

MrROFL.com

by shaftr on Feb 19, 2008 9:07 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I love WI!

by The Wizard on Feb 19, 2008 9:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

danks and his new toy

Pitcher John Danks pitched like, well, a rookie the second half of last season, but is poised to have a breakout year. Why? The southpaw has been working on a cutter similar to Buehrle's since late last year, and now seems to have it mastered. Case in point: On Wednesday, facing live hitters, Danks squared off with spring roommate Josh Fields. "He keeps telling me about this cutter,'' Fields said, before the showdown. After the seven-pitch at-bat, Fields seemed impressed. "Wow, I guess he wasn't kidding,'' Fields added. "It was nastier than advertised.''

this coming from a lefty masher (even if it is a teammate).

by larry on Feb 20, 2008 5:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs