clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Rounding up some projections

Baseball Musings' David Pinto has been running some probable lineups through his lineup analysis tool. Today, he plugged in the White Sox, who he projects to have a considerable offensive improvement. The lineup he uses includes both Joe Crede and Josh Fields, but no Carlos Quentin. I don't think it makes a whole lot of difference, because Quentin projects to get on base more than Crede though with a little less power.

His projections for the AL Central are as follows:

Indians: 5.60 R/G
Tigers: 5.58 R/G
White Sox: 5.29 R/G
Twins: 4.87 R/G
Royals: 4.82 R/G

Those are quick and dirty projections which use only 9 starters, so all the teams are likely to come in under those runs/game numbers when they start going to the bench. Even so, I think it's safe to say that's an upgrade from the 4.28 runs/game the Sox scored last year.

Buehrle's monstrous ride
I went another step further, removing Crede and Richar and adding Quentin (ZiPS) and Ramirez (PECOTA) to come up with a lineup which generates 5.40 R/G. Still not enough to compete with the top dogs in the division, but a substantial improvement compared to last season.
* * * * *

Xeifrank has also contributed with a number of different ZiPS-based simulations. First, he had the Sox compete against the other central teams with dubious results. Next, he ran them through their schedule, again dubiously. Finally, he added Egbert, who has much more favorable projections, to the rotation and Alexei Ramirez, who has a bit of an unbelievable PECOTA line, to come up with some reasonable yet still disappointingly mediocre seasons.

* * * * *