One game is not enough

by The Wizard on Feb 26, 2008 2:01 PM CST in News Comment 94 comments

From Mark Gonzales' Retro uniforms post:

The White Sox will play four games with alternate uniforms in 2008, said Brooks Boyer, the Sox's vice president and chief marketing officer.

The Sox will wear their 1983 uniforms (commemorating the 25th anniversary of their American League West title); camouflage jerseys and green outfits for their Halfway to St. Patrick's Day promotion. They will wear their camouflage jerseys on July 4 to honor U.S. troops while dates will be announced later for the other two promotions.

The Sox also will wear Negro League jerseys for a game in Detroit during a series July 25-27.

I like the baggy Negro Leagues uniforms. They look so cool. I'd like to see the Sox wear them more than once a year. ***** In other news,

Jim previews Pablo. And Ozzie likes what he sees in Profundo, Jeff Cox, and Jerry Owens. BTW, Jay says it's up to Jose.
Baseball America publishes 2008's Top 100 prospects list. Notice anything?
SI's John Heyman calls FJM's Junior and other stat guys VORPies. FJM's Junior responds. And here's the BBTF thread.
THT: John Walsh: Searching for the game’s best pitch.
StatSpeak: Pizza Cutter: Do hitters get more jumpy during a slump?.

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kenny loves fireballers, current and not current

[Scot Gregor]:

Anderson in camp: The White Sox on Monday agreed to a minor-league contract with relief pitcher Matt Anderson.

Armed with a 100-mph fastball, Anderson was selected by Detroit with the No. 1 overall pick in the 1997 draft. The right-hander pitched for the Tigers from 1998-2003, saving 22 games in 2001.

Anderson pitched for the Colorado Rockies in 2005, his last season in the major leagues.

In 2002, Anderson participated in a charity octopus-throwing contest at a Detroit Red Wings game. He tore a muscle under his armpit during the event and never seemed to fully recover.

by The Wizard on Feb 26, 2008 2:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

You can't make that stuff up! (last sentence)

Has he been playing XBox with Billy Koch the last two years?

"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."

by BobbySouthSide on Feb 26, 2008 2:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

man what is it with tiger fireballing relievers...

and stupid injuries?

by ruffster on Feb 26, 2008 7:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

2 issues:

Glad "alternate" unis doesn't mean the same as here in Mouseland, or they'd be wearing rainbows.
How long do you think KW pursued M. Anderson before he "got his man"?

Jeff Cox: I'm going to call you "FN".

by winningugly on Feb 26, 2008 2:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

No wonder Kenny was jiggy

at the Intrasquad game. He was all nervous about getting "his man" yesterday.

"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."

by BobbySouthSide on Feb 26, 2008 2:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

can we package profundo and crede now?

Veteran shortstop Omar Vizquel has torn the medial meniscus cartilage in his right knee and is expected to miss four or five weeks.

by The Wizard on Feb 26, 2008 3:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

the bay area

certainly is becoming quite the home for sox players. the As have the young ones and the giants get the old ones. what are two more.

by larry on Feb 26, 2008 3:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

neifi!

[AP]:

Neifi Perez agreed Tuesday to return to the Colorado Rockies on a minor league contract, a goodwill gesture for one of the more popular players in club history.

...

Notes: The Rockies' starting lineup for their exhibition opener, which was posted in the clubhouse Tuesday, features a flip-flop of No. 3 hitter Matt Holliday and cleanup hitter Todd Helton. Also, 2B candidate Marcus Giles will serve as the DH against the White Sox with rookie Jayson Nix getting the nod at second.

by The Wizard on Feb 26, 2008 3:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Still juicing?

What exactly do you bring to any discussion other than endless stupid comments with some nasty little dig thrown in?

by winningugly on Feb 26, 2008 3:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

ha!!!

i had to go back and re-trace where your sig came from, hysterical!

12/12/07- We'll miss you Andy Gonzalez

by The Deacon on Feb 26, 2008 3:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Keep the goodwill going

send back Profundo!

"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."

by BobbySouthSide on Feb 26, 2008 3:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

jayson nix related to lance nix?

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Feb 26, 2008 3:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

laynce

12/12/07- We'll miss you Andy Gonzalez

by The Deacon on Feb 26, 2008 3:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

ooops!

didnt mean to hit post, but im gonna guess so just because of the stupid spellings on both names

12/12/07- We'll miss you Andy Gonzalez

by The Deacon on Feb 26, 2008 3:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah. typo.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Feb 26, 2008 3:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

didnt mean

to call you out on the typo, just meant to point out the name spellings, which i personally find stupid (sorry to all the laynces and jaysons that read the site!)

12/12/07- We'll miss you Andy Gonzalez

by The Deacon on Feb 26, 2008 3:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, i was calling myself out.

it was suspicious that laynce and jayson are both spelled similar, but it is a crazy world.

Who throws a "y" into their sons' names?

My name might be... Caymeron... or... Cameryon... Cameyron. heh.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Feb 26, 2008 3:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Pathetic...

Dusty is jealous somewhere.

by SSH2005 on Feb 26, 2008 3:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

throwing some leather. or, intrasquad recap

Third baseman Joe Crede looked sharp defensively in his first game since undergoing season-ending back surgery last June.

Crede charged quickly and threw to first to retire Donny Lucy in his toughest defensive play during a five-inning intrasquad game.

"If you go out there second-guessing yourself, that's when you get hurt," Crede said.

At the plate, Crede went 0-for-2. He took a called third strike on a sharp breaking curve from Javier Vazquez.

But Crede isolated himself from the speculation that he will likely be traded by the end of spring training.

"I'm going in assuming I'm going to be here in Chicago and whatever happens after that, happens," Crede said.

http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports_hardball/2008/02/credes-comeback.html

by larry on Feb 26, 2008 3:29 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Ah....

So injuries are caused by confidence. Now I see! Get the sports psychologists!

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Feb 26, 2008 3:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

more recap. or, haeger sucks and masset doesn't

Paul Konerko cranked a grand slam off Charlie Haeger to give his team a 5-3 victory over Jim Thome's team in Tuesday's five-inning intrasquad game.

Konerko's slam came one-half inning after NIck Swisher ripped a two-run home run off left-hander Carlos Vazquez with two out in the top of the inning. Non-roster invitee Brad Eldred led off the inning with a triple. Eldred also hit a double and scored on Cole Armstrong's sacrifice fly off Mike MacDougal in the third.

Javier Vazquez pitched two perfect innings and struck out three in front of two major league scouts. Konerko and Jermaine Dye hit consecutive doubles in the fourth.

Nick Masset pitched two scoreless innings.

http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports_hardball/2008/02/intrasquad-hi-1.html

by larry on Feb 26, 2008 3:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd like to lead the campaign

to investigate this Brad Eldred fellow. Perhaps we could teach him to bunt in order to diversify his skillset. Then, he might make the team.

XBH just won't get him off the proverbial island.

What exactly do you bring to any discussion other than endless stupid comments with some nasty little dig thrown in?

by winningugly on Feb 26, 2008 3:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

He is probably just having the typical...

hot as hell ST. Eldred is a low OBP, strikeout machine. He might make a decent platoon DH to only face lefties instead of Thome but I would rather see Swisher or Quentin get those AB's. Eldred is basically this year's Eduardo Perez, but he's a lot younger.

by SSH2005 on Feb 26, 2008 4:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Carlos Vasquez...

sounds familiar, wasn't he part of the Thome trade? Or the Garcia trade? I forget which...

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Feb 26, 2008 3:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Or was it the Cubs - Cotts trade?

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Feb 26, 2008 3:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

cubs/cotts

I believe.

MrROFL.com

by shaftr on Feb 26, 2008 3:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

javy

[Scott Merkin]:

The White Sox season opener still sits a little more than a month way, but Javier Vazquez looked ready to face the Indians during his two perfect innings on Tuesday. The right-hander fanned three straight, in Jim Thome, Crede and Carlos Quentin, knocking down Crede with a bending curve on the outer half.

by The Wizard on Feb 26, 2008 7:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

tomorrow's lineup

obviously gives a hint at how ozzie sees things were opening day today:

Here's the White Sox's lineup for their exhibition opener Wednesday against Colorado at Tucson Electric Park:

Jerry Owens cf

Orlando Cabrera ss

Jim Thome dh

Paul Konerko 1b

Jermaine Dye rf

A.J. Pierzynski c

Josh Fields 3b

Juan Uribe 2b

Brian Anderson lf

John Danks p

Owens said his right groin felt fine after tweaking it in Monday's game. Owens rode a stationary bicycle at full speed Tuesday without any discomfort.

http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports_hardball/2008/02/exhibition-open.html

by larry on Feb 26, 2008 3:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

no swish?

12/12/07- We'll miss you Andy Gonzalez

by The Deacon on Feb 26, 2008 3:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

injured obviously

sheesh, it's an exhibition game. dollars to donuts they want him to come in for konerko at 1B. or showcase BA. or something.

by larry on Feb 26, 2008 3:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

nope

JO has taken over as the teams best OF'er and Anderson has become Ozzie's new favorite. swisher and quentin are now nothing more than late inning replacements for dye and Konerko.

12/12/07- We'll miss you Andy Gonzalez

by The Deacon on Feb 26, 2008 3:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

(Grins)

What exactly do you bring to any discussion other than endless stupid comments with some nasty little dig thrown in?

by winningugly on Feb 26, 2008 3:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

News flash:

BA supplants Swisher!

What exactly do you bring to any discussion other than endless stupid comments with some nasty little dig thrown in?

by winningugly on Feb 26, 2008 3:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

yup

it's all over for swisher!!!!! ozzie hates him and his fake swagger!!!!! it wouldn't surprise me if he's traded!!!!!! tea leaves never lie!!!! he should have run out that fly ball yesterday!!!! now he's fucked!!!!!!

by larry on Feb 26, 2008 3:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Let the slobberfest begin!

Wiz, you can lead us off. Bask in it whilst ye can, bro.

What exactly do you bring to any discussion other than endless stupid comments with some nasty little dig thrown in?

by winningugly on Feb 26, 2008 3:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hah.

I'd like to see "Macdougal strung up by his innards for damaging trade goods!!!"

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Feb 26, 2008 3:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What if....

Anderson LIGHTS IT UP in ST, OZzie finally gives him a chance and he wins the CF job.

Swish starts in LF.

Anderson and Swisher in the same OF? Talk about some groovy fan favorites! (At least with the ladies)

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Feb 26, 2008 3:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

honeys, not ladies

Next time, Bhoov, do some research.

by Chiburb on Feb 26, 2008 6:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yahoo!

My 08 Baseball Prospectus just arrived. Now the comprehensive dogging of the Pale Hose can begin.

I also ordered Fantasyland by Sam Walker. I heard very good things about it. Anyone read it?

"There is not a liberal America and a conservative America. There is the United States of America."

by Tdogg on Feb 26, 2008 3:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

yeah

i hear it's about sox fans who think the team will contend this year and, coincidentally, also think the tigers offense will score more runs than the indians. should be perfect for you. a real self-exploration type book. i'd read it but i think i've pretty much gotten the gist of it from some posters on this board.

by larry on Feb 26, 2008 3:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

They is also a section

For self deluded Rays optimist.

"There is not a liberal America and a conservative America. There is the United States of America."

by Tdogg on Feb 26, 2008 4:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Where did you order from?

I ordered mine from Amazon and they said March 3-5th before it'd arrive. I cancelled it and am going right now to Books a-Million to get it.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Feb 26, 2008 3:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

that message was wrong

see the post on BP's site.

by larry on Feb 26, 2008 3:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

amazon

"There is not a liberal America and a conservative America. There is the United States of America."

by Tdogg on Feb 26, 2008 4:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Fantasyland is OK

The real interactions with his fantasy players are worth it, but reading about his league is like listening to anybody else talk about their leagues at times.

Sox Machine

by Sox Machine on Feb 26, 2008 3:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Really? Ugh.

Well its a used copy not too much.

"There is not a liberal America and a conservative America. There is the United States of America."

by Tdogg on Feb 26, 2008 4:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Crede's comeback...

Mark Gonzales wrote:

TUCSON, Ariz. - Third baseman Joe Crede looked sharp defensively in his first game since undergoing season-ending back surgery last June.

Crede charged quickly and threw to first to retire Donny Lucy in his toughest defensive play during a five-inning intrasquad game.

"If you go out there second-guessing yourself, that's when you get hurt," Crede said.

At the plate, Crede went 0-for-2. He struck out on a sharp breaking curve from Javier Vazquez.

But Crede isolated himself from the speculation that he will likely be traded by the end of spring training.

"I'm going in assuming I'm going to be here in Chicago and whatever happens after that, happens," Crede said.

by SSH2005 on Feb 26, 2008 4:25 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

larry beat you by an hour, bro

See above.

What exactly do you bring to any discussion other than endless stupid comments with some nasty little dig thrown in?

by winningugly on Feb 26, 2008 4:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Dusty strikes again!!!!

What you do is run the pitcher's count up, that helps," Baker said. "You put him in the stretch, that helps. But your job in the middle is to either score them or drive them in. The name of the game is scoring runs. Sometimes, you get so caught up in on-base percentage that you're clogging up the bases

by chrome on Feb 26, 2008 4:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Someone posted this yesterday

I am still in utter amazement that a manager that had Barry Bonds would continue to say stupid shit like this.

"There is not a liberal America and a conservative America. There is the United States of America."

by Tdogg on Feb 26, 2008 4:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

personally

i think he says it just to get a rise out of the "stat guys." sort of in the same vein as cowley and his jon garland and california references.

by larry on Feb 26, 2008 5:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

hah!

that's like saying having too much cash just clogs up your wallet.

by ruffster on Feb 26, 2008 5:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What if...

Everyone assumes Crede is gone, but what if they don't trade him? For one thing, the defense gets a whole lot better. For another, this season is the last hurrah and he does a lot more for 2008 than an A ball pitcher:

Owens CF
OCab 2B
Thome DH
Konerko 1B
Dye RF
Swisher LF
AJ C
Crede 3B
Uribe 2B

Quentin OF
Fields 3B/DH
Ozuna
Hall C

Keeping Fields around lets him platoon at DH with Thome vs. LHP, and he can keep Crede rested at 3B. You can probably get him 400 PAs that way and keep him away from tough RHPs.

Richar (hellooooooo?) seems to have kissed his career goodbye, so there's no one's blocking him. The more I think about it, the more I think Crede stays.

"Swisher's versatility allows us to give Owens a chance to come back and show he's ready to be that sparkplug like Podsednik was a couple of years ago." - KW

by ChicagoPete on Feb 26, 2008 5:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

400 PAs is a mighty high estimate for that role

and fields should not be shielded from righties at this stage of his development. if the sox do this, it's awful.

by larry on Feb 26, 2008 5:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

3 starts a week = 400 PAs

You don't have to shield him from every RHP, just the one's with +fastballs. Crede should definitely be playing 3B when MB and Danks are pitching. The Sox are serious about contending this year, I'm just trying to think of ways they can maximize every last drop of talent they have on their roster in 2008. The future is NOW, cause next year will be a nightmare.

"Swisher's versatility allows us to give Owens a chance to come back and show he's ready to be that sparkplug like Podsednik was a couple of years ago." - KW

by ChicagoPete on Feb 26, 2008 5:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Reinsdorf clearly

said that there would not be 2 third basemen going North. Crede is gone as soon as Sabean says he wants him.

What exactly do you bring to any discussion other than endless stupid comments with some nasty little dig thrown in?

by winningugly on Feb 26, 2008 6:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i'm not sure 3 starts a week equals 400

4 plate appearances in 81 games equals 324. you have to expect that he'd get pulled late in games for defense, though one could argue that PH appearances would offset or more than offset that. 400 is a pretty aggressive target.

this is an awful, awful idea. doing something like this would be a reason that next year and future years are nightmares. there is next to nothing the sox can do to compete next year. let's not fuck up one of our few potential building blocks.

by larry on Feb 26, 2008 6:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Larry,

Pete (Owens), Colin (Floyd), you (Danks) and me (Jose and Masset) have multi-handedly taken this year's Sox out of the shitter and made them contenders.

Now we're already fucked next year? Oh my God!

Get to work on it, Pete.

"All this has done is put the Tigers in a better position to contend with us."

by ballyb on Feb 26, 2008 6:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

right on my brother

If I move these tea leaves around some more I can see 98 wins easy.

"Swisher's versatility allows us to give Owens a chance to come back and show he's ready to be that sparkplug like Podsednik was a couple of years ago." - KW

by ChicagoPete on Feb 26, 2008 6:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Wouldn't be the first awful idea

the CWS had this winter. 4yrs guaranteed for Linebrink, contract extension for OCab, gutting the minors to compete this season...

I don't think player development is a concern this season, anymore than it was last year when Erstad was handed the CF job.

"Swisher's versatility allows us to give Owens a chance to come back and show he's ready to be that sparkplug like Podsednik was a couple of years ago." - KW

by ChicagoPete on Feb 26, 2008 6:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

oh. trotting out the specious BA argument

right. because there's no difference between anderson and fields. i wonder if i'm the only one on here who automatically discounts any argument that uses brian "my OPS+ was 65" anderson to "support" it.

by larry on Feb 26, 2008 7:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The BA card

has buttressed many a case, I'm not gonna be shy about using it.

"Swisher's versatility allows us to give Owens a chance to come back and show he's ready to be that sparkplug like Podsednik was a couple of years ago." - KW

by ChicagoPete on Feb 26, 2008 8:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think on a team this old, there

are 500 PAs between the 4 corners and DH to be had for Fields even with Crede on this team.

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Feb 26, 2008 8:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

now we're replacing konerko and dye?

shoot. i'm beginning to get confused how this helps the team when the sox are continually sitting their best hitters instead of putting them in the lineup together.

by larry on Feb 26, 2008 8:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

"this old" probably doesn't indicate

sitting, does it?

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Feb 26, 2008 10:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

trying to test my hypothesis...

okay, so first it looks like there are about 200 PAs to be had against lefties for the DH, which i found by averaging ABs against LHP over the last 3 years and divided by 9.

on top of that, PECOTA has the following attrition rates:

Konerko: 9% on 597 PAs (weighted mean)
Crede: 26% on 339
Dye: 19% on 490
Swisher: 8% on 633 (just for comparison's sake)
Quentin: 27% on 365
Owens: 25% on 424

Oh, assumptions: that Josh takes all the DH abs against LHP and is the first off the bench in case of injury/suckitude.

Okay, so do those weighted mean PAs pre-factor attrition? It looks like it, which makes it a lot easier. I'm thinking there are about 690 PAs per position. We would be able to do the subtraction, only attrition could occur jointly.

Bleh. I'm kinda stumped and tired. Doesn't it look like he'd be able to get 500 though?

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Feb 27, 2008 1:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

smoak hit a couple homers

[BP]:

South Wins Carolina War: It took ten innings for South Carolina to pull out a victory over East Carolina yesterday in the series' defining third game. After bludgeoning ECU starter T.J. Hose in the weekend opener 22-5, South Carolina lost on Saturday. The team struggled on the mound all weekend, allowing a .310/.407/.460 line. Luckily, the offense bailed them out by hitting .331/.463/.636, including nine home runs. Justin Smoak was responsible for two, but one of the weekend's big stories was the emergence of Cape Cod star Reese Havens, SC's shortstop, who got on base 11 times in 18 plate appearances, hitting two home runs. Going forward, the Gamecocks have serious questions to answer about the depth of their pitching staff, but they'll have the benefit of a dangerous lineup, to be sure.

Smoak...

I thought about posting this story last saturday, but I didn't want to depress anyone. I listened to the game on the radio. Smoak can absolutely murder a ball. And he's pretty damn good in the field too.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Feb 28, 2008 12:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

larussa planning to hit his pitchers 8th

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/02/26/larussa.pitchers.ap/index.html

by larry on Feb 26, 2008 7:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

query

is second leadoff also a position?

by larry on Feb 26, 2008 7:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

He did this last year

though not all season.

I believe I saw some data that backed up his reasoning. Basically, there is an upgrade in the number of baserunners on base for the 2-3-4 hitters when there is a real hitter batting ninth, and that upgrade is larger than the drop off in offense that a typically happens in the 6-7-8 spots.

I think the main difference comes from the number of at-bats seen by the 2-3-4 hitters as compared to their 6-7-8 counterparts.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Feb 26, 2008 7:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That TLaR's a genius

Too bad he's in the NL, I'd love to see him playing chess with Ozzie 19 times a year.

"Swisher's versatility allows us to give Owens a chance to come back and show he's ready to be that sparkplug like Podsednik was a couple of years ago." - KW

by ChicagoPete on Feb 26, 2008 8:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

a guy presented this issue at the last SABR

convention (in st. louis, coincidentally). found that the difference was about a run or two. so basically statistically insignificant. now, this is based on team/lineup construction and strategy that may not necessarily be used if one is planning to construct a lineup in this way. however, i'm pretty skeptical. one problem with it is that now you have a pinch hitter, probably twice, batting in front of likely your shittiest hitter. it's an intriguing theory, though, and i hope larussa does it for a season because it would provide some real life insight into it.

by larry on Feb 26, 2008 8:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

.3 run increase from 4.3 runs/game

looks significant to me. Granted, the sample is small (58 games) but at least it's almost 1/3 of a season.

The interesting part (and the part dmost difficult to measure) is the credence the author puts n the "mental lift" given to the #9 hitter with another legit hitter protecting him. I believe I know the answer to this, but do you stat guys/girls buy any of that?

What exactly do you bring to any discussion other than endless stupid comments with some nasty little dig thrown in?

by winningugly on Feb 26, 2008 8:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

'stat guys/girls' are VORPies now

get with the program old man!

by The Wizard on Feb 26, 2008 8:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I saw that -

as long as you don't consider it perjorative I'm good with it.

What exactly do you bring to any discussion other than endless stupid comments with some nasty little dig thrown in?

by winningugly on Feb 26, 2008 9:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

might want to look inside the numbers

and might want to consider that something like rick ankiel being inserted into the #2 spot and replacing a slew of crappy players - which, coincidentally, occurred around the same time as larussa put this experiment into regular use - had more of an effect on their runs scored than flipping the pitcher and the #8.

by larry on Feb 26, 2008 9:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure, but IIRC

Ankiel's numbers suffered late in the year because of his HGH issue. And maybe LaR (hmm?) juggled the lineup becuase that was the most efficient way of playing it.

You may be right - hard to devise a "control" group.

What exactly do you bring to any discussion other than endless stupid comments with some nasty little dig thrown in?

by winningugly on Feb 26, 2008 9:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

late in the year?

he got called up in august. while larussa had dabbled in it a little before august, he went to it regularly at almost the exact same time as ankiel got called up. i'm just pointing out there are a heck of lot more things going on with a .3 increase in runs than flipping two players at the bottom of a lineup. i would think anyone would be able to figure that out. and inserting a guy who OPSed .850+ down the stretch near the top of the lineup may be a slightly more important change. not to mention general randomness.

by larry on Feb 26, 2008 10:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

His stats deteriorated

markedly after the HGH revelation - it'd be interesting to see, as it seems you are postulating, how the roman candle-like rise and descent of his performance within that (short) period affected the overall increased run production. If it were, say, .6 higher because of his hot streak, then settled in at a final .3 higher becase of his slump, then I'd believe you would be correct (i.e. Ankiel was the lion's share of the difference).

That might help "anyone" figure it out. I just don't know how to retrieve those stats. Just speculating. But, frankly, if inserting one hot player (Ankiel) can shake things up that much, why would flipping 2 players not potentially change the run tally? Perhaps the improved performance of the #9 guy who was flipped might account for some of the difference. Then the question is - did the improved performance occur because of the flip, or was it happenstance? Can it be replicated over a longer period consistently?

This is what keeps me up at night.

What exactly do you bring to any discussion other than endless stupid comments with some nasty little dig thrown in?

by winningugly on Feb 27, 2008 5:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

since you need help

.3 runs a game is 49 runs a season. guess what else will increase your run tally by that much? replacing scott podsednik with barry bonds. flipping your two worst hitters in the batting order does not have the same effect. the VORPies have run this before and found a negligible increase of runs. while i doubt their modeling is perfect, i'm having a real hard time figuring out how they could be off by roughly 50 runs.

by larry on Feb 27, 2008 9:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

and i rather doubt

the HGH revelation had much to do with it. rick ankiel is not a 1.100 OPS player. it's called "regression" and "coincidence."

by larry on Feb 27, 2008 9:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Coincidence - doubtful

He went around 0-22 immediately after he had to go on camera and fess up/deny. Remember the pitcher that had the Steve Blass syndrome? This is a good, sensitive kid who was whacked in the press and reacted to it. He was going to regres, sure, but I'd still like to see when/how the run differential fluctuated.

Maybe the difference was all Ankiel, maybe not -that's the stat I'd like to see.

What exactly do you bring to any discussion other than endless stupid comments with some nasty little dig thrown in?

by winningugly on Feb 27, 2008 10:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

sigh

no one is claiming the difference was all ankiel. i'd personally chalk it mostly up to randomness (and eckstein, of course). it's just that it's fairly obvious that, if there is something to point towards as causing the majority of the increase, it's far more likely that it's adding ankiel than flipping two hitters who would already be there. we know what the expected effect of replacing an average or below average bat with an above average bat is. rather easy to quantify.

by larry on Feb 27, 2008 11:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

do you know that the red sox swept us in the 2005

playoffs? link

by The Wizard on Feb 26, 2008 8:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

and ozzie guillen was fired

by Jbasic89 on Feb 26, 2008 8:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

at least he didn't run naked on michigan ave.

by The Wizard on Feb 26, 2008 8:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

How James Freyian

And it comes just days after I was scolded via email by another blogger for "trying to undermine everything I have done" in a "disgusting manner" after I left a comment on his blog (which he quickly deleted, btw) questioning his expertise and pointing out his lack of knowledge in one particular post.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Feb 26, 2008 9:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

undermine some more

do tell what site this was. largely so none of us go there.

by larry on Feb 26, 2008 10:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

WHO?!??

C'mon Cheat, I won't tell.

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Feb 26, 2008 10:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

those nutty royals fans

really have a hatred for the sox, i dont really know why? shouldnt they hate everyone for crapping on them all these years?

12/12/07- We'll miss you Andy Gonzalez

by The Deacon on Feb 26, 2008 10:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Kind of bizarre

Some poor revisionist history or a rather lame joke?

-Jeeves Life in the Cell

by jeeves on Feb 26, 2008 10:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What's with the...

"beloved 'ace'" comment too?

Out-underacheiving the other guy.

by defensive indifference on Feb 27, 2008 10:29 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I just figured something out based upon

the TLaR abbreviation:

LaRussa = larry. Both are lawyers. Both think outside the box and have statistics at their fingertips at all times and minds like steel traps. It was the "LaR" part - "larry" - that cinched it.

Now it all makes sense.

What exactly do you bring to any discussion other than endless stupid comments with some nasty little dig thrown in?

by winningugly on Feb 26, 2008 8:36 PM CST reply actions 0 recs