Way back in the salad days of March, I posted the Big Prediction Contest.  Well, the results are in.  Below you’ll find the various stat categories, the actual result and then the average or plurality prediction from the contest in parentheses.

 

Record – 75-87 (79-83)

Runs Scored – 691 (766)

Runs Allowed – 781 (774)

Batting Average - .269 (.273)

OPS - .717 (.748)

HR – 120 (135)

ERA – 4.48 (4.53)

 

Runs – Gordon (DeJesus)

Doubles – Guillen (Butler)

Triples – DeJesus (Teahen)

Home Runs – Guillen (Gordon)

RBI – Guillen (Guillen)

Walks – Gordon (DeJesus)

Stolen Bases – Gathright (Gathright)

Batting Average  (min 125 AB) – Aviles (Butler)

OBP (min 125 AB) – DeJesus (DeJesus)

SLG (min 125 AB) – Aviles (Guillen)

OPS (min 125 AB) – Aviles (Butler)

 

Wins – Meche (Meche)

Saves – Soria (Soria)

Quality Starts – Greinke (Meche)

Holds – R. Ramirez, Mahay (Gobble)

Innings Pitched – Meche (Meche)

Strike outs – Meche, Greinke (Greinke)

K/9 (min 40 IP) – Soria (Soria)

BB/9 (min 40 IP) – Tomko (Bannister)

ERA (min 40 IP) – Soria (Soria)

 

Tie breaker: Games out of first place – 13 (15)

 

The top 10 out of the 37 entries are as follows:

1.  Gopherballs 45 (won on tie breaker)

2.  RoyalsRetro 45

3.  kcisbetterthanstlateverything 43

4.  loyal2’sdad 41

5.  RoyalsNation 40 (tb)

6.  Firebell 40

7.  Billex Gordler 39

8.  dman126 37

9.  MileHighKCfan 36 (tb)

10. I need more Esteban 36

 

 

Congrats to Gopherballs on his prescience.  The Big Prediction Contest will be back next March, probably with some tweaks.

In an idle moment, I decided to put together a test to see how hardcore of a fan you are.  This is designed to be a generic test, which can be used for your favorite teams of any sport (although it takes some tweaking for college sports).  I want to be clear that this test is for entertainment purposes only.  It isn’t intended to truly show who “real” fans are or to rank people; it's just for fun.  So if you feel like it, take the test and report your score for the Royals and/or any other of your favorite teams.

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A few thoughts on the Royals 66th win:

1. Guillen looks pretty healthy to me now.  He appears to be running the bases and in the field with significantly more speed.  I think his hip is feeling much better.  And does this have anything to do the fact that he's on a hot streak again?  Before tonight's game:

Last 14 days - .389/.411/.611/1.022

Last 28 days - .310/.333/.500/.833

2. Yeah, I think Mark Teahen can play LF just fine.  He made two really good out of zone catches, showing great range.  I have no idea why he was in LF though, with Guillen in RF.

3. So how does a trade of a two-month rental of Dotel for Kyle Davies look right now?  No, Davies won't be throwing eight shutout innings very often, but he sure does look like a decent #5 starter or a good long reliever right now.  Looks like a good pick up to me.  Wladimir Balentien update: .203/.254/.349 (212 AB's)

We’ve had discussions about whether some arbitration eligible players should be tendered a contract offer or non-tendered.  So I thought I’d put together a mega-thread of the players the Royals have to make tender/non-tender decisions on.  As a reminder, for arbitration eligible players, the team must offer the player a contract by the non-tender deadline (mid-December), otherwise he becomes a free agent.  That offer must be at least 80% of the player’s prior year salary.  Arbitration awards are made by evaluating the player’s last two years and comparing him to players with similar performance and service time.

 

Zack Greinke

2007 stats 122 ip, 7-7, 1 save, 3.69 ERA

2008 stats 182.1 ip, 10-10, 3.70 ERA

2008 salary $1.4M

2009 arb. est. $4M

 

My take: Greinke’s relatively low innings pitched in 2007 and lack of wins and saves will keep his arbitration number down (arbitrators love counting stats and aren’t really into advanced metrics).  But even at twice that amount, tendering him would be a no-brainer.

 

Mark Teahen

2007 stats 544 ab, 7 hr, 60 rbi, .285/.353/.410

2008 stats 505 ab, 12 hr, 48 rbi, .246/.309/.382

2008 salary $2.338M

2009 arb. est. $3-3.5M

 

My take: This has already been debated ad nauseam, but I think he’d make a good 4-corner utility man.  He’s overexposed as a starter corner OFer, but he’d be a good bench guy who gets 300-350 AB’s per season.  At roughly $3M, he’s affordable and a good value for the money.  The next year’s non-tender call will be tougher and will probably call for a punt.

 

John Buck

2007 stats 347 ab, 18 hr, 48 rbi, .222/.308/.429

2008 stats 336 ab, 8 hr, 43 rbi, .220/.298/.360

2008 salary $2.2M

2009 arb. est. $3-3.5M

 

My take: Buck has been a roughly average catcher as a Royal and still has some upside.  $3M is still pretty cheap and affordable given the perpetual shortage of good catchers in professional baseball.  As with Teahen, give him one more year and re-evaluate before the next non-tender deadline.

 

Jimmy Gobble

2007 stats 53.2 ip, 4-1, 1 save, 3.02 ERA

2008 stats 27.1 ip, 0-2, 1 save, 10.21 ERA

2008 salary $1.313M

2009 arb. est. $1.75-2.25M

 

My take: Gooble is a good LOOGY.  Hillman refuses to use him as a LOOGY.  Hillman will be the Royals manager in 2009.  Therefore, Gobble shouldn’t return.  Save the $2M and don’t bring in any LOOGY’s or ROOGY’s while Hillman is manager.

 

Brian Bannister

2007 stats 165 ip, 12-9, 3.87 ERA

2008 stats 165.2 ip, 7-15, 5.81 ERA

2008 salary $421K

2009 arb. est. $1.75M

 

My take: He had a good year, then he had a bad year.  It’s worth $1.75M to see if Bannister can make adjustments in 2009 and be an effective starting pitcher.

 

John Bale

2007 stats 40 ip, 1-1, 4.05 ERA

2008 stats 20.2 ip, 0-3, 5.66 ERA

2008 salary $2.2M

2009 arb. est. $1.76M

 

My take: The $1.76M figure is 80% of his 2008 salary, by rule the least the Royals could offer Bale.  He certainly hasn’t earned it.  Bale has good stuff and decent control for a reliever and his peripherals have been much better this year than his ERA, but I still wouldn’t offer him $1.76M.  I’d non-tender him and consider attempting to sign him for considerably less (as long as his contract has an team out-clause if he gets any self-induced injuries).

 

Joey Gathright

2007 stats 228 ab, 0 hr, 19 rbi, 9 sb, 8 cs, .307/.371/.342

2008 stats 272 ab, 0 hr, 19 rbi, 21 sb, 4 cs, .246/.301/.265

2008 salary $427K

2009 arb. est. $750k-$1M

 

My take: Any hope that Joey’s 2007 season raised that maybe he’d figured out how to hit was dashed once and for all this season.  He can’t hit for contact, he draw a walk and he has no power.  He is, however, a good pinch runner and a good defensive replacement for all three OF positions.  Mitch Maier is at least as good of a defensive replacement, an ok pinch runner and has more offensive upside than Gathright.  What I would do is sign Gathright for about $850K and then trade him.  More than a few GM’s would be interested in a very fast, OFer who can play CF, pinch run and steal bases.  The Royals could definitely get a C prospect for Gathright, which would make more sense than non-tendering him.

 

Kyle Davies

2007 stats 136 ip, 7-15, 6.09 ERA

2008 stats 92 ip, 6-7, 4.70 ERA

2008 salary $325K (prorated league minimum)

2009 arb. est. $750K

 

My take: So far this season, Davies has pitched at a level which would be acceptable for a 4th starter (4.70 ERA, 4.62 FIP).  Going forward, I see him as either a decent 5th starter, an effective long reliever/spot starter or perhaps a genuinely good middle reliever.  Regardless, there’s every reason to believe he’d be an asset to major league pitching staff.  At $750K, this isn’t a tough call.

 

Tony Pena, Jr.

2007 stats 509 ab, 2 hr, 47 rbi, .267/.284/.356

2008 stats 206 ab, 1 hr, 11 rbi, .165/.184/.209

2008 salary $405K

2009 est. $405K

 

My take: Pena is not arbitration eligible.  The Royals could keep him for league minimum.  They could even DFA him and outright him to the minors where he could be stashed in the hopes that he could iron out his defensive wrinkles.  Quite frankly, as long as he gets taken off the 40-man roster, I don’t much care if he’s DFA’d or released.  He at least has two tools, which can’t be said for every AAA player (Jason Smith, I’m looking at you).  The only risk in keeping Pena in the organization at all is that if he decreases his defensive mistakes, he really is a great fielder.  And if Moore and Hillman see his spectacular defense in Omaha at some point, they might be tempted to actually call him up.  So, better safe than sorry.  DFA, then release.

 

Brandon Duckworth

2007 stats 46.2 ip, 3-5, 1 save, 4.63 ERA

2008 stats 20 ip, 2-1, 5.85 ERA

2008 salary $600K

2009 arb. est. $850K

 

My take: Ducky will be 33 years old next year.  Anything over $600K for a 9th starter in his 30’s to stash in AAA in case of emergency is too much.  See ya, Ducky, it’s been fun.  I don’t even want to re-sign him for a cheap minor league deal.  If Moore and his people can find cheaper reclamation projects like H. Ramirez and Tejeda, then they don’t need older reclamation projects with less talent.

 

Jason Smith

2007 stats 141 ab, 6 hr, 18 rbi, .199/.235/.376

2008 stats 22 ab, 0 hr, 1 rbi, .182/.182/.378

2008 salary $540K

2009 arb. est. $550K

 

My take: How much is a zero-tool player with horrible stats worth?  If you answered “less than major league minimum,” you are correct.  There was little reason to offer Little Poppy arbitration last year.  There is none to do so this year.  He’s not worth his arbitration value or even a minor league deal.  He’ll be 31 and he’s below replacement level both with the bat and the glove.  A suitable replacement for his limited role can either be found in someone like Angel Sanchez (at least he can field) or off the baseball scrap heap, and for pennies.

 

Luke Hudson

2007 stats 2 ip, 0-1, 18.00 ERA

2008 stats none

2008 salary $475K

2009 arb. est. $450k

 

My take: It is time for Hudson’s injury-filled tenure with the Royals to come to an end.  He’ll be 31 and he can’t stay healthy.  Non-tendering him is the obvious choice.  If they think he’s mostly healthy and still like his stuff, they can sign him to a minor league deal.  Meh.

 

Chin-hui Tsao

2007 stats 24.2 ip, 0-1, 4.38 ERA

2008 stats none

2008 salary $600K

2009 arb. est. $600K

 

My take:  Remember when someone came onto the site in January and made this post about the Tsao signing and how he was going to be one of the Royals best relievers this year (and that Mahay is a replacement level chump)?  It’s kind of like someone breaking into your home naked, shouting that Lyndon LaRouche is America’s savior.  Anyway, very predictably, that didn’t happen.  What did happen is that Tsao lived up to his reputation as a guy who can’t stay healthy and pitched all of 11.1 minor league innings (5.56 ERA).  So of course he won’t be offered arbitration.  If in the offseason it looks like there is a 25% chance or greater that he could be healthy this season, then they can sign him to a significantly discounted minor league deal.

 

I have left Miguel Olivo out of this discussion.  It appears that he is one day short of the service time necessary to become a free agent after this season.  But, as many have speculated, it is likely that the contract he signed with the Royals – which contains a mutual option for 2009 – includes a clause requiring the Royals to waive their rights to him if the option is not picked up by both sides.

 

 

Since I can’t post multiple polls in one post, if you’re interested in voting, just cut and paste this list into your comment and just put a “Yes” beside the player’s name if you’d offer him arbitration or “No” if you’d non-tender him.

 

Zach Greinke

Mark Teahen

John Buck

Jimmy Gobble

Brian Bannister

John Bale

Joey Gathright

Kyle Davies

Tony Pena, Jr.

Brandon Duckworth

Jason Smith

Luke Hudson

Chin-hui Tsao

 

 

 

 

The last Royals Confidence Index (RCI)* for the 2008 season is a season low 4.64. 

 

	Feb. 2008	Mar. 2008	May 2008	June 2008	Sept. 2008	Change
Royals Confidence Index	6.97	6.99	6.43	5.56	4.64	-20%
1. Team	6.9	6.9	6.3	4.7	3.6	-31%
2. Pitching	7.6	7.1	8.0	6.4	5.4	-19%
3. Hitting	5.4	5.6	3.7	3.5	2.7	-30%
4. Defense	7.4	7.1	6.9	6.1	3.6	-69%
5. Dayton Moore	8.1	8.3	7.8	7.2	6.4	-13%
6. Trey Hillman	7.1	7.6	5.8	5.2	4.1	-27%
7. Minor league system	5.7	5.8	5.6	5.8	6.4	9%
8. Future	7.9	7.9	7.8	6.6	6.1	-8%

 

A slow decline in most categories has turned into a steep drop off.  Confidence is down across the board, except for the minor league system, undoubtedly because of a productive draft and the signings of Melville and Hosmer.  The greatest variance was seen in our opinions of the Royals defense and the Royals future (standard deviation = 1.7).  The most agreement was with regard to our feelings on the Royals hitting (SD = 1.0) and pitching (1.1).

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