You've heard it before. "If you take away a few starts, [insert platitude here.]" I guess new Philly GM Pat Gillick was guilty of this trap this weekend when commenting on Ryan Franklin. Craig Burley over at Hardball Times was inspired enough to take a look at a few random players to see what happened to their lines if you removed just their worst 4 starts. Not surprisingly, it made many pitchers look much better than they are.
I decided to do the same thing with the White Sox starters. Rather than concentrating on the Sox pitchers' lines after the bad starts were taken out, I was more interested in what was the deciding factor that made them have the bad starts (i.e poor control, too many HRs, etc.).
Mark Buehrle
W-L IP H HR BB K ERA Real 16-8 236.2 240 20 40 149 3.12 (4 starts) 0-3 25.1 45 2 9 10 8.53 Adjusted 16-5 211.1 195 18 31 140 2.47
Buehrle's poor starts weren't terrible. He gave up just 2 HRs in 25 IP, but his walk rate was up, and he was giving up a ton of hits.
Jon Garland
W-L IP H HR BB K ERA Real 18-10 221 212 26 47 115 3.50 (4 starts) 1-3 23.2 39 7 3 10 10.27 Adjusted 17-7 197.1 173 19 44 105 2.69
Garland actually had better control in his poor starts than in his good ones. He was probably in the zone too much, as he was giving up more HRs and hits, while walking fewer batters. Both he and Buehrle are prone to high H/9 totals in their bad starts because they rely on their defense, and thus the randomness of balls in play.
Freddy Garcia
W-L IP H HR BB K ERA Real 14-8 228 225 26 60 146 3.87 (4 starts) 0-3 23.2 42 6 10 18 10.65 Adjusted 14-5 204.1 183 20 50 128 3.08
Garcia just has your normal, across-the-board worse peripherals in his poor starts. He also had 5 WPs in his 4 poor starts.
Jose Contreras
W-L IP H HR BB K ERA Real 15-7 204.2 177 23 75 154 3.61 (4 starts) 0-3 22 27 6 13 13 10.28 Adjusted 15-4 182.2 150 17 62 141 2.81
Contreras is the only Sox pitcher to maintain a relatively decent H/9 in his poor starts. However, and again not-surprisingly, his bad starts are highlighted by poor control, including 6 WPs.
Javier Vazquez
W-L IP H HR BB K ERA Real 11-15 215.2 223 35 46 192 4.42 (4 starts) 0-4 13 38 7 3 12 21.46 Adjusted 11-11 202.2 185 28 43 180 3.33
WOW! That poor start ERA is incredibly bad. When Vazquez doesn't have it, boy does he gives it up; and he gives it up quickly. With the exception of IP, his poor starts peripherals are remarkably similar to Garland's. Hopefully Cooper and Ozzie can work with Vazquez to fight through those poor starts and grind out some useful innings to save the bullpen.
