Spring Training Games #11 and #12: White Sox vs. D-backs & White Sox @ Angels

Nate Silver: That's a great question, and in this case it has a pretty simple answer. On the first version of PECOTA that we do each year, we make a very simple assumption about a team's defense -- namely, that the defense will be the same as it was last year, regressed to the mean last year. The Rays had a very, very bad defense in 2007, involving experiments like Brendan Harris playing shortstop, B.J. Upton playing second base, and Delmon Young playing center field. So, that was flowing through into the ERAs of each of the pitchers.

But in the second version of the PECOTAs, we instead project defense based on the individual defensive projections from our depth chart starting lineups. And we actually expect the Rays to have a slightly above average defense this year, particuarly given the addition of Jason Bartlett. So this turned out to make a huge difference at the margins. And there's a hidden benefit too, which is that it actually increases the innings pitched projections for the starting pitchers, which means fewer innings from the back end of their bullpen.

1.  Sunrise.
   
2.  Turns on computer.
   
3.  Sunset.
   
4.  Turns off computer.

my critique of the rest:

ordonez is due for a major decline from last year. BABIP drop will be huge and other things point to a decline.

carmona: if your league is big on wins, he may be a better choice; i think he'll not be as good as last year and may see a short DL stint. but he'll still be quite good when he's in.

hunter: getting old.

street: closers are volatile, even good ones like street. and he's playing for the As, which will hurt his saves.

salty: there's a danger the rangers could start him in AAA, considering they're not contending this year. not as good as the others.

The biggest risks for the top two are position changes.  The Rangers say they're going to leave salty behind the plate, but his bat is too good and they lack a first baseman.  And Ramirez is a butcher at ss.  I'd expect him to be in the outfield soon.

Ordonez is a huge risk because he had career highs in everything last year and, as shown in the THT article above, he's due for a batting average collapse.  

I wouldn't touch Hunter either, he has lots of his value tied up in Defense, which I've yet to see used in a fantasy league well yet.

And Carmona & Street?  Feh.  Mid to late rounders.  Too much risk.

After that, I'd would go Maggs.  Even with the expected drop in BA, he is still going to have a ton of opportunities to drive in runs in that lineup.  Plus, there is always pitching to be had in later rounds and the OF crop seems a little thin this year.