We are a horrific 4 games under .500 against the other AL playoff contenders at a pathetic 17-21. If we make it to the playoffs, we will get eliminated in the first round. We should just pack it in. Maybe we can get a better draft pick.

We are getting crushed by a clearly better team. A juggernaut that will cruise through the playoffs and obviously is much better than us against contenders.

thought ballon: (hmm.... maybe I should check that out because somebody's gonna check that on a site devoted to thoughtful analysis).  

Red  Sox: 15-19 against AL contenders....................

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/standings/grid

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/how_well_can_we_project_team_defense_and_other_uzr_data/

MGL's early UZR postings show Cabrera at the top of the heap. Also of note, Q isn't quite perfect (although small sample size of course and as I recall his UZR has been fine in the past). Juan was quite good at 2B (it would be interesting to see  Alexei's UZR). These are all per 150 games so Cabrera projects to +36, but of course is not likely to be that valuable defensively at the end of the year. And since defensive stats are best evaluated over a couple of years instead of a couple of months we must bear in mind these are very small sampke sizes.

The White Sox rank 4th in AL in defense according to UZR at +15. And that feels about right to me.

One of my recent favorite websites has become http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

It's byline is "electoral projections done right". Really great analysis and application of a regression model to polls. He developed a demographic regression model that actually predicted NC and IN dem primary better than the polls. I've been visiting the site daily for a couple of months now. The blogger was previously anonymous going under the name Poblano. Today he revealed himself as Nate Silver. Pretty interesting.  

I can't take credit for this one. This is one of of the very few times that I have actually Laughed out Loud online. And since there is at least one on base percentage/ batting average baseball line in here I figured I would share. I think you'll enjoy it.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/13/124649/291/112/475838

Some draft questions at BA.

It seems the top 8 right now are Alvarez, Matusz, Crow, Smoak, Melville, Beckham, Hosmer, Alonso. I'd be happy with any of those 8. Of course it's still early, and that will almost certainly change, but it seems like a relatively deep draft according to Callis. Only Alvarez and Hosmer are represented by Boras so far.

 Q:  Steve from Chicago asks:
Hey Jim. There's great fear in Chicago that the White Sox will continue to not take the best available talent. Their 1st round picks in recent years seem to be conservative picks while passing on much higher ceiling players. Granted they've been picking lower in the draft, but what do you envision them doing with this year's 8th overall pick? Watching the Tigers snag elite talent (some of which the Sox passed on) while not being afraid to go over slot is not making Sox fans very happy about the Sox' recent draft philosophies.  

 A:  Jim Callis: I've heard that fear as well (I live on the North Side up here in Subzeroland). Last year, GM Kenny Williams reportedly mandated landing some multitooled athletes, but they loaded up on pitchers. I don't think you'll see Jerry Reinsdorf start playing the over-slot game, but I do think you'll see the White Sox take a quality player at No. 8. They might be in play for one of the first basemen, like South Carolina's Justin Smoak or Miami's Yonder Alonso, or someone like Skipworth. I'd be a little surprised if Chicago took another pitcher. The Sox system is really bereft of advanced hitters right now.

 Q:  Landy from Hinsdale asks:
White Sox fans believe Kenny Williams is enamored enough with Jordan Danks that there's contemplation about selection him 8th overall. Please reassure me that this won't happen. Please Jim. For the love of Shoeless Joe, say it ain't so...

 A:  Jim Callis: Oh boy. The White Sox did take a late-round flier out of high school and did deal for his brother. And if they wanted Danks, they might have to take him at No. 8 because they won't pick again until No. 84. But I can't see them popping Danks there at all, and he could be available at No. 84. He looks great, but his bat isn't what scouts thought it would be at this point. So, it ain't so . . .

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/chat.php?id=2008021101&rnd=12

Der Komminsk Star over at BTF found some davenport translations for Alexei Ramirez. Pretty optimistic and yet potentially realistic given that Davenport has cuban league at A level. Last three translated OPS .750, .850, .765. Heck even a .700 OPS is better than JO. Jerry Owens has a .639 career OPS. I'd rather the kid get a 1/2 season of AAA under his belt first, but if he dominates in ST (unlikely given his recent lack of ABs) put him in there.

http://baseballprospectus.com/news/images/wbc.CUB.hit

Interesting discussion of Gio vs. DLS over at Sickels site. It's not his opinions but part of the community projection they're doing over there. They ranked DLS the #34 prospect in baseball. Gio hasn't been ranked yet, but will probably wind up top 40 or so. Interestingly the AL Central is noticeably weak with only guys that played very little (Porcello and Moustakas) ahead of DLS.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/12/18/222422/57

I think the oft repeated mantra that we are competing against teams with loaded farm systems no longer applies. Now if we switch that mantra to teams with young talent (esp. Cleveland) it may be accurate. One intersting development is that MCab hasn't been signed long term and I haven't even heard talk of negotiations.  

Last year our LFers hit .256/.332/.399/.731. Of course once Mack was traded it was sig. worse than that. So .249/.342/.428/.770 would be a very nice upgrade. The AL average for LF is .275 .335 .426.

Amazingly our CFers posted an incredibly putrid .247/.308/.320/.628 line. Average for CF is .272 .340 .414 .754. An average everyday CF would probably be a 5 win upgrade (Mike Cameron are you out there?)!

3B? .221/.275/.367/.642 (remember Crede sucked before going under the knife and when Fields went to LF gonzalez and Cintron replaced him). Still, that is amazingly bad. Average is .266 .334 .427 .761 (of course that includes A-rod).

SS: .232 .279 .380 .659

Summing up
SS: .659
3b: .642
CF: .628
LF: .731

That is frankly stunningly bad. If Fields, Quentin and Cabrera meet their projections we're about 10 wins better.

I've noticed a number of posters seem to be assuming that since Joe Torre replaced Damon with Cabrera as CF that Damon is done as a CF. Is this true? Well at this point in the offseason there are essentially 2.5 available good defensive ratings.

UZR (which IMHO is the best, but is proprietary) data for the first half of the season indicates that Damon was exactly average in CF, but it was a small sample size. UZR had Damon at +15 runs above average in 2006. MGL hasn't released his complete 2007 numbers. Here is the data for the first half of the year and 2003-2006:

http://www.tangotiger.net/mgl/

Chone Smith has combined ratings from THT fielding data (RZR) and also ZR adjusted by Chris Dial's method. He has shown that combining these 2 sources correlates best with UZR. He has Damon at +2 (THT data has +5 and ZR adjusted data 0). And these are totals not rates, so with more playing time his totals would go up significantly. His projection for Damon in CF next year is +3.

http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/2007/10/defensive-projections.html#links

So summarizing: Damon was very good in 2006 (as an example Beltran was +16 in '06, Sizemore +21). He was average to above average in '07. His SB stats would indicate that he still has at least above average speed.

There doesn't appear to be any real evidence that Damon would be a below average CF next year. Worst case would appear to be that barring injury he's an average CF. ZIPS projects .279 .348 .408 Average CF's that can post an OBP heavy .750-.800 OPS are valuable.

I'd take him for Crede if the yanks threw in 3 mill a year, put him in CF and at leadoff. He instantly becomes the Sox best leadoff man in quite some time. Put Fields at 3B. Sign Geoff Jenkins (who is actually a really good LF) to a 1 yr. plus option contract.