Tag: wins above replacement

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Teams Paid $6.5 - 7.5 MM per WAR in '09 Offseason

230

"The dollar per win mark here was lower at just $5.79 million, however, this doesn't capture the true cost, since players signing mult-year contracts will likely be worse at the end of their contract than during the first year studied here. Even with this bias, the $5.79 million mark is far more than the usual $4.5 million mark. An additional counterintuitive finding is that players signing multi-year contracts tended to perform worse than their single-year contract contemporaries. This multi-year term was not significant, however, so the result isn't generalizable. Still, it was surprising to find the effect going in the opposite direction than what one would expect in 2009. While 2009 could have been just a bad year for free agents - this is further evidence that the $4.5 million per win mark commonly used may be, if not wrong, at least obsolete. Using this 2009 data from two different data sources, again shows the dollars per win value above $6 million. While estimates based on projected WAR may yield a different figure, the reality is that teams are paying much more than that (or at least they did in 2009). Interestingly, 2009 was seen at the time as being a depressed free agent market, where teams could pick up relatively cheap bargains. At $6.5 to $7.5 million per win, there were very few bargains to be had." One note: this hasn't been corrected for any kind of Winner's Curse. Free agents are paid by the team willing to pay the most. The market's actual valuation of the player would be something like an average of all available offer sheets. This is not a measure of what all teams were willing to pay, only what it took to sign those players. That said, I doubt that inflation brings it back in line with the accepted $4.5MM/WAR figure. I think it also makes Kenny's approach more sensible as I'm fairly certain trades are less susceptible to such phenomena.

AL Central WARs: A Conclusive Accounting

222

The AL Central in total, as far as position players go.

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