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PECOTA Vs. The Chicago White Sox -- CSTB

Silver knows it’s been tougher to figure out the White Sox than a presidential election. PECOTA badly missed predicting the 2005 World Champs, forecasting a mere 80 wins. Next, BP shorted the Sox in ‘06 before nailing their performance in ‘07 - a year everthing went horribly wrong. Last season, the Sox again whipped PECOTA’s projections and contributed significantly to the system’s first historical increase in average error predicting team wins. On average, PECOTA now blows its forecasts by an averge of 8.5 wins, ending a steady trend toward increasing accuracy with a rude blemish.

2008 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout

Replacement Level Yankees has an incredible projection roundup running thousands of sims. Be sure to check out part 2 as well. Bad News: Pecota has the most optimistic projections for the Sox.

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