Some things to read while watching out for giant inflatable bears.

If you're wondering where today's Winter League Update went, there isn't one. Everyone was off yesterday. The Update will be back tomorrow.

There are 74 more days until pitchers and catchers report, but only four more to vote in the BCB Reader Survey. Please take a moment to do so, if you haven't already.

As noted below, the Brewers offered arbitration to CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets and Brian Shouse yesterday, but declined to offer it to Eric Gagne. If Sabathia or Sheets sign with another team, the Brewers get one of thier draft picks (either in the bottom half of the first round or the top of the second), and a pick between the first and second rounds. If Shouse signs with another team, the Brewers just get a pick between the first and second rounds. Gagne is free to sign with anyone, no compensation required.

Also, as noted in the FanShots, the Brewers signed former Braves 1B Scott Thorman to a minor league deal and invited him to spring training. Barring some sort of emergency, he likely won't appear above AAA in 2009.

Are you craving more CC Sabathia links? Rob Neyer wonders if Sabathia's weight and the New York media's tendencies to make fun of overweight athletes might make the Yankees a bad fit for the 290 lb lefty. Meanwhile, Peter Gammons is suggesting the Angels may court him by taking him to Del Taco.

Now, a moment to focus on Jason Kendall's defense. Beyond the Box Score says he saved 4.86 runs this season by blocking pitches, the third most in all of baseball. Kendall's actual block percentage is lower than a handful of other catchers, but Kendall saved more runs based on increased opportunity.

Via Rattler Radio, I noticed that MILB.com has started their Top 50 prospects list, and Jeremy Jeffress is #44. There's a joke here about being high on Jeffress, but I'll pass. Prospects 31-40 are due out today.

This year's Hall of Fame voters will see the smallest ballot ever, with only 23 players eligible for induction. Among ten first time candidates are former Brewers Jesse Orosco, Dan Plesac and Greg Vaughn.

Lots of arbitration news, and some other stuff on the hot stove today:

Angels: Offered arbitration to Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixiera, Darren Oliver and Jon Garland, but not Garret Anderson.
Astros: Signed Mike Hampton to a one year deal.
Blue Jays: Offered arbitration to A.J. Burnett but not Gregg Zaun.
Braves: Declined to offer arbitration to John Smoltz.
Cardinals: Declined to offer arbitration to Russ Springer, Braden Looper and Jason Isringhausen.
Cubs: Declined to offer arbitration to Kerry Wood.
D-Backs: Offered arbitration to Orlando Hudson, Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon, but not to Adam Dunn or Randy Johnson.
Dodgers: Offered arbitration to Manny Ramirez, Derek Lowe and Casey Blake but declined to offer it to Joe Beimel, Greg Maddux, Brad Penny and Jeff Kent.
Giants: Declined to offer arbitration to Rich Aurilia.
Marlins: Declined to offer arbitration to Luis Gonzalez, Paul Lo Duca and Arthur Rhodes. They may also be looking to trade Matt Treanor.
Mets: Offered arbitration to Oliver Perez but not Luis Ayala or Moises Alou. They also signed C Rene Rivera.
Padres: Declined to offer arbitration to Trevor Hoffman.
Phillies: Declined to offer arbitration to Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer. They also expressed interest in Mark Loretta.
Rangers: Offered arbitration to Milton Bradley.
Reds: Offered arbitration to David Weathers and extended an offer to Arthur Rhodes.
Rockies: Offered arbitration to Brian Fuentes.
Royals: Offered arbitration to Mark Grudzielanek.
Tigers: Declined to offer arbitration to Edgar Renteria.
Twins: Offered arbitration to Dennys Reyes.
White Sox: Offered arbitration to Orlando Cabrera, but not to Ken Griffey, Toby Hall or Juan Uribe.
Yankees: Declined to offer arbitration to all eight of their free agents, including Andy Pettitte, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi and Chad Moeller.

If you want to check my work or see all this information nicely color coded, Amazin' Avenue has you covered.

Also, the Hanshin Tigers have reportedly agreed to a deal with Kevin Mench.

On a sad note, Blue Jays owner Ted Rogers has passed away. He was 75.

Fire Brand of the American League recently interviewed Peter Gammons, and of course they asked him what he thinks of blogs. His response is moderately incoherent and rambles off onto a tangent, but I think it's possible he likes blogs...maybe?

Oh, and it took Kirbir and I, working together, an hour and a half to beat this game yesterday. Can you do better? I never would have gotten out of the bathroom without her.

Drink up.

Pitchers and catchers report in (approximately) 75 days. Are you ready?

Two things I need to bug you about, briefly:

• If you haven't yet, please take a few moments to take the BCB Reader Survey. I'm curious to hear what you think about what we're doing.
• Two spots remain in the BCB Whatifsports league. For a brief period of time yesterday we were down to one spot. The sooner we can fill the league, the sooner games will begin and I can stop bugging you about it.

Now, with that out of the way, on to the news. By 11 pm tonight, the Brewers will need to make a decision to offer arbitration (or not) to four players: CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Brian Shouse and Eric Gagne. It's almost a given that the team will offer arbitration to Sabathia, but they might consider not offering it to Sheets and Shouse. As for Gagne, I'm surprised they haven't already announced a decision to decline.

Ken Rosenthal, via MLB Trade Rumors, says the Brewers' decision on Sheets could impact his market value, as a decision to decline paying an ace-caliber starter $12-14 million next season would be a clear indication that they don't think he can stay healthy. Meanwhile, Roy Oswalt wants Sheets to sign with the Astros. The Astros, however, are citing economic uncertainty and slowing down their negotiations with Randy Wolf.

Here's today's Sabathia Smorgasbord:

• Peter Gammons thinks it will take more than $140 million to get Sabathia.
• Rob Neyer says Sabathia doesn't have much in common with most of the other pitchers who have received $100 million deals.
• David Chalk of Bugs and Cranks has Sabathia at 300-to-1 odds to win Sports Illustrated's Sportsman of the Year.

Tim Kurkijian lists the Brewers among his teams with holes to fill, and says they need starting pitching. Also, breaking news: the sun will rise in the east again tomorrow, as scheduled.

Adam McCalvy's mailbag cites the glut of closers on the market and suggests the Brewers could be players for a free agent closer, but also names Carlos Villanueva and Seth McClung as candidates for the job. Between the Green Pillars says the large number of relievers on the market gives the Brewers flexibility as they look to improve their pitching staff.

If you still want to move J.J. Hardy away from shortstop, here's another argument against you: Chone Smith ranks Hardy as the best defensive shortstop in baseball in 2008.

On the hot stove:

Padres: Trevor Hoffman said his odds of returning to San Diego are "not even 99-to-1." Reports say the Padres will likely not offer him arbitration.
Phillies: The team may not offer arbitration to Pat Burrell.
Rangers: Reportedly will offer arbitration to Milton Bradley.
Red Sox: Reportedly have agreed to a three year deal with Japanese pitched Junichi Tazawa.
Royals: Have signed veteran journeyman catcher J.R. House.

I track it everyday, and even I have a hard time remembering who plays on what team in Puerto Rico or the Dominican Republic, so Jon Shields' idea for one unified winter ball league in the US appeals to me. Of course, then no one would get to be an international man of mystery.

Drink up.

In Mexico: Jason Bourgeois went 4-for-14 over the weekend (all singles) and stole two bases. He's hitting .342/.402/.392 for Mochis.

In Venezuela:

• Alcides Escobar went 0-for-2 with a walk Saturday, his first appearance in a week.
• Brendan Katin went 2-for-9 over the weekend with a walk and a double, drove in three runs and struck out five times.
• Luis Pena had a rough outing Sunday, giving up three runs on a hit and a walk without recording an out.
• The newest Brewer, R.J. Swindle, has already made 17 appearances in Venezuela and is posting a 3.32 ERA. Over the weekend, he threw a scoreless inning on Friday and retired the only batter he faced Sunday.

In the Dominican Republic:

• Joe Bateman gave up a run on a hit in one inning Saturday. He has a 3.66 ERA in 19.2 innings (17 appearances) for Este.
• Juan Sandoval gave up a hit to the only batter he faced Friday, then pitched a scoreless inning Sunday.

In Puerto Rico:

• Charlie Fermaint went 2-for-8 over the weekend with two walks and was caught stealing. Overall, he's hitting .333/.412/.400 in his first 30 ABs for Ponce.
• Mike Rivera went 4-for-7 over the weekend with a walk and a run scored.
• Steve Bray pitched two thirds of a scoreless inning Sunday, to bring his ERA down to 1.98 in 13.2 innings.
• Richie Gardner pitched 1.2 scoreless innings Sunday with a walk and a strikeout. His PWL ERA is 7.98, but it's 2.08 as a reliever.
• Efrain Nieves made his debut for Arecibo Sunday, allowing two hits in a scoreless inning of work, striking out one.

Finally, in the comments on Friday's Update TheJay noticed the following:

• Brad Nelson, who hasn't appeared in the Dominican since November 14, is back in the US getting married.
• Chris Narveson left his Mexican team, citing fatigue, and has been replaced on their roster.
• Casey McGehee returned to the US to deal with a family issue.

Some things to read while making excuses for not doing anything today.

We open today with a Sabathia Smorgasbord:

• Ken Davidoff, via MLB Trade Rumors, reports the Yankees might be willing to raise their offer to $150 million over six seasons if another team, like the Angels, offers Sabathia $130 million.
• Rob Neyer says replacing Jon Garland with Sabathia would make the Angels 3-4 wins better next season, which doesn't sound like much but becomes more relevant when you realize the 2008 Angels already won 100 games. And if Jon Garland is as bad as projected in 2009, the difference is even bigger.
• Everyone loves CC. Absolutely everyone. Not only is he friends with LeBron James, Mike Cameron and Nick Swisher, but Buster Olney says his best friend in baseball is David Riske.
• Sabathia's midseason acquisition and the jersey rush that followed are probably a big part of the reason the Brewers sold more named jerseys than any other team in 2008.
• FanGraphs says Sabathia had the single greatest pitching performance in 2008. (Ben Sheets had the second best.)
• Kenny Doyle of Dugout Central says the Braves need CC Sabathia...because he's black. I tend to think he's valuable for reasons that extend beyond his skin color.
• Over 10,000 people have voted, and so far the Yankees hold a slight edge in Ken Rosenthal's poll on CC Sabathia's destination.
• Sabathia was second on The Brew Town Beat's Top Ten List of things to be thankful for.
• Sabathia also made Big League Stew's list of 101 things, along with Ryan Braun's nickname, Bob Uecker, and the food and tailgating at Miller Park.

Of course, there is other movement on the free agent market. These two pieces of news were so huge, for example, that the mainstream media just assumed you knew about them and passed by: Mel Stocker is a Mariner and Callix Crabbe might be too.

Since they haven't signed any Type A or B free agents (yet), the Brewers still project to draft 27th in the 2009 draft. With two Type A free agents (Sabathia and Sheets) still out there, they stand to pick up several extra early picks.

Here's a mishmash of one sentence notes falling under the heading of "bullpen:"

• The Rockies are reportedly targeting Brian Shouse.
• Seth McClung made the final four candidates in FanGraphs' search for 2009's best mop up pitcher.
• Salomon Torres hasn't officially retired yet. He still needs to turn in the paperwork.

Baseball Musings takes a look at how defense affected pitchers in 2008. Sabathia, Ben Sheets and Dave Bush were helped the most by the Brewer defense, while Carlos Villanueva was the only Brewer to be hurt by it.

While I'm on the subject of defense: I know fielding percentages and error counts are not the only or the best way to measure defensive ability, but Vinny Rottino, Brendan Katin and Tony Gwynn were all among the bottom of AAA in terms of fielding percentage and among the leaders in errors. Just saying.

I hope everyone remembered yesterday to be thankful for R.J. Swindle. He's Canadian, so his Thanksgiving is actually the second Monday in October, but Independent Baseball Chatter says he has extra reason to be thankful this season anyway.

If Balking Traditionalism's 2009 pitching projections are accurate, we may not have as much Brewer success to be thankful for at this time next year.

Rowland's Office thinks the Braves are making a mistake pursuing A.J. Burnett if the price is five years, $75 million, comparing Burnett to Pete Harnisch. He thinks the Braves should pursue Ben Sheets instead.

And if free agent pitching is too expensive for you, Baseball Analysts takes a look at some pitchers available in the Rule 5 Draft.

I didn't collect as many hot stove links as I normally do today, but here are a few:

Braves: Mike Hampton is reportedly shopping for a one year deal, but wants a straight salary, not an incentive-based deal. I can't believe I'm saying this, but on a one year deal he might be worthy of consideration.
Mets: The team is likely just posturing, but has publicly stated Brian Fuentes' request for a 3 year, $30-$33 million deal seems "a bit high."
Phillies: Matt Stairs is most likely the only current major leaguer spending the offseason coaching high school hockey in Maine.

So, if you're reading the Mug this morning, it's probably safe to assume you skipped the long lines and insanity of Black Friday shopping. If you did, and you're still looking for gifts, might I suggest a shiny new Wisconsin Timber Rattler hat? I'd wear one.

Finally, I've made a point of keeping my work and this blog separate for most of my tenure here, but today it's for a good cause so I'll break the rule. I've been ring announcing pro wrestling shows for 3XWrestling in Des Moines for the last 2 1/2 years, and tonight we have a show in Des Moines as a toy drive for Toys for Tots. If you're located somewhere near Des Moines and looking for something to do tonight, c'mon out with a new, unopened toy and help support a great cause. Even if you're not near Des Moines, Toys for Tots is a great cause to support, as is Child's Play, which is helping two hospitals in Wisconsin this year.

Drink up.

Since I've been gone for a week, all stats are from 11/21 to today, unless noted otherwise.

In Mexico: New Brewer Jason Bourgeois is hitting 10-for-29 over the last week for Mochis, with ten singles. All told, Bourgeois is hitting .354/.425/.415 in Mexico, with just two extra base hits in 65 ABs.

In Venezuela:

• Alcides Escobar went 0-for-4 with 2 strikeouts last Friday, and hasn't had a plate appearance since.
• Tony Gwynn went 2-for-8 with an RBI last Friday and Saturday.
• Hernan Iribarren has only had two plate appearances in the last week, and went 0-for-1 with a walk and was caught stealing.
• Brendan Katin went 2-for-6 with a walk and scored a run.
• Luis Pena threw two thirds of a scoreless inning Tuesday, his first outing since November 11 and only his fourth in two months of VWL play.

In the Dominican Republic:

• Joe Bateman gave up a run on a hit in an inning of work Saturday, then pitched 1.2 scoreless innings with four strikeouts on Monday.
• Juan Sandoval had a rough outing last Friday, giving up four runs on three hits and a walk in one third of an inning, but rebounded to throw a scoreless inning Saturday and another 1.2 scoreless on Wednesday for his first DWL win.

In Puerto Rico:

• Carlos Corporan went 0-for-7 for Caguas and is 0-for his last 15 overall. He's hitting just .100/.100/.300 in his first 20 PWL ABs.
• Charlie Fermaint went 6-for-18 for Ponce with two doubles, and if you don't count a game where he entered as a pinch runner, he has a seven game hitting streak.
• Martin Maldonado went 0-for-1 in his only plate appearance last Friday.
• Mike Rivera went 4-for-15 with a walk, a double and an RBI for Santurce.
• Steve Bray has given up two runs on four hits and a walk over four outings spanning 3.2 innings of work. All told, he has a 2.08 ERA in 13 innings of work in Puerto Rico.
• Richie Gardner gave up a run on a hit and a walk in 2.2 innings of work over three appearances.

Also worth noting: Casey McGehee hasn't played since November 19, Chris Narveson hasn't pitched since November 17, and Brad Nelson hasn't played since November 14, but I haven't seen any reports on why. All were playing well prior to this gap. If you know something I don't, be sure to leave a note in the comments.

For my review of the hitters, click here.

Alexandre Periard

What we knew: At 21 years old, Periard split 2008 between Brevard County and Huntsville. In Brevard County, he went 9-6 with a 3.51 ERA in 112.2 innings, but he struggled with the Southern League, posting a 5.68 ERA in 38 innings (8 starts). He was a 16th round pick in 2004. Even though he's only 21, 2009 will be Periard's fifth season as a member of the Brewers organization.

What we saw in Arizona: It was a tale of two seasons for Periard. He started off the AFL season with four scoreless outings in relief, and one rough outing that raised his ERA to 2.84 in 6.1 innings. Then, he finished the AFL season as a starter and got repeatedly shelled, picking up the loss in three of his four starts and giving up 19 runs on 27 hits and nine walks in just 11.2 innings. All told, he had a 10.50 ERA in 18 innings.

What to take away from it: As a 21-year-old who had never pitched effectively above high-A ball, it's really not surprising that Periard was overmatched as a starter in a hitter-friendly advanced prospect league, and it's relatively encouraging that he was able to hold his own as a reliever in that environment. Periard will most likely go back to Huntsville to start 2009, and could be a candidate to contribute to the Brewers as soon as late 2010, when he would still only be 23.

David Welch

What we knew: A 25-year-old Australian lefty, Welch had a nice, if unspectacular, season in Huntsville in 2008, going 11-4 with a 3.90 ERA in 147.2 innings (26 starts). He doesn't do anything spectacularly well, but he gets outs. His WHIP (.97 to 1.33) and ERA (2.41 to 3.90) have both gotten significantly higher each of the last two seasons as he climbed from West Virginia to Huntsville.

What we saw in Arizona: Welch appeared exclusively in relief in the AFL, and despite getting off to a bit of a slow start, he allowed just one earned run over his final seven outings (11.2 innings) to bring his ERA down to 4.24. He typically pitched full innings but fared much better against left-handed hitters, holding lefties to a .200 batting average while allowing righties to hit at a .333 clip. His minor league splits show that he actually fared better against righties in 2008.

What to take away from it: We're most likely not talking about a future superstar here, but Welch is left handed and throws strikes (just 51 walks in 147.2 2008 innings, 4 in 17 AFL innings). The possible return of Brian Shouse along with the continued presence of Mitch Stetter, Chris Narveson and Sam Narron (plus yesterday's signing of R.J. Swindle) means Welch probably won't bang on the door of the big leagues anytime soon, but he may get a shot at some point.

Omar Aguilar

What we knew: Aguilar is 23 years old and climbing the ladder in the Brewer organization as a reliever. Aguilar was absolutely dominant at Brevard County this season (0.35 ERA in 25.2 IP), but came back to earth a bit at Huntsville, where he posted a 3.08 ERA in 38 innings. This was Aguilar's second run in winter ball: He pitched in Hawaii after the 2007 season.

What we saw in Arizona: Aguilar only pitched 11.2 innings in 11 appearances in Arizona, but it would be hard to be much more impressive. Aguilar did not allow a single earned run in Arizona until his final appearance, a scoreless streak of 10.1 innings. He struck out 12 and walked just four in his 11.2 innings, and was the only Brewer prospect to appear in the AFL Rising Stars game.

What to take away from it: The Brewers must feel that someone might have wanted Aguilar on their 2009 roster, as they've added him to their 40 man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. True pitching prospects who don't start in the minors are rare, but Aguilar is one: He hasn't started a game since starting for the Brewers' Arizona Rookie League affiliate in 2006. Aguilar gives up a lot of fly balls (.83 groundouts per air out in the AFL, .90 for the 2008 season), but so far what he's got seems to be working. He could feasibly start 2009 in Nashville, but spending the first half in Huntsville probably wouldn't hurt either.

Brae Wright

What we knew: Wright turned 25 in November and was a sixth round pick in 2006. In 2007, he gave up a lot of runs in West Virginia (5.87 ERA in 110.1 IP) but improved after a promotion to Brevard County, where he posted a 2.84 ERA in 38 innings. In 2008, Wright spent the entire season in Huntsville, going 6-10 with a 3.59 ERA in 170.2 innings, striking out 120 and walking 60.

What we saw in Arizona: Wright was used exclusively as a reliever and only appeared in seven games. He had thrown 5.1 scoreless innings before his last two appearances, where he gave up five runs on six hits in 2.1 innings.

What to take away from it: Not a lot to analyze in Wright's 7.2 AFL innings. He did not seem to struggle with the move to the bullpen after only making one relief appearance over the 2007 and 2008 seasons. In fact, if not for a disastrous final outing (4 runs on 4 hits in .1 inning), his AFL numbers would be much more encouraging. He probably showed enough in Huntsville in 2008 to earn a spot in the Nashville rotation in 2009, but 2010 is probably the earliest he could hope to contribute to the Brewers.

Jeremy Jeffress

What we knew: Jeffress is widely considered the top pitching prospect in the Brewers organization. The Brewers first round pick in 2006, Jeffress has accelerated through the Brewers system pretty quickly, and at age 20 he split the season between Brevard County (4.08 ERA in 79.1 IP) and Huntsville (5.52 ERA in 14.2 IP), despite missing much of the early season after being suspended for testing positive for marijuana.

What we saw in Arizona: Cause for concern sums it up in three words. Jeffress struggled through three starts in Arizona, posting a 12.86 ERA in 7 innings, and after the third outing he complained of shoulder discomfort. The Brewers downplayed the concerns and called them "shoulder fatigue," going so far as to suggest he could return to AFL action. He did not return.

What to take away from it: Jeffress has been young for every level he's competed at, including four starts in Huntsville before his 21st birthday. However, Jeffress recently finished his second full season as a Brewer prospect and his career high for innings pitched is still just 94 and his career low ERA is still only 3.13 (West Virginia, 2007). Jeffress will likely return to Huntsville to start the 2009 season, and a big season there could do a lot to cement his status as an elite prospect.